Exxon Mobil Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM).
Comprehensive price target analysis for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Note: Horizontal lines have been drawn for the three price targets and extended 30 days into the future (to 2025-11-06). Colors indicate level:
- Low Target (blue): 95.00
- Median Target (orange): 124.50
- High Target (red): 145.00
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: Exxon remains a high-quality integrated energy company with a favorable dividend yield, solid balance sheet, and a constructive valuation, supported by steady cash flows and a compelling capital allocation framework. The stock trades at a mid-teens multiple with a relatively low beta, offering downside protection in volatile energy markets and upside potential as oil demand stabilizes and capital returns remain robust.
- Price outlook: Near-term price target around the median (
$124.50) suggests potential upside from the current price ($114.20). A high-case target of ~$145.00 implies meaningful upside in a constructive energy-price environment; downside risk exists if energy demand softens or macro conditions deteriorate.
Price Level Lines (drawn)
- Low Target: 95.00 (blue) extended to 2025-11-06
- Median Target: 124.50 (orange) extended to 2025-11-06
- High Target: 145.00 (red) extended to 2025-11-06
Valuation snapshot and key metrics Table: Market and performance metrics
- All figures are from the provided data and as of 2025-10-07
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 114.20 |
| Market cap | 486.86B |
| Enterprise value | 514.86B |
| Trailing P/E | 16.22x |
| Forward P/E | 14.51x |
| PEG ratio | N/A |
| Price to book | 1.85x |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 11.83% |
| Return on assets (ROA) | 5.28% |
| Profit margin | 9.40% |
| Gross margin | 31.02% |
| Operating margin | 11.73% |
| Debt to equity | 14.44x |
| Total cash | $14.35B |
| Total debt | $38.99B |
| Dividend yield | 3.50% (five-year avg: 4.32%) |
| Beta | 0.484 |
Analyst consensus & price targets Table: Analyst price targets and coverage
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Target Low Price | 95.00 |
| Target Median Price | 124.50 |
| Current price | 114.20 |
| Number of analysts | 24 |
| Target High Price | 145.00 |
| Target Mean Price | 124.88 |
Recent earnings summary (latest quarter in provided data) Table: Key quarterly figures (latest quarter shown: 2025-06-30)
| Item | Value (USD) |
|---|---|
| Total revenue | 79.48B |
| Gross profit | 17.95B |
| Operating income | 8.91B |
| EBITDA | 16.95B |
| Net income (continuing ops) | 7.08B |
| Diluted EPS | 1.64 |
| Tax rate (for calc) | 0.34 |
| Pretax income | 10.71B |
| Minorities | -0.272B |
| Net income including noncontrolling interests | 7.354B |
| Other notable items | see above data |
EPS trend and revisions EPS Trend (latest quarters and year-over-year context)
| Period | Current | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q (latest) diluted EPS | 1.77155 | 1.75649 | 1.72944 | 1.69881 | 1.67548 |
| +1q diluted EPS | 1.52883 | 1.53873 | 1.56716 | 1.56959 | 1.53992 |
| 0y diluted EPS | 6.66974 | 6.62768 | 6.69269 | 6.66866 | 6.55008 |
| +1y diluted EPS | 7.47460 | 7.45195 | 7.61884 | 7.70292 | 7.57010 |
EPS Revisions (recent sentiment)
| Period | Up in last 7 days | Up in last 30 days | Down in last 30 days | Down in last 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| +1q | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 0y | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| +1y | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Interpretation:
- The latest quarter shows modest positive momentum in EPS versus the prior 30- to 90-day window (0q: Up in 3 of 30 days; no downgrades in the last 7–30 days). The year-ago metrics (0y and +1y) indicate stronger annual EPS levels, consistent with Exxon’s cash-flow strength in buoyant energy markets.
- EPS revisions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, with 0q and 0y periods demonstrating more upgrades than downgrades in the near term, signaling cautious but positive analyst sentiment around the latest results.
Technical analysis highlights (last 60 days)
- 50-day moving average (MA): The latest 50-day MA is approximately 110.9 (as of 2025-10-06). The current price (~114.2) is above the 50-day MA, indicating a positive short-term tilt.
- RSI (14): Latest RSI around 48.7 (mid-to-neutral zone). Not overbought or oversold signal at present.
- MACD (12,26,9): MACD ~0.6 with a slower signal at ~0.9, implying some near-term momentum softness; trend signals currently mixed/neutral.
Current price action context
- Price trades above the 50-day MA, suggesting a constructive near-term bias.
- Support zone (proximal) is around the 110–112 region (near the 50-day MA); a break below this area could reintroduce near-term softness.
- Resistance is manifested near the median target level (~124.5); a break above ~125 could open room toward the high target around 145, depending on energy prices and cash-flow catalysts.
Key risks and opportunities
- Risks:
- Energy price volatility: WTI and broader oil prices drive cash flow, capex, and buyback capability.
- Global macro volatility and demand shocks (recession risk, higher rates affecting capex in energy sector).
- OPEC+ supply adjustments and geopolitical risk impacting profitability and margins.
- Regulatory and ESG considerations potentially affecting capital allocation or sentiment.
- Opportunities:
- Robust free cash flow enabling buybacks and dividend growth, supporting multiple expansion if energy prices stabilize higher.
- Strong balance sheet providing flexibility for capital returns and potential strategic investments.
- Upstream-to-downstream integration advantages and efficiency improvements driving margins.
Earnings quality and margin analysis
- Revenue stability: Total revenue around 79.48B in the latest quarter indicates resilient top-line performance for an integrated major in a cyclical energy market.
- Margin profile: Gross margin ~31%; operating margin ~11.7%; Net margin ~9.4%. These indicate solid profitability with room to expand margins if energy prices improve or costs are managed efficiently.
- Cash and leverage: Net cash position is modest given high capex needs; debt to equity is low by many sector standards (14.4x), and the company maintains a strong cash generation profile for dividends and buybacks.
Technical indicators summary
- 50-day MA: ~110.9 (support nearby; price currently above it)
- RSI: ~48.7 (neutral)
- MACD: 0.6 vs Signal 0.9 (near-term momentum soft)
Price target analysis (short, mid, long-term) Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: Median price of 124.50 (market consensus)
- Justification: Near-term momentum supported by resilient cash flows, ongoing buybacks/dividend support, and the most representative near-term analyst target. The 3-month horizon aligns with the median target and the current level of activity in oil markets.
- Key drivers: Relatively stable energy demand, continued capital returns, and a supportive macro backdrop for energy equities.
- Sensitivity: From current price of 114.20, implied upside ~9.0% to 124.50; downside risk ~-16.7% to 95 if energy dynamics deteriorate.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: Mean price 124.88 (roughly the current median/mean alignment)
- Justification: A one-year view factors in improving energy demand clarity, continued capital discipline, and realistic multiple expansion as the sector transitions to sustainable cash-flow growth through cycles.
- Key drivers: Oil price stability in a favorable range, ongoing share repurchases, dividend stability, and cost-control improvements.
- Sensitivity: With a target near current levels, the upside is modest unless energy prices rise or earnings quality improves materially.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: High price level around 145.00 (bull-case)
- Justification: If oil demand remains healthy and cash flows stay strong, Exxon could realize meaningful upside from a multi-year horizon given continued capital returns, potential restructuring in energy markets, and further efficiency gains.
- Key drivers: Sustained energy demand, favorable energy price environment, advancement of capital allocation strategies (buybacks/dividends), and potential upside from new growth avenues (low-carbon initiatives, LNG, chemical segments).
- Note: Long-term scenarios depend heavily on macro and commodity-price trajectories; 145.00 represents a strong upside case based on the provided high target.
Price targets at a glance (relative to current price)
- Current price: 114.20
- Low target: 95.00 (-16.7% downside)
- Median target: 124.50 (+9.0% upside)
- High target: 145.00 (+27.2% upside)
Investment recommendation
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Rationale:
- Valuation remains reasonable with forward P/E around 14.5x and a favorable balance sheet.
- The stock offers an attractive dividend (3.5%) with potential for dividend stability/growth given strong cash flow, though the yield is below the five-year average (4.32%), which reflects changing capital allocation dynamics.
- Near-term upside to the median target (~9%) is supported by the latest earnings momentum and technical setup (price above the 50-day MA). However, MACD momentum is not strongly bullish, and RSI sits in neutral territory, suggesting patience may be warranted until a clear breakout above the ~125 resistance level materializes.
- Downside risk exists if energy prices soften or macro conditions deteriorate; the drawn support around ~110 and the 50-day MA provides a buffer, but a break below could shift the bias temporarily.
- Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 5–12% on base case with potential upside to 15–20% in a favorable energy-price scenario, plus ongoing dividend yield.
Important notes and references from data provided
- Earnings and EPS context:
- Latest quarter (2025-06-30): Total revenue ~$79.48B; Net income (continuing ops) ~ $7.08B; Diluted EPS ~ $1.64; Tax rate ~34%.
- EPS Trend (latest issues): 0q diluted EPS ~1.77; 7d/30d/60d/90d trends show modest upward trajectory within the last 90 days, consistent with improving near-term earnings momentum.
- EPS Revisions: 0q shows up revisions in the last 30 days (3 upgrades, 0 downgrades), while +1q shows some downgrades in the last 30 days, indicating mixed near-term sentiment but generally constructive for the current quarter.
- Technical setup:
- 50-day MA ~110.9 (last update 2025-10-06); price ~114.2 (as of 2025-10-07), implying a short-term bullish tilt.
- RSI ~48.7 (neutral), MACD ~0.6 with Signal ~0.9 (neutral/slightly bearish cross), suggesting consolidation rather than a strong momentum breakout.
- Valuation snapshot:
- Trailing P/E ~16.22x; Forward P/E ~14.51x; P/B ~1.85x; ROE ~11.8%; Profit margin ~9.4%; Dividend yield ~3.5%.
- Debt to equity about 14.4x; cash ~$14.35B; debt ~$38.99B.
Appendix: Key data points used
- Price targets and analyst data
- Low: 95.0
- Median: 124.5
- High: 145.0
- Current price: 114.2
- Analysts: 24
- Mean target: 124.875
- Earnings: latest quarter 2025-06-30
- Revenue: 79.477B
- Gross profit: 17.947B
- Operating income: 8.911B
- EBITDA: 16.951B
- Net income (continuing ops): 7.082B
- Diluted EPS: 1.64
- Tax rate: 0.34
- EPS trend
- 0q: 1.77155 (current); 30/60/90-day trends show gradual improvement
- 0y: 6.66974; +1y: 7.4746
- EPS revisions by period
- 0q: Up7d=1, Up30d=3, Down30d=0, Down7d=0
- +1q: Up7d=1, Up30d=2, Down30d=4, Down7d=1
- 0y: Up7d=3, Up30d=6, Down30d=4, Down7d=1
- +1y: Up7d=3, Up30d=2, Down30d=4, Down7d=0
- Technical indicators (last 60 days)
- 50-day MA around 110.9 (as of 2025-10-06)
- RSI (14) around 48.7 (latest)
- MACD ~0.6; Signal ~0.9 (latest)
If you’d like, I can export a clean, printable version of this analysis with all tables in a single markdown file, or tailor the price-target scenarios to different energy-price assumptions (bearish, base, bull) and show updated sensitivity tables.