Exxon Mobil Corporation Stock Price Targets

Below is a comprehensive Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) analysis as of 2025-10-10, including the requested price-target horizontal lines drawn on the chart and a detailed a multi-horizon investment thesis.

Note on price-target lines drawn

Low Target: 95.00 (green)
Median Target: 124.50 (blue)
High Target: 143.00 (red)
Time span extended: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (30 days into the future)
Colors:
- Low (support): #2ECC71 (green)
- Median (target/reference): #3498DB (blue)
- High (target/resistance): #E74C3C (red)

Technical note: I used the active price chart tool to draw horizontal lines at 95, 124.5, and 143, extending to 2025-11-09. This provides a clear price-range framework for evaluating near-term dynamics against the longer-term target paths.

Executive Summary

Investment thesis: Exxon Mobil (XOM) remains a high-cash-flow producer with a strong dividend, robust balance sheet, and meaningful buyback opportunities. The stock trades at a modest forward multiple versus peers and benefits from a resilient energy demand backdrop and potential upside from energy-market normalization. The interim line of sight to a median price target around 124.50 and a high target near 143.00 over the next 12 months suggests favorable upside potential, with a downside buffer near 95.0 if energy demand weakens or macro headwinds intensify.
Overall price outlook: Moderately bullish on a 12-month horizon, with potential upside contingent on commodity cycle stability, energy margins, and continued capital-return discipline.

Fundamental Analysis Key metrics (selected, from provided data)

Current price: 112.91
Market cap: 481.36B
Enterprise value: 518.10B
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E: 16.04
- Forward P/E: 14.35
- Price-to-Book: 1.83
- PEG: not provided
Returns and margins:
- Return on Equity (ROE): 11.83%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 5.28%
- Profit margin: 9.40%
- Gross margin: 31.02%
- Operating margin: 11.73%
Leverage and liquidity:
- Debt-to-equity: 14.44x (high-ish leverage by some standards but within a stable, capital-intensive sector context)
- Total cash: ~14.35B
- Total debt: ~38.99B
Dividend: 3.47% current yield (five-year avg. yield ~4.32%)
Beta: 0.484 (lower market beta; indicates relatively lower volatility in broad-market terms)

Table: Selected Fundamentals

Currency: USD
Values reflect the provided data

Metric	Value
Current price	112.91
Market cap	481,363,230,720
Enterprise value	518,101,434,368
Trailing P/E	16.04
Forward P/E	14.35
Price to book	1.83
ROE	11.83%
ROA	5.28%
Profit margin	9.40%
Gross margin	31.02%
Operating margin	11.73%
Debt to equity	14.44x
Total cash	14.35B
Total debt	38.99B
Dividend yield	3.47%
Five-year avg. dividend yield	4.32%
Beta	0.484

Analyst Price Targets

Current price: 112.91
Number of analyst opinions: 24
Target Low / Median / High / Mean:
- Low: 95.0
- Median: 124.5
- High: 143.0
- Mean: 124.83

Table: Analyst Targets

Metric	Value
Current price	112.91
Number of opinions	24
Target low	95.0
Target median	124.5
Target high	143.0
Target mean	124.83

Recent Earnings Summary (from provided quarterly data)

The latest quarter (2025-06-30) shows a resilient revenue base and robust earnings relative to prior periods.
Key items (latest three quarters shown in data):
- 2025-06-30:
  - Total revenue: 79.48B
  - Gross profit: 17.95B
  - EBITDA: 16.95B
  - EBIT: 10.85B
  - Net income (continuing ops): 7.082B
  - Diluted EPS: 1.64
- 2025-03-31:
  - Total revenue: 81.06B
  - Net income (continuing ops): 7.713B
  - Diluted EPS: 1.76
- 2024-12-31:
  - Total revenue: 81.06B
  - Net income (continuing ops): 7.61B
  - Diluted EPS: 1.72
Observations:
- Revenue remained in a stable, high-70s to low-80s billions range quarterly.
- Diluted EPS improved sequentially into 2025-Q2 (1.64 vs 1.76 in Q1 2025), suggesting improving quarter-over-quarter profitability.
- EBITDA/EBIT figures indicate meaningful cash flow and operating leverage.

Table: Recent Earnings (selected quarters)

Quarter (YYYY-MM-DD)	Total Revenue (USDB)	Gross Profit (USDB)	EBITDA (USDB)	EBIT (USDB)	Net Income (Continuing Ops) (USDB)	Diluted EPS
2025-06-30	79.48	17.95	16.95	10.85	7.082	1.64
2025-03-31	81.06	—	—	—	7.713	1.76
2024-12-31	81.06	—	—	—	7.61	1.72

EPS Trend

The EPS trend data provided shows recent quarterly progression and broader year-over-year context.
Current quarter (0q) EPS: 1.81177
- 7 days ago: 1.75649
- 30 days ago: 1.72944
- 60 days ago: 1.69809
- 90 days ago: 1.69257
+1q (prior quarter) EPS: 1.57528
- 7 days ago: 1.53873
- 30 days ago: 1.56716
- 60 days ago: 1.56388
- 90 days ago: 1.54967
0y (trailing year) EPS: 6.71201
- 7 days ago: 6.62768
- 30 days ago: 6.69269
- 60 days ago: 6.66823
- 90 days ago: 6.54573
+1y EPS: 7.46039
- 7 days ago: 7.45195
- 30 days ago: 7.61884
- 60 days ago: 7.70212
- 90 days ago: 7.54645 Interpretation:
The most recent quarter shows a positive uplift in EPS versus the prior quarter (+q vs. 0q). The trailing year EPS is substantially higher than the current quarter due to the seasonality and annual earnings base. The year-over-year (+1y) figures suggest a higher annual earnings base over time, consistent with a company that uses consistent capex discipline and strong cash generation.

EPS Revisions

0q:
- Up last 7 days: 1
- Up last 30 days: 3
- Down last 30 days: 0
- Down last 7 days: 0
+1q:
- Up last 7 days: 1
- Up last 30 days: 2
- Down last 30 days: 4
- Down last 7 days: 1
0y:
- Up last 7 days: 3
- Up last 30 days: 6
- Down last 30 days: 4
- Down last 7 days: 1
+1y:
- Up last 7 days: 3
- Up last 30 days: 2
- Down last 30 days: 4
- Down last 7 days: 0

Interpretation:

Near-term revisions (0q) skew slightly positive (more upgrades than downgrades in the last 30 days).
Medium-term revisions (+1q) show net downgrades in the last 30/7 days, suggesting some concerns in the shorter horizon, but longer-term revisions (+0y, +1y) show more upgrades, indicating improved longer-term sentiment.

Technical Analysis (as of 2025-10-09 data window)

Price action: The stock trades around 112.9 with ongoing positive momentum relative to the 50-day moving average, and the latest 50-day MA value around 111.0 (latest data show MA near 111.0). Price above the 50-day MA is a supportive bullish signal.
50-day Moving Average (MA): ~111.0 (late Sep to early Oct 2025)
RSI (14): ~50.3 (midline neutral; modestly constructive)
MACD (12,26,9): MACD ~0.5 vs. Signal ~0.7 (slightly bearish crossover recently; marginal positive momentum could develop)
Current price vs. MA: Price is modestly above the 50-day MA, indicating a mild near-term upside bias if momentum improves.

Table: Key Technical Indicators (latest)

Indicator	Value (approx)
Current price	112.91
50-day MA	~111.0 (as of 2025-10-09)
RSI (14)	~50.3
MACD (12,26,9)	MACD ~0.5; Signal ~0.7

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Coverage: 24 analysts
Current price: 112.91
Targets:
- Low: 95.0
- Median: 124.5
- High: 143.0
- Mean: 124.83

Key implications:

The median target implies roughly 10-12% upside in 12 months, with the high scenario implying ~26-27% upside in the same horizon.
The current price is about 9-12% below the median target, leaving meaningful upside if the momentum sustains and macro conditions hold.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months): Target around 124.50 (median). Upside ~10-12% from 112.91.
- Drivers: Stabilizing energy demand/margins, continued buybacks, ongoing dividend support, and any positive earnings surprises.
Mid-Term (12 months): Target around 143.00 (high). Upside ~26-27%.
- Drivers: Sustained cash flow strength, potential multiple expansion on earnings stability, capital-return optimization (buybacks/dividends), and a continued favorable energy-services backdrop if oil/gas prices hold support.
Long-Term (3+ years): Price target range 150-170 (reasoned approximation based on steady-state fundamentals, capex discipline, and cash returns)
- Justification and drivers:
  - Valuation framework: If Exxon sustains a forward P/E in the mid-teens and maintains strong FCF conversion, a long-run target in the 150-170 zone could be supported by earnings power and the company’s capital allocation strategy.
  - Cash flow durability: A high cash-flow generation capability supports dividends and buybacks, supporting a higher equity value over time.
  - Energy-market dynamics: A stable or modestly constructive energy demand environment and favorable refining margins could support durable earnings, which can compound into higher intrinsic value over multi-year horizons.

Table: Price Target Scenarios

Horizon	Target (USD)	Upside vs Current (112.91)	Key Drivers
Short-Term (3 months)	124.50	~10-12%	Earnings momentum, buybacks, stable margins
Mid-Term (12 months)	143.00	~26-27%	Cash flow strength, multiple support, capital returns
Long-Term (3+ years)	150-170	~33-50%	Durable earnings, stronger capital allocation, energy-cycle resilience

Key Risks & Opportunities

Risks:
- Energy price volatility and macro headwinds: A sustained downturn in energy prices or weaker demand could compress margins and cash flow.
- Regulatory and environmental scrutiny: As a major integrated energy co., Exxon faces policy risks that could affect returns or capex strategies.
- Commodity-cycle sensitivity: Near-term performance is sensitive to crude and refining margins; any prolonged weakness could weigh on EPS and valuation.
- Debt management: While leverage is not extreme, debt dynamics in a volatile energy environment can constrain flexibility.
Opportunities:
- Cash flow generation and capital returns: Exxon’s strong FCF supports a durable dividend and buyback programs, which can provide downside support and upside leverage as investors reprice cash returns.
- Shareholder value rotation: If the market begins to favor steady, dividend-oriented energy names, XOM could see multiple expansion relative to peers.
- Energy demand resilience: The global energy demand trajectory supports continued volumes and resilience in downstream operations.

Investment Recommendation

Recommendation: Hold
Time horizon: 12–24 months
Rationale:
- The stock trades below the high target (143) but above the low-target (95) with a median target at 124.50, implying a potential 10–12% to 26–27% upside in the near to mid-term depending on energy-market dynamics. The risk/reward is relatively balanced: a solid base-case upside driven by cash flow and capital returns, but near-term macro and energy-market volatility could dampen returns.
Expected return potential over 12–24 months:
- Base-case: ~12–18% upside to the median target in ~12 months, with potential to 26–27% to the high target if catalysts play out.
- Long-run potential could be higher (in a favorable energy-cycle scenario), but that requires macro energy-market stability and continued execution on capital returns.

Appendix: Charted Price Targets (Horizontal Trendlines)

Low Target (95.00) — Extension: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 — color: green (#2ECC71)
Median Target (124.50) — Extension: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 — color: blue (#3498DB)
High Target (143.00) — Extension: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 — color: red (#E74C3C)

Data caveats

All numerical data reflect the provided inputs and the latest available figures in the prompt. Real-world investment decisions should consider updated earnings releases, macroeconomic developments, and market conditions.
The long-term target band is a reasoned, scenario-based extension given the lack of explicit 3+ year consensus numbers in the provided data. It is intended to illustrate potential upside under constructive energy-market conditions and strong capital-return execution.

If you’d like, I can:

Add a more granular earnings-quality analysis (revenue by segment, margin by segment) using the quarterly data.
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