Walmart Inc. Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Walmart Inc. (WMT).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Walmart Inc. (WMT).
Below is a comprehensive Walmart Inc. (WMT) analysis, with the requested price-target drawing completed and a detailed narrative using the data you provided.
Drawing completed
- Price levels drawn as horizontal lines extending 30 days from today (from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09)
- Low Target: 64.00
- Color: #1E90FF (blue)
- Median Target: 115.00
- Color: #FFA500 (orange)
- High Target: 129.00
- Color: #FF0000 (red)
- Low Target: 64.00
Technical line setup
- p1.time: 2025-10-10T00:00:00-04:00
- p2.time: 2025-11-09T00:00:00-04:00
- Ticker: WMT
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: Walmart remains a dominant, defensively positioned retailer with strong cash generation, a robust balance sheet, and ongoing efficiency initiatives. The stock trades at premium multiples (trailing P/E ~38x, forward P/E ~37x) but offers attractive downside protection, a modest dividend yield, and meaningful buyback potential. Near-term momentum is modestly tepid, with the stock trading near its 50-day moving average and ongoing consolidation in sentiment.
- Overall price outlook:
- The analyst consensus implies upside from current levels to a median target of 115 (approx. +13% to 115 and ~+27% to the high 129).
- The mean target (~112.95) suggests roughly ~11% upside to 113 over a 12–24 month horizon, with upside risk if margin discipline and e-commerce improvements accelerate.
- The Low target (64) implies substantial downside in a bear case, but the current core thesis is for steady-to-upside fundamentals driven by cost control, omni-channel growth, and share repurchases.
Fundamental Analysis
- Valuation snapshot (as of 2025-10-10)
- Current Price: 101.77
- Market Cap: 811.4B
- Enterprise Value: 884.3B
- Trailing P/E: 38.40
- Forward P/E: 37.42
- Price to Book: 9.01
- Return on Equity (ROE): 23.38%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 6.99%
- Profit Margin: 3.08%
- Gross Margin: 24.91%
- Operating Margin: 4.39%
- Debt to Equity: 68.72
- Total Cash: 9.43B
- Total Debt: 66.56B
- Dividend Yield: 0.91% (Five-year avg: 1.36%)
- Beta: 0.671
- Financial health takeaways
- Cash vs. debt: Net debt ~57.13B (66.56B debt minus 9.43B cash). Leverage remains substantial but manageable for a retailer with strong free cash flow.
- Margin profile: Modest profit margin (3.08%) with a solid gross margin (24.91%) and cautious operating margin (4.39%), consistent with a high-volume, low-margin retail model.
- Valuation context: The stock trades at premium earnings multiples, reflecting Walmart’s scale, cash generation, and ongoing efficiency program. The yield remains below multi-decade averages but is supported by a steady buyback and cash return profile.
- Balance sheet quality: The company carries meaningful debt, but cash generation power and a strong brand balance sheet support ongoing deleveraging and capital returns.
Earnings Analysis Recent earnings summary (selected quarters)
- Q2 FY2025 (2025-07-31)
- Net Income: 7.026B
- Diluted EPS: 0.88
- Revenue: 177.402B
- EBITDA: 13.575B
- Operating Income: 7.287B
- Q1 FY2025 (2025-04-30)
- Net Income: 4.488B
- Diluted EPS: 0.56
- Revenue: 165.609B
- EBITDA: 10.000B
- Operating Income: 7.135B
- Q3 FY2025 (2025-01-31)
- Net Income: 5.254B
- Diluted EPS: 0.65
- Revenue: 180.554B
- EBITDA: 11.054B
- Operating Income: 7.859B
- Q4 FY2024 (2024-10-31)
- Net Income: 4.578B
- Diluted EPS: 0.57
- Revenue: 169.588B
- EBITDA: 9.977B
- Operating Income: 6.708B
- Q2 FY2024 (2024-07-31)
- Net Income: 4.501B
- Diluted EPS: 0.56
- Revenue: 169.335B
- EBITDA: 10.103B
- Operating Income: 7.940B
EPS Trend (trend indicators)
- Current (0q): 0.6001
- +1q: 0.7258
- 0y: 2.6094
- +1y: 2.9450 Interpretation: Positive momentum in the latest quarterly frame (+1q vs 0q) while trailing year figures show encouraging trend in run-rate EPS, albeit at a high base given Walmart’s multi-year earnings cycle.
EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment)
- 0q:
- Up Last 7 Days: 1
- Up Last 30 Days: 20
- Down Last 30 Days: 3
- Down Last 7 Days: 0
- +1q:
- Up Last 7 Days: 1
- Up Last 30 Days: 26
- Down Last 30 Days: 2
- Down Last 7 Days: 0
- 0y:
- Up Last 7 Days: 1
- Up Last 30 Days: 3
- Down Last 30 Days: 0
- Down Last 7 Days: 0
- +1y:
- Up Last 7 Days: 1
- Up Last 30 Days: 3
- Down Last 30 Days: 1
- Down Last 7 Days: 0 Interpretation: A notable tilt toward upward revisions in the last 30–60 days, indicating improving sentiment around Walmart’s earnings trajectory.
Technical Analysis (last 60 days)
- 50-Day Moving Average (MA): 101.0–101.1 area (latest data around 101.1 on 2025-10-09)
- Current Price: 101.77
- Price vs 50-day MA: Slightly above the 50-day MA, suggesting a marginal near-term bullish tilt.
- RSI (14): ~45.3 (late Sep–early Oct data)
- MACD (12,26,9): MACD near 0.5 vs Signal ~0.7 (bearish MACD cross signal as of early October)
- Interpretation: Price sits near the short-term moving average with neutral to modestly cautious momentum; RSI in the mid-40s implies neither overbought nor oversold; MACD remains modestly negative relative to its signal, suggesting near-term consolidation potential unless catalysts emerge.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current Price: 101.77
- Analysts: 39
- Target High: 129.00
- Target Low: 64.00
- Target Median: 115.00
- Target Mean: 112.95
- Observations: The consensus points to meaningful upside from current levels, with a wide target dispersion reflecting a mix of growth, margin, and macro-risk expectations across coverage.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
- Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 115.0 (median); Upside vs current ~13%. High-end up to 129.0 (~27% upside).
- Justification: Moderated by a stabilizing macro backdrop and Walmart’s ongoing cost-control and omni-channel integration. Short-term catalysts could include better-than-expected comp-store sales or margin discipline and ongoing buybacks. Near-term risk includes macro consumer weakness or competitive pricing pressure.
- Key drivers: improved gross and operating margins from efficiency programs, steady cash generation, potential acceleration in online penetration, and ongoing capital return.
- Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: ~112.95 (mean) or around 113–115 in alignment with the median plus incremental buyback impact.
- Justification: The EPS trend shows positive momentum in the latest quarters with revisions turning more positive, suggesting a sustainable earnings trajectory on a one-year horizon. Valuation remains rich vs. the broader market, so the upside is contingent on continued margin improvement and revenue growth, alongside a stable consumer backdrop.
- Key drivers: margin expansion, continued share repurchases, growth in e-commerce penetration, and ongoing store optimization.
- Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 120–140 range, with 129 as a reasonable high-case anchor.
- Justification: Walmart’s scale, cash-flow durability, and ongoing efficiency program underpin a multi-year growth path. Upside is contingent on continued efficiency gains, sustainable comp-store growth, and successful monetization of e-commerce and omnichannel initiatives. A higher multiple could be supported if operating margins expand beyond current levels through a combination of cost controls and price/mix improvements.
- Key drivers: margin expansion, ongoing capital returns, international/online growth, and re-acceleration of underlying U.S. comp growth.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Key Risks
- Macro demand weakness impacting consumer discretionary spend.
- Competitive pricing pressure from rival retailers and e-commerce players (e.g., online discounting dynamics, private-label pressure).
- Margin pressure from wage growth, supply-chain volatility, and currency risk in international operations.
- High valuation multiple relative to broader market—requires continued earnings resilience to justify.
- Key Opportunities
- Ongoing cost containment, supply chain optimization, and productivity gains.
- Greater leverage of omnichannel (ship-from-store, curbside pickup, and online grocery) to drive sales mix and efficiency.
- Share repurchase program providing incremental upside to per-share metrics.
- Growth in Walmart+ and other loyalty initiatives supporting longer-term customer lifetime value.
Investment Recommendation
- View: Moderate Buy / Hold
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected Return Potential: Approximately 10–15% based on consensus price targets (mean ~112.95 to median ~115) versus a current price around 101.77; upside to the high target could be ~27% if momentum supports a move toward 129.
- Rationale: The stock trades at premium earnings multiples, but Walmart’s durable cash generation, buyback potential, and margin-management advances justify a constructive stance provided the consumer backdrop remains stable. The near-term technical setup shows price near the 50-day MA with neutral-to-moderate momentum, implying a need for a catalyst to realize outsized upside.
Tables: Key numerical data (selected items)
Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 101.77 | As of 2025-10-10 |
| Market Cap | 811.4B | - |
| Enterprise Value | 884.3B | - |
| Trailing P/E | 38.40377 | - |
| Forward P/E | 37.41544 | - |
| Price to Book | 9.006991 | - |
| ROE | 23.375% | - |
| ROA | 6.994% | - |
| Profit Margin | 3.079% | - |
| Gross Margin | 24.91% | - |
| Operating Margin | 4.389% | - |
| Debt to Equity | 68.719 | - |
| Total Cash | 9.431B | - |
| Total Debt | 66.559B | - |
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% | Five-year avg 1.36% |
| Beta | 0.671 | - |
Analyst Consensus Snapshot
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Analysts | 39 |
| Target High | 129.0 |
| Target Low | 64.0 |
| Target Median | 115.0 |
| Target Mean | 112.94872 |
| Current Price | 101.77 |
Earnings Summary (selected quarters)
| Quarter Ending | Net Income (USD) | Diluted EPS | Revenue (USD) | EBITDA (USD) | Operating Income (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 7,026,000,000 | 0.88 | 177,402,000,000 | 13,575,000,000 | 7,286,000,000 |
| 2025-04-30 | 4,487,000,000 | 0.56 | 165,609,000,000 | 10,000,000,000 | 7,135,000,000 |
| 2025-01-31 | 5,254,000,000 | 0.65 | 180,554,000,000 | 11,054,000,000 | 7,859,000,000 |
| 2024-10-31 | 4,577,000,000 | 0.57 | 169,588,000,000 | 9,976,000,000 | 6,708,000,000 |
| 2024-07-31 | 4,501,000,000 | 0.56 | 169,335,000,000 | 10,103,000,000 | 7,940,000,000 |
EPS Trend (per share)
| Period | EPS (Current) | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 0.6001 | 0.6001 | 0.5997 | 0.5729 | 0.5729 |
| +1q | 0.7258 | 0.7258 | 0.7242 | 0.6959 | 0.6955 |
| 0y | 2.6094 | 2.6094 | 2.6075 | 2.6220 | 2.6180 |
| +1y | 2.9450 | 2.9428 | 2.9379 | 2.9368 | 2.9327 |
EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment)
| Period | Up Last 7 Days | Up Last 30 Days | Down Last 30 Days | Down Last 7 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1 | 20 | 3 | 0 |
| +1q | 1 | 26 | 2 | 0 |
| 0y | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| +1y | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
50-Day Moving Average (selected)
| Date | Close | MA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-09 | 101.8 | 101.1 |
RSI and MACD (selected)
| Metric | Latest Value | Key Note |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 45.3 | Neutral momentum (mid-range) |
| MACD (12,26,9) | 0.5 | Slightly below Signal (bearish tilt) |
Price Target Analysis: Implications of the three levels shown
- Low Target (64): The gap to 64 represents a significant downside scenario that would require material deterioration in consumer demand, margin compression, or meaningful multiple contraction. While a useful floor for risk management, it is far from the current earnings trajectory provided in the data.
- Median Target (115): The most defensible near-term target based on consensus, implying roughly 13% upside from the current price. This aligns with the EPS trend improvement and positive revisions observed in the data.
- High Target (129): Represents a bull-case scenario with roughly 27% upside, supported by strong margin discipline, sustained buyback activity, and continued growth in e-commerce and omnichannel monetization.
Key takeaways from data
- The earnings trajectory shows positive quarterly momentum (0q EPS 0.60 rising into +1q ~0.73), supported by a healthier set of revisions in the last 30–60 days.
- Near-term sentiment has been improving, with higher upward revision activity in recent periods, suggesting a potential re-rating if Walmart sustains its margin and revenue growth.
- The analyst consensus points to upside, but the valuation is demanding relative to broader markets; an improving but still cautious technical backdrop (price near 50-day MA, RSI mid-40s, modest MACD signal) implies the stock may need a catalyst to accelerate beyond recent ranges.
Investment Recommendation (summary)
- Recommendation: Moderate Buy / Hold with a 12–24 month horizon
- Expected return potential: ~10–15% base case (to the median/mean targets); higher upside toward 129 if momentum and earnings surprise on the positive side.
- Positioning: Given Walmart’s scale, cash generation, and ongoing efficiency improvements, the risk-reward is favorable for a patient investor, with more modest upside in a slower macro backdrop.
If you’d like, I can add a sensitivity table showing how the upside to median/high targets changes with different EPS growth assumptions, or provide a scenario analysis (base/bull/bear) anchored to the EPS revision trends you provided.