Walmart Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Walmart Inc. (WMT).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Walmart Inc. (WMT).

Here is a comprehensive Walmart Inc. (WMT) analysis as of 2025-10-07, including the requested price-level drawings and a detailed price-target framework.

Note on the price-target lines

  • Horizontal target lines were drawn:
    • Low Target: 64.00 (Blue)
    • Median Target: 115.00 (Orange)
    • High Target: 129.00 (Green)
  • Extension: Each line extends 30 days into the future from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06.
  • Ticker: WMT
  • The drawing was implemented with distinct colors to differentiate levels:
    • Low Target: #1E90FF (blue)
    • Median Target: #FFA500 (orange)
    • High Target: #32CD32 (green)

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Walmart remains a high-quality, cash-generative retailer with defensive demand characteristics, stable dividend, and significant buyback capacity. The stock trades at a premium to book and current earnings multiples, but earnings power and share-repurchase activity support a constructive medium-term path if consumer demand holds and margin discipline persists.
  • Current stance: Neutral-to-bullish on a multi-quarter horizon. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average, RSI is in the mid-40s, and MACD has recently shown constructive momentum. Analysts' targets imply meaningful upside potential from the current level, but significant downside risk remains if consumer spending weakens or margin headwinds intensify.
  • Price targets in view: The Street’s Low/Median/High targets are 64.00 / 115.00 / 129.00, with 39 analysts covering. The current price is 102.70, suggesting upside of roughly 12% to the median and about 26% to the high target, with substantial downside risk if growth deteriorates.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key valuation and balance sheet metrics
    • Current price: 102.7
    • Market cap: 818.8B
    • Enterprise value: 877.7B
    • Trailing P/E: 38.75
    • Forward P/E: 37.76
    • Price to Book: 9.09
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 23.38%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 6.99%
    • Profit Margin: 3.08%
    • Gross Margin: 24.91%
    • Operating Margin: 4.39%
    • Debt/Equity: 68.72
    • Total cash: 6.431B
    • Total debt: 66.56B
    • Dividend yield: 0.92% (5-year avg: 1.36%)
    • Beta: 0.671
  • Cash flow and leverage context
    • The company carries a substantial debt load relative to cash, with net debt (approx. 60B) funded by steady operating cash flow and share-repurchase capacity.
    • Margin profile is modest but stable; the business model benefits from scale, cost controls, and a robust grocery/discount mix.
  • Interpretation
    • valuations are rich on a trailing basis but are supported by Walmart’s durable cash generation and a lower-beta profile relative to growth peers.
    • The risk is that multiple compression could occur if operating margins come under pressure or if consumer volumes deteriorate.

Earnings Analysis

Recent Earnings Performance

  • Most recent quarter (2025-07-31):
    • Net Income from continuing operations: 7.026B
    • Diluted EPS: 0.88
    • Revenue: 177.402B
    • EBITDA: 13.575B
    • EBIT: 10.088B
    • Gross Profit: 44.631B
    • Total Expenses: 170.116B
    • Operating Income: 7.286B
    • Reconciled Depreciation: 3.487B
    • Reconciled Cost of Revenue: 132.771B
  • Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year context are positive in EPS and underlying EBITDA terms, driven by scale and ongoing cost management.

EPS Trends

  • EPS (quarterly and annual context):
    • 0q: 0.60011
    • +1q: 0.72576
    • 0y: 2.60935
    • +1y: 2.94283
  • Observations:
    • EPS has shown sequential upside in the most recent quarter versus the prior quarter (+0.12565 on a per-quarter basis), with a strong trailing year's improvement.
    • The annualized run-rate (0y) suggests a multi-quarter improvement versus the prior year.

EPS Revisions

  • Revisions snapshot (analyst sentiment shifts):
    • 0q: upLast7days = 1, upLast30days = 20, downLast30days = 3, downLast7Days = 0
    • +1q: upLast7days = 1, upLast30days = 26, downLast30days = 2, downLast7Days = 0
    • 0y: upLast7days = 1, upLast30days = 3, downLast30days = 0, downLast7Days = 0
    • +1y: upLast7days = 1, upLast30days = 3, downLast30days = 1, downLast7Days = 0
  • Takeaway:
    • The revisions data indicate a tilt toward upward revisions, particularly in the near term (+1q), suggesting growing confidence in short-term earnings trajectory.

Earnings Quality

  • Revenue growth: Consistent top-line size, with total revenue around 177.4B in the latest quarter, reflecting Walmart’s diversified mix (grocery, general merchandise, and e-commerce).
  • Margins: Gross margin ~25%, operating margin ~4.4%, signaling stable cost control but limited operating leverage given the discount/volume model.
  • Earnings sustainability: EPS improvements driven by scale, efficiency, and buybacks. The normalization of EBITDA and EBIT in the latest quarter supports earnings sustainability, even in a high-competition retail landscape.

Technical Analysis

Current price action and key indicators

  • Price: 102.7 (as of 2025-10-06/07 window)
  • 50-day Moving Average (approximate recent level): around 100–101
    • Observation: Price is trading above the 50-day MA, signaling a near-term positive bias relative to the mid-term trend.
  • RSI (14): mid-40s to low-50s range recently (roughly 44–46 on the latest data)
    • Interpretation: Neutral momentum; not in overbought territory but not deeply oversold.
  • MACD (12,26,9): Positive but modest; recent readings show MACD around 0.6 with a signal near 0.8
    • Interpretation: Mild bullish momentum but not a strong MACD divergence at present.

Key support and resistance levels

  • Support (near-term): ~100–101 (around the 50-day MA)
  • Interim resistance: ~110–112 (psychological and prior consolidation zone)
  • Higher resistance: ~115 (median price target) and ~129 (high target) based on analyst price targets
  • The newly drawn price-target lines (64, 115, 129) visually mark substantial levels to watch beyond the near-term technicals.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Analyst price targets

  • Low: 64.0
  • Median: 115.0
  • Current price: 102.7
  • High: 129.0
  • Mean: 112.82051
  • Coverage: 39 analysts

Interpretation

  • The median target sits roughly 12% above the current price, with a high-case scenario around 26% higher. The low-end target suggests substantial downside risk from a different set of assumptions.
  • A broad consensus exists for modest upside, anchored by Walmart’s cash flow, dividend policy, and buyback capacity.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: ~115.0 (median target)
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Stabilizing consumer demand in the near term and continued cost discipline.
    • EPS trajectory supported by ongoing buybacks and stable margins.
    • Analyst revisions show a tilt toward positive earnings outlook in the near term.
  • Key risks:
    • Macro consumer weakness, input cost volatility, competitive pressures from online peers.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: ~129.0 (high target)
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Potential beat on earnings due to efficiency, e-commerce scale, and continued share repurchases.
    • Realization of margin stabilization as mix shifts more toward higher-margin categories and private-labels.
    • Peer and sector multiple expansion potential could lift Walmart’s multiple.
  • Key risks:
    • Margin pressure from wage costs, logistics, and competitive pricing, plus macro headwinds.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 140.0–150.0 (illustrative Long-Term target range)
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Structural earnings power from continued scale, e-commerce growth, and sustainable free cash flow generation.
    • Ongoing margin management and continued buybacks can support multiple expansion over multi-year horizons.
    • Potential upside from new revenue streams (e.g., more aggressive online grocery, membership-level value propositions, and supply-chain efficiency).
  • Key risks:
    • Structural discounting pressure, evolving competition from food delivery and e-commerce players, and regulatory scrutiny.

Note: The long-term target is a reasoned extrapolation based on Walmart’s scale, cash-generative profile, and historical buyback-driven support, rather than a published consensus target. It reflects the upside potential if margins stabilize and e-commerce yields sustained growth.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks that could impact negatively

    • Consumer spending softness and macro weakness hurting same-store sales growth.
    • Margin compression from wage inflation, supply chain costs, or tariff-related cost pressures.
    • Competitive pressure from pure e-commerce players and regional discount/rival networks.
    • Regulatory and geopolitical headwinds that could affect cross-border and supply chain operations.

  • Key opportunities for upside potential

    • Ongoing share repurchases and efficient capital allocation could lift per-share metrics.
    • Margin normalization as cost-control measures mature and scale effects are realized.
    • Growth in online grocery and fulfillment capabilities, enabling broader customer reach.
    • Strengthened private-label and exclusive-product strategies that improve gross margins.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential:
    • Base case: ~12% to the mid-point target (approx. 115)
    • Upside case: ~25–30% to the high target (approx. 129)
    • Long-term upside: Potentially higher if earnings power and multiples expand, but with material downside risks if consumer demand weakens or margins deteriorate.
  • Rationale:
    • Walmart’s defensive profile and strong cash generation support a constructive stance, but valuation remains elevated relative to broader market averages, and near-term macro risks could dampen upside momentum.
    • The mix of robust near-term EPS momentum, positive revisions, and a supportive balance sheet underpins a conservative to moderate upside path.

Price Target Summary Table

  • Key numbers from the data:

    • Current Price: 102.7
    • Low Target: 64.0
    • Median Target: 115.0
    • High Target: 129.0
    • Number of Analysts: 39
    • Target Mean: 112.82051

  • Analyst Targets vs. Current Price (at a glance)

    • To Median: 115.0 (about 12% upside)
    • To High: 129.0 (about 26% upside)
    • To Low: 64.0 (about -38% downside)

Important data references used in this analysis

  • Price targets and analyst coverage data:
    • Low: 64.0, Median: 115.0, High: 129.0; Current Price: 102.7; Analysts: 39; Target Mean: 112.82051
  • Earnings summary and EPS data:
    • Recent quarter (2025-07-31): Net Income 7.026B; Diluted EPS 0.88; Revenue 177.402B; EBITDA 13.575B; EBIT 10.088B; Gross Profit 44.631B
    • EPS Trend: current 0.60011; +1q 0.72576; 0y 2.60935; +1y 2.94283
    • EPS Revisions: near-term uplift signals in 0q and +1q revisions; counts of upward revisions dominate recent periods
  • Technical indicators:
    • 50-day MA around 100–101; RSI in the 40s–50s; MACD modestly positive

Appendix: Horizontal Price Target Lines Plotted

  • Low Target line plotted at 64.00 (Blue) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target line plotted at 115.00 (Orange) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • High Target line plotted at 129.00 (Green) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

If you’d like, I can:

  • Extend the price-target analysis to scenarios under different macro assumptions (e.g., a sharper recession or a stronger consumer recovery) and show how that affects the relative upside/downside.
  • Add a more granular chart-based narrative around the 50-day MA crossovers, RSI turning points, and MACD histograms aligned with the earnings cadence.
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