Union Pacific Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).

Back to Analysis Hub

Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).

Here is the comprehensive analysis for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), updated with the requested horizontal price-target trendlines and a thorough fundamental, earnings, technical, and price-target view. Per your instruction, I’ve drawn three horizontal lines on the price chart for Low, Median, and High targets, extending 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-10).

Price-target trendlines drawn

  • Low Target: $213.00 (green) extended to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target: $262.00 (blue) extended to 2025-11-09
  • High Target: $298.00 (orange/red) extended to 2025-11-09

Notes on the drawing:

  • Time anchors: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • Ticker: UNP
  • Colors: Low = #2E8B57 (green), Median = #1E90FF (blue), High = #FF4500 (orange/red)

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: UNP remains a high-quality, cash-generative railroad operator with solid margins and a favorable competitive position in North American freight. With a diversified revenue base, durable demand for freight transport, and a track record of cost discipline, UNP should continue to generate strong earnings power and cash flow. The current price sits above the 50-day moving average, supported by improving profitability metrics, but the stock is in a zone where multiple targets (mean/median and high) imply meaningful upside if demand and pricing momentum persist.
  • Overall price outlook: Mild-to-moderate upside near-term to the median price target around 262, with potential upside toward the 298 high target if macro freight demand improves and pricing power remains intact. The price currently trades around 231–232, implying roughly 13% to median and up to ~29% to the high target, based on analyst data.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and financials (selected metrics)
    • Current price: 231.54
    • Market cap: 137.33B
    • Enterprise value: 170.85B
    • Trailing P/E: 20.10
    • Forward P/E: 19.12
    • Price-to-Book: 8.45
    • ROE: 42.36%
    • ROA: 9.11%
    • Profit margin: 28.43%
    • Gross margin: 55.89%
    • Operating margin: 41.26%
    • Debt-to-equity: 208.86x (very high leverage, reflecting industry capital intensity and asset-heavy balance sheet)
    • Total cash: 1.08B
    • Total debt: 33.96B
    • Dividend yield: 2.37%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 2.16%
    • Beta: 1.07
  • Commentary: UNP trades at a solid multiple relative to its earnings with robust margins and ROE. The debt-to-equity ratio is elevated, driven by the capital-intensive nature of rail infrastructure and rolling stock, though enterprise cash flow generation historically supports serviceability and capital returns. The current dividend is attractive for income-oriented investors, and the 50-day MA trend (below) suggests a constructive medium-term trend as price remains above the MA.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Performance (selected highlights from the earnings data)
    • 2025-06-30 (Q2 2025): Total revenue 6.154B; Gross profit 2.844B; Operating income 2.525B; EBITDA 3.261B; Net income 1.876B; Diluted EPS 3.15
    • 2025-03-31 (Q1 2025): Total revenue 6.027B; Gross profit 2.730B; Operating income 2.371B; EBITDA 3.059B; Net income 1.626B; Diluted EPS 2.70
    • 2024-12-31 (Q4 2024): Total revenue 6.121B; Gross profit 2.806B; Operating income 2.593B; EBITDA 3.199B; Net income 1.762B; Diluted EPS 2.91
    • 2024-09-30 (Q3 2024): Total revenue 6.091B; Gross profit 2.777B; Operating income 2.416B; EBITDA 3.105B; Net income 1.671B; Diluted EPS 2.75
    • 2024-06-30 (Q2 2024): Total revenue 6.007B; Gross profit 2.736B; Operating income 2.400B; EBITDA 3.099B; Net income 1.673B; Diluted EPS 2.74
    • 2024-03-31 (Q1 2024): Total revenue 6.007B; Gross profit 2.736B; Operating income 2.400B; EBITDA 3.099B; Net income 1.673B; Diluted EPS 2.74
  • EPS Trends
    • 0q (most recent quarter): EPS 2.979 (vs 2.983 seven days ago; essentially flat QoQ)
    • +1q: EPS 3.009
    • 0y (TTM/LTM context): EPS 11.796
    • +1y: EPS 12.692
    • Interpretation: The EPS level shows a modest QoQ uptick into Q2 2025, with a multi-quarter upward trajectory in the trailing period. The LTM baseline around 11.8–12.7 indicates solid annual profitability and a steady earnings base.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q: UpLast7days = 1; UpLast30days = 2; DownLast30days = 2; DownLast7Days = 1
    • +1q: UpLast7days = 0; UpLast30days = 0; DownLast30days = 2; DownLast7Days = 2
    • 0y: UpLast7days = 0; UpLast30days = 1; DownLast30days = 2; DownLast7Days = 2
    • +1y: UpLast7days = 0; UpLast30days = 1; DownLast30days = 3; DownLast7Days = 2
    • Interpretation: The revisions data show mixed sentiment with a tendency toward recent downgrades in the near-term revisions (especially for the +1q and +1y vintages). Short-term upgrades exist but are not dominant; this suggests some caution in near-term earnings acceleration, though actual reported results have remained robust.
  • Earnings Quality
    • Revenue stability: Total revenue around 6.0–6.15B across the quarterly sequence, demonstrating resilient demand.
    • Margins: Gross margin ~55.9%, operating margin ~41.3%, net margin ~30% in the latest quarter, signaling high profitability for a rail operator.
    • Cash flow proxy: EBITDA of ~3.2B in the latest quarter supports strong cash flow potential, though capital intensity remains high (debt load is substantial).

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action
    • Last close: ~231.54
    • Price is above the 50-day moving average (50-day MA ~223.8 as of 2025-10-09), indicating a positive intermediate-term tilt.
  • Moving averages
    • 50-day MA around 223–226 range in the recent window; price sits meaningfully above MA, suggesting positive price momentum but potential near-term resistance near the target lines.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI around 69.6 (near overbought territory but not extreme). This supports continued upside with caution for a pullback if momentum wanes.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • MACD value around 3.4 with a close-to-healthy positive gap over the signal line (~3.3). This reinforces the current bullish momentum, with a caveat that MACD can contract if price consolidates.
  • Key technical read
    • Current price sits in a constructive zone above the 50-day MA, with bullish momentum but elevated RSI suggests monitoring for any near-term pullbacks or consolidation before extending gains toward the 262–298 target zone.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current consensus and coverage
    • Current price: 231.54
    • Number of analysts: 25
    • Target High: 298.0
    • Target Low: 213.0
    • Target Median: 262.0
    • Target Mean: 261.2
  • Implication
    • Median target implies ~13% upside to the current price
    • High target implies ~29% upside potential
    • The mean target (~261.2) is approximately 12.9% above the current price
  • Potential catalysts
    • Structural freight demand volumes and pricing power
    • Ongoing freight market recovery or stabilization
    • Share repurchase activity and capital allocation efficiency
    • Potential macro improvements in the US economy driving rail volumes
    • Continued progress on efficiency and margin expansion

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: around the Median (262) to the Mean (261.2) as near-term momentum persists
    • Justification: Q2 2025 results showed stronger quarterly EPS and FCF generation; margins remain robust; current price is above the 50-day MA; near-term catalysts include continued freight demand resilience and potential modest multiple expansion.
    • Key drivers: quarterly earnings beat risk, favorable freight demand, capacity utilization, pricing discipline, and buyback activity.
    • Upside vs current: ≈13%–14%
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: toward the Median/Mean range around 262–270, with risk-adjusted upside potentially approaching the high 280s if operating leverage, pricing power, and rail volumes hold steady
    • Justification: The company demonstrated solid profitability with high margins; the stock trades at a forward P/E around 19x; if volumes stabilize and pass-through pricing continues, earnings power should sustain, supporting multiple expansion toward the high-260s to low-280s range.
    • Key drivers: freight demand stability, pricing power, cost control, and continued share repurchases; macro freight cycles could extend the upside.
    • Upside vs current: ~13%–20% (with upside risk to the high-290s if momentum broadens)
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: High-end case around the 298 level, depending on sustained productivity gains, capital allocation, and rail network efficiency; mid-to-low 260s baseline remains plausible if macro headwinds emerge
    • Justification: Structural barriers to entry in rail logistics and the value of network effects could support durable margins and earnings growth, enabling multiple expansion. The high target (~298) reflects a potential scenario where demand catalysts and pricing power persist through a cycle.
    • Key drivers: long-run freight demand growth, efficiency improvements, capacity expansions, and disciplined capital allocation.
    • Upside vs current: ~29% to high target; potentially higher if secular tailwinds persist and the market re-rates the stock.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Elevated debt load and interest-rate sensitivity; debt-to-equity is high, and rising rates could pressure interest expense and cash flow.
    • Exposure to macro freight cycles; a slowdown in consumer/durables demand could reduce volumes and pricing momentum.
    • Regulatory and environmental considerations that affect rail capacity or service costs.
    • Potential competition from other transport modes (truckload, intermodal, etc.) depending on rate dynamics.
  • Key opportunities
    • Stable, high-margin operations and strong cash flow generation support continued share repurchases and dividend growth.
    • Pricing discipline and efficiency improvements could sustain margins even in cyclical downturns.
    • Continued network optimization and capital allocation efficiency can improve ROIC and long-term earnings power.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to a Moderate-Bullish stance with a longer-term upside potential.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • The stock trades above the 50-day MA with constructive technical setup and a bullish MACD, but RSI near overbought levels suggests some consolidation could occur in the near term.
    • The 3-month price target around 262 and the mean/median targets imply ~13%+ upside to the current price, with substantial upside to the high target (≈29%).
    • The EPS trend shows solid growth QoQ and a strong trailing base, but EPS revisions show a mix of upgrades/downgrades, warranting a cautious stance for aggressive deployment while still offering upside as earnings quality remains robust.
    • Given the leverage in the balance sheet, investors should monitor debt dynamics and capex/DSO/DSI trends as catalysts for sustained upside.
  • Return potential: Approximately 10–15% in the next 12–24 months under base case, with upside potential toward 25–30% if freight demand and pricing momentum sustain and multiple expansion occurs.

Price-Target Data Tables

  • Analyst consensus and price targets

    • Current price: 231.54
    • Number of analysts: 25
    • Target Low: 213.00
    • Target Median: 262.00
    • Target High: 298.00
    • Target Mean: 261.20

  • Earnings and selected metrics (selected quarters)

    • Quarter (Date) | Total Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | EBITDA | Net Income | Diluted EPS
    • 2025-06-30 | 6,154,000,000 | 2,844,000,000 | 2,525,000,000 | 3,261,000,000 | 1,876,000,000 | 3.15
    • 2025-03-31 | 6,027,000,000 | 2,730,000,000 | 2,371,000,000 | 3,059,000,000 | 1,626,000,000 | 2.70
    • 2024-12-31 | 6,121,000,000 | 2,806,000,000 | 2,593,000,000 | 3,199,000,000 | 1,762,000,000 | 2.91
    • 2024-09-30 | 6,091,000,000 | 2,777,000,000 | 2,416,000,000 | 3,105,000,000 | 1,671,000,000 | 2.75
    • 2024-06-30 | 6,007,000,000 | 2,736,000,000 | 2,400,000,000 | 3,099,000,000 | 1,673,000,000 | 2.74
    • 2024-03-31 | 6,007,000,000 | 2,736,000,000 | 2,400,000,000 | 3,099,000,000 | 1,673,000,000 | 2.74

Key Takeaways

  • The horizontal lines drawn at 213, 262, and 298 provide clear reference points for traders and investors: potential support at 213, a near-term central target at 262, and a higher-resistance/target at 298.
  • The stock shows constructive momentum with a healthy margin structure and robust cash flow potential, but revisions are mixed in the near term, and debt load remains a critical risk factor to monitor.
  • The median target implies meaningful upside from here (~13%), with substantial upside risk-to-reward if macro freight demand and pricing power sustain.

If you’d like, I can:

  • Update these targets with any new broker notes or earnings releases as they come in.
  • Add a BI-style sensitivity analysis showing how the price targets shift with changes in revenue, margins, or debt levels.
  • Export a more detailed table of quarterly cash flow metrics and capex expectations.
Chart is loading...