Union Pacific Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).
Price Target Analysis for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
Executive Summary
Union Pacific (UNP) exhibits a strong fundamental profile with a current trading price around $225.3. Its valuation metrics such as a P/E ratio of approximately 19.6 and a solid dividend yield of 2.45% indicate a relatively attractive entry point within the railway sector. The corporate financials show healthy margins and a manageable debt level, supported by positive earnings momentum demonstrated by EPS trends and revisions. Technical indicators suggest that the stock is consolidating near key support levels, with a positive long-term outlook given the improved trend measures.
Fundamental Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $133.6B |
| Enterprise Value | $166.7B |
| Trailing P/E | 19.6 |
| Forward P/E | 18.6 |
| Price-to-Book | 8.22 |
| Return on Equity | 42.4% |
| Profit Margins | 28.4% |
| Debt-to-Equity | 209% |
| Total Cash | $1.08B |
| Total Debt | $33.96B |
| Dividend Yield | 2.45% |
| Beta | 1.05 |
These metrics suggest UNP is a well-managed company with strong profitability, though its high debt ratio warrants cautious optimism.
Earnings Analysis
- Recent Earnings: Consistent net income (~$1.87B), with EBITDA stability indicating operational robustness.
- EPS Trends: Slight fluctuations observed but generally stable, with current EPS around 3.02.
- EPS Revisions: Mixed recent sentiment, with more upward revisions (+6 in past 7 days, +9 in past 30 days) than downward revisions, signaling analyst confidence.
- Earnings Quality: Revenue has shown resilience, margins are healthy, with stable profit margins supporting steady earnings.
Technical Analysis
- Current Price Action: Near the 50-day moving average (~$226.8), indicating potential support.
- Moving Averages: Slightly upward trending, supporting medium-term stability.
- RSI: Currently at 61.3, suggesting room for upward movement before overbought.
- MACD: Positive and trending upward, confirming bullish momentum.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $225.3 |
| Target High | $294.0 |
| Target Median | $265.0 |
| Target Low | $213.0 |
| Number of Analysts | 25 |
The consensus points toward moderate upside, with potential catalysts including economic recovery in freight traffic and strong volume growth.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: ~$213
- Justification: Slight correction expected due to near-term technical fluctuations; support at current levels.
- Drivers: Technical consolidation, macroeconomic risks.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: ~$265
- Justification: Based on current analyst median estimate, with earnings growth and sector momentum.
- Drivers: Improving freight volume, operational efficiencies.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: ~$294
- Justification: Reflects optimistic sector recovery, sustained earnings growth, and valuation uplifts.
- Drivers: Infrastructure investments, technological innovations, systemic sector expansion.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Risks: Rising debt levels, economic downturns, freight demand volatility.
- Opportunities: Infrastructure stimulus, digital transformation, strategic acquisitions.
Investment Recommendation
- Position: Hold to buy for long-term growth.
- Time Horizon: 12-24 months.
- Expected Return: Approximately 17% to 31%, depending on sector dynamics and earnings trajectory.
The drawn lines on the chart visually encapsulate these targets:
- Support: $213 (green line)
- Median Target: $265 (blue line)
- High Target: $294 (red line)