Union Pacific Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Union Pacific Corporation (UNP).
Here is a comprehensive, data-driven view on Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) as of 2025-10-07, including the requested price level drawings and a detailed price target analysis.
Note on price level drawing
- Drawn horizontal trendlines for the specified price targets (Low, Median, High):
- Low Target: 213.00 (green)
- Median Target: 267.00 (orange)
- High Target: 294.00 (red)
- Each line extends 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06).
Technical note: The lines have been plotted in the chart with the colors indicated above.
Executive Summary
- UNP remains a high-quality, pricing-power dependent rail operator with solid margins and a robust cash-generation profile.
- The stock trades around 237.41 and sits above its 50-day moving average, indicating short-term bullishness, but the RSI has recently surged above 90, signaling overbought conditions and potential near-term pullback risk.
- Market optimism is reflected in analyst coverage (25 analysts) and a consensus target range (213–294) with a mean target of about 260.44, suggesting meaningful upside from today’s price over the next 12 months.
- Key earnings drivers include resilient operating margins, steady revenue progression, and a strong EBITDA base, though leverage remains substantial.
Fundamental Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 237.41 |
| Market cap | 140.81B |
| Enterprise value | 173.31B |
| Trailing P/E | 20.63 |
| Forward P/E | 19.60 |
| PEG ratio | N/A |
| Price to book | 8.66 |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 42.36% |
| Return on assets (ROA) | 9.11% |
| Profit margins | 28.43% |
| Gross margins | 55.89% |
| Operating margins | 41.26% |
| Debt to equity | 208.86 |
| Total cash | 1.08B |
| Total debt | 33.96B |
| Dividend yield | 2.33% |
| Five-year avg dividend yield | 2.16% |
| Beta | 1.07 |
- Observation: UNP shows strong profitability and margins, but it carries a high debt-to-equity ratio and relatively modest cash on hand versus debt. The strong ROE and generous dividend support an income-oriented investor, but the leverage warrants attention to balance-sheet risk and interest expense pressure in slower growth environments.
Earnings Analysis
Recent Earnings Summary
- Normalized EBITDA (latest reported period): 3.261B
- EBITDA (latest): 3.261B
- Operating income: 2.525B
- Net income (continuing operations): 1.876B
- Diluted EPS: 3.15
- Basic EPS: 3.16
- Total revenue: 6.154B
- Tax rate for calculations: ~18.9%
- Key drivers: stable gross margin around 55.9%, operating margin around 41.3%, and healthy EBITDA indicate strong operating leverage despite a high debt load.
Key figures (latest period, 2025-06-30):
- Normalized income: 1.876B
- Net income: 1.876B
- Diluted EPS: 3.15
- Revenue: 6.154B
- EBITDA: 3.261B
- Operating income: 2.525B
- Gross profit: 2.844B
EPS Trend
| Period | Current | 7 days ago | 30 days ago | 60 days ago | 90 days ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 2.9831 | 2.9871 | 2.9889 | 2.9908 | 2.9596 |
| +1q | 3.0068 | 3.0214 | 3.0295 | 3.0339 | 3.0095 |
| 0y | 11.7976 | 11.8108 | 11.8136 | 11.7889 | 11.5317 |
| +1y | 12.7562 | 12.8361 | 12.8638 | 12.8918 | 12.7742 |
- Interpretation: The near-term quarterly EPS (0q) shows a slight positive drift vs 7/30/2024, while the +1q figure indicates continued strength. Annual EPS (0y) is around 11.80, with a projected +1y around 12.76. The trajectory suggests modest growth in the near term, with a higher baseline for next year.
EPS Revisions
| Period | Up Last 7 days | Up Last 30 days | Down Last 30 days | Down Last 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| +1q | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 0y | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| +1y | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
- Interpretation: Near-term revisions show a modest number of upward revisions for 0q in the last 7/30 days, but longer-horizon revisions tend to be more negative in aggregate. This suggests some mixed sentiment around multi-quarter horizons, though near-term momentum remains supported by earnings and margins.
Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)
-
50-day Moving Average (MA): 223.3 (latest reading). Current price: ~237.4; price sits roughly 14 points above the 50-day MA, indicating a positive short-term trend.
-
RSI (14): About 92.6 (latest reading), signaling overbought conditions and potential for a pullback in the near term.
-
MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD 4.3 vs Signal 3.0, signaling continued bullish momentum, though the overbought RSI warns of a possible consolidation.
-
Interpretation: The stock is in a bullish phase with a clean upside above the 50-day MA, but the RSI at elevated levels suggests a pullback risk or a need for a pause/correction before further upside.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 237.41 |
| Target Low | 213.0 |
| Target Median | 267.0 |
| Target High | 294.0 |
| Target Mean | 260.44 |
| Number of Analysts | 25 |
- Interpretation: The mean target near 260.44 indicates an upside of roughly 9% from current levels, while the median target at 267 implies more muted growth in the intermediate term. The high target at 294 suggests some upside scenarios embedded in the bullish case. With 25 analysts covering UNP, the breadth of coverage supports a credible consensus view.
Key catalysts cited by analysts typically include freight/volume trends, pricing discipline, efficiency gains, capex plans, and broader macro-cycle developments impacting rail demand.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target range: 260–267 (central: 267)
- Justification: Sustained earnings momentum and current analyst mean target imply 9–12% upside in the near term; improving operating leverage and resilient volumes support a constructive view. Stock momentum and weak near-term RSI risk are offset by robust margins and a strong EBITDA base.
- Key drivers: Q2–Q3 earnings trajectory, stable freight volumes, continued efficiency improvements, and buy-side expectations reflected in the mean/median targets.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target range: 267–294
- Justification: As earnings compound and the stock remains rated by analysts at a favorable multiple, the 12-month targets align with continued margin stability and revenue growth, potentially lifting UNP toward the high end of the current target spectrum.
- Key drivers: EBITDA/operating income resilience, revenue growth, and potential multiple expansion from a high-quality rail operator with steady cash generation.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target range: 320–360 (base case); 360–420 (bull case)
- Justification: If earnings continue to grow at a mid-single-digit to low-double-digit rate and if the market assigns a higher multiple to a structurally advantaged, financially robust asset-light-to-mid-heavy rail network, UNP could trend toward the upper end of a multi-year range. This would require discipline on debt management, continued efficiency gains, and secular rail demand resilience.
- Key drivers: Sustained EPS growth, favorable pricing power, ongoing capital returns (dividends and buybacks), potential efficiency improvements, and a stable macro environment that supports durable freight cycles.
Notes:
- The exact long-term target range is inherently more uncertain given the multi-year horizon and macro variability, but it is anchored by the current earnings trajectory (0y to +1y EPS path) and a plausible multiple expansion scenario as UNP maintains strong margins and cash generation.
- Investors should monitor the debt level and interest expense given the high debt-to-equity ratio (208.86) alongside growth opportunities from operational efficiency and network scale.
Table: Price Target Summary
| Horizon | Target Range | Central Target / Key Point | Primary Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (3 months) | 260–267 | Central target ~267 | Near-term earnings momentum, margins, analyst consensus |
| Mid-Term (12 months) | 267–294 | Median target 267; High 294 | Continued earnings growth, multiples support, freight demand strength |
| Long-Term (3+ years) | 320–360 (base); 360–420 (bull) | Long-run upside if EPS growth and multiples expand | EPS growth, cash flow, capital returns, macro rail demand stability |
Risk/Opportunity Snapshot
- Risks:
- Elevated debt load and interest expense pressure in a rising-rate environment.
- Near-term overbought conditions (RSI ~92) suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation.
- Potential macro headwinds (industrial activity slowdown, freight volumes volatility).
- Opportunities:
- Durable operating margins and strong cash generation support ongoing dividends and buybacks.
- Pricing power and network advantages can yield sustainable EPS growth.
- Positive earnings revisions in the near term could support multiple expansion if growth trends persist.
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: Hold
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected Return Potential: ~5–12% in the next 12–24 months, with upside risk to 12–20% if earnings momentum sustains and multiple expansion occurs.
- Rationale: The stock trades at a reasonable forward multiple (Forward P/E ~19.6) given solid profitability and cash generation, but near-term risk signals (RSI overbought) and leverage considerations argue for a cautious stance. The current price target suite implies meaningful upside over the next 12 months (mean target ~260 vs price ~237), with longer-term upside contingent on continued earnings growth and favorable market multiples.
Key takeaways for UNP
- The three horizontal targets (213, 267, 294) have been plotted as requested and serve as potential supports/resistances around downside risk (213) and upside expectations (267–294) based on analyst targets.
- The fundamental and earnings data indicate solid profitability and cash generation with a very strong ROE, but leverage remains a notable risk factor.
- Technicals show a bullish trend in the medium term but indicate overbought conditions in the near term, suggesting a potential pause or pullback before continuing higher.
If you’d like, I can add a sensitivity table showing how different EPS growth and P/E multiple scenarios affect the long-term target, or expand the “Catalysts” section with more granular near-term drivers.