UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Technical Analysis & Key Levels

UNH Technical Analysis – 2025-09-22

Current price and context

Current Price: 336.69
Near-term momentum: The name has staged a counter-trend rally from late July lows into September, pushing through the 300s and into the mid-330s. RSI has been elevated into the 70s–80s range on recent bursts, signaling near-term overbought risk. The price sits above the near-term support of the 50-day average, but remains well below the 200-day line, indicating the longer-term trend remains mixed/soft rather than bullish. MACD remains positive but shows signs of base-building rather than a strong expansion.

Summary Snapshot

Overall Score (0–20): 11 (Hold)
Rationale: Near-term bullish momentum is evident with price strength and positive MACD, but the longer-term trend remains capped by the distant 200-day average; RSI overbought conditions and a lack of sustained breakout above key resistance temper the upside. A close above ~360 would shift the bias, while a break below ~270 would undermine the rally.
Key Levels:
- Support 1 (S1): 245
  - Rationale: Clear near-term floor observed in late July/early August; multiple touches around the mid-240s-250s region.
  - Draw forward: p1 start 2025-08-07, p2 2025-11-15
- Support 2 (S2): 270
  - Rationale: Secondary trough area that contained the pullback in August; potential base if price softens.
  - Draw forward: p1 start 2025-08-15, p2 2025-11-23
- Resistance 1 (R1): 360
  - Rationale: Upper boundary of recent rally; touched/approached in September; a decisive close above would signal a stronger breakout.
  - Draw forward: p1 start 2025-09-18, p2 2025-12-27
- Resistance 2 (R2): 350
  - Rationale: Interim pivot near the upper trading range; acted as a ceiling before the final push to 360.
  - Draw forward: p1 start 2025-09-12, p2 2025-12-21
Near-Term Outlook:
- Bullish triggers: Close above 360 on strong volume, with a follow-through day; then target 380–400 as initial upside lane.
- Bearish triggers: Break below 270 with volume confirmation, targeting 245 and then the 52-week low around 233. A break of 260–270 zone could invite a re-test of 245.

Technical Analysis

Short-to-medium term: Price has formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the late July trough, signaling a bullish counter-trend move within a broader consolidation.
Longer-term trend: The stock remains well below the 200-day average, indicating the dominant trend remains down/sluggish; the recent rally needs a sustained move above the 200-day line to shift the longer-term bias.
Range context: The recent action appears to sit in a 245–360 bandwidth; a breakout above 360 would imply a shift in near-term structure, whereas a break below 270 would suggest another test of the mid-240s.

MA(50) vs MA(200):
- Current price (~336.69) is above the MA50 (~287-294 region in the recent data), showing near-term bullishness.
- The price remains far below the MA200 (~425 region in the latest sequence), indicating the longer-term trend is still negative/bearish. No bullish crossover yet, and the 200-day line remains a major resistance if the stock attempts to extend gains.

RSI (14): Values have been in the 70s–80s during the latest rally windows, signaling overbought conditions in the near term and potential for a near-term pullback or consolidation.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD line remains positive and above the signal, but histogram momentum appears to be flattening after a strong run; there is no clear acceleration in upside momentum yet.

S1 at 245: Major near-term support that anchored the late July/early August dip; a breach would indicate a loss of the base for the current rebound.
S2 at 270: Support layer providing a cushion before challenger levels deeper in the 240s; tests of this region would confirm the durability of the rebound.
R2 at 350: Intermediary resistance that coincides with prior tops; a key boundary before attempting the higher 360 area.
R1 at 360: Upper boundary of the current swing; a breakout above here would imply a shift in near-term balance and potential for a more meaningful advance.

Bullish scenario:
- Trigger: Close above 360 with convincing volume.
- Next targets: 380–400; potential for reversion toward the 200-day average if momentum sustains.
- Invalidation: If price fails to hold above 360 and closes back under 340–350, especially with a decline below 270 on high volume.
Bearish scenario:
- Trigger: Break below 270 with confirmed volume.
- Targets: 245, with risk toward the 233–235 area (52-week low vicinity) if selling accelerates.
- Invalidation: Re-establishing above 270–275 on strong volume would reassert the current bounce and reduce downside risk.

Notes on reference lines

52-Week High: 617.34 (longer-term reference)
52-Week Low: 233.13 (longer-term reference)
The requested horizontal levels above are drawn to reflect recent price action (3mo) and are extended 100 trading days forward for projection.

Appendix: Suggested line drawing parameters (for charting)

Technical summary

Near-term setup is constructive but not yet conclusive for a longer-term uptrend.
The current price at 336.69 sits above near-term support and the 50-day trend but remains well beneath the 200-day average, leaving the longer-term bias as a cautionary backdrop.
Key levels provide defined risk/reward boundaries for trades: a break above 360 is a bullish pivot; a break below 270 is a bearish pivot.