Texas Instruments Incorporated Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN).
Horizontal trendlines have been drawn for the specified price targets.
- Low Target (125): drawn from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06 in blue (#1E90FF)
- Median Target (200): drawn from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06 in green (#32CD32)
- High Target (260): drawn from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06 in orange-red (#FF4500)
TXN Comprehensive Price Target Analysis
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: Texas Instruments (TXN) remains a high-quality analog semiconductor franchise with durable margins, robust cash generation, and a conservative balance sheet by industry standards. The stock trades around a forward-looking multiple that reflects steady demand for analog/mixed-signal ICs and TI’s entrenched position in automotive, industrial, and communications applications.
- Outlook: Modestly constructive near-term (3–12 months) with upside potential driven by solid demand in analog markets, continued free cash flow generation, and a favorable dividend profile. The risk-reward becomes more favorable if TXN re-accelerates earnings growth and expands multiple as cyclicality stabilizes.
- Key takeaway from targets: Current price is ~181.81; Market consensus targets imply a broad upside spectrum:
- Low: 125 (bearish scenario)
- Median: 200 (modest upside ~+10%)
- High: 260 (bullish upside ~+43%) These reflect a mix of revenue durability, valuation normalization, and optionality from end-market strength.
Fundamental Analysis
Summary metrics (USD unless stated)
- Market Cap: 167.12 B
- Enterprise Value: 172.62 B
- P/E (Trailing): 33.30
- P/E (Forward): 30.92
- Price to Book: 10.08
- Return on Equity (ROE): 29.99%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 10.41%
- Profit Margin: 30.23%
- Gross Margin: 58.03%
- Operating Margin: 35.03%
- Debt to Equity: 85.6%
- Total Cash: 5.36 B
- Total Debt: 14.04 B
- Dividend Yield: 3.15%
- 5-year Dividend Avg Yield: 2.65%
- Beta: 1.00
Table: Key Fundamentals (selected metrics)
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Note: Values shown in USD unless stated otherwise.
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Line items can be found in the narrative above; the table below summarises the core numbers.
Metric | Value
- Market Cap | 167.12 B
- Enterprise Value | 172.62 B
- Trailing P/E | 33.30
- Forward P/E | 30.92
- P/B | 10.08
- ROE | 29.99%
- ROA | 10.41%
- Profit Margin | 30.23%
- Gross Margin | 58.03%
- Operating Margin | 35.03%
- Debt / Equity | 85.6%
- Total Cash | 5.36 B
- Total Debt | 14.04 B
- Dividend Yield | 3.15%
- 5-year Avg Dividend Yield | 2.65%
- Beta | 1.00
Earnings Analysis
Recent earnings snapshot (GAAP/Non-GAAP elements as provided)
- Latest quarter: 2025-06-30
- Total Revenue: ~4.445B
- EBITDA: ~2.092B
- Operating Income: ~1.563B
- Net Income: ~1.295B
- Diluted EPS: ~1.41
- Basic EPS: ~1.426
- Tax Rate (calc): ~12%
- Prior quarters (selected):
- 2025-03-31: Revenue ~4.069B; Net Income ~1.179B; Diluted EPS ~1.28; Basic EPS ~1.296
- 2024-12-31: Revenue ~4.008B; Net Income ~1.205B; Diluted EPS ~1.30; Basic EPS ~1.321
- 2024-09-30: Revenue ~4.151B; Net Income ~1.362B; Diluted EPS ~1.47; Basic EPS ~1.492
- 2024-06-30: Revenue ~3.822B; Net Income ~1.127B; Diluted EPS ~1.22; Basic EPS ~1.236
Earnings analysis takeaways
- Steady quarterly revenue around the $4B level, with quarterly net income fluctuating around the $1.1–1.4B range and diluted EPS roughly in the $1.20–$1.41 band in the most recent quarters.
- The normalization pattern (2025-06-30 EPS of 1.41 vs 2024 highs of 1.47) suggests modest near-term EPS pressure but solid profitability and cash generation persist.
- The tax rate for calculations sits around 12%, which is a typical mid-teens level for TI’s operating structure and helps maintain stable reported margins.
EPS Trends
- Trailing/Current vs. YoY:
- Current quarter (0q): 1.4868
- +1q (prior quarter): 1.41531
- 0y (year-ago quarter): 5.58646
- +1y (year-ahead proxy): 6.67276
- These values imply a meaningful gap between quarterly EPS (recent) and the trailing-12-month level, with a higher multiple-year baseline (0y) suggesting stronger annual momentum over a multi-quarter horizon.
- Interpretation: The near-term quarterly EPS is healthy (around 1.41–1.49 range) but the year-ago baselines indicate elevated year-over-year earnings when viewed across multiple quarters. The +1y projection (~6.67) signals potential higher annual earnings under longer-cycle expectations, assuming revenue and margins hold or improve.
EPS Revisions
- 0q (latest period): Up Last 7d: 10; Up Last 30d: 10; Down Last 30d: 13; Down Last 7d: 14
- +1q: Up Last 7d: 0; Up Last 30d: 0; Down Last 30d: 1; Down Last 7d: 1
- 0y: Up Last 7d: 0; Up Last 30d: 0; Down Last 30d: 1; Down Last 7d: 1
- +1y: Up Last 7d: 2; Up Last 30d: 2; Down Last 30d: 1; Down Last 7d: 1
- Interpretation: Near-term revisions have leaned slightly negative (more downgrades than upgrades in the 7–30 day window), while the longer-term revisions (1y) show some upside potential with occasional upgrades. The trend suggests investors should watch for catalysts (e.g., end-market demand, capacity utilization, and product cycle strength) that could shift revisions more positively.
Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)
- 50-Day Moving Average (MA)
- Latest data point: Close 181.8, MA 188.6 (as of 2025-10-06)
- Interpretation: Price sits below the 50-day MA, implying near-term softness relative to the intermediate trend. The MA itself has been drifting downward in the recent window, indicating a drift from prior strength.
- RSI (14) trends
- Most recent RSI around 57.8 (neutral); earlier within July Aug reached up to the mid-80s, indicating overbought conditions in late August.
- Net: RSI has cooled from late summer highs but remains in a neutral to modestly bullish zone.
- MACD (12,26,9)
- Latest MACD values around -2.6 with Signal near -3.0 (as of 2025-10-06)
- Interpretation: MACD is negative, signaling near-term bearish momentum relative to the prior up-move, though not extreme. The MACD regime could turn constructive if price crosses above the MACD line and / or if MACD converges with price.
- Current price action
- Price: 181.81 vs. 50-day MA ~188.6; the stock is trading modestly below the short-term moving average, suggesting a potential retest of support or a catalyst-driven bounce.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current analyst price targets (mean/low/median/high)
- Target Low: 125
- Target Median: 200
- Target High: 260
- Current Price: 181.81
- Number of Analysts: 33
- Target Mean: 205.27
- Market implications:
- The median target (200) implies roughly +9.7% upside to current levels, while the mean target (~205) suggests a similar upside range. The high target (260) implies a potential ~43% upside if a bull scenario plays out. The distribution indicates a broad range of opinions among ~33 coverages, with the bulk of the bias perhaps leaning toward mid-term improvement.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: ~200 (median)
- Justification and drivers:
- Near-term catalysts from ongoing TI product cycle execution, continued strength in analog and industrial end-markets, and potential upside from any better-than-expected quarterly results.
- Valuation remains supported by a forward P/E around 31x, consistent with a mature analog franchise with strong cash generation.
- Key risks: semiconductor cyclicality, supply/demand shifts in end markets, and any near-term margin pressure.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: ~205–210 (mean/consensus)
- Justification and drivers:
- Analyst mean target around 205.27, implying a modest uplift from current price as earnings visibility improves and investor sentiment stabilizes.
- Sustained cash flow generation supports dividend growth and potential multiple re-rating as revenue visibility solidifies.
- Key risks: cyclicality in end markets, potential demand softening in some segments, and competitive dynamics in analog ICs.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: ~260 (bull-case)
- Justification and drivers:
- Structural advantages in TI’s portfolio (high-margin analog solutions, sensor interfaces, and embedded processing) blended with growing electrification, industrial automation, and automotive electronics.
- Potential multiple expansion if growth accelerates and margins remain robust, supported by strong FCF generation and capital returns.
- Key risks: technology shifts (e.g., new entrants, disruptive processes), macroeconomic headwinds reducing capex, and longer-cycle semiconductor demand fluctuations.
Earnings Quality, Growth, and Revisions Context
- Earnings quality: TI’s profitability metrics remain strong, with gross margins near 58% and operating margins around 35%, underscoring a high-margin business model typical of analog semiconductors. The company’s cash conversion should support a robust dividend and potential buybacks.
- Growth trajectory: Current quarter EPS (~1.41) fits within a stable, multi-quarter earnings profile. The long-run EPS trend (0y ~5.59, +1y ~6.67) points to a gradual uplift in annual earnings assuming revenue growth holds and margins stay resilient.
- Revisions posture: Near-term revisions show more downgrades than upgrades in the last 30 days, indicating some near-term caution. However, positive revisions at longer horizons (+1y) suggest potential for upward revisions if TI’s end-market demand and product mix improve.
Technical Narrative & Outlook
- Price vs. 50-day MA: The price sits just below the 50-day MA, suggesting a vulnerability to near-term consolidation unless catalysts emerge.
- Momentum: RSI hovering in the 50s–60s range indicates neither overbought nor oversold pressures; MACD is negative, implying potential for a near-term pause or pullback unless buyers gain traction.
- Price target framework: The three plotted horizontal lines (125, 200, 260) provide clear anchors for support, mid-range, and upside scenarios. Given the current price around 182, the median target at 200 offers a mild upside scenario, whereas the high target at 260 offers a more aggressive but plausible upside if end-market demand improves and multiple expansion occurs.
Investment Recommendation
- View: Hold to moderately constructive
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Rationale:
- The stock sits in a solid profitability framework with strong cash generation, a healthy dividend yield (~3.15%), and a robust product portfolio. The near-term momentum indicators (MACD negative, price below 50-day MA) suggest a cautious stance in the immediate horizon.
- The price target distribution implies meaningful upside potential, with ~+10% to the median target and ~+43% to the high target, contingent on continued demand stability and margin resilience.
- Risks that could derail the thesis include cyclical semiconductor demand shifts, competition, and macro headwinds affecting TI’s end-markets (industrial, automotive, communications).
- Expected return potential (12–24 months):
- Base case: ~+6% to +12% (to the 190–205 area, aligned with the median/mean targets)
- Upside case: up to ~+40% (to ~260) if demand improves meaningfully and investors re-rate the stock on earnings visibility and cash-flow quality.
Tables: Selected Data Snapshots
Table A: Fundamental Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 167.12 B |
| Enterprise Value | 172.62 B |
| Trailing P/E | 33.30 |
| Forward P/E | 30.92 |
| Price to Book | 10.08 |
| ROE | 29.99% |
| ROA | 10.41% |
| Profit Margin | 30.23% |
| Gross Margin | 58.03% |
| Operating Margin | 35.03% |
| Debt to Equity | 85.6% |
| Total Cash | 5.36 B |
| Total Debt | 14.04 B |
| Dividend Yield | 3.15% |
| Beta | 1.00 |
Table B: Recent Earnings Snapshot (selected quarters)
| Quarter End | Revenue (B) | EBITDA (B) | Operating Income (B) | Net Income (B) | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 4.445 | 2.092 | 1.563 | 1.295 | 1.41 | 1.426 |
| 2025-03-31 | 4.069 | 1.849 | 1.324 | 1.179 | 1.28 | 1.296 |
| 2024-12-31 | 4.008 | 1.924 | 1.377 | 1.205 | 1.30 | 1.321 |
| 2024-09-30 | 4.151 | 2.087 | 1.684 | 1.362 | 1.47 | 1.492 |
| 2024-06-30 | 3.822 | 1.759 | 1.248 | 1.127 | 1.22 | 1.236 |
Table C: EPS Trend (selected data points)
| Period | Current | 7 days Ago | 30 days Ago | 60 days Ago | 90 days Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1.4868 | 1.4868 | 1.4868 | 1.4868 | 1.47933 |
| +1q | 1.41531 | 1.41531 | 1.41634 | 1.41634 | 1.4302 |
| 0y | 5.58646 | 5.58646 | 5.58666 | 5.58666 | 5.51417 |
| +1y | 6.67276 | 6.67276 | 6.66945 | 6.66945 | 6.67982 |
Table D: EPS Revisions (periods)
| Period | Up (7d) | Up (30d) | Down (30d) | Down (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 10 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| +1q | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0y | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| +1y | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Table E: Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Latest Value |
|---|---|
| 50-Day MA | 188.6 |
| Price | 181.8 |
| RSI (14) | 57.8 |
| MACD | -2.6 |
| MACD Signal | -3.0 |
Note on Price Target Grid
- Low 125: Blue line, representing a bearish scenario where end-market demand underperforms expectations, and multiple contractions weigh on valuation.
- Median 200: Green line, representing a balanced outcome consistent with stabilized end-markets and steady earnings growth.
- High 260: Orange-Red line, representing a bull-case scenario where demand strengthens, margins stay robust, and multiple expansion occurs as TI maintains leadership in analog/mixed-signal segments.
Important caveats
- The earnings and revisions data reflect the provided figures up to the latest quarters. The semiconductor cycle can be volatile, and end-market demand (particularly automotive and industrial) materially influences outcomes.
- The stock’s leverage ratio (Debt/Equity ~86%) is notable for a cash-generating tech company. While TI maintains strong cash flow, rising interest costs or tighter credit could impact financial flexibility if the cycle tightens.
- The analyst target distribution implies a broad range of expectations; investors should weigh the median and high targets alongside the near-term momentum and risk factors.
If you’d like, I can convert these into a concise investment memo with charts and a one-page briefing for an investor presentation.