Texas Instruments Incorporated Stock Price Targets

Here is TXN analysis with the requested horizontal target lines drawn and a comprehensive price-target/dundamentals view. The lines have been plotted as horizontal trendlines for Low (125), Median (200), and High (260) and extended 30 days into the future.

Horizontal trendlines drawn

Low Target (125): color green
Median Target (200): color blue
High Target (260): color red
Extension: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (roughly 30 days)

Line details

Low 125: TXN, 2025-10-10 00:00:00-04:00 → 2025-11-09 00:00:00-04:00
Median 200: TXN, 2025-10-10 00:00:00-04:00 → 2025-11-09 00:00:00-04:00
High 260: TXN, 2025-10-10 00:00:00-04:00 → 2025-11-09 00:00:00-04:00

Notes: The lines are drawn using the specified prices and extend into the right edge of the chart (30 days beyond today). Colors:

Low 125: #00AA00 (green)
Median 200: #1E90FF (blue)
High 260: #FF0000 (red)

Now, the comprehensive analysis.

Executive Summary

Texas Instruments (TXN) trades around 178.96 as of today, with a solid fundamental profile and a diversified, cash-generative business in embedded processing and analog markets. The stock sits between a measured risk/reward framework implied by the published price targets: Low 125, Median 200, High 260. The market’s current forward multiple (~30x) and the company’s strong margins support a constructive view, but near-term momentum has shown some softness as indicated by price trading below the 50-day moving average and mixed momentum indicators. Key catalysts include a resilient semiconductor end-market demand, AI/industrial capex cycles, and potential upside from margin expansion and share gains. The price target range implies potential upside to the median/mean targets and substantial upside to the high target if growth accelerates and multiple expansion occurs.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Metrics
- Current price: 178.96
- Market cap: $162.70B
- Enterprise value: $173.78B
- Trailing P/E: 32.72
- Forward P/E: 30.44
- Price to Book: 9.92
- Return on Equity: 29.99%
- Return on Assets: 10.41%
- Profit margin: 30.23%
- Gross margin: 58.03%
- Operating margin: 35.03%
- Debt to equity: 85.61
- Total cash: $6.36B
- Total debt: $14.04B
- Dividend yield: 3.13%
- Five-year average dividend yield: 2.65%
- Beta: 1.00
Observations
- The company remains highly profitable with robust gross and operating margins and a healthy ROE.
- Leverage remains elevated (debt/ equity ~86%), but cash generation is strong, and TXN has historically managed leverage well given capex needs in the sector.
- Dividend yield above 3% supports total return potential, though buybacks/ capital allocation will influence total return in a cyclical market.

Table: Selected Fundamentals

Values shown in USD unless noted otherwise

Metric	Value
Current price	178.96
Market cap	162,699,198,464
Enterprise value	173,783,302,144
Trailing P/E	32.72
Forward P/E	30.44
Price to Book	9.92
ROE	29.99%
ROA	10.41%
Profit margin	30.23%
Gross margin	58.03%
Operating margin	35.03%
Debt/Equity	85.61
Total cash	6,359,000,064
Total debt	14,042,999,808
Dividend yield	3.13%
Five-year avg dividend yield	2.65%
Beta	1.002

Analyst targets (summary)
- Current price: 178.96
- Number of analysts: 33
- Target High / Low / Median: 260.00 / 125.00 / 200.00
- Target Mean: 205.27

Table: Analyst Targets

Item	Value
Current price	178.96
Number of analysts	33
Target High	260.00
Target Low	125.00
Target Median	200.00
Target Mean	205.27

Earnings Analysis

Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter shown: 2025-06-30)
- Total Revenue: 4.448B
- Net Income (continuing operations): 1.295B
- Diluted EPS: 1.41
- Basic EPS: 1.426
- Operating Income: 1.563B
- EBITDA: 2.092B
- Gross Profit: 2.575B
- Cost of Revenue: 1.873B
- R&D: 527M
- SG&A: 485M
Comparatives (previous quarters)
- 2025-03-31: Revenue 4.069B; Net Income 1.179B; Diluted EPS 1.28; Operating Income 1.324B; EBITDA 1.848B
- 2024-12-31: Revenue 4.007B; Net Income 1.205B; Diluted EPS 1.30; Operating Income 1.477B; EBITDA 1.924B
- 2024-09-30: Revenue 4.151B; Net Income 1.362B; Diluted EPS 1.47; Operating Income 1.684B; EBITDA 2.087B
- 2024-06-30: Revenue 3.822B; Net Income 1.127B; Diluted EPS 1.22; Operating Income 1.378B; EBITDA 1.759B

Notes:

The firm’s quarterly results show steady revenue in the 4.0–4.4B range with consistent profitability and attractive margins. The latest quarter demonstrates resilience even as macro demand cycles fluctuate.

EPS Trend

Trailing/forward EPS context in the dataset shows elevated short-term EPS (0q) around 1.4868, and trailing annualized EPS (0y) around 5.586, with next-year guidance implied by +1y around 6.673. The data suggests meaningful year-over-year earnings growth potential if the cyclical demand improves and margins stay robust.

Period	Diluted EPS
0q (current)	1.4868
+1q	1.41531
0y (trailing 12m)	5.58646
+1y (forecast)	6.67276

EPS Revisions

The revisions data show a net tilt toward upgrades in recent periods, though there was some near-term downdraft. The latest 0q data show 10 upgrades vs 13 downgrades in the last 30 days, with 7-14 day and 30-day windows indicating mixed sentiment in the very near term. +1q and 0y periods show a modest uptick in upgrades vs downgrades, suggesting sentiment improvement in the near-to-intermediate term.

Period	Up Last 7d	Up Last 30d	Down Last 30d	Down Last 7d
0q	10	10	13	14
+1q	0	0	1	1
0y	0	0	1	1
+1y	2	2	1	1

Technical Analysis (last 60 days snapshot)

Price action vs. 50-day moving average (50D MA)
- 50D MA as of 2025-10-09: 188.0
- Price: 178.96
- Interpretation: Price currently trades ~9.0% below the 50D MA, signaling near-term bearish/slightly negative momentum relative to the intermediate trend.
RSI (14) snapshot (latest)
- Latest RSI (2025-10-09): 49.4
- Range and trend: RSI has oscillated between oversold in late July to mid-August and rebounded into late September, before drifting lower again toward 50. A sub-60 RSI indicates room for upside, but not an overbought condition.
MACD (12,26,9)
- Latest MACD: around -2.6 with a signal near -2.8
- Interpretation: Negative MACD and slightly negative relative to the signal indicate residual near-term momentum weakness, though the trajectory could improve with a rebound in price and a potential MACD cross back toward zero.

Summary of Technical Readings

Price vs. 50D MA: Bearish near-term momentum
RSI: Neutral-to-mid-range, not overbought
MACD: Negative momentum, potential for shift if price finds support and climbs

Moving Averages and momentum are consistent with a stock that could consolidate or drift in the near term, with a potential move higher if earnings momentum and demand pick up, given TXN’s dominant product mix.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Current price: 178.96
Coverage: 33 analysts
Targets (low/median/high): 125.00 / 200.00 / 260.00
Target mean: 205.27
Catalyst drivers
- Demand environment for analog and embedded processing
- AI and industrial automation cycles
- Margin stabilization and cost discipline
- Share repurchases or incremental buybacks
- Potential share gains from product mix and market share

Table: Price Targets and Coverage

Item	Value
Current price	178.96
Analysts covering TXN	33
Target Low	125.00
Target Median	200.00
Target High	260.00
Target Mean	205.27

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)
- Target range: roughly 125–260, with current price near 179
- Justification: Near-term momentum remains mixed; risk factors include macro softness in semis and sector-specific demand. Upside potential could be limited in the near term if earnings visibility remains cautious, but sentiment could improve on favorable guidance or stronger product mix.
- Key drivers: quarterly guidance, enterprise/infrastructure demand, and risk-on flow in semis.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target around the median/mean: ~200–205
- Justification: With TXN’s robust margins and cash generation, a re-acceleration in end-market demand and continued pricing power could push the stock toward the median target. If the company sustains margin expansion and beats expectations, multiple expansion could occur toward the mean/high targets.
- Key drivers: sustained demand in auto/industrial, data-center analogs, efficiency improvements, and continued dividend/capital returns.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target high: up to 260
- Justification: Structural growth in analog and embedded processing, coupled with favorable mix and ongoing buybacks, could push valuations higher if earnings compound at a steady rate and capex cycles in the sector normalize toward growth. The 260 target implies a strong growth scenario and healthier multiples, hinging on durable demand and favorable macro conditions.
- Key drivers: continued product leadership, AI/edge compute adoption, and advantageous cost structure.

Table: Price Target Scenarios

Horizon	Price Target	Justification & Drivers
Short-Term (3 months)	125–260	Mixed momentum; upside contingent on stronger near-term guidance and demand resilience; downside risk if macro/semis soften.
Mid-Term (12 months)	~200–205	Margin stability + demand recovery + potential multiple expansion.
Long-Term (3+ years)	Up to 260	Structural growth in analog/embedded, favorable mix, buybacks, and demand tailwinds.

Catalysts and risks

Catalysts
- Resilience in embedded processing and analog markets
- AI/edge compute growth driving demand for TXN’s product families
- Margin expansion and efficiency improvements
- Share repurchases and capital allocation optimization
Risks
- Semiconductor cycle sensitivity and end-market softness (automotive, consumer devices)
- Competitive pressure and price/term competition
- Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions
- Debt load and balance sheet management in a volatile macro environment

Key Risks & Opportunities

Major risks
- Cyclicality of the broader semiconductor market and slower-than-expected end-demand recovery
- High leverage (debt-to-equity) relative to some peers; sensitivity to interest rate moves
- Competition in analog and embedded processing, potential pricing pressures
Key opportunities
- Strong cash generation enabling continued buybacks and dividends
- Margin discipline and efficiency improvements could drive earnings power
- Growing demand from AI, IoT, automotive, and industrial sectors
- Potential multiple expansion if growth rates and capex cycles re-accelerate

Investment Recommendation

View: Hold to Start (with constructive upside potential)
Time horizon: 12–24 months
Rationale:
- The stock sits at a crossroad: solid fundamentals and a stable dividend base, but near-term momentum remains mixed as indicated by price below the 50D MA and negative MACD signals. The targeted median of 200 suggests a potential ~11–12% uplift from current levels if earnings momentum and macro demand stabilize. The high target of 260 implies substantial upside in a stronger growth/ multiple-expansion scenario, while the low target of 125 presents meaningful downside risk if cyclicality worsens.
- Given TXN’s earnings quality (stable gross and operating margins, solid EPS across recent quarters) and the robust free-cash-flow profile implied by the EBITDA and net income figures, a measured stance with stock-specific catalysts supporting the upside could be appropriate.

Expected return potential (12–24 months)

Base case: ~5–12% upside to around 190–200 if earnings momentum remains steady and the market re-prices TXN’s earnings power.
Upside case: ~15–25% or more to 210–230 if demand improves notably and multiple expansion occurs.
Bull case: Approaching the high target of 260 if a favorable macro environment, continued margin resilience, and further buyback-driven supply-demand dynamics materialize.

Closing notes

The provided earnings data (latest 2025-06-30 quarter) shows a solid quarter with Net Income of ~1.295B and Diluted EPS of ~1.41 on ~$4.448B in revenue, reinforcing TXN’s earnings quality. The EPS trend suggests continued growth potential, while revisions data indicate a cautious near-term sentiment that could turn constructive on guidance and demand improvements.
Technicals indicate near-term weakness (price under the 50D MA, negative MACD) but supportive longer-term fundamentals and a favorable set of price targets suggest potential for upside as the cycle improves and TXN executes on its margin and cash-return strategy.

If you’d like, I can add a one-page executive summary chart with the three lines now plotted on your chart (125, 200, 260) and pin the key data points above as a compact investor sheet.