Finance Halo
Company Overview
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is a global multi-energy company involved in the exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil and gas, as well as in renewable energy development. It operates through integrated oil and gas, integrated power, and exploration and production segments. TTE is one of the world's largest energy companies, with a significant presence in Europe, Africa, and North America, and is increasingly focusing on expanding its renewable energy portfolio.
Price Action Analysis
The daily chart shows TTE trading in a relatively tight range over the last three months, with price oscillating between approximately $58 and $67. Recent price action indicates some choppiness, with several attempts to break higher met with selling pressure, and pullbacks finding support. Volume has been variable, with spikes on days of significant price movement, but no clear sustained trend of accumulation or distribution is apparent.
The weekly chart reveals a longer-term uptrend that began in late 2021 from lows around $45. The price has generally trended upwards, forming higher highs and higher lows, though with significant volatility. Notable peaks occurred in mid-2022 and early 2023, followed by periods of consolidation and decline before resuming an upward trajectory. The current price is near the upper bounds of its recent trading range on this longer timeframe. Support appears to be forming around the $50-$55 zone, while resistance might be found near the $67-$70 area.
News & Catalysts
The recent news surrounding TotalEnergies SE (TTE) indicates continued strategic activity, particularly in acquisitions and renewable energy partnerships, alongside ongoing share buybacks. The company's move to list on the NYSE and strategic divestments/acquisitions in various regions signal active portfolio management. While analysts largely maintain a 'Hold' consensus with price targets suggesting modest upside, a recent earnings miss may have tempered some enthusiasm. These developments, especially share buybacks and strategic growth initiatives, could provide underlying support for the stock, while the earnings miss might contribute to short-term caution.
Fondamental analysis
Key Financial Metrics & Valuation
| Metric | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Price/Earnings | 5.34 | TTM |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.61 | TTM |
| Price/Book | 1.37 | TTM |
| Dividend Yield | 4.73% | Current |
Earnings & Estimates
| Metric | Latest | Next Estimate | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | $11.76 | $2.78 (Q4'25) | - |
| Revenue (TTM) | $206.89B | $50.12B (Q4'25) | - |
| Earnings Growth YoY | -17.80% | - | - |
Margins & Profitability
| Metric | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 35.79% | TTM |
| Operating Margin | 13.39% | TTM |
| Net Margin | 10.98% | TTM |
Analyst Recommendations & Price Targets
| Recommendation | Count | Average Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 7 | $72.50 |
| Hold | 13 | $68.00 |
| Sell | 2 | $64.00 |
TotalEnergies SE presents a valuation that appears attractive from a deep-value perspective, with low P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B ratios compared to historical averages and potentially industry peers. The dividend yield is also robust. However, recent earnings growth has been negative, and the latest quarterly EPS missed estimates. Despite this, analysts largely recommend holding the stock, with average price targets indicating potential upside. The company's strong margins and significant revenue base are noteworthy, as is its active share buyback program.
Market & Sentiment Context
The energy sector, in general, has experienced volatility influenced by global macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, and the ongoing transition towards renewable energy sources. TotalEnergies, as a major integrated energy company, is navigating these crosscurrents. While traditional oil and gas operations remain significant profit drivers, the company's strategic investments in renewables position it to benefit from the long-term energy transition. Market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, as evidenced by the 'Hold' consensus from analysts and price targets that suggest limited downside but also no strong conviction for a significant rally. The recent price action, consolidating within a range on the daily chart, suggests a market that is waiting for clearer catalysts or fundamental shifts.
Investment Outlook
From a deep-value perspective, TotalEnergies SE offers an intriguing combination of low valuation multiples and a solid dividend yield. The company's diverse operations, including a growing renewable energy segment, provide some resilience against the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry. The robust cash flows, though recently showing a dip in growth, and a strong balance sheet (implied by its ability to conduct buybacks and pay dividends) are positive indicators for value investors.
However, the recent earnings miss and the prevailing 'Hold' ratings from analysts suggest that the market may be pricing in uncertainties or a slower growth trajectory. For a deep-value investor, the margin of safety is primarily derived from the low valuation multiples and the substantial dividend. The key catalysts for a re-rating would likely be a turnaround in earnings growth, more aggressive capital returns, or a clearer acceleration in their renewable energy ventures demonstrating their long-term profitability.
Key Buy/Sell Levels
The current price of TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is $63.41.
Support Levels:
-
$62.00 - $63.00: This zone represents a key support area. It has been tested in the recent past (visible on the daily chart) and coincides with the lower boundary of the recent trading range.
- Distance from current price: This level is currently being tested or is slightly below the current price.
- Significance: This area shows previous consolidation and potential buying interest. It is also near the lower end of the recent price action.
-
$58.00 - $60.00: This is a more significant support zone, representing lows seen in the last three months.
- Distance from current price: Approximately $3.41 to $5.41 below the current price (5.38% to 8.53%).
- Significance: Historically, this zone has provided strong bounces, indicating a significant level of accumulated buying interest.
Resistance Levels:
-
$65.50 - $66.50: This area acted as resistance in the recent past and is near the upper boundary of the current daily trading range.
- Distance from current price: Approximately $2.09 to $3.09 above the current price (3.29% to 4.87%).
- Significance: This zone needs to be overcome for the price to initiate a stronger upward move. It represents a psychological and technical barrier.
-
$67.50 - $68.50: This level marks the recent highs observed on the weekly chart and aligns with the average analyst price target.
- Distance from current price: Approximately $4.09 to $5.09 above the current price (6.45% to 8.03%).
- Significance: A break above this resistance zone would indicate a potential resumption of the longer-term uptrend and could signal increased investor confidence.
These support and resistance levels are crucial for assessing potential entry and exit points. The $62.00-$63.00 support zone is currently being tested, and a hold here could offer a favorable entry point for value investors. A break below this could signal further downside towards the $58.00-$60.00 strong support. On the upside, clearing the $65.50-$66.50 resistance is essential for a bullish continuation, with $67.50-$68.50 as the next significant hurdle.
Summary & Takeaways
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) presents a compelling case for deep-value investors due to its low valuation multiples, attractive dividend yield, and strategic positioning in the evolving energy landscape. The company's operational strength, robust cash flows, and commitment to share buybacks underscore its financial resilience.
However, the recent dip in earnings growth and analyst sentiment leaning towards 'Hold' warrant a cautious approach. The key for investors will be monitoring TTE's ability to reignite earnings growth, accelerate its renewable energy initiatives, and navigate the energy transition effectively.
Key Considerations:
- Valuation: Attractive P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B ratios suggest potential undervaluation.
- Dividend: A solid dividend yield provides income and a degree of downside protection.
- Growth: Focus on renewable energy investments is a positive long-term strategy, but execution and profitability will be key.
- Risks: Volatility in energy prices, regulatory changes, and the pace of the energy transition pose inherent risks.
For a deep-value investor, the current price range around $62-$63 offers a potential entry point, provided these support levels hold. A more conservative approach would await a confirmed break above the $66-$68 resistance, signaling renewed upward momentum.