Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Technical Analysis

Price Action Analysis

Overview

• The daily price action shows a recent down-move from the mid-to-high 400s toward the low 400s, with the current price around $411.82.
• The price structure exhibits lower highs and lower lows in the most recent phase, consistent with a short-term downtrend within a broader trading range.
• On the weekly chart, price has been meandering within a defined range, with resistance in the mid-to-high 400s and support near the low-to-mid 400s. The longer-term context remains constructive relative to the MA200 but neutral to mildly bearish in the near term.

Key price levels observed

• Immediate near-term support: around the $408–$410 area (recent tests observed in the up-to-date price flow).
• Near-term resistance: around $450, with intraday resistance forming closer to the $430–$440 area given the MA50 proximity.
• Major reference level: the $408–$450 zone acts as a clear flat-to-down channel boundary in the current view.

Candlestick/Candlestick-pattern observations

• Consolidation and pullbacks have been marked by relatively range-bound candles, with occasional short-lived bullish bounces when buyers step in near support.
• No clear, persistent breakout pattern (e.g., a clean ascending triangle or a symmetrical wedge) has been established in the latest sessions; the price largely respects a defined support area while facing resistance near the intermediate moving average.

Volume behavior (relative to price action)

• Volume tends to rise on some downside moves, signaling distribution pressure during pullbacks.
• Up-moves have generally been less energetic, suggesting limited buying enthusiasm to push through immediate resistance.
• Overall, current volume patterns are consistent with a continuation of range-bound trading until a decisive breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support occurs with notable volume.

Technical Indicators

Key Readings (latest values)

• Current Price: $411.82
• Moving Average (50-day): $440.90
• Moving Average (200-day): $387.70
• RSI (14): 39.0
• MACD (12,26,9): MACD = -7.10; Signal = -7.40; Histogram ≈ +0.30

Summary interpretation

• The price is trading below the 50-day moving average, signaling near-term downside pressure relative to the short- to mid-term trend.
• Price sits above the 200-day moving average, implying a longer-term bullish backdrop remains intact, but near-term momentum is weak.
• RSI around 39 indicates subdued momentum and room for both potential reversals or further downside before becoming oversold.
• MACD remains negative with the MACD line below the signal line, reinforcing current downside pressure; a shift above zero or a sustained move above the signal could imply a momentum reversal.

Technical indicator table

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Latest Value	Interpretation
Current Price	$411.82	Near support zone; trading below MA50, above MA200.
MA50	$440.90	Price below MA50; near-term weakness vs. mid-term trend.
MA200	$387.70	Price above MA200; longer-term bias still constructive.
RSI (14)	39.0	Weak momentum; no oversold extreme yet.
MACD	-7.10	Negative momentum; below zero.
MACD Signal	-7.40	Slightly more negative than MACD; histogram ≈ +0.30 suggesting minor recent momentum shift but still bearish.
Price vs MA50	~-6.6%	Price under the 50-day MA.
Price vs MA200	~+6.2%	Price above the 200-day MA.

Volume & Momentum Analysis

• Momentum appears bearish in the near term due to price trading below the 50-day average and MACD staying negative.
• Volume patterns align with a mild distribution during pullbacks and lack of urgent buying pressure on rallies.
• The weekly chart context suggests a broad range rather than a pronounced breakout, reinforcing a wait-and-watch posture for a meaningful momentum shift.

Key Buy/Sell Levels

Current price reference

• Current price: $411.82
• Trendlines drawn for near-term context:
  • Support line at $408 (horizontal line projecting forward)
  • Resistance line at $450 (horizontal line projecting forward)

Buy zone candidates (with touch status and distance)

• Zone 1 – Immediate support area around $408–$410

  • Has it been touched? Yes (recent tests occur around this level in the current window).
  • Distance from current price: minimal (current price is within this zone; approximately $1–$3 away).
  • Qualitative note: If price holds above this level with steady volume, it can form a base for a potential reversal or a bounce toward $430–$440.

• Zone 2 – Near-term setup around $420–$430

  • Has it been touched? Not yet in a sustained fashion; price currently sits around $412.
  • Distance from current price: ~8–18 dollars higher; ~2%–4% above current price.
  • Qualitative note: A break/close above $430 with volume could signal a shift toward the $440–$450 area, where MA50 resides.

• Zone 3 – Key resistance zone around $450–$455

  • Has it been touched? Price has not established a sustained move above; recent action has struggled near this zone.
  • Distance from current price: ~38–43 dollars higher; ~9%–10% above current price.
  • Qualitative note: Clearing $450 would be a meaningful bullish signal, especially if accompanied by above-average volume, suggesting potential acceleration toward higher levels.

Trendlines drawn (summary)

• Support line at $408, extending forward beyond the current window to mark near-term floor.
• Resistance line at $450, extending forward to mark a significant ceiling if price approaches it.
• These lines are anchored near current price action and extend out at least 90 days to provide a forward-looking reference.

How these levels align with technical reference points

• The $408 support aligns with an established price floor observed in the recent pullback; a sustained hold here would be consistent with a base formation.
• The $450 resistance aligns with a clear mid-term ceiling where the MA50 sits nearby; a breakout above this line would coincide with a shift in momentum and potential re-test of higher levels.
• The proximity of the MA50 around $441 adds confluence to the notion that a move through $430–$450 is a prerequisite to a stronger upside run.
• Volume patterns around these zones (pullbacks on higher volume and rallies on lighter volume) would need to show a shift to more aggressive buying to confirm a durable breakout.

Technical Outlook & Summary

• Near-Term Bias: Bearish to neutral. The price trades below the 50-day moving average, and MACD remains negative with subdued momentum. RSI indicates limited upside potential in the near term unless buyers gain traction.
• Intermediate-Term Context: Bullish relative to the 200-day moving average, but the 50-day boundary presents a hurdle. A break through the $450 level with volume could shift the bias toward a more constructive phase (targeting the $470–$500 zone if momentum accelerates).
• Key Levels to Watch:
  • Support: $408–$410 (defensive base; a hold here supports potential reversal).
  • Immediate resistance: $430–$440 (near-term breakout zone; aligns with MA50 vicinity).
  • Breakout level: $450 (major inflection; a close above with volume would suggest a new up-leg).
• Actionable considerations:
  • If price holds above $408 with constructive volume, a cautious long-with-limit-resistance approach toward $430–$440 could be considered.
  • A clean breakout above $450 on elevated volume would provide a more confident long-entry signal, with first target near $470–$480 and a potential regional consolidation thereafter.
  • Conversely, a break below $408 with stronger volume would re-establish downside risk toward the next support cluster near $400–$395.

Notes on charts and references

• The attached daily and weekly charts visualize a price structure contained within a defined support-resistance corridor, with a recent tilt toward the lower end of that corridor. The trendlines drawn here reflect the current setup and provide a forward-looking frame for the near-term decision points.
• The current price action remains within a broader range. A decisive move beyond the $450 resistance or the $408 support, especially with above-average volume, would be the primary catalysts for a change in the current technical stance.

If you’d like, I can refine the buy levels with a more granular approach (e.g., incorporating additional moving averages such as MA21 or MA100, or defining alternate patterns like double bottoms or flags) or extend the analysis to a short-term (intraday) horizon.