Tesla, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) as of 2025-10-10, including the requested horizontal price-target lines drawn onto the price chart.

Horizontal Price Target Lines Drawn (extending 30 days into the future)

  • Low Target: 120.00 (blue) — extends 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target: 355.00 (orange) — extends 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • High Target: 600.00 (green) — extends 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Tesla remains a dominant, multi-segment EV and energy company with meaningful upside optionality from volume growth, energy products, and potential AI/automation catalysts. Trading sentiment is complex due to very wide analyst target dispersion and high valuation, but the company’s cash generation, margins, and product roadmap provide a constructive longer-term view.
  • Price beltway: The stock sits near $435.54 and trades well above its 50-day moving average (approx. $373 on the latest 50-DMA data) with a neutral-to-mildly-bullish near-term momentum (RSI around 52.8). The MACD line remains positive but recently squeezed toward the signal line, suggesting possible near-term consolidation before a clearer directional move.
  • Key takeaway: The analyst target distribution is highly dispersed (low 120, median 355, high 600), indicating meaningful upside optionality if catalysts materialize but substantial downside risk if headline/regulatory/macro concerns intensify. The immediate chart setup shows the stock well above a rising 50-DMA, implying a bullish intermediate trend; however, the very high trailing P/E and forward P/E suggest valuation risk that warrants a cautious stance.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Market cap: $1.448T
    • Enterprise value: $1.392T
    • Trailing P/E: 260.8x
    • Forward P/E: 134.4x
    • Price-to-Book: 18.16x
    • PEG ratio: not provided
    • Beta: 2.09 (high volatility vs. market)
  • Profitability and efficiency
    • Profit margin: 6.34%
    • Gross margin: 17.48%
    • Operating margin: 4.10%
    • Return on equity (ROE): 8.18%
    • Return on assets (ROA): 2.96%
  • Balance sheet and liquidity
    • Total cash: ~$36.78B
    • Total debt: ~$13.13B
    • Debt-to-equity: 16.8x
    • Net cash position appears positive, supporting ongoing capex to scale production and R&D
  • Observations
    • The business model is robust with strong cash generation and modest operating margins, but the stock trades at elevated valuation multiples. Revenue mix remains diversified (vehicles, energy generation/storage, services). The high beta implies higher risk/reward in a volatile macro environment.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

  • 2025-06-30:
    • Total Revenue: $22.496B
    • Net Income (continuing ops): $1.172B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.33
    • Basic EPS: $0.36
    • Normalized EBITDA: $3.068B
  • 2025-03-31:
    • Total Revenue: $19.335B
    • Net Income: $0.409B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.12
    • Basic EPS: $0.13
    • Normalized EBITDA: $2.222B
  • 2024-12-31:
    • Total Revenue: $25.707B
    • Net Income: $2.314B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.66
    • Basic EPS: $0.72
    • Normalized EBITDA: $4.365B
  • 2024-09-30:
    • Total Revenue: $25.182B
    • Net Income: $2.167B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.62
    • Basic EPS: $0.68
    • Normalized EBITDA: $4.279B
  • 2024-06-30:
    • Total Revenue: $25.50B
    • Net Income: $1.40B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.42
    • Basic EPS: $0.46
    • Normalized EBITDA: $3.773B
  • 2024-03-31:
    • Total Revenue: ~$25.5B
    • Net Income: ~$1.40B
    • Diluted EPS: roughly $0.66
    • Basic EPS: roughly $0.68
  • Observations:
    • Quarterly earnings have shown volatility around gross/margin contributions and unusual items. Net income figures have fluctuated across quarters, with some quarters showing stronger profitability (e.g., 2024 year-end) and others showing more modest earnings (e.g., 2025-Q1). Normalized EBITDA has generally trended higher over time, signaling improving operating cash flow generation absent one-time items.
    • The Normalized Income line suggests material EBITDA backing the cash flow narrative, though reported net income can diverge due to unusual items and tax dynamics.

EPS Trend

  • Current trajectory (0q): 0.5360 (most recent reported quarter), with a rising trend from 0.4818 (90 days ago) to 0.5360 today.
  • +1q: 0.4762 (current), with a wide prior swing (0.5624 90 days ago). The +1q series implies a possible near-term dip vs the 0q level but still above earlier periods.
  • 0y (year-ago trailing): 1.7042
  • +1y: 2.4283
  • Interpretation: In the trailing 12 months, EPS levels (both diluted and basic) show meaningful growth vs the prior year, but quarterly volatility remains. The current quarter EPS (~0.54) sits below the year-ago annualized level but is in a constructive growth trajectory on a multi-quarter basis.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: Up last7d = 6, Up last30d = 7, Down last30d = 1, Down last7d = 0
  • +1q: Up last7d = 1, Up last30d = 2, Down last30d = 3, Down last7d = 3
  • 0y: Up last7d = 5, Up last30d = 7, Down last30d = 1, Down last7d = 0
  • +1y: Up last7d = 2, Up last30d = 3, Down last30d = 6, Down last7d = 4
  • Interpretation: The revisions data show a tilt toward upward revisions in the near term (0q, 0y) but a noticeable fraction of downward revisions in the +1q and +1y horizons. The near-term momentum for EPS is modestly positive, but mixed sentiment exists for longer horizons, consistent with a high-valuation, stock-specific risk/reward profile.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action
    • Current price: 435.54
    • 50-day MA (latest): 373.2
    • Price is well above the 50-DMA, indicating a bullish intermediate trend.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14): 52.8 (neutral)
    • MACD (12,26,9): MACD line 19.8 vs. signal 23.0 (negative MACD histogram tilt, though both remain positive). The MACD has been converging toward the signal line, suggesting potential near-term consolidation or a softer move unless momentum re-accelerates.
  • Interpretation: The chart shows a constructive intermediate trend (price above rising 50-DMA), with neutral RSI and a softening MACD. The risk is for a near-term pause before a sustained move, depending on macro/market sentiment and company-specific catalysts.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 435.54
  • Coverage: 38 analysts
  • Target set (range)
    • Low: 120.00
    • Median: 355.00
    • High: 600.00
    • Mean: 360.63
  • Target dispersion: Wide (low-to-high spread indicates substantial upside/downside risk depending on scenarios)
  • Potential catalysts and drivers
    • Volume growth across EV platforms and regions
    • Margin expansion via cost controls, platform synergies, and software/services mix
    • FSD/camera-based autonomy progress, delivery efficiency, and energy storage solutions
    • Regulatory, macroeconomic, and supply chain dynamics
  • Near-term sentiment: Mixed to moderately positive on near-term delivery progress but tempered by valuation and external uncertainty.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 355 (Median target) as base case
    • Justification: Near-term normalization in quarterly results and potential macro/competitive headwinds could pressure near-term upside. The dispersion in analyst targets suggests potential downside risk from macro factors or execution at scale; a 3-month horizon could align with a reversion toward the median target.
    • Key drivers: Q3–Q4 delivery cadence, gross margin stabilization, ongoing capex cycles, and macro demand environment.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 360–370 (Mean target around 360.6 acts as a baseline)
    • Justification: With a broader set of catalysts (margin expansion, software/services growth, energy products ramp, and potential AI-enabled manufacturing efficiencies), the stock could drift toward the mean consensus around 360–370. This aligns with a more normalized multiple vs. the current elevated forward multiples.
    • Key drivers: Margin stabilization, greater FSD/AI monetization, capacity expansion, regulatory normalization, and capex-to-sales efficiency.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 600 (High target) or higher
    • Justification: If Tesla sustains high EV adoption, expands software/services revenue, achieves meaningful energy storage integration and capacity improvements, and potentially realizes autonomy monetization at scale, the upside could approach the high target around 600. The dispersion implies a meaningful upside optionality if the company successfully executes on growth and margin expansion.
    • Key drivers: Global EV penetration, software monetization, autonomous driving revenue, energy generation/storage scale, and capital-light revenue opportunities.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Valuation risk: Trailing forward P/E and elevated book multiples leave limited downside protection if growth slows or competition intensifies.
    • Execution risk: Scaling production, software monetization, and energy offerings across regions can be challenging; supply chain or regulatory constraints could dampen growth.
    • Macro factors: Interest rates, consumer demand, and geopolitical considerations could impact EV demand and capex cycles.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Margin expansion: If cost controls and high-margin software/services gains lift gross and operating margins, earnings power could surprise to the upside.
    • Software/AI monetization: Incremental revenue from autonomous-driving software, energy software, and related services could diversify earnings.
    • Global scale: Expanding production and product lines across geographies can drive incremental unit economics and absorption of fixed costs.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale: With a current price of approximately $435 and a median analyst target of $355, there is near-term risk to the downside in the base case; however, substantial upside potential exists if macro conditions improve, margins expand, and Tesla unlocks greater software/AI monetization and energy revenue. The stock’s robust balance sheet and strong cash generation underpin upside optionality, but the valuation remains high relative to many peers, suggesting a cautious stance.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months)
    • Base-case (balanced risk/reward): Approximately flat to modestly positive (roughly -5% to +10%), contingent on stable macro conditions and margin improvement.
    • Upside scenario: If catalysts materialize (AI/software monetization, autonomy monetization, margin expansion), upside could approach the high target around 600 over a multi-year horizon.
    • Downside scenario: If demand slows or competitive pressures intensify, revisiting the low target around 120 or below would be plausible.

Notes on Data Reference and Calculation

  • Price, earnings, and multiples reflect the provided data as of 2025-10-10.
  • The price targets and analyst consensus reflect the numbers provided (Low 120, Median 355, High 600; Mean 360.63; 38 analysts).
  • Recent earnings and EPS figures reflect the provided quarterly data and revisions: EPS current trend (0q 0.5360, +1q 0.4762, 0y 1.7042, +1y 2.4283) with revisions showing mixed near-term momentum (more upward revisions in 0q/0y; more mixed revisions in +1q/+1y).
  • Technical indicators show price above the 50-DMA (bullish intermediate trend), neutral RSI, and a MACD that remains positive but trending toward the signal, implying potential consolidation ahead of a new move.

Appendix: Data Tables (selected)

Key Metrics

  • Current Price: 435.54
  • Market Cap: 1,448,236,285,952
  • Enterprise Value: 1,392,082,157,568
  • Trailing P/E: 260.80
  • Forward P/E: 134.43
  • Price to Book: 18.16
  • ROE: 8.18%
  • ROA: 2.96%
  • Profit Margin: 6.34%
  • Gross Margin: 17.48%
  • Operating Margin: 4.10%
  • Debt to Equity: 16.823x
  • Total Cash: 36.78B
  • Total Debt: 13.13B
  • Beta: 2.09

Analyst Targets

  • Current Price: 435.54
  • Analysts Covering: 38
  • Target Low / Median / High / Mean:
    • Low: 120.00
    • Median: 355.00
    • High: 600.00
    • Mean: 360.63

Recent Earnings Summary (selected)

  • 2025-06-30: Revenue 22.496B, Net Income 1.172B, Diluted EPS 0.33, Basic EPS 0.36, Normalized EBITDA 3.068B
  • 2025-03-31: Revenue 19.335B, Net Income 0.409B, Diluted EPS 0.12, Basic EPS 0.13, Normalized EBITDA 2.222B
  • 2024-12-31: Revenue 25.707B, Net Income 2.314B, Diluted EPS 0.66, Basic EPS 0.72, Normalized EBITDA 4.365B
  • 2024-09-30: Revenue 25.182B, Net Income 2.167B, Diluted EPS 0.62, Basic EPS 0.68, Normalized EBITDA 4.279B
  • 2024-06-30: Revenue 25.50B, Net Income 1.40B, Diluted EPS 0.42, Basic EPS 0.46, Normalized EBITDA 3.773B

EPS Trend (selected)

  • 0q: current 0.53604; 7d 0.50928; 30d 0.4935; 60d 0.48965; 90d 0.48177
  • +1q: current 0.47622; 7d 0.47397; 30d 0.47271; 60d 0.48155; 90d 0.56244
  • 0y: 1.70423; 7d 1.70409; 30d 1.69015; 60d 1.69368; 90d 1.8136
  • +1y: 2.42825; 7d 2.42715; 30d 2.39647; 60d 2.40404; 90d 2.79778

EPS Revisions (selected)

  • 0q: up7d=6, up30d=7, down30d=1, down7d=0
  • +1q: up7d=1, up30d=2, down30d=3, down7d=3
  • 0y: up7d=5, up30d=7, down30d=1, down7d=0
  • +1y: up7d=2, up30d=3, down30d=6, down7d=4

Technical Indicators (latest)

  • 50-Day MA: 373.2
  • RSI (14): 52.8
  • MACD: 19.8 (line) vs 23.0 (signal)

Notes and Disclaimers

  • All figures are based on the data you provided. Real-world figures may differ due to subsequent financial disclosures, FX movements, or restatements.
  • The horizontal lines drawn reflect the specified price targets stretched to 30 days into the future and are not price predictions or guarantees; they serve as visual reference points for chart analysis.

Would you like me to add a sensitivity analysis showing how the Target Low/Median/High would look under different scenarios (e.g., 3-, 6-, 12-month horizons with given catalysts), or to build a probabilistic framework around the price targets?

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