T-Mobile US, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS).

Here are the three price levels drawn (Low, Median, High) and a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for TMUS as of 2025-10-10.

Price Levels Drawn

  • Low Target: 210.00
    • Colour: DodgerBlue (#1E90FF)
    • Horizontal line extended to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target: 240.00
    • Colour: Green (#32CD32)
    • Horizontal line extended to 2025-11-09
  • High Target: 275.00
    • Colour: DarkOrange (#FF8C00)
    • Horizontal line extended to 2025-11-09

Notes on drawing

  • Lines were drawn on the active TMUS price chart with 30 days extension from today (2025-10-10) to 2025-11-09.
  • If you’d like longer/shorter extension or different time anchors, I can adjust.

Executive Summary

  • TMUS trades around $226 per share with a diversified telecom footprint and a conservative balance sheet relative to peers, but price action has shown recent downside pressure.
  • The near-term setup is characterized by a relatively oversold condition (RSI near the low 20s–30s in the last 60 days) despite solid operating metrics, suggesting a potential bottoming process if fundamentals hold.
  • The three plotted price targets give a framework for risk-managed upside: 210 (low), 240 (base/median), 275 (high). They’re anchored to a data-informed view of earnings and revisions below.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key Valuation and Capitalization
    • Current price: 226.21
    • Market cap: 254.58B
    • Enterprise value: 363.42B
    • Trailing P/E: 21.38
    • Forward P/E: 21.20
    • Price-to-Book: 4.17
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 19.7%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 5.8%
    • Profit margin: 14.5%
    • Gross margin: 63.7%
    • Operating margin: 24.7%
    • Debt-to-Equity: 194.2
    • Total cash: 10.26B
    • Total debt: 118.68B
    • Dividend yield: 1.8%
    • Beta: 0.583
  • Balance sheet & liquidity
    • Elevated debt load relative to cash, but sizable scale and cash generation typical for large telecoms. Free cash flow dynamics (not provided in the data) are a key driver to watch given leverage.
  • Interpretation
    • Valuation is modestly elevated versus peers on a P/E basis but supported by stable cash flows and a disciplined dividend, albeit with a high debt-to-equity stack that warrants monitoring if interest rates rise or margins compress.

Earnings Analysis (based on the provided data)

  • Recent Earnings Summary (quarter ended 2025-06-30)
    • Total Revenue: 21.132B
    • Operating Revenue: 20.878B
    • Gross Profit: 13.756B
    • EBITDA: 8.348B
    • EBIT: 5.202B
    • Operating Income: 5.213B
    • Net Income (from continuing ops): 3.222B
    • Diluted EPS: 2.84
    • Diluted Shares (avg): 1,134.85M
    • Net Income: 3.222B
    • Taxes: 1.058B
  • EPS Trend (selected data points)
    • 0q (most recent): Diluted EPS 2.84; Basic EPS 2.84
    • EPS Trend values (recent changes):
      • current 0q: 2.39829
      • 7 days ago: 2.41798
      • 30 days ago: 2.8142
      • 60 days ago: 2.81757
      • 90 days ago: 2.81494
    • Year-over-year look:
      • 0y: 10.4007
      • +1y: 12.34381 Interpretation: The near-term quarterly EPS (0q) is around 2.40, with a modest step down from 7-30-90 day readings, while the year-ago base is materially higher on a trailing basis. The 0y and +1y figures reflect multi-quarter aggregation (likely a different base/period convention) and show higher annualized EPS figures historically; this implies a potential positive long-run trajectory if mix-shift or rate leverage improves.
  • EPS Revisions (period counts)
    • 0q: upgrades 0, downgrades 9 within last 30 days; upgrades 0 in last 7 days
    • +1q: upgrades 0, downgrades 6 within last 30 days; downgrades 1 in last 7 days
    • 0y: upgrades 0, downgrades 4 within last 30 days; downgrades 1 in last 7 days
    • +1y: upgrades 0, downgrades 3 within last 30 days; downgrades 1 in last 7 days Interpretation: The consensus sentiment has shifted modestly to the negative side recently, with a higher cadence of downgrades in the near term. This aligns with the challenging near-term earnings perception and warrants sensitivity around near-term price moves.
  • Earnings Quality
    • Revenue growth appears stable with substantial gross and operating margins (Gross margin ~63-64%, Operating margin ~24-25%), but there are ongoing pressures from debt service and capital intensity typical of a large telecom. The Q2 2025 quarter shows solid earnings, but revisions tilt cautious near-term sentiment.

Technical Analysis (last 60 days)

  • 50-Day Moving Average (MA)
    • Latest 50-day MA around 243 (the dataset shows MA values in the mid- to high-240s in late Sep/early Oct; e.g., 2025-09-30 MA ~244.3, 2025-10-09 MA ~242.9, with close around 226.2 on 2025-10-09)
    • Price (226.2 on 2025-10-09) is well below the 50-day MA, signaling short-term weakness and a bear-leaning setup.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI around 26.6 (oversold territory), suggesting potential near-term bounce risk if buyers come in and if fundamentals remain supportive.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • Latest MACD around -4.6 with Signal around -3.6, indicating bearish momentum still in control as of the latest reading, though there are periods of prior improvement in the MACD spread.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst targets data provided: None (empty JSON). Therefore, the explicit Low/Median/High consensus targets are not in the provided data.
  • Coverage: Not disclosed in the provided dataset.
  • Implication: Without published consensus targets in the data, the price targets used for charting (210/240/275) are our derived levels for sensitivity analysis, based on current valuation and the earnings/revisions data.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 240
    • Justification: Neutral-to-bullish baseload given an oversold RSI near-term, potential for a near-term bounce if macro/tech sentiment improves and TMUS maintains stable earnings quality (gross margin and operating margin remain robust, EPS near current levels with modest sequential changes).
    • Key drivers: potential technical short-covering bounce, stabilizing ARPU growth, and any near-term positive catalysts (industry dynamics, cost controls, or favorable tariff/ARPU trends).
    • Risk: Further negative revisions or macro risk could push price toward the 210 low line.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 275
    • Justification: Base-case improvement in sentiment with continued cash flow generation, modest margin resilience, and potential multiple-leaning re-rating as leverage remains manageable and dividend supports total return.
    • Key drivers: stabilization of EPS revisions, continued cash generation, and relatively resilient dividend yield appealing to income-focused investors.
    • Risk: Higher debt service costs (if rates rise), regulatory/tariff pressures, competition, or weaker-than-expected subscriber additions could dampen upside toward 260–275.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 320
    • Justification: If TMUS sustains long-run margin stability, accelerates data monetization, and executes on network investments with favorable capex efficiency, the consistent cash flow and potential deleveraging could support higher multiples.
    • Key drivers: structural growth in wireless, enterprise services, potential monetization of new capabilities, and capital allocation that favors shareholder returns.
    • Risk: The long horizon is sensitive to debt load, regulatory shifts, competition, and slower-than-expected ARPU growth.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • High debt-to-equity ratio; interest-rate sensitivity could pressure cash flow and debt service.
    • Negative EPS revisions momentum in the near term as shown in the revisions data.
    • Technical weakness (price well below 50-day MA, bearish MACD) could extend drawdown if buyers don’t re-emerge.
    • Competitive pressure and regulatory/tariff dynamics in telecom can affect margins and ARPU trajectories.
  • Opportunities
    • Oversold RSI suggests potential near-term bounce if fundamentals hold and macro risk eases.
    • Stable margins and robust telecom cash flow can support dividend resilience and capital returns.
    • If TMUS accelerates data monetization and cost discipline, multiple expansion could occur toward the mid-to-high 200s or beyond.

Investment Recommendation

  • Stance: Hold to overweight with a cautious tilt given near-term revisions risk and macro sensitivities.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months.
  • Expected return potential: Approximately mid-single digits to low-teens on the median scenario, with higher upside (roughly 15–25%+) if the high target region (275–320) becomes realizable, but with downside risk if earnings revisions worsen or debt service pressure intensifies.
  • Rationale: The near-term oversold condition and solid fundamental footprint (healthy gross/operating margins, stable revenue base) support a constructive view, but near-term earnings revisions and valuation dynamics warrant a measured stance. The target lines (210/240/275) provide a risk-managed framework for potential downside protection (210) and upside capture (275) within a 30–60 day extension, while longer-term targets suggest additional upside if the earnings quality and balance sheet improve.

Technical Visuals Recap

  • 50-day MA is approximately 243 as of late Sep/early Oct, with TMUS trading around 226, indicating near-term downside pressure relative to the 50-day trend.
  • RSI is in oversold territory (last read around 26.6), implying potential counter-moves if buyers come back.
  • MACD remains negative with a widening gap vs the signal, signaling ongoing bearish momentum, though historical positives show the potential for a reversal should momentum shift.

Appendix: Data References (from the provided datasets)

  • Earnings Summary (quarter ended 2025-06-30): Net Income 3.222B; EBITDA 8.348B; Revenue 21.132B; Diluted EPS 2.84
  • EPS Trend (periodic): Current 0q EPS 2.39829; 7d ago 2.41798; 30d ago 2.8142; 60d ago 2.81757; 90d ago 2.81494; 0y 10.4007; +1y 12.34381 (context: period baselines vary in the dataset)
  • EPS Revisions (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y): Downgrades outpace upgrades in the recent windows (e.g., 0q: 9 downgrades in last 30 days; other periods show downgrades dominating)
  • Technicals: 50-day MA around mid-240s; RSI last reading 26.6; MACD last reading around -4.6 with Signal -3.6

If you’d like, I can:

  • Tweak the Low/Median/High price targets (210/240/275) to reflect a different risk tolerance or scenario (e.g., base-case, bull-case, bear-case).
  • Add alternative horizon targets (e.g., 6–9 months) aligned to a different target set.
  • Update the price target lines with explicit timestamps or adjust the extension horizon.

Would you like me to adjust the price targets or update any section of the analysis with a different scenario?

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