T-Mobile US, Inc. Stock Price Targets

TMUS Comprehensive Price Target Analysis (as of 2025-10-08)

Note: Horizontal trendlines for Low, Median, and High price targets have been drawn and extended 30 days into the future using TMUS as the ticker.

• Low Target line (green): 200.00
  • Line ID: 0086ff5308744f05b230e4a5207b1972
• Median Target line (orange): 275.00
  • Line ID: 0360ed1fc6764100b4e54cd8c7ae9643
• High Target line (red): 309.00
  • Line ID: d644a638707047c698c4ff57e799f727

Executive Summary

• TMUS trades around $227.68 with a balanced but debt-heavy financial profile. The current stock price sits well below the 50-day moving average, RSI is in oversold territory, and MACD remains bearish, flagging near-term downside risk with potential for a bounce if sentiment improves.
• Price targets imply meaningful upside: a median target of $275 (+21% implied 12-month upside) and a high target of $309 (+36%). The low target sits at $200 (~-12% downside vs. today).
• With 28 analysts covering the stock, the consensus range (200–309) shows room for upside, but near-term risk remains due to leverage and macro/competitive dynamics.

Fundamental Analysis Key metrics (as provided)

• Price / Valuation
  • Current price: 227.68
  • Market cap: 256.24B
  • Enterprise value: 364.66B
  • Trailing P/E: 21.50
  • Forward P/E: 21.34
  • Price to Book: 4.20
  • PEG ratio: not provided
• Returns and profitability
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 19.74%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 5.77%
  • Profit margin: 14.53%
  • Gross margin: 63.68%
  • Operating margin: 24.67%
• Leverage and liquidity
  • Debt to equity: 194.22
  • Total cash: 10.26B
  • Total debt: 118.68B
  • Net cash/debt position: net debt ≈ 108.42B (debt exceed cash by a wide margin)
• Dividend and beta
  • Dividend yield: 1.79%
  • Beta: 0.58
• Observations
  • The company shows healthy margins and EBITDA scale but carries a very high debt burden relative to cash. The leverage profile implies sensitivity to interest rate changes and capex cycles. The dividend provides some income but is modest relative to the leverage risk.

Analyst Targets and Coverage

• Number of analysts: 28
• Current price: 227.68
• Target Low / Median / High / Mean
  • Low: 200.00
  • Median: 275.00
  • High: 309.00
  • Mean: 274.14
• Implication: The consensus range suggests a reasonable runway for upside, with the median implying roughly +21% to +22% over the next 12 months, assuming the current price path.

Recent Earnings Summary (selected items)

• Normalized EBITDA
  • 2025-06-30: 8.348B
  • 2025-03-31: 7.952B
  • 2024-12-31: 7.829B
  • Trend: EBITDA has shown a steady incremental improvement into mid-2025, supporting operating cash flow strength.
• Net Income From Continuing Operations (Net income)
  • 2025-06-30: 3.222B
  • 2025-03-31: 2.953B
  • 2024-12-31: 2.981B
  • 2024-09-30: 3.059B
  • 2024-06-30: 2.925B
  • 2024-03-31: 2.0B (approximate from the data; note this period has missing complete details for some lines)
• EBITDA, Operating Income, and Gross Margin
  • EBITDA remains robust and above the 7.8–8.3B range across the quarters shown.
  • Operating income fluctuates in the mid-4B range, consistent with a large, capital-intensive telecom operation.
  • Gross margin around 63.7% confirms a high-margin product mix, albeit offset by heavy operating and SG&A expenses.
• Diluted EPS
  • 2025-06-30: 2.84
  • 2025-03-31: 2.58
  • 2024-12-31: 2.61
  • 2024-09-30: 2.61
  • 2024-06-30: 2.49
  • 2024-03-31: 2.0
• Takeaway: Both EBITDA and EPS improved into mid-2025 vs earlier periods, but year-over-year EPS growth is modest in the face of continued high leverage and potential interest expense pressures.

EPS Trend

• Trailing trend (period vs. current):
  • 0q (latest): 2.408
  • 0q 7 days ago: 2.495
  • 0q 30 days ago: 2.814
  • 0q 60 days ago: 2.818
  • 0q 90 days ago: 2.807
  • +1q (next quarter): 2.364
  • +1q 7 days ago: 2.417
  • +1q 30 days ago: 2.645
  • +1q 60 days ago: 2.627
  • +1q 90 days ago: 2.558
• Interpretation: The near-term EPS levels show a recent downtrend from the 2.8–2.6 range to the low-2.4s, indicating softer quarterly earnings momentum in the latest period, though the quarter-over-quarter comparisons need to consider seasonal effects in telecom earnings.

EPS Revisions (Analyst sentiment changes)

• 0q: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 0, downLast30days 9, downLast7Days 1
• +1q: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 0, downLast30days 6, downLast7Days 1
• 0y: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 0, downLast30days 4, downLast7Days 1
• +1y: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 0, downLast30days 3, downLast7Days 1
• Interpretation: Analysts have been downgrading EPS modestly across multiple periods in recent periods. There have been few upgrades, indicating cautious sentiment around near-term earnings upside.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

• 50-Day Moving Average (MA)
  • Latest 50-day MA: 243.4–243.6 range (last shown is 243.4 on 2025-10-07)
  • Current price: 227.68
  • Implication: Price is trading about 15–16 points below the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term weakness and a potential bounce would need catalysts to overcome the MA resistance.
• RSI (14)
  • Latest RSI (2025-10-07): 26.8
  • Interpretation: RSI indicates oversold conditions, which could precede a near-term bounce if momentum reverses.
• MACD (12,26,9)
  • Latest MACD (2025-10-07): -4.3
  • Signal: -3.1
  • Interpretation: Bearish momentum remains in place as MACD is below the signal; lack of a bullish cross reduces near-term upside unless price strength improves.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

• Coverage: 28 analysts
• Current price: 227.68
• Targets (Low/Median/High):
  • Low: 200.00
  • Median: 275.00
  • High: 309.00
• Target Mean: 274.14
• Interpretation: A substantial portion of the distribution sits above the current price, with a median target in the mid-270s. The high target of 309 offers upside potential if wireless-market dynamics improve and debt considerations are managed.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

• Price target: 200–275 (low to median)
• Current price vs targets: 227.68 vs 275 median implies ~+21% upside on the median target if momentum improves in the near term; downside risk to ~-11.7% to 200 if negative catalysts prevail.
• Justification and drivers:
  • Oversold RSI and negative near-term momentum (MACD below zero) could lead to a bounce toward the median target, particularly if there is a positive development in 5G monetization and cost control.
  • Near-term catalysts include continued wireless subscriber growth, stabilization of ARPU, and buybacks or capital allocation clarity.

Mid-Term (12 months)

• Price target: 275 (median) with upside to 309 (high)
• Upside from current price: ~21% to 275; ~36% to 309
• Justification and drivers:
  • Continued EBITDA strength and cash flow generation support valuation upside, provided debt levels are managed and capex remains under control.
  • Potential catalysts: improved wireless churn dynamics, network monetization (e.g., new unlimited/5G plans with clearer profitability), and potential debt refinancing/cost control measures.
  • Analyst sentiment remains cautious given downgrades in EPS revisions, so upside requires positive earnings surprises and better-than-expected FCF generation.

Long-Term (3+ years)

• Price target framework: 309 (high) as a possible longer-term bull-case upside
• Rationale:
  • If TMUS sustains healthy margins and FCF growth while leveraging its network advantages, there could be multiple expansion opportunities beyond the 12-month horizon, especially if leverage is gradually de-risked and debt servicing becomes more manageable.
  • Risks include macro pressure, competition (Verizon, AT&T), potential capex intensification, and regulatory shifts.
• Caveat: The data provided does not include explicit long-range earnings or cash-flow forecasts, so the long-term target primarily reflects upside scenarios implied by the high analyst target.

Key Risks & Opportunities

• Key Risks
  • High leverage: Total debt ($118.7B) vs. cash ($10.3B) creates substantial interest expense risk and refinancing sensitivity.
  • Revenue/Competition: Telecom markets are intensely price-competitive; any pricing pressure could pressure margins.
  • Regulatory and spectrum risk: Spectrum ownership and regulatory changes could impact capex plans and financing.
  • Economic cycles: A softer macro backdrop could depress consumer spending on wireless services.
• Key Opportunities
  • EBITDA and FCF generation: The normalization and scale of EBITDA support potential deleveraging and capital returns.
  • Network monetization: Successful 5G monetization strategies and attractive value-added services can improve ARPU and margin structure.
  • Cost discipline: SG&A reductions and efficiency gains could lift operating margins toward the higher end of historical ranges.
  • Shareholder value: Dividend yield is modest (1.79%), with potential for share buybacks if cash flow improves.

Investment Recommendation

• Recommendation: Hold
• Rationale: The stock trades below the near-term moving average and has oversold momentum (RSI ~ 26.8), but the balance sheet remains heavily levered and EPS revisions show a bias toward downgrades. The price targets imply meaningful upside (median 275; high 309) over the next 12 months, but upside is contingent on improvements in earnings quality, deleveraging progress, and execution on cost controls and 5G monetization.
• Time horizon: 12–24 months
• Expected return potential (base-case): ~+20% to +25% (275 target vs. current 227.68)
• Optional upside (bull-case): ~+36% or more (309 target)
• Risks to watch: leverage/interest costs, capex intensity, competitive pricing, and macro conditions.

Technical Summary (practical takeaways)

• Current price vs technicals: 227.68 vs 50-day MA ~243.4 indicates near-term weakness with potential for a rebound if sentiment improves; oversold RSI and a negative MACD signal suggest a risk/reward skew toward a bounce rather than continued decline, but catalysts are needed.
• Trendlines drawn: Low 200, Median 275, High 309 (extended 30 days). These levels can act as support/resistance anchors as price evolves.

Earnings and EPS Reference Table (selected data)

• Fiscal quarters ending 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31, 2024-12-31, 2024-09-30, 2024-06-30, 2024-03-31
• EBITDA (B): 8.348; 7.952; 7.829; 7.?; 7.?; 7.?
• Operating Income (B): 5.213; 4.800; 4.586; 4.796; 4.630; 4.630
• Net Income (B): 3.222; 2.953; 2.981; 3.059; 2.925; N/A
• Diluted EPS: 2.84; 2.58; 2.61; 2.61; 2.49; 2.0

Notes on Data Confidence

• The earnings data provided spans multiple periods with some occasional missing values in the CSV (e.g., some EPS entries). The analysis above uses the clearly stated numbers and indicates where data gaps exist. Where precise quarterly values were not explicit, the narrative reflects the trend direction from the clearly stated figures.

Appendix: Markdown Tables (Key Data)

1. Valuation Snapshot

• Metric | Value
• Current price | 227.68
• Market cap | 256.24B
• Enterprise value | 364.66B
• Trailing P/E | 21.50
• Forward P/E | 21.34
• Price to Book | 4.20
• ROE | 19.74%
• ROA | 5.77%
• Profit margin | 14.53%
• Gross margin | 63.68%
• Operating margin | 24.67%
• Debt to equity | 194.22
• Total cash | 10.26B
• Total debt | 118.68B
• Dividend yield | 1.79%
• Beta | 0.58

2. Analyst Targets

• Number of analysts | 28
• Target Low | 200.00
• Target Median | 275.00
• Target High | 309.00
• Target Mean | 274.14

3. Recent Earnings Highlights (selected)

• Quarter ending 2025-06-30
  • EBITDA: 8.348B
  • Operating Income: 5.213B
  • Net Income: 3.222B
  • Diluted EPS: 2.84
• Quarter ending 2025-03-31
  • EBITDA: 7.952B
  • Operating Income: 4.800B
  • Net Income: 2.953B
  • Diluted EPS: 2.58
• Quarter ending 2024-12-31
  • EBITDA: 7.829B
  • Operating Income: 4.586B
  • Net Income: 2.981B
  • Diluted EPS: 2.61

4. EPS Trend (selected)

• 0q (latest): 2.408
• 0q 7d ago: 2.495
• 0q 30d ago: 2.814
• 0q 60d ago: 2.818
• 0q 90d ago: 2.807
• +1q: 2.365
• +1q 7d ago: 2.417
• +1q 30d ago: 2.645
• +1q 60d ago: 2.627
• +1q 90d ago: 2.558

5. EPS Revisions (selected)

• 0q: up7d=0, up30d=0, down30d=9, down7d=1
• +1q: up7d=0, up30d=0, down30d=6, down7d=1
• 0y: up7d=0, up30d=0, down30d=4, down7d=1
• +1y: up7d=0, up30d=0, down30d=3, down7d=1

6. Technical Indicators (latest)

• 50-day MA: ~243.4–243.6
• RSI (14): 26.8
• MACD: -4.3 (MACD), -3.1 (Signal)

If you’d like, I can provide an alternate distribution-based price-target analysis (e.g., probability-weighted returns) or run a sensitivity analysis around key drivers (subscriber growth, ARPU changes, and capex/debt refinancings) to quantify upside/downside scenarios.