Finance Halo
Company Overview
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) is a prominent entity in the sports and entertainment sector, primarily known for operating and promoting premier professional wrestling and mixed martial arts organizations, including WWE and UFC. The company's core business revolves around live entertainment events, media rights, and merchandise, positioning it as a significant player in the global sports entertainment landscape. TKO is a large-cap company with a considerable market presence and a strategic focus on leveraging its combined brand power for international growth.
Price Action Analysis
Daily Chart (3-month, 1-day interval): The daily chart shows TKO consolidating in a tight range between approximately $200 and $215 for a significant portion of the past three months. Recently, the stock has experienced a notable upward price movement, breaking out of this consolidation pattern. Volume on the breakout days appears to be elevated compared to the preceding consolidation period, suggesting increasing buyer interest and potentially confirming the breakout's validity. The candlestick structures indicate strong upward momentum following the breakout, with several consecutive bullish candles. Key resistance levels in the $215-$220 range were being tested and have now been surpassed.
Weekly Chart (2-year, 1-week interval): The weekly chart reveals a longer-term uptrend in TKO, with the stock generally progressing higher over the past two years, albeit with periods of consolidation. The recent price action on the daily chart represents a continuation of this broader upward trend, breaking out from a shorter-term consolidation. The overall volume trend on the weekly chart shows significant spikes during periods of upward price movement, which is consistent with accumulation. The stock has been trading above key moving averages for an extended period, further supporting the bullish long-term outlook.
News & Catalysts
- TKO Group Holdings (TKO) Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis: TKO reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.038 billion, surpassing estimates, but posted a GAAP EPS loss of -$0.08, missing expectations. This mixed performance has drawn varied analyst responses. (Source: Various Financial News Outlets, 2026-02-28)
- Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Following the earnings report, analysts have maintained a generally bullish stance. UBS raised its price target to $238.00 with a "Buy" rating, while Bernstein reiterated an "Outperform" with a $250.00 target. However, Seaport Global Securities downgraded TKO to "Neutral" due to valuation concerns, and MoffettNathanson maintained a "Neutral" rating with a revised price target of $190.00. (Source: Various Financial News Outlets, 2026-02-28)
- 2026 Guidance and Strategic Initiatives: TKO has provided 2026 guidance forecasting revenue between $5.675 billion and $5.775 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA between $2.240 billion and $2.290 billion. Key growth drivers include strong momentum in UFC and WWE, new media rights deals (like the Netflix agreement for WWE Raw), and the upcoming launch of Zuffa Boxing. (Source: Various Financial News Outlets, 2026-02-28)
These news items suggest that while TKO faces some valuation concerns and mixed earnings results, the long-term outlook remains positive for many analysts due to strong content, media deals, and strategic growth initiatives. The recent breakout in price action may be a reflection of this underlying optimism, despite some short-term headwinds.
Fundamental analysis
Key Financial Metrics & Valuation
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (TTM) | $4.74B | N/A |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $2.43B | N/A |
| Net Income (TTM) | -$0.04B | N/A |
| EPS (TTM) | -$0.24 | N/A |
| Market Cap | $24.50B | N/A |
Earnings & Estimates
| Metric | Latest Quarter (Q4'25) | Consensus Estimate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.038B | $1.02B | N/A |
| GAAP EPS | -$0.08 | $0.26 | N/A |
Analyst Estimates & Revisions
| Metric | Latest Estimate | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.725B (2026) | Positive |
| EPS | $1.50 (2026) | Mixed |
Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | $238.00 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | $250.00 |
| Seaport Global Sec. | Neutral | N/A |
| MoffettNathanson | Neutral | $190.00 |
| Average | Buy | ~$224.87 |
Key Takeaways:
- Valuation: TKO has a significant market capitalization. While revenue and gross profit show scale, the company is currently reporting a net loss and negative EPS on a TTM basis.
- Earnings: The most recent quarter showed a revenue beat but an EPS miss, indicating potential profitability challenges or one-off impacts.
- Estimates & Guidance: The company has provided 2026 guidance suggesting substantial revenue growth. However, analyst estimates for EPS show a mixed trend, and some analysts have expressed valuation concerns.
- Analyst Sentiment: Despite some reservations, the overall analyst sentiment leans towards "Buy," with several high price targets suggesting potential upside from current levels.
Market & Sentiment Context
Market Context: The broader entertainment and media sector has been dynamic, influenced by shifts in advertising spend, evolving consumer media consumption habits (streaming vs. traditional), and significant media rights deals. Companies with strong intellectual property and diverse revenue streams, like TKO, are generally well-positioned to navigate these trends. The current market environment might favor companies demonstrating robust content delivery and monetization strategies.
Catalysts:
- Media Rights Deals: The recent multi-billion dollar deal with Netflix for WWE Raw is a significant catalyst, ensuring substantial revenue and viewership for years to come.
- Strategic Growth Initiatives: The upcoming launch of Zuffa Boxing and continued expansion of UFC and WWE globally represent key growth avenues.
- Synergies: Realizing synergies between WWE and UFC assets post-acquisition is an ongoing narrative that could unlock further value.
- Event Performance: Strong performance and attendance at major events for both WWE and UFC can positively influence sentiment and revenue.
Investor Sentiment: The recent price action, characterized by a breakout from consolidation on increased volume, suggests a positive shift in investor sentiment. This could indicate accumulation by investors anticipating further upside, potentially driven by the aforementioned catalysts and the company's strong brand recognition. The mixed analyst ratings, however, show some caution regarding valuation, suggesting that while sentiment is turning positive, it's not universally exuberant.
Investment Outlook
TKO Group Holdings presents an interesting investment case, particularly for those bullish on the long-term prospects of the live sports and entertainment industry. The recent technical breakout, supported by strong volume, indicates that the stock may be poised for further upside. The company's strategic initiatives, including lucrative media rights deals and new ventures, provide clear avenues for growth.
However, investors should remain mindful of the potential risks, including valuation concerns cited by some analysts, the inherent cyclicality of the entertainment business, and the company's current profitability status.
Key Buy/Sell Levels
The current price for TKO is $223.87.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: The stock has just broken out of its prior consolidation range. The $225-$230 area could act as the next immediate resistance zone, given its proximity to the current price and historical price action.
- Key Support (Previous Resistance): The previous resistance level, around $215, has now likely transitioned into a support zone. This level was a significant barrier during the consolidation phase and its successful retest would confirm the strength of the breakout.
- Longer-term Resistance: Based on the weekly chart and analyst price targets, levels around $230-$250 represent significant upside potential and potential longer-term resistance.
Potential Upside Targets:
- Short-Term Target: A common method for breakout targets is to project the height of the prior consolidation range ($215 - $200 = $15) from the breakout point. This suggests a potential target around $215 + $15 = $230.
- Analyst Targets: As noted, several analysts have price targets ranging up to $250.00, indicating a belief in significant further upside if the breakout sustains.
Moving Averages: The 50-day moving average is currently around $208.0, and the 200-day moving average is around $187.5. The current price of $223.87 is trading well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which supports the bullish momentum.
Trendline Drawing:
- Support Trendline: I will draw a horizontal line at approximately $215.00 to represent the breakout level that should now act as support. This line will be extended to anticipate near-term movement.
- Resistance/Target Trendline: I will draw a horizontal line at approximately $230.00 to mark the initial upside target based on the consolidation breakout.
- Higher Resistance/Analyst Target: I will draw a horizontal line at approximately $250.00 to represent the upper range of analyst price targets and potential longer-term resistance.
Summary & Takeaways
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. has recently demonstrated a significant technical breakout from a multi-month consolidation period, accompanied by a noticeable increase in trading volume. This price action, coupled with strong underlying fundamentals such as lucrative media rights deals and strategic growth initiatives, paints a positive picture for the stock. The company operates in the robust sports entertainment industry, benefiting from strong brand recognition with WWE and UFC.
While the breakout is promising, investors should monitor the $215-$220 area as a key support level that was previously resistance. The immediate upside target is projected around $230, with further potential towards $250, aligning with analyst price targets. The stock is trading favorably above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bullish technical setup.
Key Considerations:
- Confirmation: Continued trading above $215 will be crucial for validating the breakout.
- Valuation: Some analysts express concerns about valuation, suggesting that any significant pullback could be an opportunity for cautious entry.
- Market Sentiment: Positive sentiment appears to be growing, driven by strong content and strategic partnerships.
Overall, TKO presents a compelling opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the ongoing strength in the sports entertainment sector, provided the current breakout momentum is sustained.