The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Stock Analysis - 2025-11-22
Comprehensive stock analysis for The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) including price targets, technicals, and outlook. Updated 2025-11-22.
Price Action Analysis
The daily chart shows a generally upward trend for TJX over the past three months, with a noticeable surge in price and volume around November 19th. After a period of consolidation and mixed trading, the stock experienced a significant breakout, indicated by a large green candlestick on high volume. This suggests strong buying interest. The weekly chart, spanning two years, also depicts a long-term uptrend. The recent price action on the daily chart appears to be a continuation of this trend, potentially with increased momentum due to recent events.
News & Catalysts
The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) recently announced strong third-quarter results, with net sales increasing by 7% year-over-year to $15.1 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. This positive performance was bolstered by a 5% rise in comparable store sales across all divisions. In response, several analysts have raised their price targets for TJX, with UBS notably increasing theirs to $181. These upgrades reflect confidence in the company's market share gains, robust earnings, and effective cost management, all supported by its off-price business model. The company's ability to attract customers seeking value, particularly in an inflationary environment, has been a key driver. However, some analysts caution that the current valuation may be considered high in relation to its near-term earnings growth. Additionally, there was a notable insider transaction where CEO & President Ernie Herrman sold over $8 million worth of shares.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
TJX Companies exhibits a mixed but generally positive financial profile. Key metrics show a robust Return on Equity (0.58) and a healthy profit margin (0.087), indicating efficient use of shareholder equity and profitability. However, the Debt-to-Equity ratio (140.98) is relatively high, suggesting significant leverage.
Financial Highlights (Annual)
| Metric | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $49,936,000,000 | $54,217,000,000 | $56,360,000,000 |
| Gross Profit | $13,787,000,000 | $16,266,000,000 | $17,248,000,000 |
| Operating Income | $4,860,000,000 | $6,046,000,000 | $6,559,000,000 |
| Net Income | $3,498,000,000 | $4,474,000,000 | $4,864,000,000 |
| Diluted EPS | $2.97 | $3.86 | $4.26 |
Quarterly Performance & Estimates
TJX has demonstrated consistent revenue and earnings growth. The most recent quarterly earnings per share (EPS) were $1.28, with analysts projecting further growth to $1.38 for the next quarter and $5.13 for the full year. Revenue estimates also show an upward trend. EPS revisions indicate more upward than downward adjustments in the past 30 days, suggesting positive analyst sentiment.
Analyst Recommendations & Price Targets
The summary of analyst recommendations shows a predominantly 'Buy' stance, with a few 'Hold' and 'Sell' ratings. The average price target is $158.26, with a high of $181 and a low of $90.
Key Takeaways:
- Growth: Consistent year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings.
- Profitability: Strong return on equity and healthy profit margins.
- Valuation: While P/E ratios suggest a potentially high valuation, analyst estimates point towards continued EPS growth.
- Analyst Sentiment: Generally positive, with a majority of 'Buy' ratings and an upward trend in price targets.
- Risk: High debt-to-equity ratio warrants monitoring.
Market & Sentiment Context
The retail sector, particularly off-price retailers like TJX, has benefited from consumers seeking value amid inflationary pressures. This broader trend provides a favorable backdrop for TJX's performance. The recent surge in trading volume and price suggests a positive shift in investor sentiment, likely driven by the strong Q3 earnings report and optimistic analyst outlook. This could indicate accumulation as investors recognize the company's resilience and growth potential in the current economic climate.
Investment Outlook
TJX presents a compelling investment case supported by consistent financial performance, a strong off-price retail model, and positive analyst sentiment. The recent price surge, coupled with high trading volume, suggests that the market is reacting favorably to the company's growth trajectory and its ability to navigate economic challenges. While the high debt-to-equity ratio is a point of consideration, the company's profitability and growth prospects appear to outweigh this concern for now.
Key Buy/Sell Levels
The current price of TJX is $151.43.
Support Levels:
- $140.00 - $142.00: This range previously acted as resistance and was then broken through. It is now expected to serve as a support level. This zone has been touched in the recent past (around early November).
- $135.00 - $137.50: This is a significant support zone identified from the daily chart, where the price found footing in late October. It has been touched.
Resistance Levels:
- $152.50 - $153.00: This level represents the recent high reached on the daily chart. A sustained break above this could signal further upward movement.
- $155.00: A psychological resistance level that may be tested if the upward momentum continues.
To visualize these levels, horizontal lines would be drawn. The support zones are identified based on previous price action where buying interest emerged, while resistance zones mark areas where selling pressure may increase.
Summary & Takeaways
TJX Companies is demonstrating strong performance, driven by robust sales, effective cost management, and a favorable market environment for off-price retailers. The recent spike in trading volume and price reflects positive investor reaction to its latest earnings report and the generally optimistic analyst outlook. While the company carries a significant amount of debt, its consistent revenue and earnings growth, along with a strong return on equity, present a positive investment case. Key support levels are identified around $140-$142 and $135-$137.50, while resistance is noted near the recent high of $152.50-$153.00 and the psychological level of $155.00. Investors should monitor the company's debt levels and its ability to maintain its growth momentum.