TD Stock Analysis: Bullish Trend Continues Above $85 Support
Explore TD Bank's strong uptrend, driven by earnings beats, buybacks, and positive analyst sentiment. Key support at $85, resistance near $90.
Price Action Analysis
The daily chart reveals a strong uptrend over the past three months, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The price has been consistently moving upwards, with occasional pullbacks that are quickly absorbed. Volume has generally been supportive of the price action, with notable increases on days with significant upward price movement. Several resistance levels appear to have been broken, suggesting increasing buying pressure. The candlestick patterns indicate bullish sentiment, with many sessions closing near their highs.
The weekly chart, spanning two years, confirms the longer-term bullish trend. While there was a period of consolidation and downtrend in late 2023 and early 2024, the stock has since embarked on a significant recovery and uptrend. The current price action on the weekly chart is reaching new highs, with strong upward momentum. Volume on the weekly chart also shows a supportive trend, with increased activity during upswings.
News & Catalysts
- "TD Bank shares jump on robust Q4 earnings beat" (Source: Reuters, December 2, 2025) - This headline suggests that TD Bank exceeded earnings expectations for the fourth quarter. Strong earnings often lead to increased investor confidence and can drive up the stock price, as seen in the recent upward movement.
- "Analysts upgrade TD Bank, citing strong loan growth and improved economic outlook" (Source: Bloomberg, November 28, 2025) - Positive analyst ratings and upgrades can attract more institutional and retail investors, further fueling the stock's ascent. The mention of strong loan growth and a positive economic outlook provides fundamental reasoning for the optimistic view.
- "TD Bank announces $5 billion share buyback program" (Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2025) - Share buybacks reduce the number of outstanding shares, which can increase earnings per share and signal management's confidence in the company's valuation. This news is a strong catalyst for positive price action.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis Summary
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) exhibits a solid financial standing with a current market capitalization of $151.2 billion and a P/E ratio of 10.56. The return on equity stands at a healthy 16.9%, indicating efficient use of shareholder investments.
Key Financials
| Metric | 2024 (Annual) | 2023 (Annual) | 2022 (Annual) | 2021 (Annual) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $56.26B | $51.52B | $45.76B | $42.27B |
| Net Income | $8.84B | $10.63B | $17.43B | $14.30B |
| Diluted EPS | $4.72 | $5.52 | $9.47 | $7.72 |
| Total Assets | $2.06T | $1.96T | $1.92T | $1.73T |
| Total Equity | $115.16B | $112.07B | $111.38B | $99.82B |
| Dividend Yield | 3.51% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Earnings and Estimates
TD Bank has demonstrated consistent revenue growth year-over-year. While net income and EPS saw a dip in 2024 compared to 2023, analyst estimates project a recovery and continued growth for the upcoming periods. Earnings estimates for the next quarter and fiscal year show positive growth rates of approximately 10.8% and 8.2% respectively. Revisions for EPS show more positive than negative adjustments, indicating a favorable outlook from analysts.
Analyst Recommendations and Price Targets
The current analyst sentiment leans towards a "Buy" or "Hold" stance, with a significant number of analysts recommending holding the stock. The average price target is $86.14, with a high of $94.82 and a low of $69.61. The current market price of $88.32 is above the average and median price targets, suggesting that the stock may be currently trading at a slight premium to consensus estimates.
Market & Sentiment Context
Market Context: The broader financial sector, particularly large-cap banks, have benefited from a generally stable to improving economic outlook and expectations of stable interest rates. Increased loan growth, as highlighted in analyst reports, is a positive sign for the sector.
Investor Sentiment: The recent price action, marked by higher highs and higher lows on both daily and weekly charts, coupled with supportive volume, suggests strong positive investor sentiment. The company's announcement of a significant share buyback program further bolsters this sentiment, indicating management's confidence in the company's value and future prospects. This points towards accumulation rather than distribution.
Investment Outlook
The Toronto-Dominion Bank presents a compelling investment case, supported by a strong uptrend, positive news flow, and a generally stable fundamental outlook. The recent earnings beat, analyst upgrades, and share buyback program act as significant catalysts. While the stock is trading slightly above the average analyst price target, the consistent revenue growth and positive earnings revisions suggest potential for further upside.
Key Buy/Sell Levels
The current price of TD is $88.32.
Support Levels:
- $85.00 - $86.00: This zone represents a significant area of previous resistance that has now likely transitioned into support. It was tested in early December and the price has since moved higher. The distance from the current price is approximately -$2.32 to -$3.32, or -2.6% to -3.8%. This level also coincides with the 50-day moving average, which is often a key indicator of short-to-medium term trend health.
- $78.00 - $80.00: This broader range acted as resistance in September and October before being decisively broken. It is now a crucial support zone. The distance from the current price is approximately -$8.32 to -$10.32, or -9.4% to -11.7%.
Resistance Levels:
- $90.00 - $92.00: This is the immediate psychological and technical resistance zone. A clear break and sustained move above this level could signal the continuation of the strong uptrend.
- $94.82: This represents the high end of the analyst price target range and could act as a significant psychological resistance.
I will draw the following trendlines:
- A horizontal support line around $85.00.
- A horizontal resistance line around $90.00.
These levels are visually represented on the chart as horizontal lines. The support at $85.00 has been tested and the price has rebounded, indicating its significance. The resistance at $90.00 is the next key hurdle for the bulls.
Summary & Takeaways
The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is currently in a strong uptrend, supported by positive fundamental news and a generally favorable market environment for financial institutions. The stock has shown consistent price appreciation, with supportive volume and strong analyst sentiment. Key support levels are identified around $85.00 and $78.00-$80.00, while resistance is observed near $90.00 and extending towards $94.82. Investors should monitor the $90.00 level for a potential breakout, which could signal further upward momentum. The stock's performance, coupled with its solid fundamentals and positive outlook, makes it an attractive investment candidate within the current market context.