AT&T Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for AT&T Inc. (T).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for AT&T Inc. (T).

Here is a comprehensive AT&T Inc. (T) analysis with the requested price-target drawings and a detailed, investor-focused write-up.

Drawing results

  • Low Target line: drawn at 20.71, color blue (#1E90FF), extending from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06.
  • Median Target line: drawn at 32.00, color green (#32CD32), extending from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06.
  • High Target line: drawn at 34.00, color orange-red (#FF4500), extending from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06.

Price targets used for the lines

  • Low Target: 20.71
  • Median Target: 32.00
  • High Target: 34.00

Executive Summary

  • Current price (25.87) sits below the 50-day moving average (around 28.5 as of 2025-10-06), and the RSI is deeply oversold (~10.1 on the latest 14-day read), suggesting near-term technical softness but potential for a quick rebound if sentiment improves.
  • Analyst targets imply meaningful upside from here: Low 20.71, Median 32.00, High 34.00, with a mean target of about 30.66 and 25 covering analysts. This points to a roughly 19% to 31% upside potential from current levels, depending on the scenario.
  • Fundamental setup shows AT&T trading at forward P/E ~11.5 with a dividend yield around 4.1%, below the 5-year average dividend yield, but the balance sheet remains heavily leveraged (debt-to-equity ~123) with cash ~10.6B. This creates a mixed backdrop: valuation looks attractive on a forward basis, but debt and cash flow durability are key risk factors to monitor.
  • Earnings landscape shows recent quarters with positive, but uneven, earnings momentum and revisions that skew modestly positive in recent periods. EPS current quarter (~0.536) remains materially lower than trailing-year levels (~2.06–2.22 for the past year), indicating quarterly volatility even as the company maintains profitability on a yearly basis.

Fundamental Analysis Key valuation and financial health metrics

  • Market capitalization: $184.98B
  • Enterprise value: $353.01B
  • Trailing P/E: 14.78
  • Forward P/E: 11.55
  • Price to book: 1.76
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 11.5%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 4.17%
  • Profit margins: 10.29%
  • Gross margins: 59.66%
  • Operating margins: 22.73%
  • Debt to equity: 123.2
  • Total cash: $10.57B
  • Total debt: $151.99B
  • Dividend yield: 4.1%
  • Five-year average dividend yield: 6.69%
  • Beta: 0.62 (lower-than-market beta suggests less volatility vs. broader market)
  • Recent price context: current price is around 25.87, with the market pricing in a modest growth/modest yield story rather than a high-growth narrative.

Table: Key Valuation and Financial Health Metrics

  • Note: All figures are rounded to two decimals where applicable.

Metric | Value

  • Trailing P/E | 14.78
  • Forward P/E | 11.55
  • Price to Book | 1.76
  • ROE | 11.5%
  • ROA | 4.17%
  • Profit Margin | 10.29%
  • Gross Margin | 59.66%
  • Operating Margin | 22.73%
  • Debt to Equity | 123.19
  • Total Cash | $10.57B
  • Total Debt | $151.99B
  • Dividend Yield | 4.10%
  • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 6.69%
  • Beta | 0.62

Earnings Analysis Recent earnings summary (selected highlights)

  • Quarter ending 2025-06-30:
    • Normalized EBITDA: $13.004B
    • EBITDA: $13.004B
    • EBIT: $7.753B
    • Net Income from Continuing Operations: $4.50B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.62
    • Basic EPS: $0.62
    • Total Revenue: $30.847B
  • Quarter ending 2025-03-31:
    • Normalized EBITDA: $13.343B
    • EBIT: $7.649B
    • Net Income from Continuing Operations: $4.351B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.61
    • Basic EPS: $0.61
    • Total Revenue: $30.626B
  • Quarter ending 2024-12-31:
    • Normalized EBITDA: $12.304B
    • EBIT: $6.969B
    • Net Income from Continuing Operations: $4.080B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.56
    • Basic EPS: $0.56
    • Total Revenue: $32.298B
  • Quarter ending 2024-09-30:
    • Normalized EBITDA: $12.614B
    • EBIT: $3.105B
    • Net Income from Continuing Operations: -$0.174B
    • Diluted EPS: -$0.03
    • Basic EPS: -$0.03
    • Total Revenue: $30.213B
  • Quarter ending 2024-06-30:
    • Normalized EBITDA: $12.312B
    • EBIT: $6.790B
    • Net Income from Continuing Operations: $3.597B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.49
    • Basic EPS: $0.49
    • Total Revenue: $29.797B

Earnings Quality Commentary

  • Revenue trajectory: 2024-06 to 2025-06 revenue ranges show mid- to high- $29B to low-$31B spots, with the latest quarter around $30.8B. The sequence indicates modest revenue stability with occasional quarterly variability.
  • Margins and profitability: Gross margins around 59.7% and operating margins near 22.7% suggest a structurally profitable business, albeit with cyclical and competitive dynamics in the telecom space.
  • Cash generation vs. cash needs: The company carries a sizable debt load relative to cash. The firm’s ability to sustain its dividend and fund capital needs will hinge on cash flow resilience, margins, and any potential restructuring or cost-savings initiatives.

EPS Trend

  • Current quarter (0q) EPS: 0.53641
  • 7 days ago: 0.53517
  • 30 days ago: 0.53569
  • 60 days ago: 0.53510
  • 90 days ago: 0.55787
  • +1q EPS: 0.45908
  • 0y (trailing 4-quarter EPS): 2.0564
  • +1y forward EPS: 2.21557

Interpretation

  • Short-term EPS has shown modest fluctuations around the mid-0.50s to low-0.60s, consistent with a mature telecom business facing cyclical revenue patterns.
  • Trailing twelve months’ (0y) EPS of about 2.06, rising toward 2.22 in the next year (plus-1y) scenario, indicates a low-to-moderate growth slope in earnings, supported by ongoing dividend cash flow.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q period: upLast7days = 2; upLast30days = 3; downLast30days = 1; downLast7Days = 0
  • +1q period: upLast7days = 1; upLast30days = 2; downLast30days = 1; downLast7days = 1
  • 0y period: upLast7days = 2; upLast30days = 4; downLast30days = 2; downLast7days = 0
  • +1y period: upLast7days = 0; upLast30days = 2; downLast30days = 4; downLast7days = 1

Interpretation

  • The revisions data show more upward revisions than downward in the near term (0q and 0y windows), suggesting some analyst optimism in coming quarters and the next year, though the +1y window shows more pullbacks, signaling uncertainty over a longer horizon.

Technical Analysis (Last ~60 Days Snapshot)

  • 50-Day Moving Average (MA): Latest values show MA around 28.5 (mid-July to early-October window). The price has recently traded below the MA (current ~25.87 vs MA ~28.5 in early October), signaling near-term weakness but potential for a rebound if momentum shifts.
  • RSI (14): Recent values show a pronounced drop to oversold levels (as low as ~10 in late September/early October), suggesting near-term downside exhaustion and potential for a relief rally.
  • MACD (12,26,9): Mostly negative MACD with continued downward pressure in recent readings, indicating bearish momentum near term.
  • Price action context: Price-friendly catalysts would include stabilization in operating metrics, favorable revisions, and a return above the 50-day MA to confirm a shift in momentum.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 25.87
  • Target Low / Median / High: 20.71 / 32.00 / 34.00
  • Number of Analysts: 25
  • Target Mean Price: 30.66
  • Implied upside vs. current price:
    • To Median (32.00): about +23.6%
    • To High (34.00): about +31.3%
    • To Low (20.71): about -19.8%
  • Market context: The mean target (~30.66) suggests consensus analysts expect a meaningful but modest upside over the near-to-intermediate term.
  • Potential catalysts: stable dividend coverage, any improvement in cash flow generation, synergy realization from scale, or favorable regulatory/industry dynamics.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: 32.00 (Median)
  • Justification:
    • Near-term EPS revisions show a tilt toward positive revisions in the 0q window, suggesting modest earnings momentum into the next quarter.
    • Valuation remains attractive on a forward P/E basis (~11.5x), with a robust dividend yield (4.1%) supporting downside protection.
    • Technicals: Oversold RSI conditions and a price near the lower end of the 50-day MA area could trigger a short-term rebound, especially if macro/sector sentiment improves.
  • Key drivers:
    • Stabilization of operating performance in the next reported quarter.
    • Continued cash flow strength supporting the dividend and potential buybacks.
    • Any positive change in regulatory or competitive dynamics that improves revenue stability.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 34.00 (High)
  • Justification:
    • If earnings momentum improves and leverage remains manageable, multiple expansion could drive the stock toward the high target.
    • Forward guidance and cash flow resilience are critical: a sustained dividend runway and potential distribution enhancements would support a higher valuation multiple.
  • Key drivers:
    • Sustained revenue stability and margin resilience.
    • Reduction in net interest burden or improved financing terms.
    • Positive secular tailwinds in telecom (e.g., data-driven services, 5G/6G network monetization) and potential cost-savings initiatives.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 34.00 (proxy for a long-horizon upside scenario, given available official targets)
  • Justification:
    • The explicit data set provides a 32.00 median and 34.00 high—these imply a near-term horizon framing. Without additional explicit long-horizon targets, the long-term case would depend on durable earnings growth, continued dividend sustainability, and potential capital structure improvement.
  • Key drivers and considerations:
    • Structural debt load remains a key overhang; sustained cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation would be required for meaningful long-horizon upside.
    • Evaluation could hinge on macro dynamics, cost discipline, and any strategic pivots that unlock additional free cash flow.
    • Any potential buyback or capital return enhancements over the long term could help support a higher multiple.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks
    • Heavy debt load and interest expense pressure; debt-to-equity well above typical telecom peers.
    • Dividend sustainability risk if cash flow becomes constrained; despite a 4.1% yield, the five-year average is much higher (6.69%), signaling potential concerns if cash generation falters.
    • Competition, regulatory changes, and potential pressure on traditional voice/data margins.
    • Economic downturns reducing consumer/spending on services and devices.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Consistent dividend policy with a focus on cash flow generation; potential for dividend maintenance or modest increases if cash dynamics improve.
    • Operational efficiency gains and cost-cutting could improve margins and free cash flow.
    • Continued stabilization of revenue streams in a mature telecom environment, with potential monetization of data-driven services.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Rationale:
    • The stock trades at a reasonable forward multiple relative to earnings potential, but the balance sheet remains heavily levered.
    • The near-term technical picture is oversold and could present a snapback, but a sustained uptrend would require improved cash flow stability and debt management.
    • The median price target ($32.00) offers a potential upside of about 23% from current levels, but the long-term upside hinges on continued earnings resilience and capital allocation effectiveness.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: ~+12% to +30% depending on the scenario (conservative to upside case). The path to material upside would require a combination of earnings stability, dividend coverage, and a potential re-rating of the stock based on improved balance sheet dynamics.

Technical indicators recap (for quick reference)

  • 50-day MA (recent): ~28.5; price (latest): ~25.87; price is below MA, indicating near-term weakness with possible rebound if momentum improves.
  • RSI (14): Very oversold (~10.1) in the most recent read, implying potential for a bounce.
  • MACD: Negative signal; ongoing bearish momentum in the near term.

Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions – Quick Reference

  • EPS Trend snapshot:
    • 0q EPS: ~0.536
    • +1q EPS: ~0.459
    • 0y EPS: ~2.056
    • +1y EPS: ~2.216
  • EPS Revisions (0q): UpLast7Days=2, UpLast30Days=3, DownLast30Days=1, DownLast7Days=0
    • (+1q): UpLast7Days=1, UpLast30Days=2, DownLast30Days=1, DownLast7Days=1
    • (0y): UpLast7Days=2, UpLast30Days=4, DownLast30Days=2, DownLast7Days=0
    • (+1y): UpLast7Days=0, UpLast30Days=2, DownLast30Days=4, DownLast7Days=1
  • Earnings Quality Highlights (selected)
    • Revenue: 30.8–30.6B in recent quarters; 32.3B in 2024-12-31
    • Net income (continuing ops): ~$4.0–4.5B across most quarters; one quarter negative for 2024-09-30
    • Diluted EPS: mostly in the $0.56–$0.62 range in recent quarters
    • EBITDA/EBIT: positive trends with sizable quarterly variability

Important data sources referenced (high level)

  • Current price, market capitalization, EV, and leverage metrics
  • Analyst targets and mean price target
  • Recent earnings summary and line items (EBITDA, EBIT, net income, EPS, revenue)
  • EPS trends and revisions
  • Technical indicators: 50-day MA, RSI, MACD (last 60 days)
  • 50-day MA trajectory and current price proximity
  • RSI and MACD readouts indicating momentum

If you’d like, I can:

  • Re-run or adjust the price-target lines with alternate color schemes or line styles (e.g., dashed for the High).
  • Build a more formal quarterly earnings sensitivity model using the provided quarterly data to quantify potential upside from each earnings driver.
  • Create a one-page investment memo with a quantified upside/downside scenario around the three targets.

Would you like me to add a sensitivity table showing upside/downside for each price target based on different assumed EPS growth rates or revenue scenarios?

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