S&P Global Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI).

Below is a comprehensive SPGI (S&P Global Inc.) analysis, including the requested horizontal price target lines drawn on the chart and a detailed multi-section investment thesis.

Price Target Lines Drawn

  • Low Target: 540 (green) extended from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01
  • Median Target: 620.50 (blue) extended from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01
  • High Target: 661.00 (red) extended from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01

Notes on the lines:

  • The three horizontal lines are drawn to the right edge of the chart (30 days forward from today) at the specified target levels.
  • Colors used: Low (green #2ECC71), Median (blue #3498DB), High (red #E74C3C).
  • Ticker: SPGI

Executive Summary

  • SPGI remains a high-quality, moats-embedded data and analytics provider with strong profitability and cash generation.
  • The current price (~481.67) sits well below the analyst target range (540 to 661) with a median around 620.50, implying 12%–37% potential upside to the analyst targets over the next several months to a year.
  • Key near-term signals are mixed: price trades below the 50-day moving average and has shown a pronounced RSI drop into oversold territory, while analyst sentiment and earnings revisions show a combination of downgrades and upgrades across different horizons.
  • The stock offers upside potential on improved earnings delivery and market demand for data/analytics, but is exposed to macro cyclicality and multiple-compression risk if earnings momentum slows.

Fundamental Analysis Key metrics at a glance

  • Current price: 481.67
  • Market cap: ~$148.7B
  • Enterprise value: ~$161.8B
  • Trailing P/E: 37.45
  • Forward P/E: 28.65
  • Price-to-Book: 4.40
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 11.29%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 6.26%
  • Profit margin: 27.29%
  • Gross margin: 69.56%
  • Operating margin: 42.69%
  • Debt/Equity: 31.65
  • Total cash: ~$1.85B
  • Total debt: ~$12.01B
  • Dividend yield: 0.79%
  • Five-year average dividend yield: 0.81%
  • Beta: 1.202

Valuation context and implications

  • The forward P/E of ~28.65 reflects expectations of continued earnings strength but at a lower multiple than the trailing P/E, implying multiple expansion is not the sole driver of value—earnings growth is a critical component.
  • EV/EBITDA and other leverage/coverage metrics are not provided here, but SPGI's strong margins and cash generation support a relatively resilient financial profile despite a modest leverage stance (debt-to-equity ~32%).

Earnings Analysis Recent earnings performance (selected highlights from the provided data)

  • Total revenue (approximate):
    • 2025-06-30: ~$3.755B
    • 2025-03-31: ~$3.778B
    • 2024-12-31: ~$3.592B
    • 2024-09-30: ~$3.575B
    • 2024-06-30: ~$3.549B
    • 2024-03-31: around the same range (noted as present)
  • Diluted EPS:
    • 2025-06-30: 3.50
    • 2025-03-31: 3.54
    • 2024-12-31: 2.85
    • 2024-09-30: 3.11
    • 2024-06-30: 3.23
    • 2024-03-31: 3.23
  • Net income (continuing operations, after minority interest):
    • 2025-06-30: ~$1.072B
    • 2025-03-31: ~$1.090B
    • 2024-12-31: ~$0.880B
    • 2024-09-30: ~$0.971B
    • 2024-06-30: ~$1.011B
    • 2024-03-31: ~$1.011B
  • Normalized EBITDA (latest quarters show ~$1.849B to ~$1.878B; trailing around mid-$1.8B)
  • Operating income: ~1.537B – ~1.575B in the recent quarters
  • Net income in the last reported quarters hovered near $1.07B–$1.09B, reflecting a stable core profitability profile.

EPS Trends

  • Quarter-to-quarter dynamics (current vs. prior):
    • 0q (current): 4.278 EPS
    • 7 days ago: 4.266
    • 30 days ago: 4.286
    • 60 days ago: 4.289
    • 90 days ago: 4.263
    • Interpretation: modest positive momentum in the latest period with some volatility in the near term.
  • Year-over-year (0y vs. +1y):
    • 0y: 17.249 (TTM-like context)
    • +1y: 19.271
    • Interpretation: meaningful year-over-year growth in aggregate earnings, consistent with a higher earnings base and continued margin strength.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q period (most recent): upLast7D=0, upLast30D=1, downLast30D=2, downLast7D=1
  • +1q period: upLast7D=1, upLast30D=2, downLast30D=0, downLast7D=0
  • 0y period: upLast7D=1, upLast30D=4, downLast30D=2, downLast7D=1
  • +1y period: upLast7D=2, upLast30D=5, downLast30D=1, downLast7D=0
  • Interpretation: Near-term revisions show a tilt toward downgrades in the immediate window (0q), but longer-horizon revisions (+1q, 0y, +1y) show more upgrades, suggesting improving sentiment for the next 12–24 months. Net, revisions have been mixed but a positive tilt appears at longer horizons.

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action: 481.67, well below the 50-day moving average (MA) around the mid- to high-500s as of early October 2025. Last 50-day MA values show a rising trend into late Sep/early Oct 2025, but SPGI traded significantly below it, signaling near-term weakness.
  • 50-day MA trend: Approximate MA near 536–537 in late Sep 2025, rising toward 540–540+ around early Oct 2025; price remains underperforming versus this MA, indicating a bearish short-term setup.
  • RSI (14): The RSI series shows a broad move from overbought readings in July into deeply oversold territory by late September/early October (as low as around 10.5 on 2025-10-01). This extreme oversold condition suggests potential near-term bounce risk (a short-term reversal could occur), but oversold RSI alone is not a buy signal if price/volume conditions remain weak.
  • MACD (12,26,9): Recent MACD readings deteriorated into negative territory with a progressive decline, signaling ongoing bearish momentum. The MACD line has declined sharply versus the Signal line in late Sep through early Oct 2025, reinforcing a downside tilt in the near term.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 481.67
  • Number of analysts (covering SPGI): 22
  • Target Low / Mean / Median / High:
    • Low: 540
    • Mean: 618.68
    • Median: 620.50
    • High: 661
  • The mean/median targets imply a potential upside of roughly 28–37% versus the current price, with a base-case near-mean target around 620.50 (≈29% upside).
  • Implicit implied forward earnings (based on forward P/E ~28.65 and current price): roughly 16.7–17.0 forward earnings per share (depending on exact denominator used). This aligns with a scenario where SPGI maintains solid earnings growth but is not priced as a cheap name by traditional valuation metrics.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 540 (Low)
    • Upside vs current: ~12.1%
    • Rationale: The stock is severely oversold on the RSI and is trading well below the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term bounce potential. Support around the mid-500s may offer a floor before a potential test of the 540 level. Key drivers could include stabilization in macro conditions or a soft-but-better-than-expected quarterly update, along with a possible short-term short-squeeze.
    • Risks: If market sentiment remains bearish or earnings trajectory disappoints, the stock could drift toward the low-500s or test 480–490 support zones.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 620.50 (Median)
    • Upside vs current: ~28.8%
    • Rationale: This aligns with the published analyst consensus where the median sits at 620.50 and reflects assumptions of steady or improving earnings growth, continued demand for SPGI’s data and analytics, and potential multiple expansion as visibility on 2026 earnings improves.
    • Key drivers: Sustained operating margins, continued robust cash flow, favorable pricing dynamics for data and analytics, and a reasonably resilient macro backdrop. Potential catalysts include earnings results that beat expectations, stronger-than-expected 2025 guidance, and continued share repurchase activity.
    • Risks: Upside could be limited if earnings growth slows, competition intensifies, or valuations compress due to macro risk or a broader market drawdown.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 661 (High)
    • Upside vs current: ~37.2%
    • Rationale: The high target reflects optimistic but reasonable conviction among analysts on SPGI’s durable competitive position, recurring revenue base, and continued demand for high-margin data, risk assessment improvements, and global market penetration.
    • Key drivers: Structural growth in information services and data analytics, expansion into adjacent data products, potential acquisitions or partnerships that enhance data capabilities, and sustained margins and ROIC.
    • Risks: Longer-term risk includes macro cycles, regulatory/regulatory-like scrutiny in data-heavy businesses, potential pricing pressure in a commoditized data services space, and the risk of a protracted earnings slowdown.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Macro slowdown reducing corporate spend on data/analytics and risk/compliance services.
    • Valuation risk: current multiples imply a high cushion for any deviation in earnings growth.
    • Competitive pressure from new entrants or adjacent tech-enabled data platforms.
    • Regulatory risks in data-heavy sectors and cross-border data usage could influence margins or cap growth.
  • Opportunities
    • Durable profitability with high margins and strong free cash flow supports dividends and buybacks.
    • Ongoing demand for high-quality financial data, benchmarks, and analytics could unlock solid revenue growth.
    • Potential share repurchases and efficiency improvements could lift per-share metrics over time.
    • Potential expansion into new data products and subscription-based services could improve ARR-like metrics and revenue visibility.

Investment Recommendation

  • Stance: HOLD
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • Upside scenarios are attractive, with median/high price targets implying 28–37% potential upside from current levels, supported by robust margins, a solid balance sheet, and a relatively stable earnings engine.
    • Near-term timing is uncertainty-laden: the stock is currently well below the 50-day MA, and the RSI indicates oversold conditions. MACD is negative, suggesting continued bearish momentum in the near term.
    • The combination of oversold conditions with improving longer-term revisions and a favorable earnings trajectory supports a patient-hold stance rather than an aggressive buy now.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 12% (short-term bounce to the 540 level) to ~37% (high-case, to 661) depending on macro sentiment, earnings delivery, and multiple expansion.

Appendix: Key Data Tables (condensed)

  • Valuation snapshot

    • Current price: 481.67
    • Market cap: $148.7B
    • Enterprise value: $161.8B
    • Trailing P/E: 37.45
    • Forward P/E: 28.65
    • P/B: 4.40
    • ROE: 11.29%
    • ROA: 6.26%
    • Profit margin: 27.29%
    • Gross margin: 69.56%
    • Operating margin: 42.69%
    • Debt/Equity: 31.65
    • Total cash: $1.85B
    • Total debt: $12.01B
    • Dividend yield: 0.79%
    • 5-year avg dividend yield: 0.81%
    • Beta: 1.202

  • Analyst price targets

    • Target Low: 540
    • Target Mean: 618.68
    • Target Median: 620.50
    • Current price: 481.67
    • Number of analysts: 22
    • Target High: 661

  • EPS trend notes

    • 0q EPS: 4.278
    • 0y (TTM-like): 17.249
    • +1y: 19.271
    • Revisions (0q): up last 30d = 1, down last 30d = 2
    • Revisions (+1y): up last 30d = 5, down last 30d = 1

  • Technical snapshot (selected)

    • 50-day MA (late Sep–early Oct 2025): ~536–537
    • RSI (14) behavior: dropped to oversold levels (~10.5 by 2025-10-01)
    • MACD (12,26,9): negative trend resumed into late Sep/early Oct 2025

If you’d like, I can provide a one-page executive slide version of this analysis, or add a sensitivity table showing how the target multipliers shift with alternative earnings growth assumptions (e.g., +5%, +10% forward EPS scenarios).

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