The Charles Schwab Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW).

Below is a comprehensive analysis for The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) using the data you provided. Per your request, I’ve also drawn horizontal lines for the Low, Median, and High price targets and extended them 30 days into the future.

Horizontal price target lines (drawn)

  • Low Target: 86.00 (color: green)
    • Extends from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target: 110.00 (color: orange)
    • Extends from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
  • High Target: 130.00 (color: red)
    • Extends from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09

Technical drawing notes: The three horizontal lines have been plotted on the active price chart and extended 30 days forward from today (2025-10-10). Colors differentiate each level (Low/Green, Median/Orange, High/Red).

Executive Summary

  • Thesis: SCHW trades at a modest discount versus its growth-capable peers, supported by strong profitability, ample liquidity, and a cash-rich balance sheet. The current price around the mid-90s sits below the near-term target path implied by analyst estimates, with upside potential if earnings momentum and revisions stay constructive. The three price targets (86/110/130) imply a potential path from current levels to a broad upside scenario, especially if the company sustains revenue growth and margin discipline while capital markets tailwinds improve investor sentiment toward financials.
  • View: Hold to Moderate Buy bias near-term given the stock trades near the 50-day moving average and under a scenario of improving or stable earnings revisions and macro conditions. Longer-term upside remains contingent on sustained profitability, balance-sheet efficiency, and favorable rate and monetary policy dynamics.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key metrics (as provided)
    • Price: 94.02
    • Market Cap: 170.67B
    • Enterprise Value: 150.22B
    • Trailing P/E: 25.27
    • Forward P/E: 24.74
    • Price to Book: 3.996
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 15.60%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 1.60%
    • Profit Margin: 33.68%
    • Gross Margin: 97.19%
    • Operating Margin: 47.91%
    • Debt to Equity: 111.87
    • Total Cash: 82.11B
    • Total Debt: 55.32B
    • Dividend Yield: 1.15%
    • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield: 1.26%
    • Beta: 0.966
  • Interpretation
    • Valuation: A trailing P/E around 25x and forward P/E near 24.7x places SCHW in the higher end of the financials spectrum, which often reflects strong profitability and cash generation. The price-to-book near 4x aligns with a solid tangible asset base in a sector where book value can support stability.
    • Balance sheet and leverage: A very high debt-to-equity ratio (111.87) combined with substantial cash (82.11B) suggests a leveraged but liquid capital structure. The sizable cash cushion reduces near-term liquidity risk, though the high leverage could weigh on ROE if rates or asset returns move unfavorably.
    • Cash flow and margins: High gross and operating margins alongside a double-digit ROE indicate robust profitability. The dividend yield is modest, implying ongoing capital return to shareholders but not heavy yield support.
  • Tables
    • Summary metrics (selected items)
      MetricValue
      Current Price94.02
      Market Cap170.67B
      Enterprise Value150.22B
      Trailing P/E25.27x
      Forward P/E24.74x
      P/B3.996x
      ROE15.60%
      ROA1.60%
      Profit Margin33.68%
      Gross Margin97.19%
      Operating Margin47.91%
      Debt/Equity111.87
      Total Cash82.11B
      Total Debt55.32B
      Dividend Yield1.15%
      Beta0.966
  • Earnings Context
    • Net Income from continuing operations (latest quarters shown): 2.126B (2025-06-30), 1.909B (2025-03-31), 1.84B (2024-12-31), 1.408B (2024-09-30), 1.332B (2024-06-30)
    • Diluted EPS (latest): 1.08 (2025-06-30), 0.99 (2025-03-31), 0.94 (2024-12-31), 0.71 (2024-09-30), 0.66 (2024-06-30)
    • Trend suggests EPS growth through 2025 with positive momentum relative to the prior year, albeit quarterly volatility remains in line with a financial services franchise with sensitivity to rates and spreads.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Performance

  • The company delivered multi-quarter growth in net income from continuing operations, with quarterly diluted EPS rising from 0.66 (2024-06-30) to 1.08 (2025-06-30). This points to a constructive earnings trajectory over the last year.

EPS Trends

  • 0q (most recent): EPS 1.23298; 7d ago 1.21874; 30d ago 1.21267; 60d ago 1.21028; 90d ago 1.11805
  • +1q: 1.26778; 7d ago 1.26114; 30d ago 1.25746; 60d ago 1.25687; 90d ago 1.17267
  • 0y: 4.65357; 7d ago 4.63691; 30d ago 4.62388; 60d ago 4.62052; 90d ago 4.39812
  • +1y: 5.43299; 7d ago 5.44160; 30d ago 5.43347; 60d ago 5.43186; 90d ago 5.17419
  • Interpretation: EPS has shown positive momentum in the latest quarter vs prior periods, with meaningful year-over-year growth in trailing periods. The blended annual numbers (+1y) indicate continued profitability expansion.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: Up Last 7 Days = 3; Up Last 30 Days = 4; Down Last 30 Days = 1; Down Last 7 Days = 1
  • +1q: Up Last 7 Days = 4; Up Last 30 Days = 4; Down Last 30 Days = 1; Down Last 7 Days = 0
  • 0y: Up Last 7 Days = 3; Up Last 30 Days = 5; Down Last 30 Days = 1; Down Last 7 Days = 0
  • +1y: Up Last 7 Days = 1; Up Last 30 Days = 3; Down Last 30 Days = 4; Down Last 7 Days = 3
  • Interpretation: Short- and medium-term revisions are broadly positive (more upgrades than downgrades in the near horizon), while 1-year revisions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, suggesting some uncertainty about longer-term earnings trajectories.

Technical Analysis Current Price Action and Key Levels

  • The stock trades around the 50-day moving average, with current price near 94 and the 50-day MA around mid-95s (latest MA values shown around 95.1–95.5 in recent data)
  • Latest price action (as of 2025-10-09) is slightly below the 50-day MA, which is a near-term bearish/neutral signal depending on price response around the MA.
  • RSI (14) sits in the mid-range recently, around 32–60 at various points; latest reading near 48.9 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
  • MACD is around near-zero levels with a slight negative tilt in the latest period, suggesting limited momentum strength at the moment but no clear bearish cross.

Moving Average Analysis (50-Day)

  • Sample of 50-day MA trajectory (selected recent dates) | Date | Close | 50-Day MA | | 2025-07-17 | 92.8 | 88.6 | | 2025-07-18 | 95.5 | 88.9 | | 2025-07-21 | 96.0 | 89.1 | | 2025-10-09 | 94.0 | 95.1 |
  • Interpretation: The 50-day MA has risen over the period while the price has remained near or slightly below it. A move above the 50-day MA could add bullish confirmation, while continuing price weakness below could reflect consolidation or potential near-term downside risk.

RSI Momentum

  • RSI values over the last 60 days show periods of strength (above 60) and weakness (below 40). The latest readings around 49–53 in recent windows indicate a neutral stance, with room to trend higher if price strength resumes.

MACD

  • MACD values remain around neutral territory, with the latest read near -0.2 and the signal near -0.2 as well. No persistent bullish MACD divergence is evident in the provided data.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current Price: 94.02
  • Coverage: 20 analysts
  • Target High: 130.00
  • Target Low: 86.00
  • Target Median: 110.00
  • Target Mean: 109.20
  • Interpretation: The consensus indicates a favorable bias toward multiple-year upside from current levels, with a mid-point around 110 and a high target of 130. The distribution of targets around 110–109.2 suggests a modest upside from current levels, with broader upside optionality at the high end if earnings momentum accelerates.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)

    • Target: Approximately 110 (median), with a potential range around 100–112 depending on near-term earnings revisions and macro data.
    • Justification: Positive near-term EPS momentum, and near-term revisions have shown net upgrades (more Up revisions than Down revisions in the last 30–60 days). The price is currently near the 50-day MA, which could act as a launching pad for a move higher if earnings momentum continues and sentiment improves.
    • Key Drivers: Sustained EPS growth, continued positive revisions, stable rate environment, and any near-term catalysts from quarterly results or guidance.

  • Mid-Term (12 months)

    • Target: Around 110–112 (median to mean)
    • Justification: The baseline analyst targets imply a constructive view over the next year, supported by improving or stable profitability metrics, healthy cash flows, and a balance sheet with significant liquidity. A move toward 110 would imply a mid-term earnings trajectory that sustains above current level and, potentially, expansion in multiples on continued earnings quality.
    • Key Drivers: Stable or improving net interest income, disciplined expense management, and ongoing capital efficiency; a stable rate environment that supports net interest margins and deposit growth could be supportive.

  • Long-Term (3+ years)

    • Target: 130 (high case)
    • Justification: The high target of 130 reflects a scenario where SCHW delivers sustained revenue growth, margin expansion, and an attractive risk-adjusted return profile relative to peers. The long-term case would require durable earnings growth, continued strong profitability, and multiple expansion supported by cash generation, balance-sheet strength, and dividend policy.
    • Key Drivers: Structural growth in assets under management, continued market share gains, efficiency improvements, and favorable regulatory environment enabling scalable profitability; favorable capital allocation (share repurchases/dividends) can support upside.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks

    • Margin pressure from competitive deposits and funding costs if interest rates rise or volatility persists.
    • Regulatory and compliance risk inherent to a large financial services firm, with potential for incidental costs from litigation and compliance.
    • High reported leverage (Debt/Equity) could pose constraints under tighter liquidity conditions or rate volatility, even with substantial cash reserves.
    • Macro shocks and equity market downturns could reduce AUM and revenue, pressuring earnings stability.

  • Key Opportunities

    • Strong liquidity position and cash reserves enabling strategic buybacks or opportunistic investments.
    • Potential multiple expansion if earnings revisions trend higher and risk sentiment toward financials improves.
    • Accretive growth potential in fee-based revenue (AUM-related fees), wealth management, and capital markets activities as investor activity rebounds.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold to Buyable (Moderate Buy) with a preferred near-term focus on earnings momentum and line-of-sight catalysts.
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected Return Potential: Approximately 8–20% in a constructive scenario, with upside risk if the high target of 130 is reached due to sustained earnings upgrades and multiple expansion. The low target at 86 provides a downside risk guardrail around -8% to -9% from current levels.
  • Rationale
    • The stock trades around 94 with a median analyst target of 110, suggesting a potential 17% upside under a baseline scenario.
    • The 50-day moving average sits near 95, and the stock is fluctuating around this level; a positive earnings cycle that pushes revisions higher and delivers stronger margins could catalyze a re-rating.
    • The near-term risk is balanced by substantial cash reserves, robust profitability, and a defensible dividend policy. The key risk remains macro sensitivity and leverage constraints under certain rate regimes.

Price Target Summary (Data Reference)

  • Current Price: 94.02
  • Analyst Targets: Low 86.00, Median 110.00, High 130.00
  • Target Means: Mean 109.20
  • Implied Upside/Downside vs Current (approximate):
    • Low: -8.5% to -9.0%
    • Median: +16% to +17%
    • High: +38% to +39%
  • These figures are consistent with a scenario where earnings momentum and revisions drive multiple expansion, with significant upside potential if the high target and long-run earnings growth materialize.

Appendix: Data References (Key Points)

  • Price and multiples: Current price 94.02; Trailing P/E 25.27; Forward P/E 24.74; P/B 3.996
  • Balance sheet: Total Cash 82.11B; Total Debt 55.32B; Debt/Equity 111.87
  • Profitability: Profit Margin 33.68%; Operating Margin 47.91%
  • Dividends: Yield 1.15%; Five-Year Avg 1.26%
  • EPS Trends (latest quarters): 2025-06-30 Diluted EPS 1.08; 2025-03-31 0.99; 2024-12-31 0.94
  • EPS Trend (yearly): 0y EPS 4.65357; +1y EPS 5.43299
  • EPS Revisions (near-term): Near-term upgrades exceed downgrades (0q and +1q periods show positive revisions)
  • Technicals: 50-day MA ~95; RSI ~50s; MACD near 0

Notes on Methodology

  • The price targets (Low/Median/High) are treated as explicit levels for charting and scenario analysis. The LINE chart is extended 30 days to the future from 2025-10-10 as requested.
  • All numerical data presented reflects the figures you supplied. Where applicable, I included concise interpretation and cross-referenced earnings, revisions, and technical indicators to provide a coherent near-term and longer-term view.

If you’d like, I can expand the Price Target Analysis with scenario modeling (e.g., revenue/margin sensitivity, rate scenarios, and broader market conditions) or tailor the analysis for different investment horizons (e.g., a more aggressive bull case or a more conservative base case).

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