Starbucks Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX).

Here is a comprehensive SBUX analysis with the requested horizontal trendlines drawn and a detailed price-target framework.

Horizontal trendlines drawn (Low, Median, High)

  • Low Target: 73.00
    • Color: #1E90FF (Dodger Blue)
    • p1 time: 2025-10-10T00:00:00Z
    • p2 time: 2025-11-09T00:00:00Z
    • Line ID: c65143763d4a42ccbd5abfc42dd7e4dc
  • Median Target: 97.50
    • Color: #32CD32 (Lime Green)
    • p1 time: 2025-10-10T00:00:00Z
    • p2 time: 2025-11-09T00:00:00Z
    • Line ID: 48e898ae95fe4d4d845f8a4ddda17c86
  • High Target: 115.00
    • Color: #FF4500 (Orange Red)
    • p1 time: 2025-10-10T00:00:00Z
    • p2 time: 2025-11-09T00:00:00Z
    • Line ID: 11b3704aae774043a4944b450151e1e5

Executive Summary

  • SBUX is currently trading near 79.78, with a clear upside implied by the consensus price targets. The median analyst target is 97.50 (+~22%), and the high target is 115 (+~44%). The low target is 73 (slightly below the current price, implying modest near-term risk).
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E around 21.4x against a trailing P/E of ~34.5x, with a forward multiple that compresses to more reasonable growth expectations. Dividend yield sits around 3.1%.
  • Technicals show the stock trading below its ~50-day moving average (MA around mid-80s) with RSI in the mid-30s–mid-40s range recently, and MACD negative, suggesting near-term weakness but potential for a mean-reversion as fundamentals and earnings momentum improve.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Current price: 79.78
    • Market cap: 90.69B
    • Enterprise value: 114.39B
    • Trailing P/E: 34.54
    • Forward P/E: 21.45
    • Price-to-Book: -11.77 (negative PB is explainable by certain accounting conventions; equity base and retained earnings dynamics can produce negative PB for some firms with large cash flows vs. book equity)
    • Dividend yield: 3.10%
    • Five-year avg dividend yield: 2.15%
    • Beta: 0.998
  • Financial health
    • Total cash: 4.51B
    • Total debt: 27.91B
    • Margin profile: Gross margin 23.74%; Operating margin 9.51%; Net profit margin 7.18%
    • Returns: Return on assets 7.57% (ROA)
    • Cash flow and balance sheet strength appear steady but debt levels are meaningful; cash is positive but near-term restructuring or working-capital needs should be watched.
  • Business quality and growth drivers
    • Global footprint with beverage/food growth, digital and loyalty program expansion, and store-level efficiency initiatives.
    • Margin discipline and scale benefits can support mid-cycle margin improvement if revenue growth re-accelerates.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter shown: 2025-06-30)
    • Total Revenue: 9.456 billion
    • Gross Profit: 2.156 billion
    • EBITDA: 1.409 billion
    • EBIT: 0.961 billion
    • Operating Income: 0.899 billion
    • Net Income (continuing ops): 0.558 billion
    • Diluted EPS: 0.49; Basic EPS: 0.491
    • Net Income: 0.558 billion
    • Notable items: Tax effect of unusual items -6.61 million; Tax rate for calc ~31.8%
  • Prior quarters for context
    • 2025-03-31: Revenue 8.762B; Gross Profit 1.848B; EBITDA 1.064B; EBIT 0.658B; Net Income 0.384B; Diluted EPS 0.338
    • 2024-12-31: Revenue 9.398B; Gross Profit 2.305B; EBITDA 1.582B; EBIT 1.149B; Net Income 0.781B; Diluted EPS 0.687
  • EPS Trend (directional view)
    • Current: 0.5649
    • 7 days ago: 0.5652
    • 30 days ago: 0.5810
    • 60 days ago: 0.5875
    • 90 days ago: 0.6887
    • On a forward/history basis, the next 1Q EPS is expected to be around 0.69 (per +1q line), with a trailing 1-year estimate around 2.65 and a longer-range 1-year forecast around 2.65–2.70. This hints at gradual acceleration in earnings into next year, subject to demand trends and cost control.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0Q period (latest): Up revisions: 1 in last 7 days; 1 in last 30 days; Down revisions: 8 in last 30 days; 7 in last 7 days
    • +1Q period: Up revisions: 1 in last 7 days; 2 in last 30 days; Down revisions: 6 in last 30 days; 5 in last 7 days
    • Net: More downgrades than upgrades, suggesting cautious near-term sentiment despite improving EPS trajectory in the longer view.
  • Earnings quality considerations
    • Revenue growth has been volatile quarter to quarter but the trend shows solid top-line scale.
    • Margins modestly expanding as cost controls and mix changes support profitability.
    • Earnings sustainability appears dependent on traffic, ticket size, efficiency (labor and store operations), and FX/cost dynamics.

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action
    • Price: 79.78
    • 50-day MA: around 86.8–87.3 (latest values show MA around 86.8–87.3; price remains below)
    • RSI (14) recent: mid-30s to mid-40s, implying modest oversold conditions in some snapshots, but persistent below-neutral momentum
    • MACD (12,26,9): Negative (MACD below Signal in the latest data), indicating near-term bearish momentum
  • Moving averages
    • The stock is trading below its 50-day MA, which is a bearish short- to mid-term signal; potential for a mean-reversion as macro/earnings momentum shifts.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI around 35–45 in recent observations indicates room for a bounce but not overbought conditions; MACD negative suggests selling pressure but not extreme.
  • Key levels to watch
    • Near-term support could emerge around mid-to-high 70s (psychological/round-number support) while the drawn low-target line at 73 provides a defined line in the sand.
    • Resistance near the 50-day MA (~87–88) and moving higher if the stock begins to re-accelerate.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 79.78
  • Number of analysts covering: 30
  • Target high: 115.00
  • Target low: 73.00
  • Median target: 97.50
  • Mean target: 97.63
  • Interpretation: The consensus portrays a constructive longer-term upside from the current level, with a broad range of 73–115 and a central view near 97.50–97.63. The median target implies ~22% upside in a 12-month horizon vs. current price, while downside is limited by a relatively tight low-target near 73.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 73.00
    • Rationale: Near-term risk factors include mixed sentiment from EPS revisions (net downgrades in the last 7–30 days) and a stock price trading below the 50-day MA. A pullback to test recent support around the 73 region is plausible if macro sentiment or earnings headlines disappoint.
    • Key drivers: Near-term technician support at 73, potential macro weakness, and any negative revisions flow.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 97.50
    • Rationale: The median analyst target reflects multi-quarter earnings re-acceleration, stable cash generation, and margin discipline as cost controls and mix shift mature. Valuation at forward earnings multiples around 21x plus growing cash flow supports a ~22% upside from current levels.
    • Key drivers: Revenue growth from international expansion and beverage mix, ongoing digital/loyalty improvements, store-level productivity, and margin expansion.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 115.00
    • Rationale: The high target embodies continued long-run growth in unit economics, international footprint expansion, and a sustained product/offering mix (premium beverages, food, and в digital platforms). If growth accelerates and margins expand further, the long-run upside could approach the high target.
    • Key drivers: Global footprint expansion (especially underpenetrated markets), enhanced loyalty economics, and continued efficiency gains; potential upside from pricing power amid inflation and premiumization.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Macro consumer sensitivity and non-cyclical discretionary spending is an ongoing risk.
    • EPS revisions showing more downgrades than upgrades in recent periods imply near-term investor skepticism.
    • Competition in the premium coffee space and store occupancy costs pressure margins; FX headwinds in some markets could weigh on results.
    • A stronger-than-expected pushback in consumer traffic or a slow digital adoption could cap upside.
  • Opportunities
    • Margin expansion through store productivity, supply chain optimization, and digital channel revenue growth.
    • Accelerating beverage and food mix improvements and higher average ticket.
    • International expansion, especially in Asia-Pacific regions, with potential for scalable top-line growth.
    • Loyalty program monetization and higher frequency of visits could lift same-store sales growth.

Investment Recommendation

  • Stance: Hold to Buy with a constructive 12–24 month upside, but with near-term caution.
  • Time horizon guidance
    • Near-term (3–6 months): Watch for a potential test of the 73 support level or a bounce if 50-day MA support together with RSI movement supports a rebound.
    • Medium-term (9–12 months): Upside to the median target around 97.5 is plausible as earnings momentum stabilizes and margins improve.
    • Long-term (3+ years): The high target 115 presents a potential upside if international growth accelerates, premiumization continues, and efficiency gains accrue.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months)
    • Moderate to strong upside: approximately +22% to +44%, depending on whether the stock trends toward the median or high targets, with risk-reward favorable if the stock reverts to the mid-cycle growth path.

Numerical Reference Tables

  • Key Valuation and Fundamentals

    • Current price: 79.78
    • Market cap: 90.69B
    • Enterprise value: 114.39B
    • Trailing P/E: 34.54
    • Forward P/E: 21.45
    • Price/Book: -11.77
    • Gross margin: 23.74%
    • Operating margin: 9.51%
    • Net profit margin: 7.18%
    • ROA: 7.57%
    • Total cash: 4.51B
    • Total debt: 27.91B
    • Dividend yield: 3.10%
    • Beta: 0.998

  • Analyst Targets and Coverage

    • Analysts: 30
    • Target high: 115.00
    • Target low: 73.00
    • Target median: 97.50
    • Target mean: 97.63

  • Earnings Summary (latest quarters)

    • 2025-06-30
      • Revenue: 9.456B
      • Gross Profit: 2.156B
      • EBITDA: 1.409B
      • EBIT: 0.961B
      • Operating Income: 0.899B
      • Net Income: 0.558B
      • Diluted EPS: 0.49
    • 2025-03-31
      • Revenue: 8.762B
      • Gross Profit: 1.848B
      • EBITDA: 1.065B
      • EBIT: 0.658B
      • Operating Income: 0.658B
      • Net Income: 0.384B
      • Diluted EPS: 0.338
    • 2024-12-31
      • Revenue: 9.398B
      • Gross Profit: 2.305B
      • EBITDA: 1.582B
      • EBIT: 1.149B
      • Operating Income: 1.149B
      • Net Income: 0.781B
      • Diluted EPS: 0.687

  • EPS Trend (as reported)

    • Current: 0.5649
    • 7 days ago: 0.5652
    • 30 days ago: 0.5810
    • 60 days ago: 0.5875
    • 90 days ago: 0.6887
    • +1Q forward view: 0.69216 (quarterly read)
    • 0Y: 2.16773
    • +1Y: 2.64986

  • EPS Revisions (recent activity)

    • 0Q: Up last 7 days: 1; Up last 30 days: 1; Down last 30 days: 8; Down last 7 days: 7
    • +1Q: Up last 7 days: 1; Up last 30 days: 2; Down last 30 days: 6; Down last 7 days: 5
    • 0Y: Up last 7 days: 1; Up last 30 days: 1; Down last 30 days: 10; Down last 7 days: 8
    • +1Y: Up last 7 days: 1; Up last 30 days: 1; Down last 30 days: 7; Down last 7 days: 7

  • Technical Snapshot (Last 60 Days)

    • 50-day MA around 86.0–87.3 (latest close under MA)
    • RSI (14) most recently around the mid-30s to mid-40s
    • MACD (12,26,9) negative in recent observations

Notes on the Trendlines

  • The three horizontal lines (73, 97.50, 115) were drawn as requested with a 30-day extension from today (2025-10-10) into 2025-11-09. They are color-coded for quick visual reference:
    • 73.00 (Blue) = potential near-term support/low target
    • 97.50 (Green) = central target, represents consensus/median upside
    • 115.00 (Orange) = upside/longer-term target

Bottom line

  • The market currently prices SBUX modestly above a near-term risk level but remains insulated by a solid long-term growth thesis and a reasonable forward multiple. The hitter for near-term action appears to be EPS revisions sentiment, while the larger investment case rests on margin expansion, international growth, and continued value creation via digital channels and loyalty monetization. The three fixed targets provide a structured upside framework (73/97.5/115) that aligns with risk management and reward potential over different horizons.
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