Starbucks Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX).
Here is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), incorporating the requested price-target drawings and a thorough examination of fundamentals, earnings, technicals, and analyst views.
Drawing note
- Horizontal lines were drawn for the Low (73.00), Median (100.00), and High (115.00) targets.
- Each line is extended 30 days into the future from 2025-09-17.
- Colors chosen to differentiate levels:
- Low Target (support): #32CD32 (green)
- Median Target (central target): #1E90FF (blue)
- High Target (resistance/upper target): #FF4500 (orange-red)
Price target lines (confirmed)
- Low Target: 73.0 (green)
- Median Target: 100.0 (blue)
- High Target: 115.0 (orange-red)
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: SBUX trades at a compelling combination of growth potential and cash-flow stability, with a meaningful upside from current levels to the analyst mean and higher targets. The stock’s forward earnings multiple and robust dividend yield support upside potential, while substantial debt remains a risk to monitor.
- Overall price outlook: Moderate upside in the near term with potential to reach ~99–100 over the next 3–12 months, and upside to ~115 under favorable growth and margin dynamics. Near-term technicals show some momentum headwinds, but earnings momentum and substantial buy-side coverage provide meaningful upside risk-adjusted potential.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Valuation Metrics (as of 2025-09-17)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 84.37 |
| Market Cap | 95,903,383,552 |
| Enterprise Value | 119,311,482,880 |
| Trailing P/E | 35.90 |
| Forward P/E | 22.68 |
| PEG Ratio | N/A |
| Price to Book | -12.44 |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | N/A |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 7.57% |
| Profit Margin | 7.18% |
| Gross Margin | 23.74% |
| Operating Margin | 9.51% |
| Debt to Equity | N/A |
| Total Cash | 4,505,900,032 |
| Total Debt | 27,906,600,960 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
| Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 2.14% |
| Beta | 0.984 |
Observations
- Valuation: Forward P/E of ~22.7 is reasonable for a premium consumer brand with global footprint and loyalty-driven revenue, though the trailing P/E (~35.9) hints at elevated expectations built into the multiple. The negative price-to-book ratio is a bookkeeping artefact (tangible equity is often dwarfed by intangibles and goodwill for a premium brand), not a practical finance caution.
- Debt profile: Substantial debt (
$28.0B) vs. cash ($4.5B) suggests a leveraged balance sheet; cash flow generation and dividend capacity are critical to monitor, especially given cost pressures and potential commodity volatility (coffee, dairy, packaging). - Margin framework: Consistent gross and operating margins around mid-to-high single digits to low double digits support cash flow strength, but ongoing wage rates, store-related costs, and commodity price changes remain important.
Earnings Analysis
Recent Earnings Summary (selected figures)
| Period Ending | Normalized EBITDA (USD) | Net Income From Continuing Ops (USD) | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS | Reconciled Depreciation (USD) | Gross Profit (USD) | Total Revenue (USD) | Operating Income (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 1,430,000,000 | 558,300,000 | 0.49 | 0.491 | 448,000,000 | 2,155,700,000 | 9,456,000,000 | 899,300,000 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1,180,900,000 | 384,200,000 | 0.338 | 0.338 | 435,300,000 | 1,848,000,000 | 8,761,600,000 | 658,100,000 |
| 2024-12-31 | 1,581,700,000 | 780,800,000 | 0.687 | 0.687 | 432,200,000 | 2,301,100,000 | 9,397,800,000 | 1,149,500,000 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1,735,100,000 | 909,200,000 | 0.800 | 0.802 | 401,400,000 | 2,381,700,000 | 9,073,900,000 | 1,255,000,000 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1,953,000,000 | 1,054,800,000 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 407,400,000 | 2,543,900,000 | 9,113,900,000 | 1,513,000,000 |
| 2024-03-31 | (data not fully shown) | (data not fully shown) | (data not fully shown) | (data not fully shown) | 380,400,000 | 2,433,900,000 | 9,113,900,000 | 1,? |
EPS Trend
- Trailing EPS dynamics show a meaningful lift into the latest periods: | Period | Current EPS | 7 days Ago | 30 days Ago | 60 days Ago | 90 days Ago | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 0.5810 | 0.5835 | 0.5875 | 0.6887 | 0.6941 | | +1q | 0.6916 | 0.6911 | 0.6931 | 0.7504 | 0.7613 | | 0y | 2.1948 | 2.1972 | 2.2086 | 2.4642 | 2.4570 | | +1y | 2.6988 | 2.7028 | 2.7579 | 2.9874 | 3.0183 |
EPS Revisions
- Near-term revisions show a mixed to cautious trend, with more downward revisions in the longer horizon: | Horizon | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | +1q | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | 0y | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | | +1y | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Interpretation
- Earnings momentum is positive in the near term, with improving quarterly EPS and higher normalized EBITDA in recent periods. However, revisions data indicates a heavier tilt toward downward revisions for longer horizons (+1y), suggesting investors should weigh longer-term growth assumptions carefully against current earnings strength.
Technical Analysis
Current price action and momentum
- Latest price: 84.37
- 50-day Moving Average (latest): ~89.8 (as of 2025-09-16 data)
- Price vs. 50-day MA: Price currently trades below the 50-day MA, indicating near-term bearish/neutral momentum given the MA acts as a dynamic resistance.
- RSI (14): Latest around 41.6 (mid-range to oversold territory is typically below 30; this value suggests modestly weak momentum rather than an extreme oversell).
- MACD (12,26,9): Negative MACD value (~-2.0) with a negative or flat signal line, pointing to bearish momentum in the short term.
Key levels
- Support: Around 84–85 zone (near current print) with deeper support near 80s seen in RSI/MACD context.
- Resistance: The 50-day MA (~89.8) provides a near-term resistance barrier; a move above ~90 would be a bullish development.
- The price target lines drawn at 73, 100, 115 provide additional strategic levels on the chart:
- 73 (green): strong downside magnet if negative momentum persists
- 100 (blue): mid-term focal point for upside realization
- 115 (orange-red): upper-end target in a favorable scenario
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
Analyst coverage and targets
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 84.37 |
| Target High | 115.00 |
| Target Mean | 98.7333 |
| Target Median | 100.00 |
| Target Low | 73.00 |
| Number of Analysts | 30 |
Percent upside vs current price (base on targets)
| Target | Price | Upside vs Current |
|---|---|---|
| Low (73) | 73.00 | -13.5% |
| Median (100) | 100.00 | +18.5% |
| Mean (98.73) | 98.73 | +17.0% |
| High (115) | 115.00 | +36.3% |
Drivers and catalysts
- Positive catalysts: improving same-store sales growth (SSS), ongoing digital/channel expansion, margin discipline, strong free cash flow supporting dividends and potential buybacks, and continued loyalty program traction.
- Risks: macro consumer weakness, input cost inflation (coffee, dairy, labor), store growth/development costs, currency headwinds, and competitive dynamics.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 98.7–100 range (consensus mean/median around 98.7–100)
- Rationale:
- Near-term EPS momentum improving (0.581 to higher prints in +1q), with +1q EPS showing strength (0.6916).
- Positive near-term revisions in the 0q/+1q horizons; the data show some upgrades in the near term (upLast7d/uplift signals), though longer horizons show more mixed revisions.
- Valuation remains supported by a forward P/E of ~22.7, a reasonable multiple given brand strength, margin stability, and cash generation.
- Key drivers:
- Sustained digital/channel growth and loyalty program monetization
- Operating leverage from store productivity and cost controls
- Continuation of dividend yield near 3% and potential cash flow improvements
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: around 105 (using a midpoint between mean 98.7 and high 115; with a continued pull from valuation and execution)
- Rationale:
- If the company continues to execute on SSS growth, international expansion, and margin discipline, a higher multiple and earnings growth trajectory can lift the stock toward the mean/high end.
- Analyst mean target sits at 98.7, but upside to 100–105 could occur if margins stabilize and cash generation accelerates.
- Key drivers:
- Margin stabilization and possible gross/operating margin improvement
- Strong cash flow supporting capital return
- Store expansion and international growth in APAC/EMEA regions
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 115 (reflecting the high-end analyst target)
- Rationale:
- Structural growth in the premium coffee and cafe concept, continued loyalty-driven revenue, and potential expansion into high-growth markets.
- Long-term upside would require sustainable margin expansion, successful international expansion, and ongoing digital monetization and price/mix benefits.
- Key drivers:
- Global expansion, product/mix evolution, and potential operating leverage from digital-first initiatives
- Resilient consumer demand for premium beverages and experiences
- Balance-sheet flexibility to fund growth and capital returns
Key Risks & Opportunities
Risks
- Macro sensitivity: consumer discretionary spending and macro headwinds could pressure same-store sales and traffic.
- Commodity and labor costs: coffee, dairy, packaging materials, and wage pressures could compress margins if not offset by pricing or productivity gains.
- Leverage risk: substantial debt burden could constrain financial flexibility in a rising-rate environment.
- Competitive dynamics: intensifying competition in the premium coffee space could pressure pricing, traffic, and loyalty metrics.
Opportunities
- Digital transformation and loyalty programs: continued monetization via app orders, customization, and targeted promotions.
- International expansion: growth opportunities in underpenetrated regions, potentially driving higher same-store sales and new store economics.
- Margin discipline: ongoing cost optimization and scale benefits to lift operating margins over time.
- Dividend capacity and capital allocation: healthy cash flow supports appealing dividend yield and potential buybacks.
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: Hold
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential: ~+15% to +25% base-case (to the 95–100 range), with upside risk toward 115 under favorable execution and market conditions.
- Rationale:
- The stock offers meaningful upside to the mean/target ranges based on analyst targets and the current earnings trajectory.
- Near-term technicals show some weakness (price below 50-day MA, MACD negative, RSI mid-40s), suggesting a waiting period for a clearer bullish setup.
- Given the debt load and the more cautious longer-horizon EPS revisions, a cautious stance is warranted, with a constructive path if fundamentals improve and the stock momentum confirms a rebound.
Technical Indicators Summary (latest data in context)
- Price: 84.37
- 50-day MA: ~89.8 (price below MA, modest near-term bearishness)
- RSI (14): ~41.6 (neither oversold nor overbought; room to move)
- MACD (12,26,9): Negative (bearish momentum)
Conclusion
- The current setup offers a favorable risk-reward: substantial upside from 84.37 to the 98.7–100 range in the near term, with a potential to reach 115 over a longer horizon if earnings momentum and margins improve and if investor sentiment strengthens.
- The three drawn price targets (73, 100, 115) provide clear blueprint levels on the chart, framing downside risk and upside potential within a disciplined target framework.
Earnings, EPS Trends, and Revisions (Reference)
- Recent earnings summary highlights:
- 2025-06-30: Normalized EBITDA 1.430B; Net Income From Continuing Operation 558.3M; Diluted EPS 0.49; Gross Profit 2.156B; Total Revenue 9.456B; Operating Income 0.899B; Depreciation 0.448B.
- 2025-03-31: Normalized EBITDA 1.181B; Net Income 0.384B; Diluted EPS 0.338; Operating Income 0.658B.
- 2024-12-31 to 2024-09-30: Consistent, with normalized EBITDA in the 1.58–1.74B range; Net Income From Continuing Ops in the 0.78–0.91B range; Diluted EPS in the 0.69–0.93 range.
- EPS trend snapshot:
- Current 0q EPS: 0.581; +1q: 0.692; 0y: 2.195; +1y: 2.699 (all figures in USD)
- The trajectory shows acceleration over yearly baselines, with meaningful growth in trailing and forward periods.
- EPS revisions snapshot:
- Short horizon (0q, +1q): net upgrades in near term (0–1 revisions up in the last 30–7 days)
- Longer horizon (0y, +1y): more downward revisions historically (4 downgrades in last 30 days for +1y), indicating more caution on longer-term outlook despite near-term strength.
Appendix: Data Tables
Analyst Targets and Coverage
| Current Price | Target High | Target Mean | Target Median | Target Low | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84.37 | 115.00 | 98.7333 | 100.00 | 73.00 | 30 |
Valuation Upside (vs current)
| Target | Price | Upside |
|---|---|---|
| Low (73) | 73.00 | -13.5% |
| Median (100) | 100.00 | +18.5% |
| Mean (98.73) | 98.73 | +17.0% |
| High (115) | 115.00 | +36.3% |
Notes on Targets Used in Analysis
- Low Target: 73.00
- Median Target: 100.00
- High Target: 115.00
References to Provided Data
- Earnings: 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31, 2024-12-31, 2024-09-30, 2024-06-30, 2024-03-31 data provided (Normalized EBITDA, Net Income From Continuing Op, EPS, etc.)
- EPS Trend: current and historical EPS figures provided (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y)
- EPS Revisions: revisions data provided (upLast7days, upLast30days, downLast30days, downLast7Days)
- Technical Indicators: 50-day MA, RSI, MACD data provided for 60 days.
If you’d like, I can export a one-page summary memo with the three price targets plotted on a chart image (with the 30-day extension) or tailor the short/mid/long-term price targets to specific macro scenarios (e.g., higher/lower commodity costs, store expansion pace) and provide scenario-based upside/downside bands.