SAP SE Stock Price Targets

Below is a comprehensive SAP (SAP) analysis as of 2025-10-03, incorporating the requested price target drawing and a full fundamental, earnings, and technical review. Horizontal lines have been drawn on the price chart for the Low (306.00), Median (342.00), and High (375.00) targets and extended 30 days into the future (to 2025-11-02). Colors used: Low target (green), Median target (blue), High target (red).

Prices used for the lines:

• Low Target: 306.00 (green)
• Median Target: 342.00 (blue)
• High Target: 375.00 (red)

Executive Summary

• SAP sits in a high-quality software franchise with robust profitability and strong cash generation. The stock trades at a premium multiple vs. peers, supported by solid margins and a respectable balance sheet.
• Near-term price action is mixed: price (~271.91) sits below the near-term 50-day moving average (~273.5) with RSI around the 66 level and a recently modest MACD; this suggests a cautious stance in the short run, but the rhythm of earnings and revisions could re-energize upside into the next 12 months.
• Analysts’ consensus targets imply meaningful upside from today’s level, with a median target of 342 and a high of 375, indicating a potential 26%–39% upside depending on the scenario and execution of catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

• Valuation and Market Position
  • Current price: 271.91
  • Market cap: 316.67B
  • Enterprise value: 315.64B
  • Trailing P/E: 41.32
  • Forward P/E: 40.28
  • Price to Book: 7.72
  • PEG ratio: not provided (null)
  • Beta: 0.901 (moderately less volatile than the market)
• Profitability and Returns
  • Net profit margin: 18.23%
  • Gross margin: 73.80%
  • Operating margin: 28.46%
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 15.84%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 8.73%
• Financial Health
  • Total cash: $10.18B
  • Total debt: $8.75B
  • Debt to equity: 21.13
  • Dividend yield: 0.94% (five-year average dividend yield: 1.49%)
• Cash Flows and Margin Sustainability
  • Consistent gross profit generation with strong operating leverage (operating margin ~28.5%), supporting ongoing dividends and potential buybacks.

Analyst Price Targets

• Current price: 271.91
• Target Low: 306.0
• Target Median: 342.0
• Target High: 375.0
• Target Mean: 342.0
• Number of Analysts: 12

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected metrics)

• Quarter end 2025-06-30 (most recent in the data)
  • Net Income (continuing operations): 1.697B
  • Net Income: 1.697B
  • Diluted EPS: 1.44
  • Basic EPS: 1.45
  • EBITDA: 3.089B
  • EBIT: 2.770B
  • Total Revenue: 9.027B
  • Operating Income: 2.474B
  • Gross Profit: 6.620B
  • R&D: 1.618B
  • Selling, General & Administrative (SG&A): 2.517B
  • Net Income (including noncontrolling interests): 1.749B
• Quarterly comparison highlights a stable earnings base with modest quarter-to-quarter EPS changes:
  • 2025-03-31 Diluted EPS: 1.51
  • 2024-12-31 Diluted EPS: 1.36
  • 2024-09-30 Diluted EPS: 1.24
  • 2024-06-30 Diluted EPS: 0.75
• Note: The company shows a notable oscillation in quarterly EPS across the years, but the latest quarter demonstrates a meaningful level of profitability above the mid-2024 period, aided by robust gross and operating margins.

EPS Trend

• 0q (latest quarter in the data): 1.713
  • 7 days ago: 1.717
  • 30 days ago: 1.721
  • 60 days ago: 1.721
  • 90 days ago: 1.811
• +1q: 1.909
  • 7 days ago: 1.897
  • 30 days ago: 1.888
  • 60 days ago: 1.888
  • 90 days ago: 1.972
• 0y (year-ago level): 7.039
  • 7 days ago: 7.032
  • 30 days ago: 7.035
  • 60 days ago: 7.035
  • 90 days ago: 7.103
• +1y: 8.467
  • 7 days ago: 8.377
  • 30 days ago: 8.375
  • 60 days ago: 8.375
  • 90 days ago: 8.292 Interpretation: Near-term EPS (0q) is relatively modest on a per-share basis; the trailing year (+1y) EPS indicates substantial annual earnings growth from the prior year. The trend suggests improved profitability in the most recent periods but near-term quarterly EPS has shown some fluctuations.

EPS Revisions

• 0q: UpLast7days 0, UpLast30days 0, DownLast30days 1, DownLast7Days 1
• +1q: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 1, DownLast30days 0, DownLast7Days 0
• 0y: UpLast7days 0, UpLast30days 0, DownLast30days 1, DownLast7Days 1
• +1y: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 1, DownLast30days 0, DownLast7Days 0 Takeaway: There have been a few downgrades in prior periods (0q, 0y), with a pattern of upgrades more recently in the +1q and +1y horizons. Overall revisions show a modest tilt toward positive sentiment in the near-to-medium term.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

• 50-Day Moving Average (MA)
  • Latest: 50-day MA around 273.5 (last data point 2025-10-02 shows Close 271.9 with MA 273.5)
  • Observation: The price is slightly below the 50-day MA, suggesting a cautious near-term trend and potential for a short-term pullback or a test of support near the MA.
• RSI (14)
  • Latest: 65.9 (2025-10-02)
  • Interpretation: RSI around the 66 region indicates moderate near-term momentum approaching overbought territory, but not extreme.
• MACD (12,26,9)
  • Latest MACD: -1.4 (2025-10-02)
  • Latest Signal: -3.0
  • Interpretation: MACD remnants are negative with a negative gap to the signal, indicating near-term momentum softness or potential consolidation before a bullish re-acceleration.

Key Support/Resistance and Moving Averages

• Current price: 271.91
• Near-term technicals: Price sits just below the 50-day MA and above a nearby modest support below 270–272 depending on intraday moves.
• The chart now has three explicit horizontal price targets drawn:
  • Low Target: 306.00 (green line)
  • Median Target: 342.00 (blue line)
  • High Target: 375.00 (red line) These lines act as near-term to intermediate resistance levels as price attempts to move higher.

Key Risks & Opportunities

• Risks
  • Valuation: With a trailing P/E around 41x and forward P/E around 40x, the stock trades at a premium versus many peers. The upside is contingent on consistent earnings momentum and stronger growth.
  • Macro headwinds and software demand cycles could reduce multiple expansion potential.
  • EPS revisions show some downgrades in the near term (0q, 0y), though more recent revision activity (+1q, +1y) has been constructive.
  • MACD is negative, and the stock is trading slightly below the 50-day MA, signaling potential near-term consolidation.
• Opportunities
  • Strong profitability metrics: margins and cash generation remain robust; ROE ~16% and operating margin ~28%.
  • Solid balance sheet with meaningful cash and modest leverage supports dividend sustainability and potential strategic investments.
  • Analyst consensus implies meaningful upside (median target 342, high 375), supported by continued EPS momentum and potential software/enterprise demand catalysts.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Hold
• Rationale: The stock offers a quality business with strong profitability and cash generation but trades at a rich multiple. Near-term technicals suggest caution, while fundamentals and the analyst target path imply meaningful upside over the next 12–24 months if earnings revisions remain positive and share sentiment improves. A held position is reasonable with a focus on catalysts (operational execution, cloud transition, and macro resilience) that could unlock multiples.
• Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 15–35% upside from current levels, depending on which price target path (Low 306, Median 342, High 375) is realized and on market conditions.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

• Short-Term (3 months): Target 306.00
  • Justification: The price has currently drifted under the 50-day MA with mixed near-term momentum indicators. A conservative near-term target aligns with the Low target as a floor for a possible rebound, supported by ongoing profitability and cash generation, while the three trendlines provide a roadmap for quick testing of resistance levels around 306.
  • Key drivers: Stabilization in earnings revisions (some downgrades earlier, but recent +1q/+1y revisions), potential positive surprises in quarterly results, and the possibility of a relief rally if macro sentiment improves.
• Mid-Term (12 months): Target 342.00
  • Justification: The median target reflects a balanced base case from analysts, incorporating SAP’s durable margins, cash generation, and ongoing cloud/ERP transition momentum. Upside could be driven by continued EPS momentum and stability in earnings revisions.
  • Key drivers: Consistent earnings delivery (beat/align with consensus), favorable ERP/Cloud demand cycle, continued share buybacks or capital allocation efficiency, and a relatively stable macro environment that supports multiple expansion at these levels.
• Long-Term (3+ years): Target 375.00
  • Justification: The high target represents a bull case premised on sustained growth in SAP’s software ecosystem, cloud adoption, and an improving productivity narrative across its enterprise software platform. Long-run upside would require continued margin discipline and growth in new ARR (annual recurring revenue) from cloud offerings.
  • Key drivers: Cloud transition success leading to higher lifetime value of customers, expansion of high-margin product lines, favorable capital allocation (return of capital and strategic M&A), and potential multiples expansion as SAP demonstrates durable growth and cash flow stability.

Analyst Coverage and Catalysts

• Analyst coverage: 12 analysts
• Catalysts to watch:
  • Continued execution of SAP’s cloud revenue growth and transition strategy
  • Favorable ERP market dynamics and enterprise IT spending
  • Margin expansion through efficiency gains and cost control
  • Cash flow generation and capital allocation decisions (dividends, buybacks, or strategic acquisitions)
  • Macro conditions impacting IT spend and risk appetite

Technical Overview (From the Last 60 Days)

• 50-day MA around 273.5 vs. price 271.9 (slightly below MA) indicates near-term consolidation pressure.
• RSI currently around 65.9, indicating momentum but not extreme overbought conditions.
• MACD is negative (-1.4 vs. -3.0 of the signal), signaling some near-term bearish momentum, though not a sole determinant of longer-term direction.

Appendix: Drawn Trendlines

• Low Target (306.00) drawn in green
• Median Target (342.00) drawn in blue
• High Target (375.00) drawn in red
• All lines extend from 2025-10-03 to 2025-11-02 (30 days into the future) and are tied to SAP’s price chart for visual reference.

Key Tables (All data as cited)

Valuation & Key Metrics

• Current price: 271.91
• Market cap: 316,667,559,936
• Enterprise value: 315,635,400,704
• Trailing P/E: 41.323708
• Forward P/E: 40.282963
• PEG: N/A
• Price to book: 7.723839
• ROE: 0.15841 (15.84%)
• ROA: 0.087299995 (8.73%)
• Profit margin: 0.18226999 (18.23%)
• Gross margin: 0.73797995 (73.80%)
• Operating margin: 0.28459 (28.46%)
• Debt / Equity: 21.126
• Total cash: 10,177,999,872
• Total debt: 8,746,000,384
• Dividend yield: 0.94%
• Five-year avg dividend yield: 1.49%
• Beta: 0.901

Analyst Targets

• Current price: 271.91
• Target Low: 306.0
• Target Median: 342.0
• Target High: 375.0
• Target Mean: 342.0
• Analysts: 12

Recent Earnings Summary (selected)

• Quarter end 2025-06-30
  • Net income: 1,697,000,000
  • Diluted EPS: 1.44
  • Basic EPS: 1.45
  • EBITDA: 3,089,000,000
  • EBIT: 2,770,000,000
  • Total Revenue: 9,027,000,000
  • Gross Profit: 6,620,000,000
  • SG&A: 2,517,000,000
  • R&D: 1,618,000,000
• Other quarters show resilient earnings with a gradual trend toward higher EPS across the full-year view.

EPS Trend (selected)

• 0q: current 1.71318; 7d ago 1.71781; 30d ago 1.72141; 60d ago 1.72141; 90d ago 1.81081
• +1q: 1.90943; 1q ago 1.89712; 30d ago 1.88754; 60d ago 1.88754; 90d ago 1.97198
• 0y: 7.03927; 7d ago 7.03165; 30d ago 7.03458; 60d ago 7.03458; 90d ago 7.10271
• +1y: 8.46737; 7d ago 8.37676; 30d ago 8.37478; 60d ago 8.37478; 90d ago 8.2924

EPS Revisions (selected)

• 0q: UpLast7d 0; UpLast30d 0; DownLast30d 1; DownLast7d 1
• +1q: UpLast7d 1; UpLast30d 1; DownLast30d 0; DownLast7d 0
• 0y: UpLast7d 0; UpLast30d 0; DownLast30d 1; DownLast7d 1
• +1y: UpLast7d 1; UpLast30d 1; DownLast30d 0; DownLast7d 0

Technical Indicators (selected)

• 50-day MA: latest ~273.5
• RSI (14): latest 65.9
• MACD (12,26,9): latest MACD -1.4, Signal -3.0

Investment Verdict

• SAP presents a high-quality business with strong profitability and cash generation. The near-term price action shows caution, but the consensus price targets imply meaningful upside over the next 12–24 months if earnings momentum and revisions remain constructive. The drawn horizontal targets provide clear upside milestones aligned with the analyst view.

If you’d like, I can add scenarios (e.g., a revenue growth surprise, a cloud transition acceleration, or a compliance/regulatory headwind) and quantify their impact on the price targets. I can also tailor the timeframe and targets to a specific risk tolerance.