RTX Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for RTX Corporation (RTX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for RTX Corporation (RTX).

RTX Corporation (RTX) — Comprehensive Price Target & Analysis Date reference: 2025-10-07. Price used: 168.8

Drawing outcome

  • Low Target line drawn at 134.0 (green) extending 30 days beyond today to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target line drawn at 172.0 (orange) extending 30 days beyond today to 2025-11-06
  • High Target line drawn at 181.0 (red) extending 30 days beyond today to 2025-11-06

Executive Summary

  • RTX sits around 168.8, with a mixed near-term tone but clear long-term exposure to defense and aerospace demand. The consensus analyst targets imply modest upside, with a median target of 172 and a high target of 181, while a low target of 134 presents a meaningful downside scenario if risks materialize.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of about 27.6, price-to-book ~3.62, and a dividend yield of ~1.63%. Leverage is notable (debt-to-equity ~68%), which deserves close attention given rising interest-rate and defense-budget dynamics.
  • Near-term technicals show bullish momentum (price above 50-day MA; MACD bullish; RSI recently elevated near overbought). However, earnings sentiment shows a tilt toward modest near-term downgrades in EPS revisions, while longer-horizon growth expectations remain more favorable.

Fundamental Analysis Key metrics (latest)

  • Current price: 168.8
  • Market cap: 226.0B
  • Enterprise value: 263.6B
  • Trailing P/E: 37.10
  • Forward P/E: 27.63
  • Price to book: 3.62
  • Return on equity (ROE): 10.3%
  • Return on assets (ROA): 3.7%
  • Profit margin: 7.35%
  • Gross margin: 20.05%
  • Operating margin: 11.55%
  • Debt to equity: 67.9%
  • Total cash: 4.78B
  • Total debt: 43.60B
  • Dividend yield: 1.63%
  • 5-year avg dividend yield: 2.32%
  • Beta: 0.65

Commentary

  • Valuation is skewed higher on trailing earnings, but forward multiple is more reasonable at ~27.6x, reflecting expected earnings progression. The balance sheet shows meaningful debt relative to cash, which is typical in defense-industrial incumbents but still warrants monitoring of leverage, coverage, and cash flow generation.
  • The dividend yield trails the five-year average, suggesting a potential for improved returns via buybacks or increased dividend if cash flow supports it.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

  • 2025-06-30: Total revenue 21.581B; Net income from continuing operations 1.657B; Diluted EPS 1.22; Basic EPS 1.24
  • Reconciled figures show Normalized EBITDA of ~3.596B and Operating Income ~2.146B for the period
  • Other metrics (Depreciation + amortization, cost of revenue, etc.) align with a stable-to-modestly improving earnings backdrop in the latest quarter.

Earnings Summary Table

  • Quarter-end: 2025-06-30
    • Total Revenue: 21.581B
    • Net Income (continuing ops): 1.657B
    • Diluted EPS: 1.22
    • Basic EPS: 1.24
  • Quarter-end: 2025-03-31
    • Total Revenue: 20.306B
    • Net Income (continuing ops): 1.535B
    • Diluted EPS: 1.14
    • Basic EPS: 1.15
  • (Additional historicals embedded in data set show a pattern of rising year-over-year base EPS for the next-year horizon.)

EPS Trend

  • 0q (latest): current 1.4036; 7d ago 1.4073; 30d ago 1.4142; 60d ago 1.4153; 90d ago 1.4522
  • +1q: current 1.5047; 7d ago 1.5085; 30d ago 1.5148; 60d ago 1.5170; 90d ago 1.5797
  • 0y (trailing year): current 5.9491; 7d ago 5.9555; 30d ago 5.9633; 60d ago 5.9628; 90d ago 5.9505
  • +1y (forward year): current 6.6373; 7d ago 6.6373; 30d ago 6.6554; 60d ago 6.6540; 90d ago 6.6870

EPS Revisions (recent sentiment)

  • 0q (current quarter)
    • Up last 7 days: 3; Up last 30 days: 4
    • Down last 30 days: 10; Down last 7 days: 10
  • +1q (next quarter)
    • Up last 7 days: 4; Up last 30 days: 7
    • Down last 30 days: 8; Down last 7 days: 10
  • 0y (current year)
    • Up last 7 days: 1; Up last 30 days: 7
    • Down last 30 days: 11; Down last 7 days: 3
  • +1y (next year)
    • Up last 7 days: 0; Up last 30 days: 0
    • Down last 30 days: 1; Down last 7 days: 1

Commentary

  • The EPS revisions data show more downgrades than upgrades across the board, particularly in the 0q and 0y horizons. This indicates a cautious near-term sentiment on earnings despite the positive longer-horizon EPS trajectory captured in the +1y line (6.64 current). The near-term EPS trend is modestly downshifting, while the longer-term outlook remains more constructive, which aligns with a mid-to-longer-term thesis rather than near-term expansion.

Technical Analysis Current price action and indicators

  • Price (as of 2025-10-06 close): 168.8
  • 50-day moving average (MA): ~158.2 (last data point 2025-10-06)
    • Price sits roughly 10.6 points above the 50-day MA, signaling bullish momentum and a positive short- to medium-term trend.
  • RSI (14-day): 85.9 (on 2025-10-06) — near overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum but potential for a pullback/ consolidation.
  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD ~3.0 vs Signal ~2.2 (recent data) — bullish crossover and positive momentum, supporting continued upside but watch for a possible near-term pullback if RSI remains overbought.

Commentary

  • The current price is above both the 50-day MA and recent moving-average-derived momentum signals, with MACD bullish. RSI in the high 80s suggests overbought risk and potential for a temporary pullback or consolidation, especially if macro or company-specific catalysts don’t sustain the pace.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets Analyst targets and coverage

  • Target Low: 134
  • Target Median: 172
  • Target High: 181
  • Current price: 168.8
  • Target Mean: 166.56
  • Number of analysts: 18

Interpretation

  • The median price target (172) suggests modest upside from the current price (~2%).
  • The mean target (166.56) is slightly below the current price, indicating some analysts see limited upside or modest downside risk relative to current levels.
  • The High target (181) implies ~7% upside, while the Low target (134) implies meaningful downside risk (~21% below current).

Price Target Analysis Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: 172 (median)
  • Justification: The stock is currently trading near the median analyst target; near-term momentum is supported by bullish MACD and price trading above the 50-day MA, but RSI indicates overbought risk. The 3-month target aligns with a cautious but constructive view from the consensus and supports a modest upside scenario if fundamentals hold and sentiment stabilizes.
  • Key drivers: Sustained revenue/margin stability, continued defense-budget exposure, and any near-term EPS resilience.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 181 (high)
  • Justification: The 12-month high target implies potential upside beyond the current price if RTX can translate the longer-horizon EPS trajectory into revenue/margin expansion and a modest multiple expansion. The 1-year forward EPS readings (per the data) show a path to stronger earnings, with the +1y EPS around 6.64, which could support higher equity valuation if cash flow and margins improve.
  • Key drivers: Growth in defense programs, margin stability, cost discipline, and potential share repurchases/refinancing where cash flow allows.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target (low-case): 134
  • Justification: The low target provides a downside scenario in a stress macro/defense-budget environment or if leverage pressures erode cash flow and investor sentiment shifts. This horizon also accommodates multiple-compression risks if demand or program execution disappoints or if competition and macro volatility persist.
  • Key drivers: Debt dynamics (debt-to-equity ~68%), cash generation, program mix and settlement cycles, and macro defense spending volatility.

Technical Viewpoint Summary

  • Price action remains positive with strong momentum indicators, but overbought RSI suggests potential near-term volatility or a pause.
  • Key levels drawn: 134 (green, support potential), 172 (orange, baseline target), 181 (red, resistance/upper target). These levels provide a framework for risk management and scenario planning.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Leverage: Elevated debt levels raise interest-rate risk and coverage concerns.
    • Near-term earnings sentiment: EPS revisions show more downgrades in the current quarter and year, signaling potential earnings volatility in the near term.
    • RSI overbought: Short-term pullback risk if momentum fades.
  • Opportunities
    • Defensive/strategic exposure: RTX benefits from defense budgets and long cycle projects, supporting a longer-term growth path.
    • Positive longer-horizon EPS trajectory: +1y EPS data hints at stronger future earnings potential, providing a catalyst for multiple expansion if realized.
    • Share repurchase capacity and cash-flow resilience could support upside through multiple expansion and dividend policy.

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to cautious Buy (anchored to horizon)
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • Modest upside potential in the near term (median target ~172 or a low-to-mid single-digit gain) with a favorable macro backdrop for defense spending.
    • Longer-term earnings growth appears more favorable, backed by +1y EPS trend, albeit with near-term revisions signaling some caution.
    • Technicals show bullish momentum but with overbought RSI, suggesting a potential pause or short-term pullback before any sustained upside.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 2%–7% upside under base to bullish scenarios, with downside risk around low-20% if macro/operational headwinds intensify (as implied by the 134 target). The exact outcome will hinge on defense budget momentum, program execution, and leverage/cash-flow management.

Price Target Summary Table

  • Target Level | Price | 1-Year Outlook (approx) | Key Justification
  • Low Target | 134 | Negative risk scenario | Downside protection line; leverage and revisions risk
  • Median Target | 172 | Modest upside | Benchmark target; aligns with consensus
  • High Target | 181 | Higher upside potential | 12-month upside scenario if EPS momentum and multiple expansion occur

Appendix: Data References (earnings, EPS, revisions, and technical)

  • Earnings Summary (latest quarter): Revenue 21.581B; Net Income (continuing ops) 1.657B; Diluted EPS 1.22; Basic EPS 1.24
  • EPS Trend (latest to forward): 0q current 1.4036; +1q 1.5047; 0y 5.9491; +1y 6.6373
  • EPS Revisions (recent sentiment): Net downgrades dominate across 0q and 0y; +1y shows minimal changes; overall sentiment skewed negative in near-term horizons
  • Technicals: Price 168.8; 50-day MA ~158.2; RSI 85.9; MACD 3.0 vs Signal 2.2
  • Analyst Targets: Low 134; Median 172; High 181; Mean 166.56; Coverage 18 analysts

If you’d like, I can convert the above into a shareable slide deck or export the tables to CSV/Excel for your model.

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