RTX Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for RTX Corporation (RTX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for RTX Corporation (RTX).

Below is a comprehensive RTX (RTX) stock analysis with the requested price-target drawing and a structured, investor-focused writeup.

Note on price-target lines drawn

  • We plotted three horizontal lines on RTX’s price chart at the following levels:
    • Low Target: 134.00 (blue)
    • Median Target: 175.00 (orange)
    • High Target: 200.00 (green)
  • Each line extends from today (2025-10-10) to 30 days into the future (2025-11-09) to align with your instruction.
  • Ticker: RTX

Summary table of key prices (for quick reference)

  • Current Price: 162.18
  • Low Target: 134.00
  • Median Target: 175.00
  • High Target: 200.00

Now, the comprehensive analysis.

Executive Summary

  • RTX sits mid-range relative to the defense sector, trading at a forward P/E around 26.5x with a solid balance sheet and modest dividend yield.
  • The consensus analyst view places a fair value near the mid- to high-170s, with a high target of 200 and a low of 134. The market is pricing RTX with a modest upside to 12–18 months, contingent on defense spending, backlog execution, and normalization of margins.
  • Key near-term catalysts include ongoing defense programs and backlog execution; near-term downside risks include budgetary pressures, competing programs, and EPS revisions turning modestly negative in some quarters.
  • Technicals suggest the stock is navigating above its 50-day moving average with bullish MACD alignment and a mid- to high-teens RSI in prior periods, indicating room for near-term upside if catalysts align.

Fundamental Analysis

Key valuation and financial health indicators

  • Table: Key Valuation Metrics (as of today)

    • Current Price: 162.18
    • Market Cap: 217.08 B
    • Enterprise Value: 266.30 B
    • Trailing P/E: 35.64
    • Forward P/E: 26.54
    • Price to Book (P/B): 3.48
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 10.32%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 3.70%
    • Profit Margin: 7.35%
    • Gross Margin: 20.05%
    • Operating Margin: 11.55%
    • Debt to Equity: 67.86
    • Total Cash: 4.78 B
    • Total Debt: 43.60 B
    • Dividend Yield: 1.61%
    • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield: 2.32%
    • Beta: 0.65

  • Commentary:

    • RTX’s forward multiple (26.5x) sits above the trailing multiple, reflecting expected growth and defense demand resilience.
    • The balance sheet shows a reasonable cash position relative to debt, though net leverage remains elevated given the large gross debt base. Degreed margins (gross ~20%, operating ~11.5%) indicate a relatively stable, albeit mature, profitability profile.
    • The dividend yield trails the five-year average, suggesting a potential for capital allocation improvements or a commitment to returning cash with share repurchases alongside a modest dividend.

Analyst coverage and price targets

  • Analysts: 18

  • Target Low / Median / High: 134.00 / 175.00 / 200.00

  • Target Mean: 174.06

  • Current Price: 162.18

  • Read-through:

    • The distribution of targets centers around the mid-170s with a meaningful upside to 200 and downside risk to the mid-130s. The mean (~174) implies ~7% upside from current levels if price converges to mean over time, all else equal.
    • The relatively wide target range reflects sensitivity to defense budget dynamics, program wins/losses, and company-specific execution.

Earnings Analysis

Recent earnings summary (selected quarters)

  • 2025-06-30: Total Revenue 21.581 B; Net Income (Continuing Ops) 1.657 B; Diluted EPS 1.22; Normalized EBITDA 3.596 B; EBITDA 3.596 B; Operating Income 2.52 B
  • 2025-03-31: Total Revenue 20.306 B; Net Income (Continuing Ops) 1.535 B; Diluted EPS 1.14; Normalized EBITDA 3.516 B; EBITDA 3.516 B; Operating Income 2.46 B
  • 2024-12-31: Total Revenue 21.623 B; Net Income (Continuing Ops) 1.482 B; Diluted EPS 1.10; Normalized EBITDA 3.662 B; EBITDA 3.662 B; Operating Income 2.52 B
  • 2024-09-30: Total Revenue 20.089 B; Net Income (Continuing Ops) 1.472 B; Diluted EPS 1.09; Normalized EBITDA 3.548 B; EBITDA 3.548 B; Operating Income 2.45 B
  • 2024-06-30: Total Revenue 19.721 B; Net Income (Continuing Ops) 1.11 B; Diluted EPS 0.08; Normalized EBITDA 1 3.205 B; EBITDA 3.205 B; Operating Income 2.10 B
  • 2024-03-31: Net Income 0.111 B; Diluted EPS 0.08

Notes:

  • The most recent quarters show a meaningful step-up in revenue vs the prior year, with continued expansion in Net Income from continuing operations, and a notable jump in Diluted EPS in 2025-06-30 relative to earlier periods. The spike in EPS in 2024-06-30 and 2024-03-31 appears to be affected by one-off or normalization effects (as suggested by the lower 0.08 EPS in earlier 2024 periods and higher later quarters). The provided “Normalized EBITDA” column helps see underlying cash earnings power.

EPS Trend

  • Current quarterly EPS (0q): 1.4055

  • +1q: 1.5071

  • 0y (trailing 12m EPS): 5.9533

  • +1y (projected/forward 12m): 6.6367

  • Interpretation:

    • The table indicates a strong forward trajectory in quarterly/EPS contribution, with a meaningful year-over-year uplift when looking at trailing earnings. However, the presence of normalization effects (e.g., 2024 quarters showing a low base) means that one-off items can drive quarterly EPS volatility. The longer-term trend (0y to +1y) shows growth, supported by improving operating leverage and revenue progression.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q (recent period): UpLast7days 3, UpLast30days 4, DownLast30days 10, DownLast7Days 10

  • +1q: UpLast7days 4, UpLast30days 7, DownLast30days 8, DownLast7Days 10

  • 0y: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 7, DownLast30days 11, DownLast7Days 3

  • +1y: UpLast7days 0, UpLast30days 0, DownLast30days 1, DownLast7Days 1

  • Interpretation:

    • The revisions data indicates a tilt toward downgrades in recent periods, with more downgrades than upgrades across the 0q and 0y horizons, and only minimal upgrades in the +1y horizon. This points to some near-term sentiment softness among analysts, even as the company’s visible revenue/operating performance has improved in recent quarters.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

  • 50-Day Moving Average (latest): 158.8

  • Price (latest): 162.2

  • RSI (14): 59.2 (as of 2025-10-09)

  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD 2.7; Signal 2.6 (bullish crossover)

  • Interpretation:

    • Price is trading above the 50-day moving average, suggesting a short- to intermediate-term positive bias.
    • RSI at 59.2 indicates room to run before overbought territory.
    • MACD is modestly bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line, indicating ongoing positive momentum.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current Price: 162.18
  • Analysts Covering: 18
  • Target Low / Median / High: 134.00 / 175.00 / 200.00
  • Target Mean: 174.06
  • Potential catalysts include defense budget dynamics, funding for advanced programs, backlog execution, and potential margin stabilization.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months): Target around 175 (median target)

    • Rationale: Near-term price target aligns with the median analyst target and the current earnings trajectory as reflected by recent quarterly results and EPS trends. Momentum from positive MACD and RSI support a shallow upside bias. Potential drivers include continued revenue expansion, backlog execution, and modest multiple expansion on a favorable forward P/E (26.5x).
    • Potential range: 170–178, with a base around 175.
    • Risks: EPS revisions turning negative in near term, defense budget uncertainty, or a broader market drawdown.

  • Mid-Term (12 months): Target around 190

    • Rationale: If RTX sustains revenue growth and maintains profitability, a normalized gross margin in the low-to-mid teens alongside stable operating margins could justify multiple expansion toward the mid- to high-20s P/E given a forward earnings trajectory. 12-month upside could be supported by further backlog realization and potential share repurchases or dividend policy shifts.
    • Potential drivers: defense program wins, backlog conversion, margin stabilization, share repurchase activity.
    • Risks: Budgetary shifts, program delays, supply chain or cost pressures.

  • Long-Term (3+ years): Target around 200 (upper-end consensus)

    • Rationale: The high target around 200 reflects the upper end of the current analyst distribution and a potential normalization of margins and growth in defense-related revenues. The 3+ year view would be supported by durable demand in core defense segments, potential margin expansion, and a growing dividend/distribution policy.
    • Potential drivers: sustained defense spending, program wins, efficiency improvements, capital returns.
    • Risks: Structural cyclicality in defense budgets, competition, or broader market downturns.

  • Extrema bounds:

    • Low Target: 134
    • Median Target: 175
    • High Target: 200 These align with the data you provided and serve as the bounds for the price-target discussion.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks

    • Defense budget volatility and potential program cancellations or delays.
    • EPS revisions turning negative or downgrades in near-term estimates.
    • Macroeconomic pressure on government spending and potential impact on orders.
    • Execution risk on large backlog projects and potential cost overruns.

  • Key Opportunities

    • Strengthening backlog and program wins in air and missile defense, with favorable long-term secular demand.
    • Margin normalization and potential efficiency gains from scale and manufacturing optimization.
    • Active capital allocation (e.g., share repurchase and dividend policy) that could support per-share value.

Investment Recommendation

  • Overall stance: Hold
    • Rationale: RTX trades near fair value with a reasonable bias to modest upside toward the median price target. The forward earnings picture, improving top-line trajectory, and positive technicals (above 50-day MA, bullish MACD, RSI not overbought) support a constructive view, but revisions, execution risk, and defense budget sensitivity temper a stronger buy case.
    • Time horizon: 12–24 months
    • Expected return potential:
      • If the stock moves to the Median Target (175): roughly +7–9% upside.
      • If the stock reaches the High Target (200): roughly +20–24% upside.
    • Note: The Low Target (134) represents a meaningful downside risk of roughly -17% if the scenario deteriorates.

Supporting data references (earnings, trends, revisions)

  • Earnings summary shows continued profitability with a notable EPS ramp in the latest quarter (Diluted EPS of 1.22 in 2025-06-30 vs 1.14 prior quarter; earlier quarters had lower bases). The “Normalized EBITDA” and operating earnings improved sequentially.
  • EPS trend data indicate current quarter EPS around 1.41 with positive year-over-year trajectory in 0y and +1y lines, signaling improving earnings momentum when normalized for one-off effects.
  • EPS revisions data show a tilt toward downgrades in the near term (0q and 0y horizons) with limited upgrades in the +1y horizon, suggesting some near-term sentiment risk despite improving quarterly results.

Appendix: Data slices used

  • Price targets and market data pulled from:
    • Current Price: 162.18
    • Analyst Targets: Low 134.0, Median 175.0, High 200.0, Mean 174.05556
    • Market Cap, EV, P/E ratios, margins, debt, cash, dividend, beta
  • Earnings data includes quarterly numbers (2025-06-30 through 2024-03-31) and EPS figures:
    • Diluted EPS: 1.22 (2025-06-30), 1.14 (2025-03-31), 1.10 (2024-12-31), 1.09 (2024-09-30), 0.08 (2024-06-30 and 2024-03-31)
    • Net Income from continuing operations: 1.657B (2025-06-30), 1.535B (2025-03-31), 1.482B (2024-12-31), 1.472B (2024-09-30), 1.11B (2024-06-30)
    • Total Revenue: 21.581B (2025-06-30), 20.306B (2025-03-31), 21.623B (2024-12-31), 20.089B (2024-09-30), 19.721B (2024-06-30)

If you’d like, I can expand any section with deeper, line-item revenue analysis, model forward earnings scenarios under different defense-budget assumptions, or adjust price-target scaffolding to incorporate alternative growth rates.

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