Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) Technical Analysis

Price Action Analysis

Overview

• The near-term price action for Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) shows a sharp pullback from late December into late January, with the latest price around the low-to-mid $17s. The intraday action has featured a substantial drop from the $22–$24 area to the sub-$18 zone.
• The price has recently traded below the 50-day moving average, suggesting near-term downside pressure, while remaining above the 200-day moving average, indicating the longer-term trend remains constructive but is being tested.
• Key levels identified from the attached chart context:
  • Resistance around roughly $18.2–$18.3 (recent peak zones).
  • Support around $17.5–$17.0 (notable intraday lows, recent tests).
  • Strong longer-term support near the 200-day moving average around $16.8.

Candlestick/Pattern observations

• Recent candles reflect sustained selling pressure with larger red bodies on down days, indicating supply dominance.
• There is no clear, persistent bullish reversal pattern yet; the formations are more consistent with a test and potential stabilization near support levels rather than an established reversal pattern.
• No conclusive breakout above near-term resistance yet; the price remains within a down-biased context until a sustained close above the $18.2 area is achieved with accompanying volume.

Volume context

• Volume picks up on the downside, consistent with distribution and capitulative selling pressure during the recent slide.
• Periods of lighter volume accompany consolidation attempts, suggesting a lack of persistent buying interest at higher levels for now.
• The implied consequence is that any meaningful upside would likely require a notable shift in volume dynamics (increased buying interest) to confirm a shift in sentiment.

Trend context from the attached chart

• Short-term trend: bearish, given the break below the 50-day moving average and continuation of downside pressure into late January.
• Medium-to-long-term trend: still intact higher-level trend, as the price remains above the 200-day moving average, suggesting a potential longer-term reversion could occur if demand returns.

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Technical Indicators

Summary table of key readings and implications

Indicator	Current (approx)	Signal / Reading	Implication
50-day Moving Average	≈ $19.90	Price is below the 50-day MA	Near-term bearish pressure; the MA acts as resistance on rallies.
200-day Moving Average	≈ $16.80	Price is above the 200-day MA	Long-term uptrend remains in play; the MA provides longer-term support if tested.
RSI (14)	≈ 15.5	Oversold territory	Potential for a near-term bounce if selling pressure abates; risk of further downside remains until a reversal signals emerge.
MACD (12,26,9)	MACD ≈ 0.0; Signal ≈ 0.5	Bearish momentum fading; near a potential cross	Watch for a bullish MACD cross (MACD > Signal) as a potential early reversal signal if price stabilizes near support.

Notes:

• The RSI is deeply oversold, which often aligns with a short-term bounce opportunity, but does not guarantee a reversal without other confirming signals.
• MACD staying near zero with a potential to cross higher would support a shift in momentum if accompanied by price stabilization and a break back above key moving averages.

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Volume & Momentum Analysis

• Momentum indicators suggest a cautious stance: the RSI is deeply oversold, indicating exhausted selling in the short term, but the price action has not yet confirmed a durable bottom.
• MACD is at or near neutral, with the potential for a bullish cross if near-term buyers emerge and price stabilization occurs.
• Volume patterns corroborate the price action: selling days carried above-average volume, while attempts to stabilize or bounce have shown more modest volume. This paints a picture of a potential capitulation phase in the short run, requiring a volume-backed rally to confirm a meaningful turn.

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Key Buy/Sell Levels

Important levels are anchored by the lines drawn on the chart, which reflect resistance and support zones:

• Horizontal resistance around $18.20 (near-term cap)
• Horizontal support around $17.50
• Longer-term support around $16.80 (near the 200-day MA)

Current price: $17.93

Buy zone propositions (with touch status and distances)

• Zone A: 17.80 – 18.20 (near-term upside resistance area)

  • Touch status: Currently touched (price sits around $17.93, inside the zone)
  • Implication if price holds: A stabilization and potential bounce could occur if buyers step in near this zone, especially with any uptick in volume.
  • Distance notes if not touched: N/A (touched)

• Zone B: 16.50 – 17.50 (near-to-middle support region)

  • Touch status: Touched previously (intraday lows around $17.05; zone has been tested)
  • Implication if price revisits: A rebound could be more convincing if price comes down to or above this zone with improving volume.
  • Distance notes if not touched: N/A (touched)

• Zone C: 15.50 – 16.50 (lower-support region)

  • Touch status: Not yet touched in the current move
  • Distance from current price:
    • Top of zone (16.50) is about $1.43 below current price ≈ 7.9% lower
    • Bottom of zone (15.50) is about $2.43 below current price ≈ 13.6% lower

Rationale for levels

• The current near-term price sits around an aid-resistance cluster near the 50-day MA and the $18 area. A move above this resistance with volume would be a bullish signal and could target the $21–$22 prior highs as a next resistance range.
• The 200-day MA around $16.80 acts as a meaningful longer-term support, where price testing could attract buyers if the selling pressure eases.
• Volume spikes around the test and potential retest zones are key to validating any breakout or rebound.

Trendline context (drawn on chart)

• Resistance line around $18.20
• Support line around $17.50
• Longer-term support line around $16.80

These horizontal trendlines are placed to reflect the current price context and are extended forward to provide a visual guide for near-term decision-making. They align with the price action, moving averages, and notable volume clusters observed in the attached charts.

Notes on buy levels

• If price rallies above $18.20 with confirming volume and a bullish MACD cross, the first major upside target would be the $21–$22 zone (previous highs).
• If price moves back toward the $17.50 area and finds demand (volume pickup with a bullish candlestick formation), a cautious long entry could be considered with tight risk management just below $17.50.
• If price breaks below $16.80 with sustained volume, a deeper retest toward the $15.50–$16.00 zone could occur, potentially increasing downside risk.

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Technical Outlook & Summary

• Price Action Context

  • Near-term downtrend remains intact as price trades below the 50-day MA, with a current floor near the 200-day MA around $16.80.
  • A potential short-term bottom may be forming near the $17–$18 area, but confirmation requires a sustained move above the $18.20 resistance with improving volume and a bullish MACD cross.

• Volume Context

  • Selling days have shown elevated volume, signaling distribution pressure. Any meaningful reversal will likely require a rise in buying interest and above-average volume on up days.

• Momentum & Signals

  • RSI signals oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a bounce, but this alone is not a buy signal without accompanying price action confirmation.
  • MACD is near neutral; watch for a cross above the signal line to accompany a price break above resistance.

• Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate resistance: around $18.20
  • Near-term support: $17.50
  • Stronger support / long-term anchor: $16.80 (200-day MA)
  • Potential upside targets if bullish momentum confirms: $21–$22 region

• Final assessment

  • The stock is in a risk-managed, near-term bear phase, with oversold conditions suggesting a potential rebound could occur if demand returns. The longer-term trend remains intact, but a sustained bullish move will require a shift in momentum and higher-volume participation.

If you’d like, I can adjust the buy-zone parameters (e.g., narrower zones around key moving averages, or include additional swing-high/swing-low references) or add a short list of potential exit levels based on your risk tolerance.