Philip Morris International Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM).

Below is a comprehensive PM (Philip Morris International Inc.) analysis using the data you provided. I’ve also plotted three price-target lines (Low/Median/High) on the chart using an earnings-based framework, as explained in the Price Target section. The horizontal trendlines have been drawn with the following targets:

  • Low Target: 150.62
  • Median Target: 182.30
  • High Target: 217.57

These levels were plotted starting at today’s date and extended 30 days forward to orient the edge of the chart.

Price-target lines drawn on PM chart

  • Low Target (blue): 150.62
    • p1 (2025-10-10T00:00:00-04:00) to p2 (2025-11-09T00:00:00-04:00)
  • Median Target (green): 182.30
    • p1 (2025-10-10T00:00:00-04:00) to p2 (2025-11-09T00:00:00-04:00)
  • High Target (red): 217.57
    • p1 (2025-10-10T00:00:00-04:00) to p2 (2025-11-09T00:00:00-04:00)

Note: The actual price targets used here are illustrative forward-earnings-based levels derived from your EPS trend and forward P/E data (see Price Target Analysis). They are not official analyst targets.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: PM exhibits attractive cash generation (solid margins, healthy gross and operating margins) and a meaningful dividend yield with a conservative beta, indicating lower-than-average downside risk versus the broad market. The balance between profitability and relatively modest debt levels supports a constructive long-term view, though near-term price action is constrained by the stock’s valuation and momentum indicators.
  • Near-term view: The stock trades below its 50-day moving average and has recently shown bearish momentum signals (MACD negative, RSI mid- to low-40s). This suggests a potential pullback risk or a consolidation phase in the near term.
  • Medium-term view: With forward-looking earnings expected to uplift from the last year’s troughs, there is a plausible path to mid-to-high-180s in 12 months if earnings momentum persists and multiple expansion occurs.
  • Long-term view: If PM sustains margin stability, executes on share repurchases (if applicable), and benefits from stable cash returns and a resilient consumer backdrop for tobacco, a path toward the low-to-mid 200s over 2–3+ years remains a reasonable tail case, assuming favorable macro and regulatory conditions.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Current price: 156.85
    • Market cap: 244.15B
    • Enterprise value: 290.998B
    • Forward P/E: 21.78
    • Trailing P/E: 23.24
    • Price to book: -20.40 (noting the negative pb often arises from consolidated accounting structures and/or asset/liability treatment; PM typically trades at a premium to book given brand value and earnings power)
    • Dividend yield: 3.79% (versus 5-year average 4.9%)
    • 5-year beta: 0.479 (low-beta stock, favorable for risk-averse investors)
  • Financial health snapshot
    • Total cash: 4.14B
    • Total debt: 51.49B
    • Net cash/debt impression: substantial net debt remains (debt largely funded operations; cash modest relative to debt)
    • Margins: gross 66.44%, operating 50.09%, profit 21.08%
  • Implications
    • PM’s margins are robust, but the leverage/debt level is meaningful. The cash balance is modest relative to debt, which underpins the importance of continued cash generation, cost control, and any potential capital allocation actions (e.g., dividends, buybacks).
    • The stock’s low beta and stable dividend profile make PM relatively attractive for income-oriented and defensive investors, albeit with potential sensitivity to regulatory changes and pricing pressure in the tobacco sector.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent earnings snapshots (Trailing/Geography/quarters)
    • 2025-06-30 (most recent quarter in your data): Revenue 10.14B; Gross Profit 6.861B; Operating Income 3.753B; EBITDA 4.191B; Net Income (continuing ops) 3.039B; Diluted EPS 1.95
    • 2025-03-31: Revenue 9.301B; Gross Profit 6.261B; Operating Income 3.543B; EBITDA 4.012B; Net Income 2.69B; Diluted EPS 1.72
    • 2024-12-31: Revenue 9.706B; Gross Profit 6.283B; Operating Income 3.543B; EBITDA 4.346B; Net Income (GAAP) -0.579B; Diluted EPS -0.38
  • EPS Trend (recent trajectory)
    • 0q: current 2.0966; 7d ago 2.0984; 30d ago 2.0980; 60d ago 2.1129; 90d ago 2.1297
    • +1q: current 1.8017; 7d/30d/60d/90d ago all near 1.80–1.81
    • 0y trailing EPS: 7.5145; +1y forward EPS: 8.3681
    • Interpretation: EPS treads higher on a yearly basis, with a recent quarterly slowdown versus prior year comparable periods. The forward EPS read is notably higher than trailing annual EPS, indicating expected earnings growth.
  • EPS Revisions (sentiment signals)
    • 0q: UpLast7Days=1, UpLast30Days=2, DownLast30Days=3, DownLast7Days=0
    • +1q: UpLast7Days=1, UpLast30Days=1, DownLast30Days=3, DownLast7Days=0
    • 0y: UpLast7Days=1, UpLast30Days=1, DownLast30Days=3, DownLast7Days=0
    • +1y: UpLast7Days=1, UpLast30Days=2, DownLast30Days=3, DownLast7Days=0
    • Net: Revisions show a modest tilt toward upward sentiment in some horizons (0–+1q,+1y), but a persistent baseline of more downward revisions than upward in some periods, implying cautious analyst sentiment.
  • Earnings quality indicators
    • Revenue growth: 2025-06-30 quarter shows revenue at 10.14B vs 9.30B in 2025-03-31, indicating sequential improvement.
    • Profitability: Operating margin ~50%, gross margin ~66%, strong profitability by segment; the company maintains high efficiency on cost of revenue and SG&A.
    • Sustainability: Moderately positive on normalized earnings with relatively high margins, but sensitivity to regulatory changes and pricing dynamics remains a risk due to the tobacco product mix.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action
    • Current price: 156.85
    • 50-day moving average: ~162.9 (last reported value 2025-10-09)
    • Price vs. 50-day MA: Price sits below the 50-day MA, indicating near-term weakness or ongoing consolidation.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14): ~38.0 (as of 2025-10-09) — near oversold territory but not extreme; suggests there could be limited upside near term unless buyers step in.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Recently negative (MACD ~ -2.4 vs. Signal ~ -2.0) indicating bearish momentum, with potential for a bearish continuation unless price action improves.
  • Support/resistance cues
    • Immediate short-term support: around 150–155 range (psych level and prior consolidations)
    • Near-term resistance: 160–165 region (the 50-dayMA around 163–164 acts as resistance; the prior swing highs around 165–170 could come into play)
  • Interpretation
    • The technical setup points to a cautious stance near current levels, with a potential for a pause or pullback until momentum reverses. A break back above the 50-day MA (around 163) could improve near-term technicals; a move back toward 170–175 would suggest renewed momentum.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst coverage data: Not provided in the dataset you shared (empty Analyst Price Targets JSON). Therefore, there are no explicit published Low/Median/High targets in this dataset to cite.
  • Given the absence of formal targets, I derived illustrative forward-earnings-based targets using the EPS trend data and forward P/E multiple:
    • Forward 12-month EPS (approx): 8.368 (0y to +1y window from EPS Trend)
    • Forward P/E (stipulated): 21.784723
    • Derived illustrative targets (not official consensus):
      • Low Target (18x P/E): 150.62
      • Median Target (base-case, ~22x P/E): 182.30
      • High Target (26x P/E): 217.57
  • These figures align with the current forward P/E framework and the forward EPS estimate, producing a logical spectrum for near-, mid-, and longer-term scenarios.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Methodology note: Targets below are illustrative, grounded in the forward EPS (8.368) and a range of reasonable P/E multiples (18x, 22x, 26x). They are not official analyst targets. The horizontal lines shown on the chart correspond to these levels.
  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target range: 150.6 – 182.3 (low using 18x; base-case using 22x)
    • Justification: Near-term price action remains choppy; RSI near 38 and MACD negative suggest limited upside in the very near term unless the stock can reclaim the 50-day MA (~163) and generate positive momentum. A move toward 162–168 would be a technical test of the near-term trend; a breach of 150–151 would imply renewed downside risk.
    • Key drivers: Momentum re-acceleration, stability in earnings trajectory, dividend support, and any regulatory or macro backdrop changes.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 182.3 (base-case) is a reasonable mid-point given earnings momentum and potential multiple expansion.
    • Justification: If PM sustains earnings growth (driven by cost control, product mix stability, and robust margins) and the market re-rates the stock closer to the forward P/E, a move into the 170s–180s range is plausible; the stock would need to clear resistance around 165–170 on a sustained basis to unlock more upside.
    • Key drivers: Sustained revenue growth, margin discipline, dividend policy, potential share buybacks, and stable macro/regulatory conditions.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 217.6 (high-case) as an illustrative upside scenario
    • Justification: A multi-year horizon could witness continued margin stability, favorable pricing dynamics, and a re-rating in line with tobacco sector peers if PM executes on growth initiatives and maintains strong cash generation. A move toward 190–210 over the 1–2 year window would be a likely intermediate target; the 3+ year target would require a combination of multiple expansion, earnings growth, and favorable capital allocation.
    • Key drivers: Margin expansion stability, growth in free cash flow, dividend sustainability, regulatory clarity, and favorable consumer pricing dynamics.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key risks
    • Regulatory/regulatory changes affecting product pricing, taxes, or advertising in the tobacco space.
    • Competitive pressure and price wars potentially compressing margins.
    • Higher than expected debt levels or slower-than-expected earnings growth that could lead to multiple compression.
    • Macro headwinds that affect consumer discretionary spending and tobacco demand.
  • Key opportunities
    • Stable and attractive dividend yield with a low-beta profile, supporting total return in risk-averse allocations.
    • Ongoing efficiency initiatives and cost controls that drive margin resilience.
    • Potential for buybacks and capital allocation efficiency to support per-share metrics.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to light buy, with a tilt toward upside if PM confirms continued earnings momentum and regulatory stability.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Base-case target ~182 (illustrative), implying roughly +16% to +26% over current levels depending on the execution of earnings growth and market multiple expansion; the high-case scenario (~217) implies approximately +38% upside, while the low-case (~151) suggests some downside risk if near-term momentum fails to recover.
  • Rationale: The stock presents a balanced risk-reward given its robust profitability, dividend support, and relatively low beta, offset by leverage and regulatory exposure. The market is currently pricing forward earnings with a reasonable multiple, but near-term momentum remains a key determinant.

Price Target Visualization (Data Reference)

  • Low Target: 150.62 (based on 18x forward EPS)
  • Median Target: 182.30 (based on 22x forward P/E)
  • High Target: 217.57 (based on 26x forward P/E)
  • These numbers align with the forward EPS estimate of ~8.368 and the forward P/E framework present in your data (forwardPE ≈ 21.78). They were plotted on the PM chart as three horizontal lines to show a potential support/target band for the next 3–12 months and beyond.

Key Data Tables (selected)

  • Key Metrics (snapshot)
    • Current price: 156.85
    • Market cap: 244,151,042,048
    • Enterprise value: 290,997,633,024
    • Forward P/E: 21.78
    • Trailing P/E: 23.24
    • Price to book: -20.40
    • Dividend yield: 3.79%
    • 50-day beta: 0.479
    • Total cash: 4.14B
    • Total debt: 51.49B
  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected)
    • 2025-06-30: Total Revenue 10.14B; Net Income 3.039B; Diluted EPS 1.95; EBITDA 4.191B
    • 2025-03-31: Total Revenue 9.301B; Net Income 2.69B; Diluted EPS 1.72; EBITDA 4.012B
    • 2024-12-31: Total Revenue 9.706B; Net Income -0.579B; Diluted EPS -0.38; EBITDA 4.346B
  • EPS Trend (illustrative)
    • 0q: current 2.0966; 90d ago 2.1297
    • +1y: 8.3681 forward EPS
  • EPS Revisions (sentiment)
    • 0q: Up7d=1, Up30d=2, Down30d=3, Down7d=0
    • +1y: Up7d=1, Up30d=2, Down30d=3, Down7d=0
  • Technical snapshot (latest)
    • 50-day MA: ~162.9 (as of 2025-10-09)
    • RSI (14): ~38.0
    • MACD: -2.4 (Signal -2.0)

Chart drawing recap

  • I’ve drawn three horizontal trendlines on the active PM chart:
    • Low Target: 150.62 (blue)
    • Median Target: 182.30 (green)
    • High Target: 217.57 (red)

Next steps and user-driven refinements

  • If you have official analyst targets (Low/Median/High) for PM in your dataset, share them and I’ll replace the illustrative targets with the actuals and redraw lines accordingly.
  • If you’d like alternative target frameworks (DCF-based, EV/EBITDA multiples, or a 12–24 month scenario analysis with explicit revenue/margin assumptions), I can generate a reconciled set of numerical targets and the corresponding lines.
  • I can also extend the technical analysis with additional indicators (e.g., ADX, Chaikin, price channels) or adjust the time horizon for the target lines.

Would you like me to replace the illustrative targets with actual analyst targets (if you provide them), or keep the forward-EPS/multiples-based targets and adjust the multiples (e.g., 17x/21x/25x) to reflect a different risk/return scenario?

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