Philip Morris International Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM).

Here is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), incorporating the provided price targets, earnings data, and technical indicators. Horizontal price lines for the three targets have been drawn and extended 30 days from today.

Horizontal trendlines drawn

  • Low Target (153.00): PM line drawn from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01 in blue (#1E90FF).
  • Median Target (190.00): PM line drawn from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01 in orange (#FFA500).
  • High Target (220.00): PM line drawn from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01 in red (#FF0000).

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: PM remains a core defensive tobacco name with steady cash generation and a meaningful dividend yield. The stock trades at a mid-to-high multiple relative to the broad market, reflecting brand strength, resilient margins, and solid cash flow. The analyst community, on average, has a bullish price target but near-term EPS revisions show some caution. The key question is whether the upside from a potential margin and non-combustibles growth trajectory can outpace regulatory and volume headwinds.
  • Price targets imply meaningful upside from the current price of 160.86 USD, with a Low of 153, Median of 190, and High of 220. The mean target (~189.47) sits near the Median, suggesting consensus is tilted toward roughly 15-25% upside over a 9–12 month horizon, with additional upside if non-combustible growth accelerates.
  • Near-term risk-reward: The stock is trading below its 50-day moving average and has a modestly under-50 RSI, signaling potential for stabilization before a sustained move higher. EPS revisions show more downgrades than upgrades in the near term, implying some earnings risk that investors should monitor.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Current valuation and size
    • Current price: 160.86
    • Market cap: 256.666B
    • Enterprise value: 299.699B
    • 50-day MA (late Sep/early Oct snapshot): around 165.0
    • 50-day MA trend shows the price is under the moving average, consistent with a short-term bearish tilt that could normalise with stabilization in earnings and macro conditions.
  • Valuation metrics
    • Trailing P/E: 24.37
    • Forward P/E: 22.34
    • PEG ratio: not available (null)
    • Price-to-book: -20.93 (note: this unusually negative P/B suggests data reporting quirks or an unusual balance-sheet presentation; interpret with caution)
    • Beta: 0.51 (defensive characteristics)
  • Profitability and margins
    • Net profit margin: 21.08%
    • Gross margin: 66.44%
    • Operating margin: 50.09%
  • Financial health
    • Total cash: 4.14B
    • Total debt: 51.49B
    • Dividend yield: 3.57% (vs. 5-year avg 4.95%)
    • Five-year dividend yield average: 4.95%
  • Takeaway: PM shows strong profitability and cash generation with a robust gross/operating margin profile, modest balance-sheet liquidity versus debt, and a dependable but lower-than-historic dividend yield. The negative P/B figure is unusual; rely more on margins, cash flow, and cash generation trends for investment framing.

Analyst Price Targets

  • Target overview
    • Low: 153
    • Mean: 189.47
    • Median: 190
    • High: 220
    • Current price: 160.86
    • Number of analysts: 15
  • Interpretation
    • The spread (153 to 220) indicates a broad range of views, but the central tendency (mean/median ~189–190) implies potential upside of roughly 16-18% to 12-month targets from today’s price, in line with a constructive but cautious stance given EPS revision trends.
  • Data references
    • Recent analyst targets and consensus come from 15 analysts covering PM.
    • High-end target of 220 reflects upside potential if non-combustible growth and cost efficiencies drive earnings expansion.

Recent Earnings Summary (key takeaways)

  • Quarter-by-quarter snapshot (selected data)
    • 2025-06-30:
      • Net income from continuing operations: 3.039B
      • Diluted EPS: 1.95
      • EBITDA: 4.191B
      • EBIT: 3.701B
      • Gross profit: 6.861B
      • Total revenue: 10.140B
  • Observations
    • The June 2025 quarter shows solid profitability with Diluted EPS of 1.95 and positive EBITDA/EBIT, supporting ongoing earnings power.
    • The dataset includes a prior negative quarter (2024-12-31) with Diluted EPS of -0.38, indicating a one-off or unusual item impact in that period. Other quarters show robust earnings signals.
  • EPS trend context
    • Across the recent reports, trailing quarterly EPS are positive and near or above 2.0 in the latest quarter (0q: 2.098), suggesting a rebound versus the negative-outlier quarter.

EPS Trend (historical pattern and implications)

  • Current period (0q): 2.098 per share
  • +1q: 1.807
  • 0y (trailing year): 7.522
  • +1y (forward-year trend): 8.378
  • Interpretation
    • The most recent quarter shows a strong EPS print (~2.10), continuing the positive trend from earlier quarters. The trailing twelve months (0y) and forward-year ( +1y) implied numbers suggest earnings momentum remains resilient, albeit the step-down from 0q to +1q indicates quarterly seasonality and potential one-offs in some quarters.
  • EPS revisions
    • 0q: upgrades in 1–2 quarters in the last 30 days; downgrades in last 30 days exceed upgrades (downLast30days: 3 vs upLast30days: 2)
    • +1q: upgrades in 1–2 periods; downgrades in last 30 days total 3
    • 0y: upgrades in 1–2 periods; downgrades in last 30 days total 3
    • +1y: upgrades in 1–2 periods; downgrades in last 30 days total 3
    • Net takeaway: EPS revisions show a tilt toward modest downgrades across horizons, indicating some near-term earnings risk or caution among analysts, even as recent quarterly results remain positive.
  • Earnings quality
    • Normalized EBITDA and operating income show consistent levels in the latest periods, with gross margins near 66% and operating margins around 50%, signaling earnings quality driven by core business profitability rather than one-off items.

Technical Analysis (as of latest data)

  • Price action and trend
    • PM trades around 160.86, below the 50-day moving average (~165), indicating a near-term bear-case or consolidation phase rather than a fresh up-move.
  • Moving averages
    • 50-day MA: ~165; price is below, suggesting potential for consolidation before a move higher.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14): ~36.5 (late Sep/early Oct snapshot), indicating mildly bearish momentum but not deeply oversold.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Negative values around -1.0 to -1.5 with the MACD line below the Signal line in recent data, signaling continued near-term downward pressure or consolidation rather than a bullish breakout.
  • Interpretation
    • The combination of price below the 50-day MA, a sub-50 RSI, and negative MACD implies near-term headwinds. If PM stabilizes and earnings momentum improves (especially from non-combustible growth and cost discipline), the stock could form a base and re-test resistance near the 170–180 range, with upside potential toward the 190–200 area if consensus targets and revisions turn more positive.

Earnings drivers and risks (summary)

  • Earnings drivers
    • Core profitability: Gross margin ~66%, Operating margin ~50% underscores strong underlying profitability.
    • Cash generation and dividend: Dividend yield ~3.57% provides income support and potential for total-return upside.
    • Non-combustible growth (new products, reduced risk for certain regions): potential earnings diversification and margin expansion if execution is sustained.
    • Cash deployment: share buybacks and capital allocation could support per-share metrics if the dividend remains stable and buybacks are executed.
  • Key risks
    • EPS revisions: more downgrades than upgrades in near-term horizons, signaling earnings caution from the analyst community.
    • Regulatory/regulatory risk in tobacco markets (advertising restrictions, taxation, product regulation) could impact volumes and pricing.
    • Price competition and currency exposure across markets could pressure margins.
    • Dependence on mature tobacco volumes; longer-term growth depends on non-combustible products and geographic diversification.

Investment Targets and Driver Outlook (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: ~190 (Median target; ~18% upside from 160.86)
    • Justification: Near-term stabilization in earnings after the 2024 outlier quarter; consistent quarterly EPS around 2.0 in latest period; analyst mean/median targets sit near 190; potential catalysts include continued execution of cost control and non-combustible portfolio improvements, plus potential multiple re-rating if revisions stabilise.
    • Key drivers: Stable dividend, buybacks if cash flow remains strong, and potential minor positive earnings surprises.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: ~220 (High target)
    • Justification: If PM can sustain margin strength, grow non-combustibles, and deliver consistent cash flow, consensus targets imply meaningful upside. A re-rating could occur if investors gain confidence in non-combustible growth and geographic diversification, with downside risk from regulatory developments priced in.
    • Key drivers: Margin expansion, non-combustible product growth, favorable pricing in emerging markets, and continued capital returns (dividends + buybacks).
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 230–250 range (scenario-based)
    • Justification: A longer horizon would reflect continued execution on diversification into reduced-risk products and successful monetization of non-combustible franchises, alongside stable cash flow and a supportive capital-allocation framework. Potential upside beyond the 220 high is contingent on continued demand resilience and regulatory stability.
    • Key drivers: Sustained non-combustible growth, share repurchase cadence, dividend policy stability, and favorable structural changes in tobacco markets (e.g., gradual volume declines but stronger pricing power, if supported by product mix).

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Regulatory headwinds in key markets could dampen pricing or volumes.
    • Near-term earnings revisions point to lingering uncertainty or cyclicality in quarterly results.
    • Macro currency and inflation dynamics could affect margins and pricing power.
  • Key opportunities
    • Margin resilience and efficiency improvements could sustain high profitability.
    • Strong dividend and capital return policy may attract income-focused investors.
    • Growth in non-combustibles and successful geographic expansion could support multiple expansion and earnings growth.

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to Moderate Buy
  • Rationale: The stock offers a solid dividend yield and a high-margin core business with attractive profitability metrics. The near-term price action shows some headwinds, reflected in the RSI and MACD signals, and EPS revisions have more downgrades than upgrades over the near term. However, consensus price targets indicate meaningful upside over a 9–12 month horizon, particularly if non-combustible growth ramps and earnings stability improves. A measured approach with a hedge against potential volatility (e.g., via position sizing or waiting for a price re-test of the 50-day MA vicinity) may be prudent.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 10–25% upside, with downside risk ~5–10% if earnings revisions escalate or regulatory headwinds intensify. The dividend cushion provides some downside protection.

Price Target Analysis in Summary (Table)

  • Targets shown below reflect the Low/Median/High targets and the current price context.

  • Analyst Targets and Current Price

    • Current Price: 160.86
    • Target Low: 153.00
    • Target Median: 190.00
    • Target High: 220.00
    • Number of Analysts: 15

  • Potential Upside Scenarios

    • Short-Term (3 months): Target ~190 (Median). Upside ~18%.
    • Mid-Term (12 months): Target ~220 (High). Upside ~37%.
    • Long-Term (3+ years): Range 230–250. Upside ~43–55% (relative to current price), conditional on growth in non-combustibles and favorable capital allocation.

Technical Indicators (summary)

  • 50-day MA: ~165; current price below MA suggests near-term consolidation risk before potential upside.
  • RSI (14): ~36.5; indicates room to move higher before becoming overbought.
  • MACD: Negative, with MACD below Signal; suggests caution on near-term upside unless momentum shifts.

Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions (Reference)

  • Earnings Summary (Recent Quarter)
    • 2025-06-30: Net income 3.039B; Diluted EPS 1.95; EBITDA 4.191B; EBIT 3.701B; Gross Profit 6.861B; Total Revenue 10.140B.
  • EPS Trend
    • 0q: 2.098 per share
    • +1q: 1.806 per share
    • 0y: 7.522
    • +1y: 8.378
    • Interpretation: Latest quarterly EPS ~2.10; trailing and forward-looking estimates imply ongoing earnings power, albeit with quarterly fluctuations.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 2, DownLast30days 3, DownLast7Days 0
    • +1q: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 1, DownLast30days 3, DownLast7Days 0
    • 0y: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 1, DownLast30days 3, DownLast7Days 0
    • +1y: UpLast7days 1, UpLast30days 2, DownLast30days 3, DownLast7Days 0
    • Takeaway: There is a tilt toward downgradings over upgrades across horizons, signaling analyst caution in the near term.

Appendix: Data References (Key Figures Used)

  • Price targets: Low 153, Med 190, High 220; Mean 189.47; Current price 160.86; Analysts 15
  • Fundamental metrics: Market cap 256.666B; EV 299.699B; Trailing P/E 24.37; Forward P/E 22.34; P/B negative value; Profit Margin 21.08%; Gross Margin 66.44%; Operating Margin 50.09%; Cash 4.14B; Debt 51.49B; Dividend Yield 3.57%; Beta 0.51
  • Earnings & EPS: 2025-06-30 quarter EPS 1.95; 0q EPS 2.098; 0y/ +1y trailing forward EPS 7.522 / 8.378
  • Technicals: 50-day MA ~165; RSI ~36.5 (early Oct); MACD negative around -1.0 to -1.5

If you’d like, I can also provide a one-page summary slide or a quick-button version of the three price-target lines for a presentation deck, with the chart coordinates and color legend.

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