PepsiCo, Inc. Stock Price Targets

PEP Price Target Analysis and Technical Setup (as of 2025-10-07)

Executive note on the drawing

Horizontal trendlines for price targets have been plotted and extended 30 days into the future (to 2025-11-06) for:
- Low Target: 115.00 (blue)
- Median Target: 155.00 (orange)
- High Target: 170.00 (red)
Ticker: PEP
Current price used: 139.7

Price Target Levels (extended 30 days)

Low Target: 115.00 (extension to 2025-11-06)
Median Target: 155.00 (extension to 2025-11-06)
High Target: 170.00 (extension to 2025-11-06)

Summary table of targets and current price

Current price: 139.7
Low/Median/High targets: 115.0 / 155.0 / 170.0
Upside/downside vs current (approximate):
- Low target: -17.7%
- Median target: +11.0%
- High target: +21.7%
Analyst coverage: 21 analysts
Target mean: 152.0

Detailed analysis

Executive Summary

Investment thesis: PepsiCo (PEP) remains a high-quality, diversified consumer staples name with resilient cash flows, a robust dividend, and a globally diversified portfolio ( beverages and snacks via PepsiCo brands and Frito-Lay). The current price sits near but below the 50-day moving average and implied earnings are solid, though near-term risk is tempered by revisions and macro inputs.
Price outlook: Moderate near-term variance given a softer price level versus the 50-day MA, but upside remains supported by steady EPS, a strong dividend framework, and a favorable long-term CAGR in organic revenue and margin efficiency. The median target implies a roughly 11% upside over the next 3–12 months, with potential for stronger upside if earnings momentum and market multiple expand.

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation snapshots
- Current price: 139.7
- Market cap: 191.7B
- Enterprise value: 237.9B
- Trailing P/E: 25.45
- Forward P/E: 16.19
- Price to book: 10.39
- PEG ratio: not provided
- Dividend yield: 4.01% (5-year avg: 2.92%)
- Beta: 0.458 (defensive profile)
Profitability and efficiency
- Gross margin: ~54.7%
- Operating margin: ~17.5%
- Net profit margin: ~8.23%
- Return on equity (ROE): ~39.9%
- Return on assets (ROA): ~8.5%
Balance sheet and leverage
- Total cash: ~7.97B
- Total debt: ~51.38B
- Debt to equity: ~277% (very high, suggesting material debt load relative to equity; consider this in light of large cash and strong FCF to service debt)
- Net debt consideration: approx 43.4B (assuming cash crosses against debt)
Cash flow and dividends
- High dividend yield supports total return, especially for a defensive, consumer-staples name.
Observations
- PEP trades at a relatively elevated trailing multiple vs. peers, but the forward multiple (~16.2x) reflects expected mid-single-digit growth, stable margins, and sizable cash returns.
- The debt burden is notable; management’s ability to fund growth capital, share repurchases, and dividends underpinned by consistent FCF will be a critical driver of value.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights from the provided quarterly data)

2025-06-30 (most recent quarter in the dataset)
- Total revenue: 22.726B
- Gross profit: 12.422B
- EBITDA: GAAP 2.809B; Normalized EBITDA: 4.668B
- Operating income: 3.649B
- Net income (continuing operations): 1.263B
- Diluted EPS: 0.92
- Tax effect of unusual items: -345.7M
- Total unusual items: -1.86B (including impairment items)
- Normalized income: ~2.78B
2025-03-31
- Net income: 1.834B
- Diluted EPS: 1.33
- EBITDA: ~3.435B
2024-09-30
- Net income: ~2.93B
- Diluted EPS: ~2.13
2024-12-31
- Net income: ~1.523B
- Diluted EPS: ~1.11
Earnings pattern
- The quarter ending 2025-06-30 shows a meaningful impact from unusual items (tax effects and impairments), but normalized earnings (and EBITDA) indicate underlying cash-generative strength.
- The quarterly EPS numbers show variability with the near-term EPS ranging around 2.2 per quarter in the latest period (0q ~2.26; +1q ~2.18). The trailing twelve months (0y) EPS around 8.02, with forward indications (+1y) around 8.49.
EPS trend and momentum
- 0q current EPS ~2.26 with a slight sequential dip vs +1q (~2.18). The longer-term EPS trend shows growth to roughly 8.02 for the trailing year, and ~8.49 in the next year, indicating modest EPS growth expectations embedded in revisions.
EPS revisions
- 0q: upgrades last 7 days = 0; upgrades last 30 days = 2; downgrades last 30 days = 6; downgrades last 7 days = 3
- +1q: upgrades last 7 days = 2; upgrades last 30 days = 4; downgrades last 30 days = 3; downgrades last 7 days = 0
- 0y: upgrades last 7 days = 0; upgrades last 30 days = 4; downgrades last 30 days = 6; downgrades last 7 days = 3
- +1y: upgrades last 7 days = 0; upgrades last 30 days = 4; downgrades last 30 days = 5; downgrades last 7 days = 2
Interpretation
- Near-term sentiment has seen more downgrades than upgrades in the 0q window, which can create modest downward bias in near-term price expectations. However, there are still upgrade signals in the +1q and 0y horizons, implying expectations of some earnings resilience and potential improvement over the next year.

Technical Analysis (last 60 days)

Current action and key levels
- The stock trades around 139.7, below the 50-day MA (MA50) at 143.4, suggesting modest near-term weakness relative to the intermediate trend.
- RSI (14) latest reading ~48.8, around neutral territory (not overbought or oversold).
- MACD (12,26,9): latest MACD ~ -0.7 with Signal ~ -0.7, indicating a neutral to mildly bearish momentum, no clear MACD cross in the most recent window.
Moving averages
- 50-day MA: 143.4 (resistance/benchmark for short- to mid-term trend)
RSI and momentum
- RSI near 49 indicates a lack of strong momentum in either direction; upside catalysts would require a step above key resistance levels (e.g., the MA50).
MACD
- MACD near zero with a neutral signal suggests a risk of a chop zone; breakouts above ~144–145 could bring bullish momentum if accompanied by improving macro/earnings visibility.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Current price: 139.7
Targets (analyst consensus)
- Target Low: 115.0
- Target Median: 155.0
- Target High: 170.0
- Target Mean: 152.0
Coverage
- Number of analysts: 21
Relative stance
- The median target implies ~11% upside vs. current, while the high target implies ~22% upside. The current price sits modestly below the 50-day MA, adding a caveat to near-term upside without a clear breakout.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)
- Target price: 155 (median), with a low of 115 and high of 170
- Justification and drivers:
  - Potential re-acceleration in EPS momentum from improving margins and ongoing cost management
  - Stable cash flow, attractive dividend yield (~4%) supporting total return
  - Value support from forward earnings multiple around 16.2x vs. a mid-teens range for the sector
  - Risks include continued downgrades in near-term EPS revisions and macro headwinds affecting consumer demand and input costs
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target price: 155 (median)
- Justification and drivers:
  - Forward-looking multiple remains attractive given EPS trajectory around 8.5x forward trailing earnings; potential multiple expansion if margins hold or improve and if geographic diversification yields stronger top-line growth
  - Dividend as a steady component of total return; buyback potential could further support the stock
  - EPS revisions show some positive signals over the +1q and 0y horizons; if revisions stabilize and momentum improves, the stock could approach the median target
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target price: 170 (high end)
- Justification and drivers:
  - Structural growth in emerging markets, continued pricing power, and portfolio resilience (beverages and snacks) support long-run earnings growth
  - Research-driven portfolio optimization and potential product innovations can lift margins
  - The dividend framework and share repurchases can compound value; macro tailwinds in global consumer demand could push multiples higher if sustained
  - Risks include currency headwinds, input cost volatility, regulatory/compositional challenges, and competition in key segments

Key Risks & Opportunities

Major risks
- Elevated leverage: High debt-to-equity ratio may constrain financial flexibility and cap investment in growth initiatives
- Input cost and currency volatility: As a global operator, commodity fluctuations and FX can compress margins
- Revisions drift: Near-term EPS downgrades in the 0q window indicate potential earnings volatility
Key opportunities
- Dividend cadence and share repurchases provide attractive total return
- Portfolio breadth across beverages and snacks offers resilience to consumer trends
- Margin discipline and pricing power in developed markets could maintain cash flow strength

Investment Recommendation

Rating: Hold to Moderate Buy, with a bias toward upside over the next 12–24 months if EPS revisions stabilize and if the stock can reclaim its trend above the 50-day MA with positive macro/earnings momentum.
Time horizon: 12–24 months
Expected return potential: Approximately 8–15% upside if the median target is achieved and multiple expansion occurs; potential to approach the high target if earnings momentum and revisions become more constructive.

Key numerical references (selected data in tables)

Price targets and current data
Target Low / Median / High vs. current price
Analyst coverage and target mean
Table: Analyst Price Targets
Table: Current Financial Snapshot
Table: Earnings Summary (selected quarters)
Table: EPS Trend and Revisions
Table: Technical Snapshot (MA, RSI, MACD)

Tables

Price Targets and Current Price

Current price: 139.7
Target Low: 115.0
Target Median: 155.0
Target High: 170.0
Target Mean: 152.0
Upside vs. current (approx.): Low: -17.7%; Median: +11.0%; High: +21.7%

Fundamental Snapshot

Market cap: 191.704B
Enterprise value: 237.934B
Trailing P/E: 25.45
Forward P/E: 16.19
Price to book: 10.39
ROE: 39.9%
ROA: 8.5%
Gross margin: 54.7%
Operating margin: 17.5%
Net margin: 8.23%
Debt to equity: 276.9%
Total cash: 7.97B
Total debt: 51.38B
Net debt (approx): 43.41B
Dividend yield: 4.01%
50-day MA: 143.4
RSI (14): 48.8
MACD: -0.7 (Signal -0.7)
Beta: 0.458

Earnings Snapshot (selected quarters)

2025-06-30
- Total Revenue: 22.726B
- Gross Profit: 12.422B
- EBITDA (GAAP): 2.809B; EBITDA (Normalized): 4.668B
- Operating Income: 3.649B
- Net Income (continuing ops): 1.263B
- Diluted EPS: 0.92
- Normalized Income: ~2.78B
2025-03-31
- Total Revenue: 17.919B
- EBITDA: ~3.435B
- Net Income: 1.834B
- Diluted EPS: 1.33
2024-09-30
- Total Revenue: ~23.319B
- Net Income: ~2.93B
- Diluted EPS: ~2.13
2024-12-31
- Total Revenue: ~27.784B
- Net Income: ~1.523B
- Diluted EPS: ~1.11

EPS Trend (latest)

0q (current): 2.25996
+1q: 2.17562
0y (TTM): 8.0219
+1y: 8.4945

EPS Revisions (count of revisions)

0q: Up last7days: 0; Up last30days: 2; Down last30days: 6; Down last7days: 3
+1q: Up last7days: 2; Up last30days: 4; Down last30days: 3; Down last7days: 0
0y: Up last7days: 0; Up last30days: 4; Down last30days: 6; Down last7days: 3
+1y: Up last7days: 0; Up last30days: 4; Down last30days: 5; Down last7days: 2

Technical Indicators (select)

50-day MA: 143.4
RSI (14): latest around 48.8
MACD: -0.7 (Signal -0.7)

Notes on the price-target drawing

The three lines have been drawn with distinct colors:
- Low Target (115): Blue (#1E90FF), extended to 2025-11-06
- Median Target (155): Orange (#FFA500), extended to 2025-11-06
- High Target (170): Red (#FF0000), extended to 2025-11-06
The extension date is 30 days after 2025-10-07 (i.e., 2025-11-06)

If you’d like, I can:

Add a table summarizing the upside/downside relative to each target with exact percentages.
Include a sensitivity analysis showing how changes in key inputs (EPS, margins, commodity costs) could shift the target alignment.
Overlay additional technical levels (e.g., near-term resistances around 144–146, and a support zone near 135–140) for a fuller chart-based view.