PepsiCo, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Here is a comprehensive PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) analysis with the requested price-target drawings and a detailed multi-faceted view for investors.

Note on price-target drawings

Drawn horizontal lines for Low (115), Median (155), and High (170) targets.
Each line extends 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-10) to 2025-11-09.
Colors:
- Low Target (115): blue (#1E90FF)
- Median Target (155): green (#32CD32)
- High Target (170): orange-red (#FF4500)

Price-target drawings summary (truncated display)

Low Target 115: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (blue)
Median Target 155: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (green)
High Target 170: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (orange)

Executive Summary

Investment thesis: PepsiCo’s diversified portfolio, strong brand moat, and robust cash generation support steady value creation. The stock trades with a relatively high trailing P/E but a more attractive forward multiple, suggesting a potential re-rating as earnings normalize and growth acceleration takes hold. The 4.1% dividend yield adds attractive income characteristics in a low-rate environment.
Near-term view: Modest upside to the median analyst target, aided by improving earnings quality and favorable liquidity/genetic earnings normalization, though GAAP earnings have exhibited volatility due to unusual items and impairment charges in the recent period.
Longer horizon: With a sustainable dividend and low single-digit per-share growth potential, PEP remains a quality, defensive compounder with moderate upside, assuming macro stability and continued buybacks/steady pricing power.

Fundamental Analysis Key metrics (as of 2025-10-10)

Metric	Value	Notes
Current price	144.71	Last traded price
Market cap	198,119,178,240	~198.1B
Enterprise value	233,634,676,736	EV reflects debt and cash position
Trailing P/E	26.41	High vs market; reflects past earnings base
Forward P/E	16.77	Indicates potential valuation multiple compression/expansion as earnings normalize
Price to book	11.01	High vs typical consumer staples peers
Return on equity (ROE)	39.86%	Strong, driven by brand cash flow and capital efficiency
Return on assets (ROA)	8.51%	Healthy asset utilization
Profit margin	8.23%	Solid profitability for a consumer staples firm
Gross margin	54.69%	Stout product margins, effective pricing
Operating margin	17.49%	Good operating leverage
Debt to equity	276.87%	Lightly levered/elevated leverage signal (context below)
Total cash	$7.97B	Liquid balance sheet cushion
Total debt	$51.38B	Substantial but manageable with cash flow
Dividend yield	4.1%	Attractive income pick
Five-year avg dividend yield	2.92%	Higher yield today vs historical average
Beta	0.46	Defensive profile; lower equity beta
Ticker	PEP	PepsiCo

Earnings Analysis Recent earnings summary (selected figures)

Normalized EBITDA progression (quarterly):
- 2025-06-30: $4.668B
- 2025-03-31: $3.435B
- 2024-12-31: $3.332B
- 2024-09-30: $4.812B
- 2024-06-30: $4.993B
Net income from continuing operations (NI):
- 2025-06-30: $1.263B
- 2025-03-31: $1.834B
- 2024-12-31: $1.523B
- 2024-09-30: $2.930B
- 2024-06-30: $3.083B
Unusual items:
- Tax effect of unusual items (2025-06-30): -$346M
- Total unusual items (2025-06-30): -$1.86B (notably, impairment-related charges)
Impairment:
- Impairment of capital assets: $1.86B (non-cash charge) in the period noted
EBITDA/operating metrics:
- EBITDA (selected): 2025-06-30: $2.808B; 2025-03-31: $3.435B; 2024-09-30: $4.812B; 2024-06-30: $4.993B
- Operating income (selected): 2025-06-30: $3.649B; 2025-03-31: $2.583B; 2024-09-30: $3.872B; 2024-06-30: $4.048B
Revenue and margins:
- Total revenue (operating revenue line): $22.726B (latest quarterly reference)
- Gross profit: $12.422B; Cost of revenue: $10.304B
- Gross margin ~54.69%; Operating margin ~17.49%
Takeaways:
- Normalized profitability remains robust; however, GAAP results in the latest period reflect significant one-off and impairment-related charges that depress reported NI.
- The normalization trend is positive: several quarters show elevated EBITDA and operating income versus prior periods, signaling underlying margin resilience.
- Sustainability of margins is supported by price/mix power, product portfolio breadth, and cost discipline.

EPS Trend (as provided)

Period	Current	7 days ago	30 days ago	60 days ago	90 days ago
0q Diluted EPS	2.1945	2.1776	2.1806	2.1743	2.0156
+1q Diluted EPS	1.5728	1.5749	1.5752	1.5634	1.5628
0y Diluted EPS	8.0591	8.0219	8.0217	8.0123	7.8779
+1y Diluted EPS	8.5113	8.4932	8.4970	8.4627	8.3478

Notes:

The 0q and +1q figures reflect quarterly EPS dynamics; the 0y and +1y figures suggest strong year-over-year earnings per share with meaningful growth in the forward/higher horizon.
The presence of large unusual items in GAAP figures can obscure the underlying earnings trajectory; normalized figures provide clearer visibility into ongoing profitability.

EPS Revisions (as provided)

Period	Up Last 7 days	Up Last 30 days	Down Last 30 days	Down Last 7 Days
0q	2	4	3	0
+1q	0	4	1	1
0y	0	4	6	3
+1y	0	4	5	2

Interpretation:

Near-term (0q and +1q) revisions show net upward activity in the first 30 days, suggesting some near-term positive earnings momentum from analysts.
Longer horizon revisions (0y and +1y) skew downward, indicating analyst caution about longer-term earnings growth, possibly due to macro headwinds or cost pressures.

Technical Analysis (last 60 days)

50-day moving average (MA): 143.4 (latest date 2025-10-09)
Price vs MA: Current price 144.71 is slightly above the 50-day MA, suggesting constructive near-term trend but no strong divergence.
RSI (14): 57.3 (neutral to modestly bullish; not overbought)
MACD (12,26,9): Negative on the latest observation (-0.5 vs -0.7 signal), indicating some near-term momentum softness, but the MACD line had been positive in mid-to-late Q3 2025.
Interpretive point: The price trades slightly above the 50-day MA with a neutral RSI and a recently negative MACD, implying the stock could consolidate around the current level without immediate momentum acceleration unless earnings deliver upside beats or visibility improves on free cash flow/return metrics.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Current price: 144.71
Number of analysts: 21
Target high / low / median / mean:
- Low: 115.0
- Median: 155.0
- High: 170.0
- Mean: 152.2381
Observations:
- The median target sits at 155, implying ~7.1% upside from current price to the median target.
- The mean target (~152) suggests the path to price could be range-bound near the mid-150s absent material earnings surprise.
- The dispersion (115–170) highlights a wide range of views, with a notable upside potential if earnings leverage and cash returns improve.
Potential catalysts:
- Normalization of earnings post-unusual items and impairment effects.
- Continued strong cash flow generation and dividend appeal.
- Share repurchase activity and potential for multiple expansion should forward earnings translate into a higher multiple.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months): Target around 155 (Median target)
- Rationale: The median target aligns with current mean expectations; near-term earnings revisions show net upward momentum in the 7–30 day window. Forward P/E (~16.8) and better cash flow support a gentle re-rating if EPS trends hold, aided by a robust dividend.
- Key drivers: Normalized quarterly earnings trajectory; stabilization of unusual items; continued dividend income; favorable macro stance supporting consumer staples.
Mid-Term (12 months): Target around 165
- Rationale: Range between median and high targets suggests potential for incremental multiple expansion if 1) forward earnings deliver above-consensus expectations, 2) cost discipline sustains margins, and 3) debt remains manageable in a rising-rate environment.
- Key drivers: Sustained EBITDA normalization, improving EPS revisions for the next 4–6 quarters, continued strong cash flow and buybacks, and stable demand for core product categories.
Long-Term (3+ years): Target around 190
- Rationale: If earnings compound modestly and the market maintains a constructive multiple for a high-quality consumer staples enterprise, a multi-year horizon could yield mid-to-high single-digit annualized appreciation. A 12–14% annualized path could realize ~190 by year 3–4, depending on macro stability and continued dividend support.
- Key drivers: Structural brand strength, ongoing pricing power, persistent dividend yield, and a stable demand profile in recessionary/non-recessionary scenarios.

Risks and Opportunities

Key Risks
- High leverage signal in debt/equity dynamics (Debt to Equity) could compress equity value if interest rates rise or growth slows.
- Insolation from macro headwinds affecting consumer sentiment and discretionary purchasing, even for essentials.
- GAAP earnings volatility due to unusual items and impairment could cloud near-term profitability comparisons.
Key Opportunities
- Strong cash flow generation supports both buybacks and dividends, potentially driving multiple expansion.
- Forward P/E around 16.8 vs trailing 26.4 implies a lower multiple base that could re-rate as earnings normalize.
- Dividend premium relative to peers could attract yield-seeking investors, supporting price stability.

Investment Recommendation

Recommendation: Hold
Time horizon: 12–24 months
Rationale:
- The stock sits near the 50-day MA with favorable but imperfect momentum; earnings are transitioning from a period of significant unusual items and impairment toward normalization, as evidenced by the strengthened normalized EBITDA and improving NI on several quarters, offset by one-off charges in the latest period.
- Analysts’ targets present a moderate upside to the median (~155) with high-end targets of 170, suggesting limited but not negligible upside potential if earnings momentum continues and leverage remains manageable.
- The current yield of 4.1% provides income support, albeit the total return depends on earnings trajectory and potential multiple expansion.
Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 5–12% upside from the current level, plus 4.1% annual dividend, subject to earnings normalization, macro factors, and capital allocation efficiency.

Technical and Earnings Reference Points (for quick view)

50-day MA (latest): 143.4
Current price: 144.71
RSI (14): 57.3
MACD: Negative near term; potential for a bounce if momentum improves
Forward P/E: 16.77
Major earnings point: Normalized EBITDA rising into 2025 mid-year and beyond; impairment-related charges contribute to GAAP distortions but underlying profitability remains solid.

Appendix: Data references used

Price/valuation: current price, market cap, EV, P/E, P/B, margins, dividend yield, beta
Earnings: Normalized EBITDA by quarter, Net income by quarter (continuing ops), unusual items, impairment
EPS: Trend and revisions data by period (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y)
Technicals: 50-day MA, RSI, MACD (last 60 days)
Analyst targets: current price, number of analysts, target high/low/median/mean

If you’d like, I can:

Update the price-target drawing to include a 30-day extension at a specific future date.
Expand any section with more granular charts or additional peer comparisons (e.g., KO, PM, MDLZ, CPB) to contextualize PepsiCo within the space.
Build a sensitivity table showing how different EPS growth scenarios affect the 12-month target and potential upside.