Oracle Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Oracle Corporation (ORCL).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Oracle Corporation (ORCL).

Below is a comprehensive ORCL (Oracle) analysis with the requested price-target drawing and a detailed price-target narrative. The horizontal lines for Low, Median, and High targets have been drawn and extended 30 days into the future as of 2025-10-07.

  • Low Target line: 175.14 (blue)
  • Median Target line: 345.00 (green)
  • High Target line: 400.00 (orange)

Line extensions run from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Oracle combines a durable software/services revenue base with a meaningful cloud transition and improving efficiency. The stock trades with a rich multiple, but its cash generation, share stability and ongoing cloud demand support a constructive, though moderately hedged, investment case.
  • Overall price outlook: Moderate upside to the median analyst target over a 12-month horizon, with potential further upside toward the high target if cloud adoption accelerates and margins stabilize/improve. Near-term price momentum is ambiguous, with mixed technicals and a broad target range among analysts.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Current price and market context
    • Current price: 291.59
    • Market cap: $838.93B
    • Enterprise value: $914.26B
    • 1-year trailing P/E: 67.50x
    • Forward P/E: 40.72x
    • Price-to-Book: 34.30x
    • ROE: 69.24%
    • ROA: 7.15%
    • Profit margin: 21.08%
    • Gross margin: 69.66%
    • Operating margin: 31.38%
    • Debt-to-equity: 452.53x (very high leverage by some metrics)
    • Total cash: $11.005B
    • Total debt: $111.622B
    • Dividend yield: 0.70%
    • Five-year avg dividend yield: 1.33%
    • Beta: 1.531
  • Observations
    • Valuation is elevated on a traditional P/E basis but partly offset by strong profitability (ROE) and high asset efficiency (gross and operating margins).
    • The balance sheet shows substantial debt vs. cash, implying meaningful interest expense and leverage risk, particularly in rising-rate environments.
    • The dividend yield is modest (0.7%), with a history of returning capital, but the dividend cover should be evaluated against free cash flow generation.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

  • The latest quarter in the provided dataset (2025-08-31) shows:
    • Total Revenue: $14.926B
    • Gross Profit: $10.042B
    • Operating Income: $4.692B
    • Net Income (continuing operations): $2.927B
    • Diluted EPS: $1.01; Basic EPS: $1.04
    • Normalized Income: ~$3.352B
    • EBITDA: $6.121B
    • Total Expenses: $10.234B
    • Net Income: $2.927B
  • QoQ comparison (latest vs prior quarter in the data)
    • Revenue declined modestly vs 2025-05-31: from $15.903B to $14.926B (approx. 6.1% QoQ decline)
    • Normalized income remained solid at ~$3.35B
    • EBITDA and operating income remained robust with commodity mix variations
  • EPS trends (trend data)
    • Current quarter EPS (0q): 1.63459
    • Next-quarter estimate ( +1q): 1.71095 (improved vs current)
    • Year-ago quarter (0y): 6.79583
    • Next-year estimate (+1y): 7.9965
    • Takeaway: Near-term quarterly EPS shows a modest uptick expected; forward-looking EPS suggests a multi-quarter uplift (possibly due to cloud mix and cost discipline) to around $8.00 in the next year, indicating meaningful growth on a trailing basis.
  • EPS revisions (sentiment shifts)
    • 0q revisions: upLast7days = 2; upLast30days = 19; downLast30days = 7; downLast7Days = 1
    • +1q revisions: upLast7days = 0; upLast30days = 22; downLast30days = 6; downLast7Days = 1
    • 0y revisions: upLast7days = 1; upLast30days = 26; downLast30days = 8; downLast7Days = 2
    • +1y revisions: upLast7days = 1; upLast30days = 14; downLast30days = 19; downLast7Days = 2
    • Interpretation: Near-term revisions skew modestly positive in some windows, with more pronounced upward revisions over the 30-day window in many cases, but longer-horizon revisions show a more mixed picture. Overall, revisions are a mix, suggesting analysts are adjusting estimates in response to evolving guidance and sentiment.
  • Earnings quality
    • Revenue remains in the mid-teens billions with stable gross margins around the high 60s to low 70s percentage range.
    • Operating margin ~31%, indicating substantial operating leverage as revenue scales.
    • The sizable debt load provides a dividend/return of capital context but raises interest expense risk in a rising-rate environment.
    • Net income growth appears to be supported by normalization of unusual items and consistent cost management, though cash flow specifics are needed for a deeper view.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and near-term trend
    • Current price: 291.59
    • The price remains above the 50-day moving average, which is around the mid-260s (latest 50-day MA ~263.8 as of 2025-10-06), suggesting a positive near-term bias.
    • RSI (14) as of the latest data: 42.8 — near oversold/neutral boundary, suggesting some room for upside before overbought conditions emerge.
    • MACD (12,26,9) as of the latest data: MACD around 8.0 with a Signal around 11.4 — MACD remains below the signal line, indicating a bearish/slightly negative momentum read in the very near term, though not extreme.
  • Key support and resistance
    • Support candidates: the 50-day MA around 263-264 provides a near-term support level; the drawn low price level (175) marks a distant support band if downside accelerates.
    • Resistance candidates: the median target at 345 provides a clear resistance corridor; the high target at 400 marks a stronger resistance above 345.
  • Moving averages and momentum
    • The price is well above the 50-day MA, which is supportive of a trend continuation if price can sustain above 292 and the MACD turns higher.
    • RSI in the low-40s indicates there is still some room for the stock to move higher without becoming overbought.
  • Summary: Near-term momentum is modestly cautious given MACD vs. price signal, but the price sits above key trend supports (50-day MA) and is within a broader up-trend context toward the mid-high 300s, with clear structural resistance at the 345 and 400 levels.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst price targets and coverage
    • Current price: 291.59
    • Target Low: 175.143
    • Target Median: 345.00
    • Target High: 400.00
    • Target Mean: 330.869
    • Number of Analysts: 35
  • Interpretation
    • The spread is wide: significant downside risk implied by the low (175) and considerable upside potential implied by the high (400) against a current price near 292.
    • The median target (345) implies roughly 18% upside over a 12-month horizon, while the mean target (~330.87) implies about 13% upside.
  • Catalysts
    • Oracle Cloud growth trajectory, AI-enabled offerings, and enterprise IT budgets
    • Margin stabilization and potential cost efficiencies
    • Share repurchase activity and dividend policy
    • Macro tech demand cycles and competitive positioning in cloud services

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Note: The analysis below uses the provided price targets (Low, Median, High) and the current price to frame scenarios. The three horizontal lines drawn at 175.14 (low), 345.00 (median), and 400.00 (high) help visualize risk/reward against current pricing.

Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target scenario: 3-month target around the near-term mean/median range or a conservative move toward the 330–345 zone is plausible if momentum improves.
  • Target: ~320–340 (illustrative near-term range)
  • Justification and key drivers:
    • Near-term earnings cadence and cash generation trends support a constructive stance if revenue stability continues.
    • Technicals show price holding above the 50-day MA with room to re-test the mid-300s; a MACD turn toward the signal line could bolster momentum.
    • Catalysts: quarterly results, AI/cloud updates, potential buybacks, and macro tech demand signals.
  • Upside/downside risk:
    • Upside: A move into the 320–340 range could lock in momentum toward the 345 target.
    • Downside: If Cloud growth slows or macro IT budgets tighten, a test of the 260–290 range could occur, with a risk of retesting nearer the 263 50-day MA.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target scenario: Use the Median Target as the base-case and consider the up/down range around mean.
  • Target: 345.00 (median) as baseline; High case at 400.00 if catalysts outperform expectations
  • Justification and key drivers:
    • EPS trajectory: Forward-looking EPS around 8.0 (1-year forward) vs ~6.8 currently suggests meaningful earnings growth, supported by a mix shift toward higher-margin software/cloud revenue and operating leverage.
    • Revenue trajectory: Cloud revenue contribution and cost discipline could drive margin stability and cash flow expansion.
    • Valuation context: Forward P/E ~40.7x remains elevated but defensible given growth visibility in enterprise IT and Oracle’s cloud stack.
    • Catalysts: stronger cloud adoption numbers, AI-enabled product adoption, and continued capital returns.
  • Upside/downside risk:
    • Upside: Achieving the 400 target would imply a strong sentiment shift and stronger-than-expected cloud growth, contributing to multiple expansion.
    • Downside: If cloud growth stalls or competitive pressure intensifies, the stock could struggle to break into the mid-300s or higher.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target scenario: If Oracle consolidates its cloud-adjacent platforms and expands multi-cloud capabilities, a move toward the high end of the target range could occur.
  • Target: 400.00 (high-case) as a long-term ceiling in a favorable scenario
  • Justification and key drivers:
    • Long-run EPS growth: Sustained revenue growth coupled with margin expansion could compress the multiple in a favorable way, underpinning higher price levels.
    • Strategic positioning: Oracle’s cloud and data-management portfolio may continue to gain enterprise traction, supported by AI-enabled offerings and cross-sell opportunities.
    • Catalysts: tectonic shifts in enterprise software demand, AI integration across Oracle’s stack, and successful international expansion.
  • Upside/downside risk:
    • Upside: If Oracle accelerates its cloud margin profile and deploys capital efficiently, the stock could approach or exceed the 400 target over multi-year horizons.
    • Downside: Persistent debt burden, macroeconomic headwinds, or weaker-than-expected cloud monetization could constrain upside.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • High leverage: substantial debt relative to cash requires ongoing interest coverage; rising rates could pressure earnings and cash flow.
    • Cloud competition: intense competition in cloud services (public cloud players and enterprise software vendors) may compress margins and slow growth.
    • Valuation risk: high trailing multiples may compress if growth expectations temper; macro volatility could impact IT spend.
  • Key opportunities
    • Cloud and AI growth: continued shift to Oracle Cloud and AI-enabled services could drive revenue mix toward higher-margin software/cloud revenue.
    • Margin discipline: cost controls and efficiency gains may support margin expansion, improving profitability.
    • Capital allocation: potential for continued buybacks and dividend support, aiding total shareholder return.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold to Moderate Buy on a 12–24 month horizon
  • Rationale:
    • The stock sits near the 50-day MA, with a constructive risk/reward balance driven by a clear set of price targets and a broad analyst range.
    • The median target (345) offers ~18% upside from 291.59, while the high target (400) implies up to ~37% upside; the wide range reflects cautious investor sentiment around cloud monetization, margins, and leverage.
    • EPS trends and revisions data suggest a favorable forward path in the near-to-medium term, though revisions are mixed across windows, warranting a balanced stance.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 13–18% on baseline (median target to current price), with potential upside to ~37% if the high case materializes and cloud growth accelerates.

Price Target Data Summary (Table)

  • Analyst Targets and Coverage
  • Current price, target low/median/high, number of opinions, and target mean
MetricValue
Current price291.59
Target Low175.14314
Target Median345.00
Target High400.00
Target Mean330.86865
Number of Analyst Opinions35

Relative upside from here (illustrative)

  • To Median: (345.00 - 291.59) / 291.59 ≈ 18.3%
  • To High: (400.00 - 291.59) / 291.59 ≈ 37.1%

Additional Data Tables (Selected)

  • Earnings Summary (latest quarter at 2025-08-31) | Item | USD (Billion) | Value | |---|---|---| | Total Revenue | 14.926 | 14.926B | | Gross Profit | 10.042 | 10.042B | | Operating Income | 4.692 | 4.692B | | Net Income (Continuing Ops) | 2.927 | 2.927B | | Diluted EPS | 1.01 | $1.01 | | Basic EPS | 1.04 | $1.04 | | Normalized Income | 3.352 | ~$3.352B | | EBITDA | 6.121 | $6.121B |

  • EPS Trend (selected periods) | Period | Value (USD) | |---|---| | Current 0q EPS | 1.63459 | | +1q EPS | 1.71095 | | 0y EPS | 6.79583 | | +1y EPS | 7.9965 |

  • EPS Revisions (0q window) | Window | Up last 7 days | Up last 30 days | Down last 30 days | Down last 7 days | |---|---|---|---|---| | 0q | 2 | 19 | 7 | 1 | | +1q | 0 | 22 | 6 | 1 | | 0y | 1 | 26 | 8 | 2 | | +1y | 1 | 14 | 19 | 2 |

  • Technical Indicators (recent) | Indicator | Latest value | |---|---| | 50-day MA | ~263.8 (as of 2025-10-06) | | RSI (14) | 42.8 | | MACD (12,26,9) | MACD ~8.0; Signal ~11.4 (latest) |

Notes on drawing and interpretation

  • Horizontal lines have been drawn at the three price targets:
    • Low Target: 175.14 (blue)
    • Median Target: 345.00 (green)
    • High Target: 400.00 (orange)
  • Each line is extended 30 days into the future from 2025-10-07, ending 2025-11-06, to provide a forward view of where these levels lie on the chart.
  • The analysis uses the earnings summary, EPS trends, and EPS revisions data you provided to inform the Earnings Analysis section and underpin the Price Target Analysis.

If you’d like, I can tailor the Short-Term, Mid-Term, and Long-Term price-target scenarios to different risk profiles (e.g., ultra-bullish, base-case, and conservative) or add sensitivity analysis around a few key assumptions (e.g., cloud growth rate, operating margin improvement, or changes in debt costs).

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