Novartis AG Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Novartis AG (NVS).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Novartis AG (NVS).
We’ve completed the price-target visualization and provided a comprehensive analysis for Novartis AG (NVS) as of 2025-10-07. Horizontal trendlines for the three price targets have been drawn on the chart (Low: 100.00, Median: 124.50, High: 142.00) and extended 30 days into the future.
Horizontal trendlines drawn
- Low Target (100.00) — color: #2ECC71 (green)
- Median Target (124.50) — color: #3498DB (blue)
- High Target (142.00) — color: #E74C3C (red)
Technical note: The time coordinates used for the lines are anchored on 2025-10-07 with lines extending to 2025-11-06 (30 days forward), per your instruction.
All numerical data below are drawn from the data you supplied.
Executive Summary
- Novartis (NVS) trades with a forward P/E around 15.7, backed by a healthy ROE (~32.5%), robust gross margins (~76%), and a strong operating margin (~37%).
- The stock pays a meaningful dividend yield (~3.02%), supported by substantial cash flow generation, though the balance sheet shows significant debt relative to cash.
- Current price (~132.25) sits above the median analyst target (~124.50) and the mean target (~122.05), while the high target (~142) implies potential upside of roughly 7% from the current level. The downside risk to the low target (~100) represents ~24% downside.
- RSI is currently elevated (~82) signaling potential near-term overbought conditions, but MACD remains bullish and the 50-day moving average (~123.7) sits well below the current price, suggesting room for further upside if fundamentals and sentiment align.
- EPS revisions show a modest tilt toward upgrades in the near term, which can support continued earnings resilience.
Fundamental Analysis
Table: Key Valuation & Financial Metrics
- Source: Provided data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $132.25 |
| Market Cap | $256.89B |
| Enterprise Value | $281.99B |
| Trailing P/E | 19.28 |
| Forward P/E | 15.71 |
| PEG Ratio | — (null) |
| Price to Book | 6.10 |
| Return on Equity (ROE) | 32.49% |
| Return on Assets (ROA) | 11.88% |
| Profit Margin | 24.74% |
| Gross Margin | 76.28% |
| Operating Margin | 36.83% |
| Debt to Equity | 77.61 |
| Total Cash | $6.73B |
| Total Debt | $32.64B |
| Dividend Yield | 3.02% |
| Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 3.61% |
| Beta | 0.569 |
Notes:
- Leverage remains non-trivial (D/E ~77.6) but cash generation and margins are strong for the sector.
- The company’s dividend yield is attractive but sustainability will depend on cash flow, capex, and pipeline spend.
Earnings Analysis
Recent Earnings Summary (Latest quarter and peers)
Table: Recent Earnings Summary (USD, billions except EPS)
- Source: Provided data snapshot
| Period | Total Revenue | Operating Revenue | EBITDA | EBIT | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 14.836 | 14.054 | 6.076 | 4.820 | 4.041 | 2.06 | 2.07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 13.620 | 13.233 | 5.831 | 4.677 | 3.606 | 1.82 | 1.83 |
| 2024-12-31 | 13.558 | 13.153 | 5.188 | 3.560 | 2.818 | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| 2024-09-30 | 13.172 | 12.823 | 5.614 | 3.649 | 3.189 | 1.57 | 1.58 |
| 2024-06-30 | 12.872 | 12.523 | 5.249 | 4.087 | 3.246 | 1.59 | 1.60 |
| 2024-03-31 | 12.872 | 12.523 | 5.249 | 4.087 | — | — | — |
Notes:
- The latest quarter (2025-06-30) shows solid revenue and earnings delivery with Diluted EPS of 2.06 and Net Income of $4.04B.
- EPS figures are volatile between quarters, reflecting mix shifts in product mix, milestones, or tax effects (see Tax Rate for Calcs and Tax Provision in the data you provided).
- The trailing twelve months’ EPS derived from this data set aligns with a multi-quarter EPS base around the low-to-mid 2s per quarter, reflecting continued profitability.
EPS Trend (selected series)
| Series | Current | 7 days ago | 30 days ago | 60 days ago | 90 days ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q (quarterly) | 2.3108 | 2.3065 | 2.2944 | 2.2944 | 2.2323 |
| +1q | 2.0531 | 1.9816 | 2.0175 | 2.0175 | 2.0487 |
| 0y (TTM) | 9.0012 | 8.9911 | 9.0195 | 8.9995 | 8.8373 |
| +1y | 9.3556 | 9.3456 | 9.3059 | 9.2821 | 9.1718 |
EPS Revisions (count of upgrades/downgrades)
| Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| +1q | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 0y | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| +1y | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Interpretation:
- Near-term EPS revisions show a modest tilt toward upgrades in both the 0q and +1q categories, with some downgrades in the 0y and +1y views. Net, revisions are modestly constructive, which can support valuation support if earnings power remains intact.
Technical Analysis
Current price action and key indicators (last 60 days and latest data)
- Current price: $132.25
- 50-Day Moving Average (latest): $123.7
- RSI (14) (latest): 81.9 (overbought territory)
- MACD (12,26,9) (latest): MACD 1.8, Signal 0.9 (bullish cross recently)
Interpretation:
- Price is above the 50-day MA, indicating a bullish intermediate trend.
- RSI at ~82 signals overbought risk; could imply a near-term pause or consolidation.
- MACD remains positive with a rising trajectory, supporting continued upside if macro/ fundamentals stay supportive.
Key support/resistance levels (from targets)
- Support near the 50-day MA region around 124–126 depending on intraday moves.
- Immediate resistance around the High Target at 142.00.
- The Trendlines drawn at 100 (support) and 124.50 (mid) serve as additional framework for the downside/upside risk.
Notes:
- With a current price of 132.25, NVS sits well above the 50-day MA, but RSI warns of potential pullbacks if buyers become fatigued in the near term. The $142 level represents a meaningful upside resistance.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
Analyst Target Snapshot
- Current price: $132.25
- Target Low: $100.00
- Target Median: $124.50
- Target High: $142.00
- Target Mean: $122.054
- Number of Analysts: 10
Interpretation:
- The median target (124.50) and mean target (122.05) sit below the current price, implying a modest near-term reversion risk or a premium built into the current price.
- The high target (142.00) offers upside potential if the next catalysts materialize.
- With 10 analysts covering, the spread between median and high is notable, indicating some dispersion in expectations.
Table: Analyst Consensus Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $132.25 |
| Target Low | $100.00 |
| Target Median | $124.50 |
| Target High | $142.00 |
| Target Mean | $122.05 |
| Analysts Count | 10 |
Other context:
- The stock has a healthy dividend yield with a conservative beta (~0.57), suggesting relatively lower broad-market beta exposure, which can influence price stability.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: around 125 (near-term mean/median) is a balanced base-case
- Justification: RSI indicates overbought conditions near 82; near-term profit-taking and a reversion toward the mean target (~124.5) could occur. The current price sits above the median/mean targets, implying some near-term risk of a pullback toward the 124.5 area.
- Key drivers: near-term earnings sentiment (EPS revisions show modest upgrades in 0q/+1q), macro pharma environment, potential volatility around Biopharma news, and general market momentum.
- Upside possibility: If positive earnings surprises materialize and multiple-expansion confidence returns, potential approach to the high target (142) remains possible.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: around 130–140 range
- Justification: Forward P/E (~15.7) suggests reasonable valuation for a high-quality pharma business with robust margins and dividend. If earnings momentum remains constructive and EPS revisions stay positive, multiple expansion could push shares toward the high end of the range.
- Key drivers: pipeline progress, regulatory milestones, continued margin efficiency, and execution on cost controls; steady dividend growth could support demand from income-focused investors.
- Upside potential: If the company executes well on late-stage assets or launches, 140+ remains achievable.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 150–170 (ballpark)
- Justification: With durable cash generation, ongoing dividend support, and potential pipeline successes, a multi-year earnings trajectory could support a higher multiple and higher price target in a favorable macro environment.
- Key drivers: sustained revenue growth from core franchises, successful commercialization of late-stage candidates, currency dynamics, and competitive positioning in a biotech/pharma landscape.
- Risks: long-cycle pipeline risk, regulatory delays, competition, and material changes in tax/regulatory policy.
Summary table (targets in USD)
| Horizon | Target Range | Most Justified Target | Rationale & Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (3 months) | 100–125 | ~125 | Near-term pullback risk given overbought RSI; reversion toward median target; modest positive revision signal. |
| Mid-Term (12 months) | 120–140 | ~135–140 | Valuation support from forward P/E; earnings momentum and pipeline progress; potential multiple expansion. |
| Long-Term (3+ years) | 150–170 | ~160 | Durable cash flow, dividend appeal, pipeline outcomes, macro tailwinds; higher confidence in growth trajectory. |
Note: The explicit price targets (low/median/high) you provided (100, 124.5, 142) anchor the analysis. The internal short/mid/long-term targets above are reasoned extrapolations using the data you supplied (analyst coverage, forward earnings, margins, and valuation). The current price being above median suggests a reversion risk in the very near term unless catalysts emerge.
Key Risks & Opportunities
Key Risks
- Elevated RSI suggests possible short-term pullback; sentiment could swing on pharma news, currency fluctuations, or regulatory updates.
- High debt relative to cash could pressure coverage during weaker operating environments; though margins are robust, leverage remains a structural consideration.
- Macro-driven rate and FX movements can affect valuations and dividend sustainability.
Key Opportunities
- Strong margins and ROE indicate durable profitability and potential for continued buybacks/dividend support.
- Positive EPS revisions across multiple horizons (+1q, +1y) point to constructive earnings momentum.
- A diversified and robust pipeline with potential late-stage asset approvals could unlock multiple value inflection points.
Investment Recommendation
- Recommendation: Hold
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Rationale:
- The stock trades above the median analyst target (132.25 vs. 124.50), implying limited upside in the very near term unless catalysts materialize.
- However, the quality of earnings (solid margins, strong ROE), dividend yield, and a favorable forward valuation (forward P/E ~15.7) support a constructive longer-term stance.
- The presence of horizontal support at 100 and resistance around 142 provides a clear risk/reward framework.
Expected return potential (12–24 months)
- Base case: modest single-digit (roughly 0–8% upside) if earnings momentum is steady and market multiples compress/mature.
- Upside case: approaching the high target (142) in a favorable scenario could yield mid-to-high single-digit returns (~+7% to +15%).
- Downside scenario: breaching the 100 level on persistent headwinds could imply mid-to-high teens downside.
If you’d like, I can:
- Add a momentum-based scenario analysis (e.g., run a quick probabilistic model using the provided EPS revisions and MACD trajectory).
- Create an at-a-glance dashboard summarizing the three trendlines and the current technical indicators (50-day MA, RSI, MACD) with color-coded signals.
- Offer a sensitivities table showing how small changes in the forward EPS, margin assumptions, or multiple affect the price targets.