NVIDIA Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).

NVDA Comprehensive Analysis (as of 2025-10-07)

Note: Three horizontal lines have been drawn on the price chart for the target levels:

  • Low Target = 100.00 (blue)
  • Median Target = 211.00 (green)
  • High Target = 275.00 (orange/red) Each line extends 30 days into the future from today.
  1. Executive Summary
  • Investment thesis: NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the dominant AI accelerator play with strong visibility into data-center GPU demand, robust margins, and a track record of significant earnings leverage. The stock trades at a premium multiple, but this reflects the strategic role of NVDA in AI infrastructure and ongoing AI capex by hyperscalers and enterprises.
  • Current price vs. targets: NVDA trades around $185.54 with a consensus price target setup among 56 analysts. Key targets are:
    • Low: 100.00
    • Median: 211.00
    • High: 275.00
  • Short-term upside vs. current price: The median and mean targets imply roughly 14–16% upside in the near term, with higher upside under the bull/high-target scenario.
  • Valuation nuance: Trailing P/E ~52.9 and forward P/E ~45.0; price-to-book around 45x. These reflect AI-cycle-driven growth expectations, but also reflect a rich growth premium and execution risk in semis.
  • Key risk factors: AI demand sensitivity to enterprise budget cycles, competition in accelerators, potential supply/demand shifts in hyperscale capex, regulatory risk, and macro headwinds impacting capex timing.
  1. Fundamental Analysis
  • Valuation and quality metrics (as of 2025-10-07)
  • Current Price: $185.54
  • Market Cap: $4.517 trillion
  • Enterprise Value: $4.462 trillion
  • Trailing P/E: 52.86
  • Forward P/E: 45.03
  • Price/Book: 45.11
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 1.09417 ≈ 109.4%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 0.53094 ≈ 53.1%
  • Profit Margin: 0.524 ≈ 52.4%
  • Gross Margin: 0.69847 ≈ 69.8%
  • Operating Margin: 0.60843 ≈ 60.8%
  • Debt to Equity: 10.584x
  • Total Cash: ~$56.8B
  • Total Debt: ~$10.6B
  • Dividend Yield: 0.02%
  • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield: 0.06%
  • Beta: 2.123
  • Observations:
    • Extremely high profitability and cash generation with strong gross and operating margins.
    • Very favorable cash position with modest absolute debt, supporting capacity to fund growth.
    • Very high beta indicates higher sensitivity to market moves, consistent with premium growth stocks in tech.
  1. Earnings Analysis

Recent Earnings Summary (selected quarters)

  • 2025-07-31:
    • Total Revenue: $46.743B
    • Operating Income: $28.440B
    • EBITDA: $31.937B
    • Net Income: $26.422B
    • Diluted EPS: $1.08
  • 2025-04-30:
    • Total Revenue: $44.062B
    • Operating Income: $21.638B
    • EBITDA: $22.584B
    • Net Income: $18.775B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.76
  • 2025-01-31:
    • Total Revenue: $39.331B
    • Operating Income: $24.034B
    • EBITDA: $25.821B
    • Net Income: $22.091B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.89
  • 2024-10-31:
    • Total Revenue: $35.082B
    • Operating Income: $21.869B
    • EBITDA: $22.855B
    • Net Income: $19.309B
    • Diluted EPS: $0.78

Commentary:

  • The company delivered a meaningful acceleration in revenue and earnings in the latest quarter (2025-07-31), with EBITDA and net income rising sharply vs prior periods.
  • Normalized EBITDA (latest) reached ~$31.94B, underpinning strong cash flow generation.
  • EPS progression remains favorable, with the near-term quarterly EPS showing strength and a multi-quarter trajectory upward.

EPS Trend

  • Periods (latest to prior): current, 7 days ago, 30 days ago, 60 days ago, 90 days ago
  • 0q: 1.24314, 1.24182, 1.23977, 1.1839, 1.16673
  • +1q: 1.41549, 1.41609, 1.4125, 1.35156, 1.33268
  • 0y: 4.50245, 4.49903, 4.48691, 4.30241, 4.27639
  • +1y: 6.37134, 6.34989, 6.31891, 5.85866, 5.72793

EPS Revisions (up/down activity)

  • 0q: Up Last 7 Days 0; Up Last 30 Days 29; Down Last 30 Days 6; Down Last 7 Days 0
  • +1q: Up Last 7 Days 1; Up Last 30 Days 5; Down Last 30 Days 1; Down Last 7 Days 0
  • 0y: Up Last 7 Days 1; Up Last 30 Days 7; Down Last 30 Days 1; Down Last 7 Days 0
  • +1y: Up Last 7 Days 2; Up Last 30 Days 40; Down Last 30 Days 3; Down Last 7 Days 0
  1. Technical Analysis
  • Current price action: The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a short- to medium-term bullish bias.
  • 50-day Moving Average (latest): 178.3 (as of 2025-10-06)
  • RSI (14): 63.4 (mid- to high-range, indicating modestly bullish momentum)
  • MACD (12,26,9): 3.1; Signal: 2.1 (bullish MACD crossover observed in recent data)
  • Interpretation: The combination of price above the 50-DMA, rising MACD, and a still-supportive RSI suggests continued upside potential, subject to AI-cycle demand and broader market conditions.

50-day MA progression (selected recent values)

  • The 50-DMA has been trending higher, consistent with the recent upside in NVDA shares.

RSI Momentum

  • RSI values have recently strengthened, with readings in the 60s, indicating positive but not extreme momentum.

MACD Trend Signals

  • The MACD remains above the signal line and positive, implying ongoing bullish momentum.
  1. Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
  • Current Price: $185.54
  • Target High Price: $275.00
  • Target Mean Price: $214.79071
  • Target Low Price: $100.00
  • Target Median Price: $211.00
  • Number of Analysts: 56
  • Implied upside (based on mean): ~15.6% from current price
  • Implied upside (based on median): ~14% from current price
  • Implied upside (based on high): up to ~48% from current price
  • Interpretation: The consensus is constructive with a meaningful upside implied by mean/median targets, while the high target suggests significant optionality if AI demand strengthens. The dispersion reflects varied expectations on AI adoption pace, supply/demand dynamics, and margin progression.
  1. Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target range: around 211–216 (Median to Mean targets)
  • Justification:
    • Current price of 185.54 vs. mean target of 214.79 implies roughly 15% upside in the near term.
    • Near-term catalysts: continued strength in data-center AI demand, robust quarterly earnings delivery, and AI infra capex momentum from hyperscalers.
  • Key drivers:
    • Sustained high gross and operating margins (as shown in recent quarterly results).
    • Continued AI software/hardware demand with GPU refresh cycles.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: mean 214.79; high 275.0
  • Justification:
    • 12-month consensus supports mid-teens to high-teens upside on base-case scenarios; the distribution shows a wide range with a notable bull case at 275.
  • Base-case scenario:
    • Expect NVDA to sustain AI GPU demand, expand margins further in software-enabled AI workloads, and maintain leading market share in accelerators.
  • Key drivers:
    • AI adoption acceleration, data-center capex environment, and potential further product roadmap milestones.
  • Upside potential vs. risk:
    • Moderate-to-high upside if AI demand remains robust; downside risk if macro headwinds or AI spending slows.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target range (driving drivers): 250–350+ depending on sustained AI adoption, data-center growth, and multiple expansion
  • Drivers:
    • Prolonged AI infrastructure cycle (GPU and platform stack leadership)
    • Margin expansion opportunities and possible operating leverage
    • Potential for accelerated share buybacks or capital allocation efficiency
  • Considerations:
    • Valuation remains premium; long-term upside depends on durable AI demand, diversification of revenue streams (e.g., software, tooling), and the broader AI ecosystem expansion.
  • Note:
    • The explicit high target of 275 provides a bull-case reference for the 12+ month horizon; longer-term potential beyond 275 would require continued strong execution and AI demand tailwinds.
  1. Key Risks & Opportunities
  • Risks:
    • Cyclical AI demand variability and enterprise budget volatility
    • Competitive pressure in AI accelerators and potential crowding in certain segments
    • Supply chain and geopolitical risks impacting chip manufacturing and delivery
    • Regulatory and geopolitical considerations affecting data-center and AI investments
  • Opportunities:
    • Structural growth in AI workloads and adoption across cloud, enterprise, and edge
    • Expanding opportunity set from software, tools, and platform services around AI infra
    • Operating leverage from scale and continued gross-to-operating margin expansion
  1. Investment Recommendation
  • Rating: Hold
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • Positive earnings trajectory and solid cash generation support upside potential to mean target and the bull-case high target, but valuation remains premium.
    • Given the current level of AI demand and NVDA’s market leadership, the stock could produce mid-teens upside to the mean target in the near term, with a path to higher levels if AI adoption accelerates and margins remain robust.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 10–25%, depending on the path of AI capex, enterprise demand, and broader market multiple expansion.

Tables and data recap (selected)

  • Analyst Targets and Pricing

  • Target High: 275.00

  • Target Mean: 214.79071

  • Target Low: 100.00

  • Target Median: 211.00

  • Current Price: 185.54

  • Number of Analysts: 56

  • Earnings Summary (selected quarters)

  • Revenue (latest four quarters): 46.743B / 44.062B / 39.331B / 35.082B

  • Operating Income: 28.440B / 21.638B / 24.034B / 21.869B

  • EBITDA: 31.937B / 22.584B / 25.821B / 22.855B

  • Net Income: 26.422B / 18.775B / 22.091B / 19.309B

  • Diluted EPS: 1.08 / 0.76 / 0.89 / 0.78

  • EPS Trend (selected periods) Periods: 0q, +1q, 0y, +1y

  • Current: 1.24314 / 1.41549 / 4.50245 / 6.37134

  • 7 days ago: 1.24182 / 1.41609 / 4.49903 / 6.34989

  • 30 days ago: 1.23977 / 1.4125 / 4.48691 / 6.31891

  • 60 days ago: 1.1839 / 1.35156 / 4.30241 / 5.85866

  • 90 days ago: 1.16673 / 1.33268 / 4.27639 / 5.72793

  • EPS Revisions (periods: 0q, +1q, 0y, +1y) Period: UpLast7d / UpLast30d / DownLast30d / DownLast7d

  • 0q: 0 / 29 / 6 / 0

  • +1q: 1 / 5 / 1 / 0

  • 0y: 1 / 7 / 1 / 0

  • +1y: 2 / 40 / 3 / 0

  • Technical Indicators (last 60 days)

  • 50-Day MA: 178.3 (latest date 2025-10-06)

  • RSI (14): 63.4 (latest date 2025-10-06)

  • MACD (12,26,9): 3.1; Signal: 2.1 (latest date 2025-10-06)

  • Price Target Lines (drawn on chart)

  • Low Target: 100.00 (Blue) - drawn 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

  • Median Target: 211.00 (Green) - drawn 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

  • High Target: 275.00 (Orange-Red) - drawn 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

Important notes on the data

  • Earnings data reflect the period-to-period movement with notable expansion in latest quarter.
  • EPS Trend indicates a rising trend in both short-term and longer-term periods, aligned with robust gross and operating margins.
  • EPS Revisions show more upward revisions over longer windows, suggesting continued analyst confidence in NVDA’s earnings trajectory.

If you’d like, I can also:

  • Expand the earnings analysis with a more detailed quarterly breakdown or a trailing twelve months (TTM) view.
  • Build a more formal probability-weighted scenario model (bull/base/bear)
  • Add a sensitivity analysis around the price targets relative to P/E and EPS growth assumptions

Sources used for data (as provided in your prompt):

  • Price, market cap, enterprise value, P/E, P/B, margins, debt/cash, dividend yield, beta
  • Analyst targets and coverage: targetHighPrice, numberOfAnalystOpinions, targetMeanPrice, targetLowPrice, targetMedianPrice
  • Recent earnings summaries (revenue, EBITDA, operating income, net income, EPS)
  • EPS trend and revisions data
  • Technical indicators: 50-day MA, RSI, MACD values
  • RSI and MACD data (last 60 days)
  • 50-day MA progression, RSI, MACD data as of latest dates

Note: All numerical data in this analysis is taken from the data you provided and presented in Markdown-friendly tables above.

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