NVIDIA Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
Comprehensive NVDA Analysis as of 2025-10-11
Price levels drawn on chart
- Low Target: 100.00 (green) – extending 30 days forward
- Median Target: 211.00 (blue) – extending 30 days forward
- High Target: 300.00 (red) – extending 30 days forward
Technical note: Horizontal lines were plotted with p1 time 2025-10-11 and p2 time 2025-11-10 to extend 30 days beyond today. Ticker NVDA. Colors chosen to reflect support (green), target/central (blue), and resistance/high (red).
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a core AI infrastructure beneficiary with strong data-center GPU demand, expanding software/accelerator ecosystems, and a durable market moat. The stock trades at premium multiples, reflecting elevated growth expectations, but the strategic AI/dL footprint continues to support a long-duration uptrend if AI adoption remains robust.
- Price outlook (base case): Near-term upside toward the median target around 211–215, with potential to exceed 230–240 in a constructive AI/enterprise cycle. Longer-term upside could approach or surpass 300 if data-center demand remains resilient and new product cycles (e.g., GPUs, AI accelerators) scale faster than expectations.
- Key caveats: Macro volatility, supply/demand dynamics in data-center GPU cycles, and competition/regulatory considerations could temper upside. Valuation remains premium, so risk-adjusted upside should be considered in light of the high-quality earnings framework.
Fundamental Analysis
- Current valuation and market positioning
- Current Price: 183.16
- Market Cap: 4.4599T USD
- Enterprise Value: 4.6333T USD
- Trailing P/E: 52.33; Forward P/E: 44.46
- Price to Book: 44.53
- PEG: not provided (null)
- Dividend Yield: 0.02% (historical five-year avg 0.06%)
- Beta: 2.123 (high_beta; reflects AI growth sensitivity)
- Financial health and profitability
- ROE: 109.4% (1.09417)
- ROA: 53.1%
- Profit Margin: 52.4%
- Gross Margin: 69.85%
- Operating Margin: 60.84%
- Debt to Equity: 10.58x (elevated leverage signal, but cash-rich balance sheet moderates risk)
- Total Cash: 56.8B
- Total Debt: 10.6B
- Liquidity and balance sheet stance
- Cash position is strong, with modest net debt given the very large cash flow generation; however, debt/eq remains high historically for NVDA due to capitalization strategy. Capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) has historically been supportive of shareholder value, albeit at a very high growth premium.
Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter: 2025-07-31)
- Total Revenue: 46.743B
- Gross Profit: 33.853B
- Operating Income: 28.44B
- EBITDA: 31.937B
- EBIT: 28.44B
- Net Income (Continuing Ops): 26.422B
- Diluted EPS: 1.08; Basic EPS: 1.08
- Tax provision: 4.784B; Effective tax rate for calculations around 15.3%
- Notable items: Normalized EBITDA ~31.94B; Normalized Income ~26.422B
- Observations: Revenue and profitability remained robust with high gross and operating margins. The quarter reflects continued data-center demand, strong pricing power, and operating leverage.
EPS Trend (trend data)
- Current 0q EPS: 1.243
- +1q EPS: 1.415
- 0y EPS: 4.502
- +1y EPS: 6.371 Interpretation: The EPS progression shows meaningful year-over-year expansion and strength across forward quarters, consistent with a high-growth AI/accelerator cycle. The (+1y) figure suggests strong annualized earnings growth, while the latest quarter has shown sequential momentum.
EPS Revisions
- 0q: UpLast7Days 0; UpLast30Days 29; DownLast30Days 6; DownLast7Days 0
- +1q: UpLast7Days 1; UpLast30Days 5; DownLast30Days 1; DownLast7Days 0
- 0y: UpLast7Days 1; UpLast30Days 7; DownLast30Days 1; DownLast7Days 0
- +1y: UpLast7Days 2; UpLast30Days 40; DownLast30Days 3; DownLast7Days 0 Interpretation: The revisions data indicate a clear tilt toward upgrades over the last 30 days in aggregate, with the strongest net upgrades for the +1y view. This supports a constructive earnings trajectory and consensus around higher future earnings.
Technical Analysis
- Price action and momentum
- Current Price: ~183.16 (as of 2025-10-11)
- 50-Day Moving Average: ~178.3 (latest 2025-10-10 value)
- RSI (14) recent readings showing strength with recent highs near the 70s
- MACD: Positive; latest MACD ~3.2 vs. Signal ~2.8 (bullish crossover dynamics in recent period)
- Support and resistance context
- Near-term dynamic support around the 50-day MA (~178)
- Resistance implied by analyst targets around 211 (median) to 300 (high), with upside optionality above 211 if AI demand remains robust
- Technical takeaway: The stock is trading above the 50-day MA with bullish momentum indicators (RSI elevated, MACD positive), yet valuation remains premium. The horizontal target lines provide guideposts for potential resistance/support in the coming weeks to months.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current price: 183.16
- Target Low: 100.00
- Target Mean: 215.89964
- Target Median: 211.00
- Target High: 300.00
- Number of Analysts: 57 Interpretation: The median/mean targets imply a modest to meaningful upside from current levels over the next 12–24 months, with a significant skew toward higher upside risk/reward in the base/optimal scenario. The mean target (~216) suggests ~18% upside vs current price, while the high target (~300) implies substantial optionality if AI cycle accelerates.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
- Short-Term (3 months): Target ~211. Rationale: Near-term momentum remains positive, with continued data-center demand, favorable AI software/accelerator integration, and revisions showing net upgrades. Potential drivers include enterprise AI adoption cycles, Nvidia product cycle updates, and capital expenditure patterns in hyperscalers.
- Mid-Term (12 months): Target ~215. Reasoning: Persistent AI compute demand, sustained gross/margin discipline, and improving product mix could push valuation toward the mean/upper end of street expectations. Also, potential catalysts include new GPU architectures or software ecosystem expansions.
- Long-Term (3+ years): Target ~300+. Drivers: Structural AI accelerators adoption, rising compute needs in cloud/enterprise, AI training/inference demand across industries, and Nvidia’s ecosystem moat (CUDA, software stack, developer ecosystems). The 300 target reflects optionality if AI adoption accelerates beyond currently projected trajectory and pricing power remains durable.
- Summary table
| Horizon | Target (USD) | Justification & Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (3 months) | 211 | Positive near-term momentum; upgrades-to-downgrades balance leaning bullish; hyperscaler/enterprise AI capex, AI workloads, and product cycle news as catalysts; risk: macro uncertainties. |
| Mid-Term (12 months) | 215.90 | Steady AI compute demand, gross/margin stability, potential product/tech seniority gains; valuation remains premium but supported by earnings trajectory. |
| Long-Term (3+ years) | 300 | Durable AI runtime demand, data-center expansion, CUDA/software moat, large-scale enterprise AI adoption, and ongoing share gains; contingent on continued execution and macro stability. |
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Key Risks
- Demand volatility in enterprise AI budgets and hyperscale capex cycles
- Competition and potential margin pressure from alternative accelerators or supply chain constraints
- Regulatory scrutiny and geopolitics affecting AI deployment and data-center capacity
- High valuations leave less cushion for multiple compression under adverse macro scenarios
- Key Opportunities
- Structural tailwinds from AI adoption across industries (cloud, edge, autonomous systems)
- Continued leadership in GPU compute, software ecosystem (CUDA, libraries), and AI tooling
- Potential upside from new product cycles, higher ASPs, and expanding data-center footprint
Key Metrics (Table)
- Summary of important figures for quick reference
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 183.16 |
| Market Cap | 4.4599T |
| Enterprise Value | 4.6333T |
| Trailing P/E | 52.33 |
| Forward P/E | 44.46 |
| Price to Book | 44.53 |
| ROE | 109.4% |
| ROA | 53.1% |
| Profit Margin | 52.4% |
| Gross Margin | 69.85% |
| Operating Margin | 60.84% |
| Debt to Equity | 10.58x |
| Total Cash | 56.8B |
| Total Debt | 10.6B |
| Dividend Yield | 0.02% |
| Five-Year Avg Div Yield | 0.06% |
| Beta | 2.123 |
Earnings, EPS Trends, and Revisions referenced
- Earnings Summary (latest quarter 2025-07-31): Total Revenue 46.743B; Gross Profit 33.853B; Operating Income 28.44B; EBITDA 31.937B; Net Income 26.422B; Diluted EPS 1.08
- EPS Trend: Current 0q EPS 1.243; +1q 1.415; 0y 4.502; +1y 6.371 (growth trajectory supportive of higher forward earnings)
- EPS Revisions: Net upgrades visible across 30-day horizon for multiple periods; 0q shows 29 upgrades vs 6 downgrades in the last 30 days; +1y shows 40 upgrades vs 3 downgrades; overall positive revision momentum
- Tax considerations: Tax Rate For Calcs around 15.3% in the latest period
Investment Recommendation
- Outlook: Buy/Strong Buy with a multi-year horizon (12–24 months) given the AI cycle tailwinds, Nvidia’s dominant data-center GPU position, and the sizeable target distribution implied by consensus targets.
- Target range implication: Moderate upside to the median/mean targets (~211–216) and substantial optionality toward the high target (~300) if AI demand remains robust and the competitive/macro backdrop stays favorable.
- Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 15–60% depending on the scenario and which price target path materializes (using 211–216 as base-case vs. 300 as upside scenario).
Notes on the horizontal target lines
- Low Target: 100 (green) – provides a downside reference, indicating the stop-loss scenario or risk scenario in bearish environments.
- Median Target: 211 (blue) – aligns with the consensus median target; supports a base-case expectation.
- High Target: 300 (red) – represents an optimistic scenario in which AI demand and Nvidia’s platform strength push valuation higher.
If you’d like, I can add a brief sensitivity analysis showing implied returns to each target from the current price, or extend the price-target plotting with additional horizon lines (e.g., 6–9 months) to align with potential earnings timing and product cycles.