Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) Stock Analysis - 2025-11-22
Comprehensive stock analysis for Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) including price targets, technicals, and outlook. Updated 2025-11-22.
Price Action Analysis
The daily chart shows a generally choppy price action over the last three months, with periods of both gains and losses. Recently, there has been a notable increase in trading volume, coinciding with a price surge. The weekly chart, spanning two years, indicates a longer-term uptrend that has been consolidating recently. The high volume observed on the daily chart appears to be a deviation from the norm, potentially signaling a significant event or shift in sentiment.
News & Catalysts
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) recently saw a significant surge in trading volume, with over 1.3 million shares traded by midday on November 21, 2025, a 120% increase from the previous session. This coincided with a modest price increase.
Several factors may be influencing this activity:
- Analyst Optimism: Nomura's stock received a "strong-buy" rating from Zacks Research on October 16, 2025, with other analysts maintaining "buy" ratings.
- Strong Quarterly Performance: The company exceeded expectations for its second-quarter earnings per share ($0.22 vs. $0.17 estimate) and revenue ($3.37 billion vs. $3.02 billion estimate).
- Strategic Growth: Nomura is focused on expanding its interest rate and currency trading units, positioning itself for anticipated market volatility.
- Management Adjustments: Changes have been made within its Shanghai-based joint venture.
However, recent reports also highlight potential headwinds:
- Internal Investigation: Nomura is reportedly investigating its India fixed-income business for potential profit overstatements, leading to the resignation of its head in that division.
- Quarterly Losses in India: The company reported a loss of Rs 19.5 crore for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, a reversal from a profit in the prior year's comparable quarter.
Fondamental analysis
Fundamental Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $7.16 |
| Market Cap | $21.01 Billion |
| Trailing P/E | 9.30 |
| Forward P/E | 12.79 |
| Price to Book | 0.006 |
| Return on Equity | 10.89% |
| Profit Margins | 18.56% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.46% |
Key Takeaways:
- Valuation: Nomura Holdings appears to be trading at a relatively low valuation, with a low Price to Book ratio and a modest trailing P/E.
- Profitability: The company has shown a positive Return on Equity and healthy profit margins.
- Dividends: A notable dividend yield of 5.46% is offered.
- Analyst Estimates: While recent earnings estimates show a slight downward revision for the current quarter, the outlook for the next quarter and year remains cautiously optimistic, with revenue growth expected.
- Analyst Recommendations: The sole analyst covering the stock has a "Hold" recommendation with a price target of $7.58, suggesting a slight upside from the current price.
Market & Sentiment Context
The broader market context may be influenced by expectations of increased market volatility, as Nomura is positioning its trading units to capitalize on this. Investor sentiment appears mixed, with positive reactions to recent earnings and analyst upgrades tempered by concerns over the internal investigation in India. The unusual volume surge suggests a significant event or piece of news is driving increased trading interest.
Investment Outlook
Nomura Holdings presents a mixed investment profile. The company's solid financial performance in the recent quarter, coupled with a high dividend yield and a relatively low valuation, are attractive. However, the ongoing investigation in India introduces an element of uncertainty that investors will be monitoring closely. The price action, with a recent volume surge, indicates increased market attention, but the sustainability of this upward momentum will depend on how the company navigates the challenges in its Indian operations and capitalizes on its strategic initiatives.
Key Buy/Sell Levels
The current stock price is $7.16.
Key Levels:
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Resistance:
- $7.25: This level has been tested recently and represents a near-term resistance. It is currently $0.09 (1.26%) above the current price.
- $7.58: This is the mean analyst price target, indicating a potential upside from the current level.
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Support:
- $7.00: This is a significant psychological and technical support level, which has been tested. It is currently $0.16 (2.24%) below the current price.
- $6.75: This level represents a lower support zone, offering a further cushion. It is currently $0.41 (5.73%) below the current price.
These levels can be interpreted in the context of:
- Resistance: The $7.25 level has acted as resistance in the recent past, and a break above it on increased volume could signal further upside. The analyst target of $7.58 serves as a longer-term upside objective.
- Support: The $7.00 level has shown some historical support. A break below this could indicate a shift in sentiment. The $6.75 level, if tested, could offer a buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term horizon.
Summary & Takeaways
Nomura Holdings (NMR) is experiencing heightened trading activity, driven by a combination of positive quarterly results, favorable analyst ratings, and strategic initiatives. However, an ongoing investigation in India casts a shadow of uncertainty. The stock is trading at a reasonable valuation with an attractive dividend yield. Key resistance levels are seen around $7.25 and the analyst target of $7.58, while support is identified at $7.00 and $6.75. Investors should watch for developments in the Indian investigation and monitor trading volume around the identified key levels for potential entry or exit points.