Netflix, Inc. Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX).
Below is a comprehensive Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) analysis using the data you provided. I’ve also drawn the requested horizontal price-target lines on the chart (Low: 750, Median: 1405, High: 1600) extending 30 days from today.
Drawing execution note:
- Horizontal lines drawn:
- Low Target: 750 (green) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
- Median Target: 1405 (blue) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
- High Target: 1600 (red) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: NFLX remains a globally leading streaming platform with a strong content slate, growing ad-supported monetization, and ongoing international subscriber expansion. The stock trades at a high multiple, but consensus targets imply meaningful upside as streaming monetization and international growth accelerate and scale.
- Price outlook: With a current price around 1,163.31, analysts’ low/median/high targets are 750, 1,405, and 1,600 respectively. The median and mean targets imply potential upside in the 20–40% range over the next 3–12 months, with longer-term upside contingent on sustained revenue growth and margin stability.
- Key risk: Subscriber growth deceleration, competition from other SVOD/AVOD platforms, rising content costs, and macro/FX risks in international markets. Upside relies on subscriber gains, ARPU uplift (ads, price increases), and margin discipline.
Fundamental Analysis
- Valuation and size
- Current price: 1,163.31
- Market cap: 498.27B
- Enterprise value: 498.62B
- Trailing P/E: 49.69
- Forward P/E: 48.92
- Price-to-Book: 19.81
- PEG ratio: not provided
- Profitability and efficiency
- Return on Equity (ROE): 43.55%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 15.05%
- Profit margin: 24.58%
- Gross margin: 48.49%
- Operating margin: 34.07%
- Leverage and liquidity
- Debt-to-equity: 67.87
- Total cash: 8.39B
- Total debt: 16.93B
- Net debt (approx.): 8.54B
- Observations
- NFLX shows healthy profitability and strong margin structure, with meaningful leverage balanced by cash generation in a large-scale streaming business.
- The EV vs. market cap suggests the usual alignment with net debt, given the debt load versus cash on hand.
Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected quarters)
- 2025-06-30
- Total Revenue: 11.08B
- Gross Profit: 5.75B
- Operating Income: 3.77B
- EBITDA: 7.73B
- Net Income: 3.13B
- Diluted EPS: 7.19
- Basic EPS: 7.35
- 2025-03-31
- Total Revenue: 10.54B
- Gross Profit: 5.28B
- Operating Income: 3.40B
- EBITDA: 7.30B
- Net Income: 2.89B
- Diluted EPS: 6.61
- Basic EPS: 6.76
- 2024-12-31
- Total Revenue: 10.25B
- Gross Profit: 4.48B
- Operating Income: 2.27B
- EBITDA: 6.57B
- Net Income: 1.87B
- Diluted EPS: 4.27
- Basic EPS: 4.37
- 2024-09-30
- Total Revenue: 9.83B
- Gross Profit: 4.70B
- Operating Income: 2.91B
- EBITDA: 6.69B
- Net Income: 2.36B
- Diluted EPS: 5.40
- Basic EPS: 5.52
- 2024-06-30
- Total Revenue: 9.56B
- Gross Profit: 4.39B
- Operating Income: 2.68B
- EBITDA: 6.53B
- Net Income: 2.15B
- Diluted EPS: 4.88
- Basic EPS: 4.99
- Takeaway: Revenue growth has been solid quarter-to-quarter, with profitability expanding notably in the latest quarter (2025-06-30) as EBITDA and EPS reach multi-quarter highs. The EPS trend is positively skewed in the most recent quarter, reflecting improving operating leverage and cost management.
EPS Trend
- Current quarter (0q): Diluted EPS 6.94; 7 days ago 6.94; 30 days ago 6.93; 60 days ago 6.93; 90 days ago 6.63
- +1q (next quarter): Diluted EPS 5.42; 7 days ago 5.42; 30 days ago 5.42; 60 days ago 5.42; 90 days ago 5.21
- 0y (year-ago quarter): Diluted EPS 26.30; 7 days ago 26.30; 30 days ago 26.29; 60 days ago 26.27; 90 days ago 25.56
- +1y (next-year period): Diluted EPS 32.39; 7 days ago 32.39; 30 days ago 32.32; 60 days ago 32.26; 90 days ago 30.89
- Interpretation: The current quarter shows a solid EPS print, with a notable prior-year period driven by a higher base. The positive momentum in the most recent quarter supports modest near-term upside, but investors should monitor sustained earnings trajectory and any seasonality.
EPS Revisions Period and revisions (up vs down)
- 0q: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 2; Down Last 30d = 0; Down Last 7d = 1
- +1q: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 2; Down Last 30d = 1; Down Last 7d = 0
- 0y: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 2; Down Last 30d = 1; Down Last 7d = 0
- +1y: Up Last 7d = 0; Up Last 30d = 2; Down Last 30d = 2; Down Last 7d = 2
- Interpretation: The revisions are mixed but show a slight tilt toward upward revisions over the medium term (30-day window) with several periods showing more upgrades than downgrades in the trailing year windows. This aligns with a constructive earnings trajectory but with variability.
Technical Analysis
- Price action and trend context
- Current price: 1,163.31
- 50-day Moving Average (latest): 1,206.50 (below current price on some dates, but as of 2025-10-06 the MA is 1,206.5; NFLX traded beneath this level on recent days, implying near-term softness relative to the MA)
- RSI (14): 38.8 (recently in the low- to mid-30s; approaching oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce if selling pressure eases)
- MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD around -13.9 with a signal of -7.3 (negative momentum, though the spread has shown volatility)
- Key levels
- 50-day MA around 1,206.5 indicates a near-term resistance around that zone; price currently sits below this MA, consistent with a softer near-term bias.
- The recently plotted lines at 750 (green), 1,405 (blue), and 1,600 (red) mark clearly defined long-term support/target zones, but are not immediate technical levels in the near term; they provide a frame for upside/downside expectations.
- Interpretation: Short-term momentum remains mixed-to-bearish (RSI sub-50, MACD negative) while the stock is trading below the 50-day MA. The lines you requested (750/1405/1600) establish a long-range framework for upside/safety thresholds, with 1,405 acting as a central benchmark for fair value versus high-conviction upside near or after catalysts.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current consensus price targets
- Low: 750.00
- Median: 1,405.00
- High: 1,600.00
- Current price: 1,163.31
- Number of analysts: 40
- Target mean: 1,354.69
- Interpretation: The price targets imply meaningful upside from the current level toward the median and high targets, with the majority of coverage suggesting constructive longer-term upside. The mean target (~1,354.69) sits roughly 16% above current price, with the median at ~20% upside.
- Potential catalysts
- New content slate and subscriber growth (domestic and international)
- Monetization improvements (ads tier, tier pricing, and password-sharing controls)
- Operating leverage as content costs optimize and streaming margins stabilize
- Ad market dynamics and potential partnerships
- Geographic expansion and locale-specific pricing strategies
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
- Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: around 1,405 (central tendency from the provided median target)
- Justification: Near-term catalysts and sentiment can drive a re-rating toward the median target as investors digest the latest quarterly results and guidance. The RSI is in the mid- to low-40s range historically around oversold zones, and earnings revisions show a presence of upgrades in the recent period, which can support a short-term rebound through a positive earnings surprise or a favorable guidance update.
- Key drivers: upcoming earnings cycle, content lineup momentum, monetization progress, and potential near-term subscriber growth in international markets.
- Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: 1,600
- Justification: The high target reflects continued monetization gains (ads, higher ARPU), plus international subscriber acceleration and price increases, which could lift profit margins and cash generation. A constructive EBITDA trajectory and improving operating leverage can justify a higher multiple.
- Key drivers: sustained revenue growth, margin stability, successful execution of ad-supported tier, price increases where appropriate, and continued content/IP strength driving subscriber retention and growth.
- Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 2,000 (illustrative bull-case)
- Justification: If NFLX sustains revenue growth in the high single digits to low double digits, maintains or expands margins, and experiences favorable multiple dynamics as streaming matures (with IP monetization and higher ARPU from international growth), a longer horizon target of around 2,000 could be attainable.
- Key drivers: continued global subscriber expansion, improved monetization mix (ads + premium tiers), content IP value realization, potential cost discipline, and a favorable macro environment for consumer discretionary spend on streaming services.
- Risks: competition from new entrants and established players, content cost pressures, advertising market cyclicality, password-sharing enforcement/regulatory scrutiny, FX risk on international growth, and potential slower-than-expected subscriber growth.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Risks
- Subscriber growth deceleration in key regions (US/Canada, APAC)
- Content cost inflation and renewal risks
- Competitive intensity (new formats, bundling, partnerships)
- Ad revenue volatility and dependence on digital ad market cycles
- Regulatory and privacy constraints affecting monetization
- Opportunities
- Expansion of ad-supported tier and monetization mix
- Growth in international markets with localized pricing and content
- Strong IP slate and increasing content-related licensing/merchandising
- Potential operating leverage from continued scale and efficiency
- Potential strategic partnerships or bundle opportunities
Investment Recommendation
- View: Hold to moderately optimistic stance; near-term volatility may persist given the high valuation and macro uncertainties, but the long-run upside looks supported by monetization and international growth.
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential: Approximately 15–30% upside from current levels under a baseline plan; greater upside (toward 20–40%+) if monetization accelerates and international growth delivers stronger ARPU uplift and subscriber growth.
- Rationale: Positive earnings trajectory and multiple expansion potential exist, but the near-term path includes macro and competitive risks that justify a cautious stance.
Table: Key Valuation & Metrics
- Values shown are those you provided.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 1,163.31 | NFLX |
| Market Cap | 498.27B | - |
| Enterprise Value | 498.62B | - |
| Trailing P/E | 49.69 | - |
| Forward P/E | 48.92 | - |
| Price-to-Book | 19.81 | - |
| ROE | 43.55% | - |
| ROA | 15.05% | - |
| Profit Margin | 24.58% | - |
| Gross Margin | 48.49% | - |
| Operating Margin | 34.07% | - |
| Debt-to-Equity | 67.87 | - |
| Total Cash | 8.39B | - |
| Total Debt | 16.93B | - |
| Net Debt | ~8.54B | Debt − Cash |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | - |
| Beta | 1.593 | - |
Table: Earnings Snapshot (Quarters)
| Quarter | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | EBITDA | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 11.08B | 5.75B | 3.77B | 7.73B | 3.13B | 7.19 | 7.35 |
| 2025-03-31 | 10.54B | 5.28B | 3.40B | 7.30B | 2.89B | 6.61 | 6.76 |
| 2024-12-31 | 10.25B | 4.48B | 2.27B | 6.57B | 1.87B | 4.27 | 4.37 |
| 2024-09-30 | 9.83B | 4.70B | 2.91B | 6.69B | 2.36B | 5.40 | 5.52 |
| 2024-06-30 | 9.56B | 4.39B | 2.68B | 6.53B | 2.15B | 4.88 | 4.99 |
Table: EPS Trend (selected figures)
| Period | Diluted EPS (current) | 7d ago | 30d ago | 60d ago | 90d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 6.94 | 6.94 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.63 |
| +1q | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.21 |
| 0y | 26.30 | 26.30 | 26.29 | 26.27 | 25.56 |
| +1y | 32.39 | 32.39 | 32.32 | 32.26 | 30.89 |
Table: EPS Revisions (counts)
| Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| +1q | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 0y | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| +1y | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Table: Technical Indicators (latest)
| Indicator | Latest Value |
|---|---|
| 50-day MA | 1,206.5 |
| RSI (14) | 38.8 |
| MACD (12,26,9) | MACD -13.9; Signal -7.3 |
Table: Analyst Targets
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Target Low | 750.0 |
| Target Median | 1,405.0 |
| Current Price | 1,163.31 |
| Number of Analysts | 40 |
| Target High | 1,600.0 |
| Target Mean | 1,354.69 |
Price Target Scenarios (Summary)
- Short-Term (3 months): Target around 1,405; rationale: median target aligns with near-term catalysts and constructive revisions; key drivers: earnings updates, content slate, and monetization progress.
- Mid-Term (12 months): Target around 1,600; rationale: upside from monetization mix, international growth, and margin expansion; key drivers: ads revenue, ARPU uplift, continued content/IP monetization.
- Long-Term (3+ years): Target around 2,000 (illustrative bull-case); rationale: sustained revenue growth, margin stability, and potential multiple expansion with a mature streaming market; key drivers: global expansion, pricing power, and IP monetization.
- Note: The above targets align with the provided low/median/high targets (750/1405/1600) for the typical analyst distribution, with the long-term target representing a bullish scenario beyond the three explicit price points.
References to Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions
- Earnings Summary: The latest quarter (2025-06-30) shows revenue of 11.08B, gross profit of 5.75B, operating income of 3.77B, EBITDA of 7.73B, net income of 3.13B, and diluted EPS of 7.19. The quarter-to-quarter growth continued from 2025-03-31 (revenue 10.54B; diluted EPS 6.61) and earlier quarters (2024-12-31, 2024-09-30, 2024-06-30) show a solid upward trend in profitability and margins.
- EPS Trends: The current 0q diluted EPS is 6.94, with prior-quarters showing 5.42 (+1q). Year-over-year periods show higher EPS levels (0y: 26.30; +1y: 32.39) on the cited periods, indicating that the base period was stronger, and the more recent quarters show improving efficiency and margin expansion.
- EPS Revisions: The revision data indicates a mix of upgrades and downgrades across the observed windows, with more upward revisions in the 30-day window on several periods, suggesting improving sentiment in the nearer term, while longer windows show balanced revisions.
Key Takeaways
- Valuation remains rich, but the long-run opportunities in monetization and international growth support potential upside.
- Near-term momentum appears mixed based on technicals (RSI around 38.8, price below the 50-day MA), but earnings momentum and revisions indicate potential upside catalysts.
- The horizontal lines at 750/1405/1600 provide a clear framework: 750 is not expected to be tested imminently, 1405 serves as a central target in the near to mid-term, and 1600 marks a higher hurdle for multi-quarter upside.
If you’d like, I can tailor the price target scenarios to different risk tolerances (conservative, base, aggressive) or add a probabilistic range around the three target levels using the distribution of analyst opinions and recent revision activity.