Netflix, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX).

Below is a comprehensive Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) analysis with the requested price-target drawing, data-driven fundamentals, and a structured price-target framework.

Price target lines drawn

  • Low Target: 750.00
  • Median Target: 1405.00
  • High Target: 1600.00

Settings used

  • Extent: 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-10) to 2025-11-09
  • Colors:
    • Low Target (750): #2ECC71 (green)
    • Median Target (1405): #F1C40F (amber/orange)
    • High Target (1600): #E74C3C (red)
  • Ticker: NFLX

Note: The lines were drawn successfully and extend to the right edge of the chart as requested.

Executive Summary

  • NFLX trades at 1231.07 with a consensus that implies meaningful upside to the mid-to-high 1,000s over the next 12–24 months.
  • The stock sits in a high-valuation tier (trailing P/E ~52x, forward P/E ~52x) underpinned by strong profitability metrics and cash generation, but exposed to streaming competition, content costs, and subscriber-growth dynamics.
  • The current price sits above the 50-day moving average and around neutral RSI territory with MACD showing some recent momentum shifts; earnings momentum and EPS revisions have shown improvement in the latest reported periods, supporting a constructive longer-term view if growth persists.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and capitalization

    • Current price: 1231.07
    • Market cap: $523.1B
    • Enterprise value: $524.5B
    • Trailing P/E: 52.52
    • Forward P/E: 51.77
    • PEG ratio: not provided
    • Price-to-book: 20.96
    • Return on equity (ROE): 43.55%
    • Return on assets (ROA): 15.05%
    • Profit margins: 24.58%
    • Gross margins: 48.49%
    • Operating margins: 34.07%
    • Debt-to-equity: 67.87%
    • Cash: $8.39B
    • Debt: $16.93B
    • Dividend yield: None
    • Beta: 1.59

  • Financial health indicators

    • The balance sheet shows modest net leverage (total debt vs cash) with a solid operating margin foundation and robust profitability. Mildly elevated debt-to-equity reflects leverage used to finance growth opportunities and content investments.

  • Key takeaways

    • Highly profitable business with strong cash generation and favorable margins.
    • Valuation is premium, but the growth runway (global subscriber expansion, ARPU growth, and ad-supported monetization) can justify premium multiples if execution stays on track.
    • Balance sheet is capable of supporting ongoing content investments and potential strategic initiatives.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected quarters)

  • 2025-06-30

    • Normalized EBITDA: 7.726B
    • Net income from continuing operation: 3.125B
    • EBITDA: 7.726B
    • EBIT: 3.814B
    • Operating income: 3.774B
    • Diluted EPS: 7.19
    • Basic EPS: 7.35
    • Revenue: 11.079B

  • 2025-03-31

    • Diluted EPS: 6.61
    • Basic EPS: 6.76
    • Revenue: 10.542B

  • 2024-12-31

    • Diluted EPS: 4.27
    • Basic EPS: 4.37
    • Revenue: 10.254B

  • 2024-09-30

    • Diluted EPS: 5.40
    • Basic EPS: 5.52
    • Revenue: 9.825B

  • 2024-06-30

    • Diluted EPS: 4.88
    • Basic EPS: 4.99
    • Revenue: 9.559B

EPS Trend

  • Current period (0q): 6.94
  • 1 quarter ago (+1q): 5.43
  • 30 days ago: 6.93
  • 60 days ago: 6.93
  • 90 days ago: 6.62
  • 0y (year-ago period): 26.41
  • 1y (year-ago trailing): 32.47

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: Up Last 7 days = 1, Up Last 30 days = 2, Down Last 30 days = 0, Down Last 7 days = 1
  • +1q: Up Last 7 days = 1, Up Last 30 days = 2, Down Last 30 days = 1, Down Last 7 days = 0
  • 0y: Up Last 7 days = 1, Up Last 30 days = 2, Down Last 30 days = 1, Down Last 7 days = 0
  • +1y: Up Last 7 days = 0, Up Last 30 days = 2, Down Last 30 days = 2, Down Last 7 days = 2

Interpretation

  • Near-term revisions show more upgrades than downgrades in the last 30 days and last quarter, implying improving sentiment. The +1y period shows more downgrades than upgrades, suggesting some longer-term uncertainty or shifting forecasts as the growth path evolves.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

  • 50-Day Moving Average (MA)

    • Most recent MA values around 1207–1233; latest close on 2025-10-09 was 1231.1 with MA around 1208.6.
    • Price is currently above the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term bullish momentum relative to the intermediate trend.

  • RSI (14)

    • Latest RSI: 51.2 (neutral)
    • Readings in the 30s–60s range imply a balanced momentum with room for expansion if catalysts emerge.

  • MACD (12,26,9)

    • Latest MACD: -5.7; Signal: -8.0
    • MACD is negative and below the signal line as of 2025-10-09, indicating recent momentum weakness, though prior months showed a swing from positive to negative. Monitor for a cross back above zero to confirm a bullish shift.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 1231.07

  • Number of analysts: 42

  • Target High: 1600.00

  • Target Low: 750.00

  • Target Median: 1405.00

  • Target Mean: 1358.61

  • Interpretation

    • The consensus ranges from a bear case (750) to a bullish ceiling (1600), with a median target of 1405 and a mean around 1358.61. The current price sits roughly in the middle of these targets and below the median/high cases, implying meaningful upside potential if the growth and earnings trajectory continues.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 1405 (median); Upside vs. current ~14%
    • Rationale:
      • Positive near-term earnings momentum remains a key driver; EPS revisions have shown upgrades in the near term.
      • Recent trending improvement in EPS (current quarter EPS around 6.9–7.2) supports a constructive sentiment path.
      • The mean target (1358) and high (1600) imply a potential near-term breakout if quarterly results beat expectations and international growth remains robust.
    • Key drivers:
      • Sustained revenue growth and improving operating margins
      • Continued monetization of advertising (if material) and tiering strategy
      • Ongoing subscriber growth, particularly in international markets
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 1550 (mid-point of high and mean targets) to 1600 (high target)
    • Upside vs. current ~26–30%
    • Rationale:
      • If NFLX sustains earnings momentum and further improves profitability (higher EBITDA/EBIT margins), multiple expansion could occur given its premium growth profile.
      • EPS revisions trend toward upgrades could widen conviction among analysts; the 42-analyst base provides a broad consensus framework to ride longer-term earnings trajectories.
    • Key drivers:
      • Subscriber growth tempo and international expansion
      • ARPU leverage and ad-supported monetization success
      • Content pipeline strength and cost discipline
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 1700–1900 (longer-horizon bull case)
    • Upside vs. current ~38–55%
    • Rationale:
      • Long-run growth would depend on sustained subscriber expansion, pricing power, and healthy content costs management; a successful international push and continued monetization could justify multiple expansion.
    • Key drivers:
      • Global subscriber growth, particularly in underpenetrated regions
      • Structural improvements in ARPU and monetization (ads, account sharing controls, tiering)
      • Content strategy efficiency and continued streaming ecosystem leadership
    • Note: The high target in the data set is 1600; here, the long-horizon bull case uses a qualitative lens beyond the listed high target, acknowledging potential upside if growth accelerates beyond current expectations.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks

    • Intensified competition from other streaming platforms and potential price wars
    • Content cost inflation and risk of content fatigue or fragmentation
    • Subscriber growth deceleration in mature markets; reliance on international expansion
    • Macro sensitivity to discretionary spend and advertising cycles (where applicable)

  • Opportunities

    • Successful expansion of ad-supported tier and ad revenue monetization
    • Pricing power and ARPU expansion from global markets
    • Efficiency gains in content production and licensing
    • Potential strategic initiatives (tiering, partnerships, or selective content investments) that could boost growth and margins

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Buy (with a 12–24 month horizon)
    • Rationale: The stock sits at a meaningful upside relative to the median target and is supported by improving earnings momentum, upgrades in EPS revisions, and a large, diverse analyst base. The 3–6 month and 12–24 month price targets imply constructive upside if execution continues and the streaming market remains robust.
    • Risk-adjusted view: The stock trades at a premium multiple, so upside is contingent on continued growth in subscriber base, monetization, and stable content costs. Investors should be comfortable with higher-than-average valuation and the volatility inherent in a highly competitive streaming environment.
    • Potential return: Base-case upside in the low-to-mid teens over 12–24 months, with higher-end scenarios approaching 20–30% if the bull-case drivers materialize.

Comprehensive data summary (selected tables)

  • Market and valuation snapshot | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current price | 1231.07 | | Market cap | 523,114,053,632 | | Enterprise value | 524,510,265,344 | | Trailing P/E | 52.52x | | Forward P/E | 51.77x | | Price to book | 20.96x | | ROE | 43.55% | | ROA | 15.05% | | Profit margin | 24.58% | | Gross margin | 48.49% | | Operating margin | 34.07% | | Debt to equity | 67.87% | | Total cash | 8,390,519,808 | | Total debt | 16,933,966,848 | | Dividend yield | N/A | | Beta | 1.59 |

  • Earnings snapshot (selected periods) | Period | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS | Diluted EPS (YoY) | Revenue (approx) | EBITDA (approx) | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-06-30 | 7.19 | 7.35 | up QoQ to 7.19 | ~11.08B | 7.726B | | 2025-03-31 | 6.61 | 6.76 | — | ~10.54B | — | | 2024-12-31 | 4.27 | 4.37 | — | ~10.26B | — | | 2024-09-30 | 5.40 | 5.52 | — | ~9.83B | — | | 2024-06-30 | 4.88 | 4.99 | — | ~9.56B | — |

  • EPS trend (selected) | Period | Current | 7daysAgo | 30daysAgo | 60daysAgo | 90daysAgo | 0y | +1y | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | EPS (approx) | 6.94 | 6.94 | 6.93 | 6.93 | 6.62 | 26.41 | 32.47 |

  • EPS revisions (selected) | Period | Up (last 7d) | Up (last 30d) | Down (last 30d) | Down (last 7d) | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | | +1q | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | 0y | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | +1y | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |

  • Technical indicators (selected) | Indicator | Most recent value | Interpretation | |---|---:|---| | 50-day MA | ~1208 | Price above MA indicates near-term bullish bias; MA has been in the 1207–1233 range recently | | RSI (14) | ~51.2 | Neutral; no overbought/oversold extreme signaling | | MACD (12,26,9) | MACD ~ -5.7; Signal ~ -8.0 | Recent negative momentum; needs a bullish cross to confirm upside momentum |

Key catalysts and drivers to watch

  • Subscriber growth trajectory in international markets
  • Monetization of ads and potential ARPU expansion
  • Content slate performance and cost discipline
  • Any changes to pricing or plan structures
  • Global macro environment impacting discretionary streaming spend

Technical note on the price-target drawing

  • Low Target (750), Median Target (1405), High Target (1600) lines plotted on 2025-10-10 (today) extending to 2025-11-09 (30 days forward), with:
    • Low line color: Green (#2ECC71)
    • Median line color: Amber/Orange (#F1C40F)
    • High line color: Red (#E74C3C)

Important caveats

  • Valuation remains premium; upside is contingent on sustained growth in subscriber base, monetization, and content-cost management.
  • The streaming landscape remains dynamic with competitive pressure and potential regulatory/content-cost headwinds.
  • The price targets reflect consensus estimates; individual investment outcomes will depend on company execution and market sentiment.

If you’d like, I can extend the price-target analysis with sensitivity tables (e.g., upside scenarios under different EPS growth rates, margin changes, or subscriber growth assumptions) or add a more detailed scenario comparison (base/bull/bear) with explicit target ranges.

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