NextEra Energy, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE).

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE), incorporating the three price-target lines drawn on the chart and a multi-timeframe investment thesis.

Chart annotations (price-level lines drawn)

  • Low Target: $52.00
    • Color: Green
    • Extends from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target: $84.00
    • Color: Blue
    • Extends from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • High Target: $103.00
    • Color: Red
    • Extends from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

Note: The three lines were drawn using the current date 2025-10-07 and extend 30 days into the future, ending 2025-11-06. Ticker: NEE.

Executive Summary

  • Price context: NEE trades around 82.11 with a current price near the analyst-median target (84) and well below the high target (103). The stock has a favorable dividend yield (2.83%) and a strong operating margin backdrop, but faces a heavy debt load.
  • Investment stance: Neutral-to-bullish on a 3–12 month horizon, with upside potential toward the median/high target as earnings momentum and EPS revisions show positive signals, supported by solid profitability and renewables growth, but tempered by leverage risk and interest-rate sensitivity.
  • Key catalysts: Continued growth in renewable generation and grid modernization, solid regulated utility cash flows, and a constructive if modest earnings revision cycle. A potential hurdle is the high debt level and sensitivity to rising rates.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and scale
    • Current price: 82.11
    • Market cap: $169.09B
    • Enterprise value: $266.46B
    • Trailing P/E: 28.61
    • Forward P/E: 22.31
    • Price-to-Book: 3.33
    • Beta: 0.652 (lower-beta profile)
  • Profitability and margins
    • Net profit margin: 22.85%
    • Gross margin: 61.97%
    • Operating margin: 33.85%
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 7.59%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 2.71%
  • Capital structure and liquidity
    • Debt-to-equity: 152.94 (very high leverage)
    • Total cash: ~$1.73B
    • Total debt: ~$93.19B
    • Dividend yield: 2.83% (five-year avg 2.41%)
  • Observations
    • The forward P/E of 22.31 vs. trailing P/E of 28.61 indicates a modestly improving earnings outlook relative to current earnings.
    • Leverage remains a material consideration. The cash balance is small relative to the debt burden, which could amplify sensitivity to rising interest rates or regulatory shifts.
    • Margins are healthy in the sector context, with strong gross and operating margins underpinning cash generation.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent earnings summary (selected quarters)
    • 2025-06-30: Revenue $6.70B; Net income (continuing ops) $2.028B; Diluted EPS $0.98; Normalized EBITDA $4.065B; EBITDA $4.30B; Operating income $1.893B
    • 2025-03-31: Revenue $6.248B; Net income $0.833B; Diluted EPS $0.40; Normalized EBITDA $2.889B
    • 2024-12-31: Revenue $5.385B; Net income $1.203B; Diluted EPS $0.58; Normalized EBITDA $1.826B
    • 2024-09-30: Revenue $7.567B; Net income $1.852B; Diluted EPS $0.898; Normalized EBITDA $4.743B
    • 2024-06-30: Revenue $6.069B; Net income $1.622B; Diluted EPS $0.789; Normalized EBITDA $3.426B
  • EPS trends
    • 0q (recent): current 0q EPS ~0.976; 7d/30d ago ~0.95–0.98 range
    • +1q: ~0.69
    • 0y (trailing year): ~3.68 – ~3.98 (annualized trend)
  • EPS revisions
    • 0q cycle: UpLast7days = 1, UpLast30days = 1; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7days = 0
    • +1q cycle: UpLast7days = 0; UpLast30days = 0; DownLast30days = 1; DownLast7days = 1
    • 0y cycle: UpLast7days = 2; UpLast30days = 5; DownLast30days = 1; DownLast7days = 0
    • +1y cycle: UpLast7days = 0; UpLast30days = 0; DownLast30days = 1; DownLast7days = 1
  • Earnings quality notes
    • Normalized EBITDA saw substantial volatility across quarters, with a notable peak around 2024-09-30 and a strong showing again in 2025-06-30, supporting earnings power from renewable capacity additions and transmission/grid investments.
    • Revenue base remains sizable and trending higher in 2025 compared with earlier periods, underscoring robust cash flow potential.
    • The EPS trend shows a strong trailing year (0y) level around 3.68–3.98, suggesting ongoing profitability that could support multiple expansion if growth remains in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and moving averages
    • Current price ~82.11 is well above the 50-day MA, which sits around 72.9 as of 2025-10-06 (last 60 days of data show MA ~72.9).
    • This indicates recent upside momentum and a positive near-term bias, though RSI and momentum indicators provide context below.
  • Momentum and indicators
    • RSI (14) near last observation: ~91.6 (very overbought), suggesting a potential for short-term consolidation or pullback before continuing higher.
    • MACD (12,26,9): MACD ~2.0 with Signal ~1.0 (bullish), reinforcing positive near-term momentum but watch for shifts if RSI rebalances.
  • Current support/resistance context
    • With a strong 50-day MA well below current price, near-term support lies in 70s area (recent MA levels around 72–73) while resistance approaches the high-70s to low-80s region and higher around 90–95 if momentum persists. The analyst targets above reflect potential upside from here.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst coverage and targets
    • Number of analysts: 17
    • Target Low / Median / High: 52.00 / 84.00 / 103.00
    • Current price: 82.11
    • Target Mean: 83.59
  • Implications
    • The median target (~84) sits just above the current price, signaling modest upside potential in the near term.
    • The high target (103) suggests a more favorable scenario if earnings revisions turn more constructive and multiple expansion occurs.
    • The spread between low and high targets indicates a wide range of expectations, typical for a large cap with renewable and utility exposures.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 84.00
    • Justification: The street median target sits at 84, with 17 analysts contributing to a consensus that is modestly above today’s price. Near-term catalysts include favorable EPS momentum signals (0q trend) and a sustained, high-margin business model supported by renewables and grid investments. Price could gravitate toward the median target as near-term earnings trends stabilize.
    • Key drivers: Near-term EPS performance, momentum signals (MACD-positive, price above 50-day MA), dividend yield as an income tailwind.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 92.00
    • Justification: If earnings revisions shift more positively (especially given the 0y cycle where 2 upgrades vs 5 upgrades in the last year are observed, and some 0q upgrades), and if revenue and normalized EBITDA trend continues to support earnings growth, the stock could re-rate toward the upper end of the current range. The presence of a high target (103) provides an upside path toward the high end if catalysts play out and multiple expansion occurs.
    • Key drivers: Sustained earnings growth, improved revisions sentiment, continued dividend support, and potential multiple expansion from a forward P/E in the low- to mid-20s.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 110–115
    • Justification: Over a multi-year horizon, if NextEra continues to scale renewable capacity, modernize the grid, and via regulated returns grow earnings power while maintaining strong margins, a higher multiple could be justified relative to today’s multiple. The high-end target of 103 implies upside potential, and with a durable business model and ongoing capital investments, a trajectory toward 110–115 could be realized in a favorable macro environment and continued demand for clean energy.
    • Key drivers: Electrification and decarbonization tailwinds, growth in renewables capacity, grid modernization and storage investments, stable dividend growth, and potential multiple expansion with high-quality earnings visibility. Risks include higher borrowing costs and regulatory/rate-case risks that could temper multiple expansion.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Elevated leverage (Debt/Equity ~153) and large absolute debt burden make sensitivity to rising interest rates and regulatory shifts higher.
    • Regulatory and rate-case outcomes in a regulated utility environment can influence allowed returns.
    • Energy price and commodity volatility, supply chain constraints, and execution risk on large sustainable energy projects.
  • Opportunities
    • Growth in renewables (wind/solar) and grid modernization initiatives offer earnings upside and potential for higher asset base growth.
    • Stable dividend profile supports income-oriented investor demand.
    • Potential for multiple expansion if earnings revisions stabilize and revenue growth translates into sustained higher profitability.

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold with a balanced risk/reward profile.
  • Rationale: The stock trades near the median analyst target, with a mix of robust profitability metrics and a very high debt load that warrants caution. The near-term upside could be modest (to the mid-80s region), with more meaningful upside possible if earnings revisions trend positively and the renewables/grid investment cycle remains strong.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 6–15% upside in a favorable scenario (toward the 90s–100s region), with potential downside risk toward the lower end of the target spectrum if leverage concerns and rate risk materialize.

Key Financial & Valuation Tables (selected data)

  • Valuation & Leverage | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current Price | 82.11 | | Market Cap | $169.09B | | Enterprise Value | $266.46B | | Trailing P/E | 28.61 | | Forward P/E | 22.31 | | Price to Book | 3.33 | | ROE | 7.59% | | ROA | 2.71% | | Net Margin | 22.85% | | Gross Margin | 61.97% | | Operating Margin | 33.85% | | Debt to Equity | 152.94x | | Total Cash | ~$1.73B | | Total Debt | ~$93.19B | | Dividend Yield | 2.83% | | 5-yr Avg Dividend Yield | 2.41% | | Beta | 0.652 |

  • Analyst Targets (Snapshot) | Item | Value | |---|---| | Target Low | 52.00 | | Target Median | 84.00 | | Current Price | 82.11 | | Target High | 103.00 | | Target Mean | 83.59 | | Analysts Covering | 17 |

  • Earnings Summary (Selected Quarters) | Quarter (Period) | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Normalized EBITDA | EBITDA | Operating Income | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-06-30 | 6.70B | 2.028B | 0.98 | 4.065B | 4.30B | 1.893B | | 2025-03-31 | 6.25B | 0.833B | 0.40 | 2.889B | | 0.871B | | 2024-12-31 | 5.39B | 1.203B | 0.58 | 1.826B | | 0.907B | | 2024-09-30 | 7.57B | 1.852B | 0.898 | 4.743B | | 2.613B | | 2024-06-30 | 6.07B | 1.622B | 0.789 | 3.426B | | 1.743B |

  • EPS Trend (Selected) | Period | Current | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 0.976 | 0.950 | 0.950 | 0.982 | 0.991 | | +1q | 0.690 | 0.716 | 0.716 | 0.670 | 0.711 | | 0y | 3.684 | 3.684 | 3.680 | 3.674 | 3.669 | | +1y | 3.948 | 3.949 | 3.948 | 3.978 | 3.983 |

  • EPS Revisions (Selected) | Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | +1q | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | 0y | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | | +1y | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |

  • Technical Indicators (Last 60 Days) | Indicator | Latest Value (as of 2025-10-06) | |---|---:| | 50-day MA | 72.9 | | RSI (14) | 91.6 | | MACD | 2.0 | | MACD Signal | 1.0 |

  • 50-day MA Context

    • The price is well above the 50-day MA, implying positive near-term momentum. RSI near 91.6 indicates overbought conditions, suggesting potential near-term consolidation.

Notes on interpretation

  • The price targets (52/84/103) provide a broad framework for downside/upside risk. The current price sits near the median target, supporting a neutral-to-mildly constructive stance in the near term.
  • EPS momentum and revisions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades by period, with relatively more upgrades over longer horizons (0y) but some near-term downgrades in the +1q cycle. This nuance supports a cautious approach to near-term upside while maintaining longer-term upside potential if earnings revisions stabilize positively.
  • The balance sheet is a material consideration: high debt relative to cash could constrain upside if interest costs rise or if regulatory returns come under pressure. Yet the business model—ruled by durable cash flows from regulated activities and a growing renewables footprint—offers a solid foundation for further growth and potential multiple expansion.

Bottom line

  • Near-term price action could hover near the 84 area (median target) with the possibility of a modest move toward 90–95 if earnings revisions continue to tilt positively and macro conditions support equity risk appetite.
  • A longer runway toward 110–115 is plausible in a favorable combination of earnings growth, revenue expansion, continued renewables deployment, and multiple expansion, but is contingent on favorable financing conditions and regulatory outcomes given the high leverage.
  • Overall stance: Hold with selective exposure to any near-term catalysts (earnings reports, regulatory decisions, sector momentum) and attention to the debt/financing environment.

If you’d like, I can add a scenario-based chart overlay showing potential paths to the 84, 92, and 110 targets based on implied earnings growth and P/E expansion assumptions, or tailor the price target ranges to specific time horizons or risk tolerances.

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