NextEra Energy, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE).

Below is a comprehensive analysis for NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) using the data you provided. I’ve also drawn horizontal price target lines on the chart for Low, Median, and High targets and extended them 30 days into the future as requested.

Price Target Lines Drawn

  • Low Target: 52.00 (color: green)
  • Median Target: 84.00 (color: blue)
  • High Target: 103.00 (color: orange)
  • Extent: Each line extends from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (roughly 30 days into the future)
  • Ticker: NEE

Notes on the lines: The horizontal lines reflect the specified price targets (52/84/103) and were plotted today (2025-10-10) with the right edge extended to 2025-11-09 to visualize near-term channel potential on the chart.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: NEE remains a high-quality, regulated utility/clean-energy conglomerate with strong cash flows, resilient earnings, and a appealing dividend. The stock currently trades around the median analyst target with a modest upside potential to the 12-month high. The near-term setup is mixed given a recent rise in price relative to the 50-day moving average and a stretched RSI, but earnings quality and forward-leaning fundamentals support a constructive longer-term view.
  • Key takeaway: The stock trades at a forward PE of ~22.7 with solid margins and a robust dividend, but debt levels are material. The current price sits near the median price target (84) with upside potential to the high target (103) if earnings momentum and regulatory/regulatory-driven earnings growth persist.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Current price: 83.71
    • Market cap: 172.383B
    • Enterprise value: 274.659B
    • Trailing P/E: 29.17
    • Forward P/E: 22.75
    • Price-to-Book: 3.39
    • PEG ratio: not provided
  • Profitability and efficiency
    • Profit margin: 22.85%
    • Gross margin: 61.97%
    • Operating margin: 33.85%
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 7.59%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 2.71%
  • Leverage and liquidity
    • Debt to equity: 152.94 (high, typical for regulated utilities with heavy asset bases)
    • Total cash: 1.728B
    • Total debt: 93.189B
  • Income and cash flow strength
    • Dividend yield: 2.70% (vs. 5-year avg 2.41%)
    • Beta: 0.652 (lower beta, typical for utility exposure)
  • Implications: The forward multiple is reasonable for a regulated utility with growth in low-carbon/clean energy assets, but the heavy debt load requires ongoing coverage from steady regulated earnings and rate-case progress. The dividend is attractive and relatively stable, supporting a defense posture in a risk-off environment.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 83.71
  • Analysts: 18
  • Target High / Low / Median / Mean
    • High: 103.00
    • Low: 52.00
    • Median: 84.00
    • Mean: 84.50
  • Interpretation: The majority of analysts see mid-to-upper-single-digit upside from current levels, with a broader distribution suggesting upside risk up to the 100+ region, contingent on earnings delivery and macro/regulatory drivers. The mean is modestly above the median, indicating some more optimistic higher targets among a subset of analysts.

Recent Earnings Summary (GAAP / Adjusted Context Provided) Key figures from the Earnings data (selected highlights):

  • Normalized EBITDA: 4.065B (2025-06-30) vs. 2.889B (2025-03-31) vs. 1.826B (2024-12-31) — indicates substantial quarter-over-quarter improvement in normalized EBITDA.
  • EBITDA: 4.30B (latest) vs. 2.893B (prior) — strong quarterly improvement.
  • Net Income From Continuing Operations: 2.028B (2025-06-30) vs. 0.833B (2025-03-31) vs. 1.203B (2024-12-31) — shows meaningful quarterly strength in continuing operations.
  • Diluted EPS: 0.98 (2025-06-30) vs. 0.40 (2025-03-31) — reflects a strong quarterly EPS print.
  • Basic EPS: 0.99 (2025-06-30) vs. 0.404638 (2025-03-31) — aligns with the diluted number above.
  • Depreciation & amortization (Rec): 1.857B (2025-06-30)
  • Net income and EPS are driven by a mix of EBITDA strength, depreciation/amortization, and tax rate dynamics (including a tax rate for calc around 0.21 for the latest period).
  • Net revenue / Operating income: Revenue at ~6.70B (Total Revenue; 2024-2025 runs) with operating income around 1.893B most recently.

EPS Trend (Trailing and Forward)

  • Periods: 0q, +1q, 0y, +1y
  • Current EPS (diluted): 0.97054
  • 7 days ago: 0.94967
  • 30 days ago: 0.94967
  • 60 days ago: 0.98486
  • 90 days ago: 0.99597
  • 0q period EPS (diluted): 0.97054
  • 1q forward-looking EPS (diluted): 0.6921
  • 0y (trailing 12 months) diluted EPS: 3.68311
  • 1y forward diluted EPS: 3.94908
  • Interpretation: Near-term EPS prints around 0.69 for the next quarter imply some volatility; however, trailing/forward trend indicates sustainable earnings above $3.90 in the trailing year and a solid longer-term trajectory.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: Up last 7 days (1), Up last 30 days (1), Down last 30 days (0), Down last 7 days (0)
  • +1q: Up last 7 days (0), Up last 30 days (0), Down last 30 days (1), Down last 7 days (1)
  • 0y: Up last 7 days (2), Up last 30 days (5), Down last 30 days (1), Down last 7 days (0)
  • +1y: Up last 7 days (0), Up last 30 days (0), Down last 30 days (1), Down last 7 days (1)
  • Interpretation: Shorter-term revisions show modest upward momentum in 0q, while revisions for the next year have some downward pressure. The longer-term revisions (0y) show more upward revisions (2 and 5 respectively), suggesting drift higher in longer horizon earnings expectations despite near-term caution.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

  • 50-Day Moving Average (latest)
    • Last reported: 73.7 (as of 2025-10-09)
    • Current price: 83.7 (price closes above the 50-day MA by about 10 points)
    • Interpretation: Positive near-term momentum with the price trading well above the 50-day MA.
  • RSI (14) – Latest: 90.0 (2025-10-09)
    • Interpretation: Readings near 90 indicate overbought conditions; potential risk of a near-term pullback or consolidation.
  • MACD (12,26,9) – Latest: MACD 2.9; Signal 1.8
    • Interpretation: Bullish MACD crossover with positive momentum, supporting a cautious upside tilt in the near term, unless RSI-driven consolidation occurs.

Technical indicators suggest a bullish setup on a price trend basis, but the current RSI signals overbought conditions that could lead to a near-term pause or pullback, especially if macro conditions are soft or if rate scenarios shift.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets (Detail)

  • Current price: 83.71
  • Coverage: 18 analysts
  • Targets (High/Low/Median/Mean)
    • High: 103.0
    • Low: 52.0
    • Median: 84.0
    • Mean: 84.5
  • Implications: With a median target at 84.0 and a mean near 84.5, the implied upside to the median is modest (~0.3%), while upside to the high target (~23.5%) is meaningful if earnings momentum and regulatory tailwinds align.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: around 84.0–85.0 (close to the median 84.0, with the mean 84.5)
  • Justification: Near-term catalysts would be incremental earnings performance, steady regulated rate commentary, and any favorable revisions in 0q data. The current price sits essentially at the median target with potential for a small uptick if sentiment remains constructive.
  • Key drivers: Stable regulated cash flows, dividend backdrop, and any upside revision momentum.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 88–95 range; potential to push toward the high 100s on a favorable earnings trajectory
  • Justification: Forward P/E of ~22.7 supports a moderate multiple, and earnings acceleration from capex in clean energy and regulated growth could push valuations higher. The high target of 103 provides a plausible upside scenario if earnings momentum and rate-case outcomes are favorable.
  • Key drivers: Regulatory rate-case progress, delivery of earnings growth (EBITDA/Net Income), ongoing capital deployment in renewables and grid modernization, and a stable dividend policy.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: around 100–103 (the high target) or possibly higher if the business sustains above-mean earnings growth and the macro environment remains supportive
  • Justification: If NEE continues to compound free cash flow growth from regulated assets and favorable capital allocation (renewables, grid investments), multiple expansion could push price into the low-to-mid 100s over a multi-year horizon.
  • Key drivers: Structural growth in regulated earnings, tariff/rate-case upside, continued efficiency gains, and durable dividend growth.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Balance sheet intensity: Very high debt-to-equity (~153) could constrain flexibility if interest rates rise or if regulatory commissions tighten allowed returns.
    • Regulatory risk: Rate-case outcomes, capital expenditure approvals, and policy shifts toward restructuring or incentives for renewables could materially affect earnings.
    • Valuation risk: RSI at elevated levels indicates potential near-term pullback; a significant correction could short-circuit momentum.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Regulated earnings stability: The business model is anchored by regulated utilities with predictable cash flows, supporting dividend resilience.
    • Growth in renewables/grid investments: Continued capital allocation to clean energy and grid modernization provides potential for earnings expansion and cash-flow visibility.
    • Dividend yield: At 2.7%, with a favorable payout history, there is an income component that can support total returns in a diversified portfolio.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: HOLD with a constructive bias
    • Time horizon: 12–24 months
    • Rationale: The stock is trading near the median analyst target (84.0) with meaningful upside potential to the high target (103.0) if earnings momentum persists. However, the near-term overbought reading (RSI ~90) and the substantial debt burden imply that a pullback or consolidation is plausible. The forward P/E of ~22.7 is reasonable for a regulated utility with growth initiatives, but investors should monitor rate-case developments, capex execution, and debt management.
    • Expected return potential: If outcomes align with the high target and earnings revisions improve, 12–24 month upside could approach the mid-teens to low-20% range, contingent on multiple expansion and earnings growth. A more modest upside near the median target is plausible if near-term momentum cools.

Appendix – Data snapshots (Selected)

  • Fundamentals (selected)
    • Current price: 83.71; MarketCap: 172.383B; EV: 274.659B
    • Trailing P/E: 29.17; Forward P/E: 22.75; P/B: 3.39
    • ROE: 7.59%; ROA: 2.71%; Profit Margin: 22.85%; Gross Margin: 61.97%; Operating Margin: 33.85%
    • Debt/Equity: 152.94; Total Cash: 1.728B; Total Debt: 93.189B
    • Dividend Yield: 2.70%; 5-year Avg Yield: 2.41%; Beta: 0.652
  • Analyst Targets
    • High: 103.0; Low: 52.0; Median: 84.0; Mean: 84.5; Coverage: 18 analysts
  • Earnings Summary (selected)
    • Normalized EBITDA (latest): 4.065B; EBITDA: 4.30B
    • Net Income (Continuing Ops, latest): 2.028B; Diluted EPS: 0.98
    • Operating Income: 1.893B; Total Revenue: 6.70B
  • EPS Trend (selected)
    • 0q Diluted EPS: 0.97054; 1q forward: 0.6921
    • 0y Diluted EPS: 3.68311; 1y: 3.94908
  • EPS Revisions (selected)
    • 0q: Up Last 7d: 1; Up Last 30d: 1; Down Last 30d: 0; Down Last 7d: 0
    • 0y: Up Last 7d: 2; Up Last 30d: 5; Down Last 30d: 1; Down Last 7d: 0
  • Technical (selected)
    • 50-day MA (latest): 73.7; Latest Close: 83.7
    • RSI (14): Latest 90.0
    • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD 2.9; Signal 1.8
  • Price Target Lines (drawn)
    • Low (52) – green: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
    • Median (84) – blue: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
    • High (103) – orange: 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09

If you’d like, I can adjust the analysis to emphasize a particular scenario (earnings beat vs. miss, rate-case outcome, or macro rate environment) or extend the price target framework beyond 12–24 months with alternative assumptions.

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