Finance Halo
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is a leading global steel and mining company. It operates in diverse segments including automotive, construction, and packaging, positioning itself as a significant player in the global steel industry. With a focus on strategic growth and operational efficiency, ArcelorMittal aims to maintain its competitive edge in a dynamic market.
Price Action Analysis
Daily Chart (3-month): The daily chart displays a significant upward trend, particularly in the last two months. The price action has been characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong bullish momentum. Volume has generally increased with upward price movements, suggesting strong conviction behind the rally. Several instances of sharp upward price movements are followed by brief consolidations, often forming bullish candlestick patterns. Key resistance levels appear to be tested and broken with increasing volume.
Weekly Chart (2-year): The weekly chart reveals a longer-term recovery and uptrend. After a period of consolidation, the stock has experienced a substantial surge in price over the past several months, breaking out of a multi-year trading range. The price action on the weekly chart shows a robust uptrend with significant gains. Volume on the weekly chart has also seen a marked increase during this recent upward move, corroborating the strength of the trend. Support levels established during the prior consolidation phase have now become potential breakout zones.
News & Catalysts
- "ArcelorMittal's Italian plant faces environmental scrutiny" (Reuters, February 15, 2026): This report highlights ongoing environmental regulatory challenges for ArcelorMittal's Italian operations. While negative in nature, the market appears to have largely priced in such industry-wide concerns, and the stock's upward momentum suggests these issues are not currently hindering investor sentiment.
- "Global steel demand shows resilient growth in 2026 outlook" (Bloomberg, February 10, 2026): This positive outlook on global steel demand suggests a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for ArcelorMittal. Increased demand typically translates to higher prices and improved profitability for steel producers, likely contributing to the stock's recent performance.
- "ArcelorMittal announces share buyback program" (The Wall Street Journal, February 5, 2026): The company's announcement of a share buyback program signals management's confidence in the company's financial health and its stock's valuation. Such programs can reduce the number of outstanding shares, potentially increasing earnings per share and signaling a commitment to returning value to shareholders, which can boost investor sentiment.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $28.73B | N/A |
| Enterprise Value (EV) | $34.12B | N/A |
| Revenue | $79.34B | +8.5% |
| Gross Profit | $15.87B | +12.2% |
| Net Income | $7.15B | +25.0% |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.95 | +23.5% |
| P/E Ratio | 5.71 | -30.2% |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.50 | -28.8% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.65 | -10.3% |
Earnings and Estimates
| Metric | Latest Reported | Year-over-Year Change | Analyst Estimate (Next Quarter) | Analyst Estimate (Next Year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.1B (Q4'25) | +7.1% | $21.5B | $82.3B |
| Earnings Per Share | $2.20 (Q4'25) | +18.0% | $2.40 | $9.50 |
Analyst Recommendations
| Recommendation | Count |
|---|---|
| Strong Buy | 6 |
| Buy | 8 |
| Hold | 5 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Strong Sell | 0 |
Price Targets
| Average Target | High Target | Low Target | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $72.50 | $85.00 | $60.00 | $64.80 |
Key Takeaways: ArcelorMittal demonstrates strong financial health with significant year-over-year growth in revenue, gross profit, and net income. The company's profitability, as indicated by its substantial net income and EPS growth, is robust. The current P/E ratio suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings. Analyst sentiment is largely positive, with a majority of recommendations falling into the "Buy" or "Strong Buy" categories, and the average price target indicates a notable upside potential from the current trading level.
Market & Sentiment Context
Market Context: The broader steel industry is influenced by global economic growth, infrastructure spending, and commodity prices. Recent indications of resilient global steel demand provide a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. The sector is cyclical, and ArcelorMittal's performance is closely tied to industrial output and construction activity worldwide.
Investor Sentiment: The price action, characterized by higher highs and higher lows on both daily and weekly charts, coupled with increasing volume on upward moves, suggests strong positive investor sentiment. This pattern is indicative of accumulation, where demand outpaces supply, driving the price higher. The break out of a long-term consolidation range on the weekly chart further reinforces this optimistic sentiment. The buyback announcement also contributes to a favorable sentiment.
Investment Outlook
ArcelorMittal exhibits a strong upward momentum, supported by positive fundamental data and a favorable market outlook for steel demand. The company's robust financial performance, including growing revenues and profits, alongside a low P/E ratio, suggests potential for continued appreciation. The analyst consensus points towards further upside, with price targets indicating significant room for growth.
Potential Catalysts:
- Continued strong global steel demand.
- Successful execution of strategic growth initiatives and operational efficiencies.
- Further positive announcements regarding shareholder returns (e.g., dividends, buybacks).
- Favorable regulatory developments or easing of environmental concerns.
Key Buy/Sell Levels
The current price of ArcelorMittal (MT) is $64.45.
Support Levels
-
$58.00 - $60.00 Zone: This level represents a significant prior resistance area that was broken during the recent upward surge. It has now transitioned into a potential support zone. This zone was last touched during early February 2026, and the price has since moved higher.
- Current Distance: Not touched.
- Distance from Current Price: $6.45 - $8.45 ($64.45 - $58.00 to $64.45 - $60.00)
- Percentage Distance: 10.0% - 13.1% below current price.
- Rationale: This zone coincides with a volume cluster on the daily chart and was a key breakout point from the multi-year consolidation on the weekly chart.
-
$50.00 - $52.00 Zone: This is a more significant historical support level, which acted as a ceiling for a prolonged period before the recent breakout.
- Current Distance: Not touched.
- Distance from Current Price: $12.45 - $14.45 ($64.45 - $50.00 to $64.45 - $52.00)
- Percentage Distance: 19.3% - 22.4% below current price.
- Rationale: This zone represents a major psychological and technical support level, aligning with the bottom of the prior trading range on the weekly chart and a significant volume area.
Resistance Levels
-
$65.00 - $66.00 Zone: This area represents the immediate resistance and the current trading range boundary. A decisive break above this zone with significant volume could signal further upside.
- Current Distance: Currently trading near this level.
- Rationale: This zone has been tested in the recent daily sessions. A confirmed breakout here would confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
-
$70.00 - $72.00 Zone: This is a projected psychological and technical resistance level, aligning with the upper boundary of expected price targets.
- Current Distance: Not touched.
- Distance from Current Price: $5.55 - $7.55 above current price ($70.00 - $64.45 to $72.00 - $64.45).
- Percentage Distance: 8.6% - 11.7% above current price.
- Rationale: This level is based on extending the current trend and aligns with some analyst price targets, representing a key psychological barrier.
Summary & Takeaways
ArcelorMittal (MT) is exhibiting a strong bullish trend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows on both daily and weekly charts, supported by increasing volume and positive fundamental data. The company's financial performance is robust, with significant growth in revenue and earnings, and it appears undervalued based on its P/E ratio. Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with a consensus for further price appreciation.
The stock is currently trading near its immediate resistance at $65.00 - $66.00. A confirmed break above this level could lead to a retest of the $70.00 - $72.00 zone. Key support levels to watch are $58.00 - $60.00 and $50.00 - $52.00. Given the strong momentum and positive fundamentals, the outlook remains bullish, provided the broader market and steel sector conditions remain favorable. Investors should monitor the $65.00 - $66.00 level for a potential entry point on a confirmed breakout, or consider accumulating on dips towards the $58.00 - $60.00 support zone.