Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Technical Analysis & Key Levels

In-depth technical analysis of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): trend structure, support and resistance levels, MA50/MA200 alignment, RSI momentum, MACD signals, and 52-week high/low. Updated 2025-09-22.

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Provide a pure technical analysis for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). Focus on trend, support/resistance, MA crossovers, RSI and MACD. Draw horizontal lines for Support and resistance.

MSFT Technical Analysis | 2025-09-22

Current price and near-term context

  • Last close: 517.93
  • Context: In the past ~60 days MSFT has traded in a constructive, higher-low environment within a broad 490–540-ish range. The price has been stepping higher from late August into September, with momentum returning after a summer pullback. Price sits above the MA50 (≈511) and well above the MA200 (≈448), suggesting a bullish tilt on a multi-timeframe basis. RSI(14) sits around 60, and MACD is positive, indicating modest upside momentum but no extreme overbought risk.

Summary Snapshot

  • Overall Score (0–20): 12 (Hold)
  • Rationale: Price remains comfortably above MA50 and MA200, with positive MACD and mid-range RSI confirming mild bullish momentum. Yet, the mixture of recent resistance near the 525–540 zone and the absence of a clean break above the 52-week high keeps the stance from upgrading to a Buy. A break above ~525–540 would tilt toward a Buy, while a break below the ~495–500 area would argue for caution.
  • Key Levels (horizontal lines drawn)
    • Support 1: 510 (S1) — first clear touch around Sep 12; confluence with the mid-500s; color: green #2ECC71
    • Support 2: 495 (S2) — prior intraday pivot near Sep 5; color: green #27AE60
    • Resistance 1: 525 (R1) — near recent intraday highs; color: red #E74C3C
    • Resistance 2: 540 (R2) — earlier multi-day high in late July/August; color: red #C0392B
    • 52-Week High reference: 554.54 — psychological/technical ceiling; color: blue #4A6DFF
    • 52-Week Low reference: 343.59 — long-term support context; color: gray #95A5A6
  • Near-Term Outlook
    • Bullish triggers: Close and hold above 525 with continued upside follow-through toward 540 and then the 52-week high near 554.54.
    • Bearish triggers: Break below 495–500 intraday/close would erode the near-term setup and open the door to 490–500 or lower; invalidation would involve reestablishing buying demand above 525–540.

Technical Analysis

Market structure and trend

  • Price action over the last ~3 months shows a gradual re-accumulation after a summer pullback, with higher-balance around 500–520 and occasional test of 540+. The most recent price action (late Aug–Sep) has been constructive, maintaining higher-lows. The current price at 517.93 sits mid-range within this structure.

Moving averages

  • MA(50) = 511.2; MSFT current price is ≈7 points above the MA50, signaling near-term bullishness without being overextended.
  • MA(200) ≈ 447.1; price remains well above the MA200, indicating a longer-term uptrend remains intact.

Momentum and indicators

  • RSI(14) around 60 (as of the latest date in the data), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with room to advance if price can clear the nearby resistance cluster.
  • MACD(12,26,9): The MACD line is positive and above the Signal line (MACD ≈ 0.6 vs Signal ≈ -0.9), implying bullish momentum with positive histogram pressure. The momentum is constructive but not extreme.

Key levels (and why they matter)

  • Support 1 at 510: First major resting area after the recent swing high near 525 and a prior pivot around 509–510; a breach under 510 would raise the risk of a deeper pullback toward the mid-490s.
  • Support 2 at 495: A more pronounced trough in the recent range; a drop below this could increase selling pressure toward the low-490s or sub-480s.
  • Resistance 1 at 525: The near-term upside hurdle; a daily/weekly close above 525 would improve the odds of a push toward 540.
  • Resistance 2 at 540: A higher cap that has historically contained rallies; a break above 540 would open a path toward the 550s and beyond toward the 52-week high.
  • 52-Week High at 554.54: The upper benchmark in the current cycle; a decisive break above this area would be bullish for a sustained run.
  • 52-Week Low at 343.59: Serves as a long-term downside anchor for context; the stock has reconstructed a multi-month range well above this level.

Scenarios and invalidation

  • Bullish scenario:
    • Trigger: Close above 525–540 with follow-through, confirming a breakout toward 540 and, ultimately, the 52-week high around 554.54.
    • Invalidation: A break below 495–500 on a daily close would suggest a deeper retest of the 490 zone and possibly lower.
  • Bearish scenario:
    • Trigger: Sustained failure near 510–515 with a break beneath 495, increasing the chance of a test of the 490–480 range.
    • Invalidation: Reclaiming and sustaining above 525 would reassert the bullish setup.

Notes on the drawn reference levels

  • Horizontal levels were drawn to reflect clearly established touches within the last 60–90 days and to extend forward 100 days, providing a forward-looking guide for potential support/resistance dynamics. The six lines (S1, S2, R1, R2, 52W High, 52W Low) are color-distinct and labeled in the narrative above to avoid ambiguity.

Appendix: Data-driven rationale for levels

  • S1 (510) is anchored by a close around 509.9–510 seen in mid-September and recent intraday touchpoints near the mid-500s; this level has acted as a friction point on multiple tests.
  • S2 (495) marks a noticeable pivot lower within the same window (early September), providing a secondary cushion before more meaningful downside pressure.
  • R1 (525) sits near the most recent test highs in mid-September; a breakout above this area would set the stage for 540.
  • R2 (540) corresponds to earlier high-velocity moves in the 2H window, acting as a critical upper bound for a near-term rally.
  • 52W High (554.54) and 52W Low (343.59) provide longer-range anchors to contextualize MSFT’s current range against its annual extremes.

Notes for users of the charts

  • The horizontal lines were drawn only on price (not on current price line or moving averages) and are extended forward 100 days as requested.
  • Colors: Supports (greens), Resistances (reds), 52W High (blue), 52W Low (gray).

Bottom line

  • The setup is a cautious Hold. MSFT is in a bullish near-term frame (price above MA50 with positive MACD and mid-range RSI), but the key immediate hurdle at 525–540 needs to be cleared to confirm a more durable up-leg toward the 52-week high. A break below 495 would shift the bias toward consolidation or a deeper pullback toward the 490–500 zone.
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