Meta Platforms, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META).

Below is a comprehensive META (META Platforms, Inc.) analysis as of 2025-10-07, including the requested horizontal price target lines and a multi-angle investment view. Per your drawing instructions, I have plotted horizontal lines at the Low, Median, and High targets and extended each 30 days into the future.

Price Target Lines drawn

  • Low Target: 658.00 (blue line)
  • Median Target: 877.50 (orange line)
  • High Target: 1086.00 (red line)

Notes on the lines

  • Times used: p1 = 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, p2 = 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00 (30 days forward)
  • Ticker: META
  • Colors: Low (blue #1f77b4), Median (orange #ff7f0e), High (red #d62728)

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: META remains a dominant, cash-generative platform with strong margins and a robust 40%+ ROE. The stock currently trades below consensus 12-month targets despite improving earnings momentum and favorable long-term ad monetization prospects through AI-enabled advertising and monetization initiatives. The combination of oversold near-term momentum signals and compelling longer-term growth drivers supports an asymmetric upside risk/reward.
  • Price outlook (base case): The current price (~715.66) sits well below the median 12-month target (~877.50) and far below the high target (~1086). The potential upside to the median target is ~22-23%, with possible upside toward the high target if catalysts align.
  • Key near-term signal: RSI (14) recently traded extremely oversold (~22), with MACD negative, suggesting a potential near-term bounce that could help the stock approach the near-term resistance near the 50-day MA (~752) or the median target.
  • Key risks: Ad-market cyclicality, regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressure from other digital platforms, and macro uncertainty. Upside remains contingent on improving advertiser demand and monetization leverage from AI-enabled products.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Current valuation and health
    • Price: 715.66
    • Market cap: 1,797,839,126,528 (approx. $1.798T)
    • Enterprise value: 1,800,328,183,808
    • Trailing P/E: 25.98
    • Forward P/E: 28.29
    • Price-to-Book: 9.23
    • ROE: 40.65%
    • ROA: 18.46%
    • Profit margins: 39.99%
    • Gross margins: 81.97%
    • Operating margins: 43.02%
    • Debt/Equity: 25.41
    • Total cash: 47.07B
    • Total debt: 49.56B
    • Net cash (approx.): -2.49B (slightly net debt)
    • Dividend yield: 0.29%
    • Beta: 1.203
  • Interpretation
    • META remains highly profitable with strong margins and a solid return on equity. Valuation is mid-to-high relative to broad markets, but leverage is modest, and cash generation remains strong. The balance sheet shows near-cash-neutral positioning, which provides flexibility for buybacks and investment in growth initiatives.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)
    • Net income from continuing operations (most recent quarter shown): 18.334B (2025-06-30)
    • Diluted EPS: 7.14 (2025-06-30)
    • Basic EPS: 7.28 (2025-06-30)
    • Normalized EBITDA: 24.921B (2025-06-30)
    • EBITDA: 25.117B (2025-06-30)
    • Operating income: 20.441B (2025-06-30)
    • Total revenue: 47.516B (2025-06-30)
    • Gross profit: 39.025B (2025-06-30)
  • Quarterly trend context
    • The June 2025 quarter shows solid profitability with continued strength in operating margin (around 43%), and a healthy EBITDA framework (≈25.1B). This aligns with META’s historically strong cost controls and high gross margins, suggesting earnings durability even as ad markets navigate cyclical pressures.
  • EPS Trends (selected values)
    • 0q: 6.69612
    • +1q: 8.10011
    • 0y: 28.16567
    • +1y: 30.06601
    • Interpretation: The EPS trend shows a meaningful step-up in the most recent periods, with positive momentum on a year-over-year basis, indicating improving profitability trajectory despite cyclical headwinds.
  • EPS Revisions (surveys of analyst sentiment)
    • 0q: upLast7Days = 2; upLast30Days = 3; downLast30Days = 0; downLast7Days = 0
    • +1q: upLast7Days = 2; upLast30Days = 2; downLast30Days = 0; downLast7Days = 0
    • 0y: upLast7Days = 1; upLast30Days = 8; downLast30Days = 0; downLast7Days = 0
    • +1y: upLast7Days = 4; upLast30Days = 7; downLast30Days = 2; downLast7Days = 2
    • Interpretation: Net upward revisions dominate, especially on a year-long basis, supporting an improving earnings narrative and a more constructive sentiment tilt.
  • Key earnings takeaways
    • Normalized profitability remains strong, with robust gross and operating margins, underpinning durable earnings power.
    • The EPS revisions data point toward ongoing analyst optimism about META’s future earnings trajectory, which is supportive of upside from current levels.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and momentum (last 60 days)
    • Current price: 715.66
    • 50-day moving average (approx. last value): 752.40
    • RSI (14): 22.0 (extremely oversold as of 2025-10-06)
    • MACD (12,26,9): Negative (latest MACD around -8.8 vs. -2.9 signal)
    • Interpretation:
      • The price trades below the 50-day moving average, consistent with a near-term bearish tone.
      • Very oversold RSI suggests potential short-term rebound pressure if buyers step in.
      • Negative MACD indicates momentum remains bearish, but dasing oversold conditions can precede a bounce.
  • Key support/resistance (implied from data)
    • Immediate vicinity support appears near the low-700s region (today’s price around 715, with a potential bounce toward the 50-day MA at ~752).
    • The drawn lines at 658 (Low) and 877.5 (Median) provide clear longer-run reference points for target reversions and risk management.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current analyst price targets
    • High: 1086.0
    • Mean: 867.56
    • Low: 658.0
    • Median: 877.5
    • Number of analysts: 62
    • Current price: 715.66
  • Interpretation
    • The consensus implies meaningful upside from current levels, with a wide high-range scenario (1086) reflecting upside cases driven by stronger-than-expected ad monetization and AI-driven product monetization.
    • Valuation multiples (trailing P/E ≈ 26x, forward P/E ≈ 28x) imply a premium but justified by margins, growth, and cash generation.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Ad-market cyclicality and macro sensitivity impacting demand.
    • Regulatory and privacy headwinds affecting targeting capabilities and monetization.
    • Competitive pressure from other platforms and potential feature parity with rising competitors.
  • Opportunities
    • AI-driven ad tech enhancements and more effective monetization tools.
    • Strength in global user engagement and content platform ecosystem.
    • Share repurchases or capital allocation optimizations that can lift per-share value.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 877.50 (Median); downside risk to 658.00 (Low) if near-term momentum remains weak.
    • Justification: The stock is markedly oversold (RSI ~22) with improving earnings revisions momentum. A mean-reversion trade toward the 50-day MA (~752) could be followed by a test of the median target as sentiment stabilizes.
    • Key drivers:
      • Near-term oversold bounce potential.
      • Positive revisions trend continuing to show upward trajectory in EPS expectations.
      • Potential stabilization of ad demand in next earnings cycle.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Base-case target: 867.56 (Mean) with upside to 1086 (High) if catalysts align.
    • Justification: A constructive earnings trajectory, continued margin durability, and stronger monetization opportunities could push the price toward the mean and potentially to the high target if AI monetization success translates into material revenue acceleration.
    • Key drivers:
      • Ongoing improvements in earnings revisions and momentum.
      • AI-enabled monetization initiatives and product monetization improvements.
      • Stable cash generation enabling strategic investments and buybacks.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • High-case target: 1086.00 (High) as a long-horizon upper bound.
    • Justification: Structural growth in digital advertising, scale advantages, continued margin expansion, and sustained buybacks could support a multi-year upside to the high target, assuming favorable macro and regulatory conditions.
    • Key drivers:
      • Long-duration durable earnings power and margin expansion.
      • Commercialization of AI capabilities and improved monetization across META’s ecosystem.
      • Positive regulatory environment and continued user engagement growth.

Table: Price Targets vs Current Price (illustrative)

  • Current price: 715.66
  • Low target: 658.00 (approx. -7.9% downside)
  • Median target: 877.50 (approx. +22.6% upside)
  • High target: 1086.00 (approx. +51.7% upside)

Note: The price targets reflect analyst consensus and the provided target levels. The actual outcome will depend on earnings execution, ad demand, product monetization success, and broader market factors.

Key Figures Snapshot (selected tables)

  • Valuation and Fundamentals
    • Table: Key Valuation Metrics
      • Current price: 715.66
      • Market cap: 1,797,839,126,528
      • EV: 1,800,328,183,808
      • Trailing P/E: 25.98
      • Forward P/E: 28.29
      • P/B: 9.23
      • ROE: 40.65%
      • ROA: 18.46%
      • Profit margin: 39.99%
      • Gross margin: 81.97%
      • Operating margin: 43.02%
      • Debt/Equity: 25.41
      • Total cash: 47.07B
      • Total debt: 49.56B
      • Net debt: ~-2.49B
      • Dividend yield: 0.29%
      • Beta: 1.203
  • Earnings Snapshot (selected quarters)
    • Table: Selected Earnings Metrics (USD)
      • Quarter (2025-06-30): Net income 18.33B; Diluted EPS 7.14; Basic EPS 7.28; Revenue 47.52B; Gross profit 39.03B; EBITDA 25.12B; Operating income 20.44B
      • Quarter (2025-03-31): Net income 16.64B; Diluted EPS 6.43; Basic EPS 6.59; Revenue 42.31B; Gross profit 34.74B; EBITDA 22.52B; Operating income 17.56B
      • Quarter (2024-12-31): Net income 20.84B; Diluted EPS 8.02; Basic EPS 8.24; Revenue 48.39B; Gross profit 39.55B; EBITDA 28.26B; Operating income 23.36B
  • EPS Trends and Revisions
    • Table: EPS Trends (period, current, 7d ago, 30d ago, 60d ago, 90d ago)
      • 0q: 6.69612, 6.69029, 6.6776, 6.66249, 5.94482
      • +1q: 8.10011, 8.08663, 8.08491, 8.06932, 7.52343
      • 0y: 28.16567, 28.1602, 28.00544, 28.02362, 25.81786
      • +1y: 30.06601, 30.04061, 29.94936, 29.83307, 28.56419
    • Table: EPS Revisions (period, upLast7days, upLast30days, downLast30days, downLast7Days)
      • 0q: 2, 3, 0, 0
      • +1q: 2, 2, 0, 0
      • 0y: 1, 8, 0, 0
      • +1y: 4, 7, 2, 2

Technical Indicators Summary (last 60 days)

  • 50-day MA around 752.4 vs. price 715.7 (bearish near-term)
  • RSI (14) at 22.0 (extremely oversold)
  • MACD (12,26,9) negative (latest around -8.8 vs -2.9 signal)
  • Interpretation: Near-term oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce toward the 50-day MA and possibly toward the median target if a catalyst supports a rebound.

Analyst Consensus & Catalysts

  • Current consensus targets: High 1086.0, Mean 867.56, Low 658.0, Median 877.5; 62 analysts covering
  • Potential catalysts:
    • AI-enabled ad monetization improvements and new product monetization features
    • Revenue growth acceleration from video and commerce integrations
    • Share repurchases and capital return policies
    • Regulatory developments and privacy policy changes
    • Macro ad market dynamics and global digital advertising demand

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12-24 months
  • Rationale:
    • Upside potential is meaningful, with the median price target implying ~22-23% upside from current levels and a high-case upside above 50%. This is attractive given the solid fundamentals, strong margins, and improving EPS revisions.
    • However, near-term momentum is negative (price below 50-day MA, negative MACD) with an oversold RSI suggesting potential for a bounce but not a guaranteed immediate reversal.
    • The stock remains exposed to ad-market cyclicality and regulatory/regulatory risk, which supports a cautious stance rather than a strong Buy today.
  • Expected return potential: Base-case ~+22% to the median target over 12 months, with higher upside in the high-case scenario if catalysts materialize and sentiment improves.

Appendix: Data Refs

  • Price targets and broker consensus: High 1086.0, Mean 867.56, Low 658.0, Median 877.5; 62 analysts
  • Recent earnings and margins: Net income from continuing operations around 18.3B in 2025-06-30; Diluted EPS ~7.14; Gross margin ~81.97%; Operating margin ~43.02%
  • EPS trends: 0q 6.69612; +1q 8.10011; 0y 28.16567; +1y 30.06601
  • EPS revisions: Net upward revisions across 7d/30d windows, indicating improving sentiment
  • Technicals: 50-day MA ~752.4; RSI 22.0; MACD negative

If you’d like, I can tailor the price target analysis to a specific scenario (e.g., assume stronger AI monetization vs. a more cautious stance) or add a sensitivity analysis around the 658/877.5/1086 levels.

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