Moody's Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Moody's Corporation (MCO).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Moody's Corporation (MCO).
Drawing results
- Horizontal trendlines have been plotted for Moody’s Corporation (MCO) at:
- Low Target: 475.00 (green)
- Median Target: 535.00 (blue)
- High Target: 597.00 (orange)
- Each line extends from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01 (30 days into the future).
Executive Summary
- Moody’s (MCO) remains a high-quality, recurring-revenue analytics and ratings franchise with strong profitability, but trades at a premium multiple against peers.
- Current price around 479.82 sits near the Low target (475). Analysts expect upside toward the median and mean targets (~535–545) within the next 12 months, with a high-target catalyst path toward ~597.
- Near-term risk factors include a continued macro slowdown, elevated leverage metrics, and a potentially tepid near-term earnings revision environment. However, the long-run earnings power of Moody’s, driven by stable cash flows, pricing power on ratings/analytics, and capital-light models, supports a constructive longer-term thesis if multiple expansion occurs.
Fundamental Analysis
- Key metrics (as provided)
- Current price: 479.82
- Market cap: 86.06B
- Enterprise value: 91.32B
- Trailing P/E: 40.49
- Forward P/E: 36.02
- Price to Book: 21.79
- Return on Equity (ROE): 53.02%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 12.75%
- Net profit margin: 29.18%
- Gross margin: 72.78%
- Operating margin: 44.68%
- Debt/Equity: 179.87x
- Total cash: 2.29B
- Total debt: 7.39B
- Dividend yield: 0.79% (5-year avg: 0.80%)
- Beta: 1.415
- Commentary:
- Extremely high ROE and robust margins support earnings durability.
- Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity high), which emphasizes credit/interest sensitivity; however, Moody’s business model is cash-generative with sizable cash on hand.
- Valuation remains expensive (trailing P/E ~40, forward P/E ~36) versus broader market norms, but is typical for a high-quality, defensively positioned financial data/ratings franchise.
earnings analysis
- Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)
- 2025-06-30 (latest quarter in the data):
- Normalized EBITDA: 990M
- Net income from continuing operations: 578M
- Diluted EPS: 3.21
- Basic EPS: 3.22
- 2025-03-31:
- Normalized EBITDA: 1,039M
- Net income: 625M
- Diluted EPS: 3.46
- Basic EPS: 3.47
- 2024-12-31:
- Normalized EBITDA: 770M
- Net income: 395M
- Diluted EPS: 2.17
- Basic EPS: 2.18
- 2024-09-30:
- Normalized EBITDA: 916M
- Net income: 534M
- Diluted EPS: 2.93
- Basic EPS: 2.94
- 2024-06-30:
- Normalized EBITDA: 931M
- Net income: 552M
- Diluted EPS: 3.02
- Basic EPS: 3.03
- 2024-03-31:
- Normalized EBITDA: 564M
- Net income: 552M
- Diluted EPS: 3.02
- Basic EPS: 3.03
- 2025-06-30 (latest quarter in the data):
- EPS Trend (selected observations)
- 0q (latest quarter): Diluted EPS 3.48923; 7d ago 3.466; 30d ago 3.453; 60d ago 3.4545; 90d ago 3.44319
- +1q: Diluted EPS 3.07001; 7d ago 3.07066; 30d ago 3.07066; 60d ago 3.07716; 90d ago 3.09537
- 0y (fwd/last year): 13.93568; 7d ago 13.91596; 30d ago 13.89335; 60d ago 13.88857; 90d ago 13.64883
- +1y: 15.63713; 7d ago 15.60715; 30d ago 15.57889; 60d ago 15.58063; 90d ago 15.40134
- EPS Revisions
- 0q: Up last7d = 0; Up last30d = 1; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
- +1q: Up last7d = 0; Up last30d = 1; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
- 0y: Up last7d = 1; Up last30d = 2; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
- +1y: Up last7d = 1; Up last30d = 2; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
- Interpretation:
- Recent quarters show strong absolute earnings, with ongoing normalization toward a high-margin annual base.
- EPS revisions are mixed-to-positive for longer-horizon periods (0y/+1y show more upward revisions than near-term 0q), signaling some analyst optimism on mid-to-longer-term earnings trajectory.
Technical Analysis
- Price and trend
- Current price: 479.82
- 50-day moving average (latest): 504.2 (as of 2025-10-01)
- Price is below the 50-day MA, indicating a short-term negative tilt or consolidation.
- Momentum indicators
- RSI (14): Latest 27.0 (as of 2025-10-01) — in oversold territory, which can precede a mean-reversion.
- MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD value -8.3, Signal -6.7 (as of 2025-10-01) — bearish momentum but potentially near-term exhaustion given oversold RSI.
- Key support/resistance context
- Support: The Low Target line at 475 provides a near-term support reference, aligned with the current price vicinity.
- Resistance: The High Target line at 597 provides a long-run resistance reference that could come into play if earnings momentum and multiple expansion persist.
- Interpretation:
- The stock trades below a rising 50-day MA with bearish MACD but oversold RSI suggests potential for a short-term counter-move if buyers step in. The next meaningful resistance would occur near the 535–545 range (Median/Mean targets) and then 597 if positive catalysts materialize.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Analyst targets (from provided data)
- Target Low: 475
- Target Mean: 544.6667
- Target Median: 535
- Current price: 479.82
- Number of analysts: 21
- Target High: 597
- Interpretive notes
- The consensus indicates meaningful upside from current levels toward the mid- to high-500s, with a pathway toward the 600s at the high end.
- The mean target (544.67) implies roughly 13-14% upside versus the current price if realized over a 12-month horizon. Median and high targets imply a broader upside distribution.
- A diversified base of 21 analysts provides a relatively robust view, but keep in mind that near-term revisions have been mixed.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
- Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 535 (Median) or 544–545 (Mean) as a proximal representation of near-term analyst expectations.
- Justification: The stock is near an attractive support zone and the company’s earnings quality supports re-rating as the operating leverage improves; the oversold RSI also suggests a potential near-term bounce if macro conditions stabilize.
- Key drivers:
- Stabilization/beat in near-term earnings and normalized EBITDA trajectory.
- Moderating negative sentiment from EPS revisions 0q vs 0y/+1y.
- Ongoing pricing power in Moody’s core ratings/analytics segments.
- Risk: If macro conditions worsen or debt and cash flow dynamics deteriorate, downside risk toward 475 remains plausible.
- Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: 535 (median) and 544.67 (mean) guideposts; majority of analysts expect continued earnings growth, potentially re-rating multiple.
- Justification: Earnings growth trajectory, margin stability, and continued monetization of data/analytics products support multiple expansion toward the mid- to high-500s.
- Key drivers:
- Stable cash flow generation and strong profitability margins.
- Potential dividend and capital-return strategy that supports valuation.
- Growth in analytics/rating segments and robust pricing power.
- Risk: Competition, macro headwinds, or regulatory changes impacting spend on credit analytics could temper upside.
- Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 597 (High)
- Justification: A bull case built on sustained pricing power, expanded addressable market through data platforms, and potential accretive acquisitions or product line expansions.
- Key drivers:
- Structural competitive moat in ratings analytics and credit data.
- Margin expansion opportunities in core operations.
- Potential strategic investments and buybacks that support earnings-per-share growth.
- Risk: Structural shifts in the ratings market or larger economic downturns that depress demand for analytics could constrain upside.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Major Risks
- Elevated leverage and debt-to-equity profile implies sensitivity to interest rate moves and financing costs.
- Premium valuation multiple leaves less room for missteps in earnings or macro shock.
- Market and regulatory changes affecting the ratings and data analytics segments could impact growth.
- Key Opportunities
- Recurring revenue model with high margins supports durable earnings and potential multiple re-rating.
- Ongoing demand for risk analytics and credit information as financial markets become more data-driven.
- Potential for dividend growth and capital returns to support total return.
Investment Recommendation
- Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale:
- The stock trades at a premium valuation, but the near-term downside risk appears capped by a strong balance sheet and a high-quality business model. The current price sits near the 475 Low target, with meaningful upside implied by the Median/Mean targets into the 535–545 range over the next 12 months. The High target (~597) provides an optionality path if earnings revisions turn more favorable and market sentiment improves.
- Time horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential: Approximately 10%–25%, depending on whether the stock moves toward the median/mean targets or reaches the high target on stronger-than-expected earnings momentum and multiple expansion.
Technical indicators snapshot (for quick reference)
- 50-day MA: ~504.2 (as of 2025-10-01)
- RSI (14): 27.0 (as of 2025-10-01) — oversold
- MACD (12,26,9): MACD -8.3; Signal -6.7 (as of 2025-10-01) — bearish momentum, potential for a near-term reversal if RSI prints a bottom
Data tables (selected figures)
-
Price Targets and Valuation
- Current price: 479.82
- Target Low: 475.00
- Target Median: 535.00
- Target Mean: 544.6667
- Target High: 597.00
- Analysts: 21
-
Key Fundamental Metrics
- Market cap: 86,059,859,968
- Enterprise value: 91,317,862,400
- Trailing P/E: 40.49
- Forward P/E: 36.02
- Price to Book: 21.79
- ROE: 53.02%
- ROA: 12.75%
- Net margin: 29.18%
- Gross margin: 72.78%
- Operating margin: 44.68%
- Debt/Equity: 179.87
- Total cash: 2.29B
- Total debt: 7.39B
- Dividend yield: 0.79%
- Five-year avg dividend yield: 0.80%
- Beta: 1.415
-
Earnings Summary (selected quarters)
- 2025-06-30: Normalized EBITDA 990M; Net Income 578M; Diluted EPS 3.21; Basic EPS 3.22
- 2025-03-31: Normalized EBITDA 1,039M; Net Income 625M; Diluted EPS 3.46; Basic EPS 3.47
- 2024-12-31: Normalized EBITDA 770M; Net Income 395M; Diluted EPS 2.17; Basic EPS 2.18
- 2024-09-30: Normalized EBITDA 916M; Net Income 534M; Diluted EPS 2.93; Basic EPS 2.94
- 2024-06-30: Normalized EBITDA 931M; Net Income 552M; Diluted EPS 3.02; Basic EPS 3.03
- 2024-03-31: Normalized EBITDA 564M; Net Income 552M; Diluted EPS 3.02; Basic EPS 3.03
-
EPS Trend and Revisions (selected)
- 0q Diluted EPS: 3.48923 (now) ; 7d ago 3.466; 30d ago 3.453; 60d ago 3.4545; 90d ago 3.44319
- +1q Diluted EPS: 3.07001
- 0y Diluted EPS: 13.93568
- +1y Diluted EPS: 15.63713
- EPS Revisions (0q): up7d=0; up30d=1; down30d=1; down7d=1
- EPS Revisions (0y): up7d=1; up30d=2; down30d=1; down7d=1
Notes
- The price targets provided reflect consensus estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. The trendlines drawn provide visual reference for the three defined levels (475, 535, 597) across a 30-day forward horizon.
- Monitor near-term earnings releases and revisions, as they will be major drivers of sentiment and potential multiple expansion or contraction.
If you’d like, I can add a quick sensitivity model showing implied upside/downside to each target given alternative EPS growth scenarios or run a scenario analysis around the 50-day MA crossover and RSI reversion dynamics.