Moody's Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Moody's Corporation (MCO).

Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Moody's Corporation (MCO).

Drawing results

  • Horizontal trendlines have been plotted for Moody’s Corporation (MCO) at:
    • Low Target: 475.00 (green)
    • Median Target: 535.00 (blue)
    • High Target: 597.00 (orange)
  • Each line extends from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01 (30 days into the future).

Executive Summary

  • Moody’s (MCO) remains a high-quality, recurring-revenue analytics and ratings franchise with strong profitability, but trades at a premium multiple against peers.
  • Current price around 479.82 sits near the Low target (475). Analysts expect upside toward the median and mean targets (~535–545) within the next 12 months, with a high-target catalyst path toward ~597.
  • Near-term risk factors include a continued macro slowdown, elevated leverage metrics, and a potentially tepid near-term earnings revision environment. However, the long-run earnings power of Moody’s, driven by stable cash flows, pricing power on ratings/analytics, and capital-light models, supports a constructive longer-term thesis if multiple expansion occurs.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key metrics (as provided)
    • Current price: 479.82
    • Market cap: 86.06B
    • Enterprise value: 91.32B
    • Trailing P/E: 40.49
    • Forward P/E: 36.02
    • Price to Book: 21.79
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 53.02%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 12.75%
    • Net profit margin: 29.18%
    • Gross margin: 72.78%
    • Operating margin: 44.68%
    • Debt/Equity: 179.87x
    • Total cash: 2.29B
    • Total debt: 7.39B
    • Dividend yield: 0.79% (5-year avg: 0.80%)
    • Beta: 1.415
  • Commentary:
    • Extremely high ROE and robust margins support earnings durability.
    • Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity high), which emphasizes credit/interest sensitivity; however, Moody’s business model is cash-generative with sizable cash on hand.
    • Valuation remains expensive (trailing P/E ~40, forward P/E ~36) versus broader market norms, but is typical for a high-quality, defensively positioned financial data/ratings franchise.

earnings analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)
    • 2025-06-30 (latest quarter in the data):
      • Normalized EBITDA: 990M
      • Net income from continuing operations: 578M
      • Diluted EPS: 3.21
      • Basic EPS: 3.22
    • 2025-03-31:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 1,039M
      • Net income: 625M
      • Diluted EPS: 3.46
      • Basic EPS: 3.47
    • 2024-12-31:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 770M
      • Net income: 395M
      • Diluted EPS: 2.17
      • Basic EPS: 2.18
    • 2024-09-30:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 916M
      • Net income: 534M
      • Diluted EPS: 2.93
      • Basic EPS: 2.94
    • 2024-06-30:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 931M
      • Net income: 552M
      • Diluted EPS: 3.02
      • Basic EPS: 3.03
    • 2024-03-31:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 564M
      • Net income: 552M
      • Diluted EPS: 3.02
      • Basic EPS: 3.03
  • EPS Trend (selected observations)
    • 0q (latest quarter): Diluted EPS 3.48923; 7d ago 3.466; 30d ago 3.453; 60d ago 3.4545; 90d ago 3.44319
    • +1q: Diluted EPS 3.07001; 7d ago 3.07066; 30d ago 3.07066; 60d ago 3.07716; 90d ago 3.09537
    • 0y (fwd/last year): 13.93568; 7d ago 13.91596; 30d ago 13.89335; 60d ago 13.88857; 90d ago 13.64883
    • +1y: 15.63713; 7d ago 15.60715; 30d ago 15.57889; 60d ago 15.58063; 90d ago 15.40134
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q: Up last7d = 0; Up last30d = 1; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
    • +1q: Up last7d = 0; Up last30d = 1; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
    • 0y: Up last7d = 1; Up last30d = 2; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
    • +1y: Up last7d = 1; Up last30d = 2; Down last30d = 1; Down last7d = 1
  • Interpretation:
    • Recent quarters show strong absolute earnings, with ongoing normalization toward a high-margin annual base.
    • EPS revisions are mixed-to-positive for longer-horizon periods (0y/+1y show more upward revisions than near-term 0q), signaling some analyst optimism on mid-to-longer-term earnings trajectory.

Technical Analysis

  • Price and trend
    • Current price: 479.82
    • 50-day moving average (latest): 504.2 (as of 2025-10-01)
    • Price is below the 50-day MA, indicating a short-term negative tilt or consolidation.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14): Latest 27.0 (as of 2025-10-01) — in oversold territory, which can precede a mean-reversion.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD value -8.3, Signal -6.7 (as of 2025-10-01) — bearish momentum but potentially near-term exhaustion given oversold RSI.
  • Key support/resistance context
    • Support: The Low Target line at 475 provides a near-term support reference, aligned with the current price vicinity.
    • Resistance: The High Target line at 597 provides a long-run resistance reference that could come into play if earnings momentum and multiple expansion persist.
  • Interpretation:
    • The stock trades below a rising 50-day MA with bearish MACD but oversold RSI suggests potential for a short-term counter-move if buyers step in. The next meaningful resistance would occur near the 535–545 range (Median/Mean targets) and then 597 if positive catalysts materialize.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst targets (from provided data)
    • Target Low: 475
    • Target Mean: 544.6667
    • Target Median: 535
    • Current price: 479.82
    • Number of analysts: 21
    • Target High: 597
  • Interpretive notes
    • The consensus indicates meaningful upside from current levels toward the mid- to high-500s, with a pathway toward the 600s at the high end.
    • The mean target (544.67) implies roughly 13-14% upside versus the current price if realized over a 12-month horizon. Median and high targets imply a broader upside distribution.
    • A diversified base of 21 analysts provides a relatively robust view, but keep in mind that near-term revisions have been mixed.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 535 (Median) or 544–545 (Mean) as a proximal representation of near-term analyst expectations.
    • Justification: The stock is near an attractive support zone and the company’s earnings quality supports re-rating as the operating leverage improves; the oversold RSI also suggests a potential near-term bounce if macro conditions stabilize.
    • Key drivers:
      • Stabilization/beat in near-term earnings and normalized EBITDA trajectory.
      • Moderating negative sentiment from EPS revisions 0q vs 0y/+1y.
      • Ongoing pricing power in Moody’s core ratings/analytics segments.
    • Risk: If macro conditions worsen or debt and cash flow dynamics deteriorate, downside risk toward 475 remains plausible.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 535 (median) and 544.67 (mean) guideposts; majority of analysts expect continued earnings growth, potentially re-rating multiple.
    • Justification: Earnings growth trajectory, margin stability, and continued monetization of data/analytics products support multiple expansion toward the mid- to high-500s.
    • Key drivers:
      • Stable cash flow generation and strong profitability margins.
      • Potential dividend and capital-return strategy that supports valuation.
      • Growth in analytics/rating segments and robust pricing power.
    • Risk: Competition, macro headwinds, or regulatory changes impacting spend on credit analytics could temper upside.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 597 (High)
    • Justification: A bull case built on sustained pricing power, expanded addressable market through data platforms, and potential accretive acquisitions or product line expansions.
    • Key drivers:
      • Structural competitive moat in ratings analytics and credit data.
      • Margin expansion opportunities in core operations.
      • Potential strategic investments and buybacks that support earnings-per-share growth.
    • Risk: Structural shifts in the ratings market or larger economic downturns that depress demand for analytics could constrain upside.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks
    • Elevated leverage and debt-to-equity profile implies sensitivity to interest rate moves and financing costs.
    • Premium valuation multiple leaves less room for missteps in earnings or macro shock.
    • Market and regulatory changes affecting the ratings and data analytics segments could impact growth.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Recurring revenue model with high margins supports durable earnings and potential multiple re-rating.
    • Ongoing demand for risk analytics and credit information as financial markets become more data-driven.
    • Potential for dividend growth and capital returns to support total return.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold
  • Rationale:
    • The stock trades at a premium valuation, but the near-term downside risk appears capped by a strong balance sheet and a high-quality business model. The current price sits near the 475 Low target, with meaningful upside implied by the Median/Mean targets into the 535–545 range over the next 12 months. The High target (~597) provides an optionality path if earnings revisions turn more favorable and market sentiment improves.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Approximately 10%–25%, depending on whether the stock moves toward the median/mean targets or reaches the high target on stronger-than-expected earnings momentum and multiple expansion.

Technical indicators snapshot (for quick reference)

  • 50-day MA: ~504.2 (as of 2025-10-01)
  • RSI (14): 27.0 (as of 2025-10-01) — oversold
  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD -8.3; Signal -6.7 (as of 2025-10-01) — bearish momentum, potential for a near-term reversal if RSI prints a bottom

Data tables (selected figures)

  • Price Targets and Valuation

    • Current price: 479.82
    • Target Low: 475.00
    • Target Median: 535.00
    • Target Mean: 544.6667
    • Target High: 597.00
    • Analysts: 21
  • Key Fundamental Metrics

    • Market cap: 86,059,859,968
    • Enterprise value: 91,317,862,400
    • Trailing P/E: 40.49
    • Forward P/E: 36.02
    • Price to Book: 21.79
    • ROE: 53.02%
    • ROA: 12.75%
    • Net margin: 29.18%
    • Gross margin: 72.78%
    • Operating margin: 44.68%
    • Debt/Equity: 179.87
    • Total cash: 2.29B
    • Total debt: 7.39B
    • Dividend yield: 0.79%
    • Five-year avg dividend yield: 0.80%
    • Beta: 1.415
  • Earnings Summary (selected quarters)

    • 2025-06-30: Normalized EBITDA 990M; Net Income 578M; Diluted EPS 3.21; Basic EPS 3.22
    • 2025-03-31: Normalized EBITDA 1,039M; Net Income 625M; Diluted EPS 3.46; Basic EPS 3.47
    • 2024-12-31: Normalized EBITDA 770M; Net Income 395M; Diluted EPS 2.17; Basic EPS 2.18
    • 2024-09-30: Normalized EBITDA 916M; Net Income 534M; Diluted EPS 2.93; Basic EPS 2.94
    • 2024-06-30: Normalized EBITDA 931M; Net Income 552M; Diluted EPS 3.02; Basic EPS 3.03
    • 2024-03-31: Normalized EBITDA 564M; Net Income 552M; Diluted EPS 3.02; Basic EPS 3.03
  • EPS Trend and Revisions (selected)

    • 0q Diluted EPS: 3.48923 (now) ; 7d ago 3.466; 30d ago 3.453; 60d ago 3.4545; 90d ago 3.44319
    • +1q Diluted EPS: 3.07001
    • 0y Diluted EPS: 13.93568
    • +1y Diluted EPS: 15.63713
    • EPS Revisions (0q): up7d=0; up30d=1; down30d=1; down7d=1
    • EPS Revisions (0y): up7d=1; up30d=2; down30d=1; down7d=1

Notes

  • The price targets provided reflect consensus estimates and do not guarantee outcomes. The trendlines drawn provide visual reference for the three defined levels (475, 535, 597) across a 30-day forward horizon.
  • Monitor near-term earnings releases and revisions, as they will be major drivers of sentiment and potential multiple expansion or contraction.

If you’d like, I can add a quick sensitivity model showing implied upside/downside to each target given alternative EPS growth scenarios or run a scenario analysis around the 50-day MA crossover and RSI reversion dynamics.

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