Moody's Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Moody's Corporation (MCO).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Moody's Corporation (MCO).

Horizontal price target lines drawn

  • Low Target (440): drawn and extended to 30 days past today (2025-11-09) in blue
  • Median Target (539): drawn and extended to 30 days past today (2025-11-09) in green
  • High Target (597): drawn and extended to 30 days past today (2025-11-09) in red

Note: The horizontal lines are plotted for MCO at:

  • 440 (blue)
  • 539 (green)
  • 597 (red)

Executive Summary

  • Moody’s Corporation (MCO) trades around mid-500s on a premium valuation, underpinned by strong profitability and recurring revenue from ratings and risk analytics services.
  • Analysts’ targets imply meaningful upside from the current price, with the median target near 539 and the high target at 597. Current price is 492.46, suggesting potential upside of roughly 9-21% depending on the target set used.
  • The stock sits in a high-quality, cash-generative business with solid margins, but carries notable leverage (debt to equity) and a historically high P/E multiple. Near-term price action shows a slight weakness relative to the 50-day moving average, but momentum via RSI and MACD remains constructive.

Fundamental Analysis Key Valuation and Health Metrics

  • Current price: 492.46
  • Market cap: 88.33B
  • Enterprise value: 93.16B
  • Trailing P/E: 41.88
  • Forward P/E: 36.97
  • PEG ratio: not provided
  • Price to book: 22.37
  • Return on equity (ROE): 53.02%
  • Return on assets (ROA): 12.75%
  • Profit margin: 29.18%
  • Gross margin: 72.78%
  • Operating margin: 44.68%
  • Debt to equity: 179.87 (high leverage)
  • Total cash: 2.29B
  • Total debt: 7.39B
  • Dividend yield: 0.77%
  • Five-year average dividend yield: 0.80%
  • Beta: 1.41 (softly more volatile than the market)

Valuation commentary:

  • The stock trades at a premium to book and to forward earnings, reflecting Moody’s strong franchise, visibility, and pricing power in credit ratings and risk analytics.
  • The high debt-to-equity ratio signals leverage risk, though Moody’s cash generation and margins historically support coverage. Debt levels are a material consideration if rates rise or growth slows.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Performance (selected highlights from the provided quarterly data)

  • 2025-06-30 (latest quarter):
    • Total revenue: 1.898B
    • Operating revenue: 1.898B
    • EBITDA: 966M
    • EBIT: 846M
    • Net income: 578M
    • Diluted EPS: 3.21
  • 2025-03-31:
    • Total revenue: 1.924B
    • EBITDA: 1.002B
    • EBIT: 889M
    • Net income: 625M
    • Diluted EPS: 3.46
  • 2024-12-31:
    • Total revenue: 1.672B
    • EBITDA: 719M
    • EBIT: 606M
    • Net income: 395M
    • Diluted EPS: 2.17
  • 2024-09-30:
    • Total revenue: 1.813B
    • EBITDA: 899M
    • EBIT: 791M
    • Net income: 534M
    • Diluted EPS: 2.93
  • 2024-06-30:
    • Total revenue: 1.817B
    • EBITDA: 915M
    • EBIT: 805M
    • Net income: 552M
    • Diluted EPS: 3.02
  • 2024-03-31:
    • Total revenue: 1.817B
    • EBITDA: (data present in table; approximate consistency)
    • Diluted EPS: (data present in table; approximate consistency)

EPS Trend

  • Current quarter diluted EPS: 3.21 (2025-06-30)
  • Sequential quarterly trend shows a modest step down from 3.46 (2025-03-31) to 3.21 (2025-06-30), with earlier quarters in the 2.9–3.0 range.
  • Trailing/annual context:
    • 0y (last twelve months): ~13.99
    • +1y (next twelve months / consensus forward look): ~15.70
  • Interpretation: The company has a solid base of earnings power, with upward-longer-term earnings trajectories implied by the 1-year forward figure, though quarterly earnings oscillate with the business mix.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q revisions: upLast7days: 1; upLast30days: 2; downLast30days: 1; downLast7days: 0
  • +1q revisions: upLast7days: 0; upLast30days: 1; downLast30days: 2; downLast7days: 1
  • 0y revisions: upLast7days: 2; upLast30days: 4; downLast30days: 1; downLast7days: 0
  • +1y revisions: upLast7days: 1; upLast30days: 3; downLast30days: 2; downLast7days: 0 Interpretation:
  • Historically, near-term sentiment has been mixed but with a tilt toward upgrades in the longer horizon (0y and +1y windows show more upgrades vs downgrades). Given the robust absolute earnings, revisions have the potential to support multiple expansion if upgrades persist.

Technical Analysis (last 60 days)

  • 50-day moving average (MA): around 500–505 in recent data; latest date around 2025-10-09 shows MA ~501.5, while the close was ~492.5, indicating the price is modestly below the 50-day MA.
  • RSI (14): recent readings around 60–61 (not yet overbought; suggests room for upside if momentum continues).
  • MACD (12,26,9): recently negative but improving; on 2025-10-09, MACD around -4.1 with Signal around -5.9 (MACD above the signal line, a bullish cross hint).
  • Current price action: trading near 492, slightly under the 50-day MA, with constructive momentum signals developing. The price has recently completed a range-bound to mildly upward path, aided by improving MACD and a constructive RSI.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 492.46
  • Number of analysts: 21
  • Target High: 597.0
  • Target Low: 440.0
  • Target Median: 539.0
  • Target Mean: 543.48 Interpretation:
  • The consensus implies a meaningful upside from the current level, with a median target near 539 and a mean target near 543.5. The maximum target sits near 597, suggesting credible upside potential if earnings momentum and revisory signals confirm.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Assumptions:

  • The three explicit price targets provided are used as the basis for horizons.

  • Current price = 492.46

  • Targets: Low 440, Median 539, High 597

  • Short-term horizon = ~3 months; Mid-term = ~12 months; Long-term = 3+ years

  • Approximate upside calculations are provided for context.

  • Short-Term (3 months)

    • Target: 539 (median)
    • Justification: Near-term earnings momentum, EPS revisions edging positive in the near term, and a relatively balanced risk backdrop. The stock trading around 492 with a median target at 539 implies ~9% upside. With the current price near 492 and the 50-day MA around 502, a rebound toward the median target could be catalyzed by continued positive revisions and stable, high-margin earnings.
    • Key drivers:
      • Positive near-term EPS revisions trend (net upgrades in the 0q window).
      • Maintained or improved gross and operating margins (historical margins remain strong).
      • Analyst coverage (21 analysts) supports a credible near-term move toward the median target.
    • Target range (short-term): 539 (midpoint of the implied range)

  • Mid-Term (12 months)

    • Target: 543.48 (mean) or around 539–545 cluster
    • Justification: The 12-month window aligns with the mean target (~543.48) and a resilient margin profile. If the EPS revisions continue to tilt upward and the company sustains high profitability, a re-rating toward the mean target is plausible as multiple players adjust estimates higher.
    • Key drivers:
      • Sustained high profitability (ROE ≈ 53%, robust gross/operating margins).
      • Potential modest multiple expansion given continued visibility and steady cash generation.
      • Ongoing demand for Moody’s analytics and risk ratings in a cyclical financial environment.
    • Target range (mid-term): ~543–550 (approximate central tendency around the mean)

  • Long-Term (3+ years)

    • Target: 597 (high target)
    • Justification: The high target reflects the potential for multiple expansion if Moody’s growth path remains durable and market conditions support valuation expansion. In the longer horizon, Moody’s could benefit from continued resilience in ratings demand, pricing power, and potential accretive capital allocation (share repurchases/dividend growth) assuming leverage remains manageable.
    • Key drivers:
      • Durable moat in ratings analytics and risk services; high ROE and strong profitability.
      • Possible gradual reduction in leverage risk if free cash flow improves and debt levels are managed.
      • Macroeconomic tailwinds in global credit markets (regulatory demand for risk assessment, governance, and compliance).
    • Target range (long-term): up to 597 (aligned with the high target)

Valuation Context (supporting the above targets)

  • Current price vs key targets:
    • Low vs current: 440 vs 492.46 implies a potential downside of ~-10.7% if the stock were to revert to the low target.
    • Median vs current: 539 vs 492.46 implies roughly +9% upside.
    • High vs current: 597 vs 492.46 implies roughly +21% upside.
  • Given the premium forward P/E (36.97) and ROE strength, a continued earnings trajectory and positive revisions would be supportive of at least mid-single-digit to low-double-digit upside over the next year, with risk skewed to macro and leverage considerations.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks:
    • Elevated debt-to-equity ratio (≈180) raises sensitivity to interest rate changes and deleveraging challenges.
    • Valuation is rich (high trailing and forward P/E), making the stock vulnerable to any earnings disappointment or macro shock.
    • Regulatory and competitive pressures in the ratings business could impact growth margins if pricing power softens.
  • Key Opportunities:
    • High-margin business model with strong ROE and robust gross/operating margins.
    • Upward EPS revisions trend in the 0y and +1y windows suggests upside earnings momentum.
    • Structural demand for risk analytics and ratings in a growing compliance and risk-management environment.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale: The stock offers meaningful upside to the median and high targets, supported by strong profitability and a favorable revisions trend. The near-term price action shows some softness relative to the 50-day MA, but improving MACD and a solid RSI imply potential for a positive re-rating. The leverage profile warrants caution, and the premium valuation implies the upside is contingent on sustained earnings momentum and continued demand for Moody’s services.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): approximately 8–12% to the median/mean targets, with upside potential toward 15–21% if the high target validates and multiple expansion occurs.

Price Target Summary Table

  • Current price: 492.46
  • Number of analysts: 21
  • Target Low: 440.0
  • Target Median: 539.0
  • Target High: 597.0
  • Target Mean: 543.48

Valuation and Target Snapshot (quick view)

  • Price vs targets:
    • Low: -10.7% downside from current
    • Median: +9.5% upside
    • High: +21% upside
  • Indicative upside potential based on consensus targets:
    • Median target (539): ~9%
    • Mean target (543.48): ~10.5%
    • High target (597): ~21%

Technical Snapshot (selected indicators)

  • 50-day MA: ~501 (price near 492, modestly below MA)
  • RSI (14): ~60–61 (neutral to slightly bullish)
  • MACD: recently improving but still negative; MACD line above signal, suggesting near-term bullish momentum
  • Interpretation: Near-term softness with a potential constructive rebound if momentum persists and earnings revisions stay positive.

Notes on Data Reference

  • Earnings data cited above come from the provided quarterly results, with the latest quarter showing Diluted EPS of 3.21 and Net Income of 578M.
  • EPS Trend figures indicate current quarterly EPS around 3.21 with trailing annual context in the mid-to-high teens, suggesting a robust but variable quarterly earnings cadence.
  • EPS Revisions data shows a mix of upgrades and downgrades, with a tilt toward upgrades in longer horizons (0y, +1y), supportive of a potential positive re-rating if revisions persist.

If you’d like, I can provide a CSV-friendly summary of the earnings, revisions, and technical indicators, or tailor the price target analysis to a specific time horizon and scenario (e.g., base vs. bullish vs. bearish case).

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