McDonald's Corporation Stock Price Targets

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) as of 2025-10-07, incorporating the requested price-target drawing and a detailed narrative across valuation, earnings, technicals, and price-target thesis.

Drawn Price-Target Lines

• Low Target: 250.00 (color: #2ECC71)
• Median Target: 335.00 (color: #FF851B)
• High Target: 381.00 (color: #E74C3C)

Chart geometry note:

• Each line is extended 30 days forward from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06.
• Horizontal placements reflect the specified price targets.
• Ticker for the lines: MCD

Executive Summary

• Investment thesis: McDonald’s remains a resilient, cash-generative franchise with strong unit economics, global footprint, and disciplined capital returns. The market’s price is currently below the center of the analyst target distribution, implying potential upside if demand remains constructive and core margins hold up in a higher-rate environment.
• Price outlook: The median analyst target of 335.00 suggests ~13% upside from the current price (~296). The high target of 381.00 implies potential upside near ~28% under favorable growth/margin scenarios, while the low target of 250.00 indicates downside risk if demand or margin dynamics deteriorate.

Key Metrics (as provided)

• Current price: 296.04
• Market cap: 211.26B
• Enterprise value: 268.79B
• Trailing P/E: 25.35
• Forward P/E: 23.48
• PEG ratio: N/A
• Price to book: -76.54 (note: unusual negative P/B; warrants further investigation)
• ROA: 13.26% (0.13256)
• Profit margins: 32.21%
• Gross margins: 56.99%
• Operating margins: 47.67%
• Total cash: 1.88B
• Total debt: 55.89B
• Dividend yield: 2.35% (five-year avg: 2.21%)
• Beta: 0.504
• Shares: diluted ~717.6M

Analyst Price Targets (summary)

• Target low: 250.00
• Target median: 335.00
• Current price: 296.04
• Target high: 381.00
• Target mean: 333.00
• Number of analysts: 28

Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

• Total Revenue (latest quarter shown): 6.843B (2025-06-30)
• EBITDA (normalized): 3.889B (2025-06-30)
• Normalized Income: 2.328B (2025-06-30)
• Net income (continuing ops): 2.253B (2025-06-30)
• Operating income: 3.261B (2025-06-30)
• Diluted EPS: 3.14 (2025-06-30); Basic EPS: 3.157
• Key drivers in the quarter: stable revenue with solid gross (≈57%), healthy operating margins (~47.7%), and EBITDA strength underpinning cash generation.

EPS Trends (quarterly and year-over-year context)

• 0q (latest): Diluted EPS 3.3915; 7d ago 3.4015; 30d ago 3.4085; 60d ago 3.3784; 90d ago 3.3688
• +1q: Diluted EPS 3.1179; 7d ago 3.1232; 30d ago 3.1245; 60d ago 3.1036; 90d ago 3.0889
• 0y: Diluted EPS 12.3387; 1y prior around 12.342; 0y 12.338 vs prior 12.342 (flat-to-down)
• +1y: Diluted EPS 13.3508; 1y prior around 13.361; modest year-over-year growth

Takeaway on EPS:

• Near-term EPS is hovering in the 3.11–3.39 range depending on period; a modest near-term dip in some quarters (vs the higher trailing 0y/1y figures) is visible, with a recovery implied by normalization in the trailing performance.
• Longer-term earnings power remains supported by persistent margins and robust cash generation.

EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment)

• 0q revisions: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 1, downLast30days 7, downLast7days 2
• +1q revisions: upLast7days 1, upLast30days 2, downLast30days 5, downLast7days 3
• 0y revisions: upLast7days 1, upLast30days 5, downLast30days 7, downLast7days 4
• +1y revisions: upLast7days 1, upLast30days 5, downLast30days 7, downLast7days 4

Implication:

• The revision data show more downgrades than upgrades in recent windows, signaling cautious sentiment in the near term, though there are occasional upgrades in broader timeframes. This aligns with a cautious-but-positive price-target spread around the median/mean target levels.

Technical Analysis (last 60 days)

• 50-day Moving Average (MA): ~305.5 (latest window shows MA around 305–306)
• Current price: 296.0 (below the 50-day MA)
• RSI (14): ~36.5 (late period reading)
• MACD (12,26,9): Negative (latest around -2.0) with a negative signal line (~-1.3 to -1.1 in recent notes)

Interpretation:

• Price is trading below the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term weak momentum relative to the intermediate-term trend.
• RSI around 36–37 indicates modest oversell pressure but not extreme; not in classic “oversold” territory (<30), yet signaling some momentum fatigue.
• MACD remains negative, consistent with a cautious stance in the short term, though turning points could emerge with favorable fundamentals or macro sentiment.

Key Support/Resistance and Moving Averages:

• Near-term support: ~290–295 (technical lint around the 50-day MA vicinity and recent troughs)
• Resistance near: 305–310 (around the 50-day MA and prior consolidation levels)
• The drawn target lines (250, 335, 381) provide potential structural reference zones for longer-term price exploration.

Fundamental Analysis

• Valuation posture:
  • Forward P/E ~23.5 indicates a high-quality multiple, consistent with a mature, cash-generative consumer staple/fast-food operator with global brand advantage.
  • Price-to-book is abnormally negative in the data (−76.54). This is atypical for MCD and warrants a closer look at the balance sheet composition (possibly due to heavy buybacks, unusual accounting, or negative book value artifacts). In any case, the P/B signal here is not the primary driver of valuation for a cash-generative franchise like MCD.
• Financial health:
  • Cash position is modest ($1.88B) against sizable debt ($55.89B). The debt level is high, but the business model’s operating cash flow historically supports deleveraging and dividend growth.
  • Profitability: Strong margins (Gross ~57%, Operating ~47.7%, Net margin around 32%) point to durable profitability and franchise economics.
  • Dividend yield of ~2.35% sits above the five-year average, consistent with a steady cash-return framework.
• Growth/investment context:
  • MCD continues to leverage store-level efficiency, menu innovation, digital ordering, and international expansion, with a focus on efficiency and unit economics.

Earnings Quality

• Revenue consistency: Total Revenue quarterly numbers show a stable path around the $6–7B range with modest quarterly variability, indicating resilient topline performance from a broad global footprint.
• Margins: The margin structure remains robust (Gross > 56%, Operating ~48%), suggesting earnings quality supported by scale and operating leverage.
• Returns/earnings sustainability: The normalized earnings framework around $2.3B for the latest quarter (normalized income) and the steady EPS in the $3.1–3.4 range support earnings durability. The presence of unusual items netting out of earnings in the cited data suggests some non-operating or one-off effects in prior periods, but the ongoing business remains margin-stable.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

• Current consensus targets: Low 250, Median 335, High 381
• Coverage: ~28 analysts
• Potential catalysts: sustained domestic and international growth, menu optimization, digital engagement, price realization, and cost controls; potential upside from margin stability and share repurchases. Downside catalysts include commodity cost volatility, wage pressures, regulatory headwinds, and macro slowdown.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

• Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target range: 250–335 (low to median) with upside to the median implied by current pricing.
  • Justification: Near-term sentiment appears cautious per revisions data; macro softness or rising costs could keep price range modest. Price could drift toward the median target (335), factoring in ongoing brand strength and cash-flow resilience.
  • Key drivers: stabilizing comps, promotional mix optimization, continued digital adoption, and resilient U.S./International growth. Fundamentals support continued cash generation, even if near-term momentum remains tepid.

• Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 335 (median) as baseline; potential for 381 (high) in favorable scenarios.
  • Justification: Steady-margin execution, resilient cash flow, and modest multiple expansion could lift price toward the median. The 381 high target represents a more optimistic scenario with continued margin resilience and ongoing share repurchases, potentially supported by stronger-than-expected domestic/international same-store sales growth and favorable cost inflation dynamics.
  • Key drivers: sustained price realization, efficiency gains, digital expansion, and acceleration of international growth in high-velocity markets. Pro-cyclical consumer demand and a robust capital returns program would be supportive.

• Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 381-plus, with upside scenarios contingent on durable comp growth, emerging market expansion, and continued efficiency.
  • Justification: If long-run margin expansion continues, global footprint strengthens, and digital ordering scales more efficiently, the stock could trade at a higher multiple reflecting superior earnings quality and cash-flow generation.
  • Key drivers: comp growth in core markets, store modernization, menu experimentation (e.g., premium offerings and limited-time promotions), and continued share repurchases/organic capital returns. Risks include commodity volatility, wage pressures, regulatory constraints, and secular shifts in consumer dining patterns.

Key Risks & Opportunities

• Risks:
  • Commodity and wage inflation pressures impacting margins.
  • Competitive intensity from quick-service rivals and evolving consumer preferences (e.g., healthier options, premium offerings).
  • Macro sensitivity impacting discretionary spending and dine-out frequency.
  • Execution risk in international markets with regulatory and currency headwinds.
• Opportunities:
  • Ongoing digital transformation and mobile ordering efficiency.
  • Margin leverage from store optimization, menu price realization, and cost controls.
  • Growth in emerging markets and acceleration of international franchising with supply chain improvements.
  • Attractive dividend yield and optionality from buybacks driving per-share metrics.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Hold
• Time horizon: 12–24 months
• Rationale: The stock sits near the middle of analyst targets with a median price around 335 and a current price of ~296, implying ~13% upside on the baseline. The high target (~381) suggests meaningful upside under favorable margin and growth scenarios, but recent EPS revisions show more downgrades than upgrades in the near term, underscoring a tempered near-term sentiment. The price action is currently below the 50-day MA, with RSI in the mid-30s and MACD negative, signaling modest near-term momentum headwinds. Nevertheless, the strong profitability, durable cash flows, and steady dividend are supportive of a constructive longer-term stance. A gradual appreciation toward the median/high targets is plausible if margins hold and growth accelerates.

Markdown Tables: Selected Data Snapshot

1. Key Metrics Table

• Please refer to the values summarized at the top of this section under "Key Metrics (as provided)."

2. Analyst Targets

• Target Low: 250.00
• Target Median: 335.00
• Current Price: 296.04
• Target High: 381.00
• Target Mean: 333.00
• Analysts Covered: 28

3. Earnings Summary (selected quarters)

• Quarter (Latest shown): 2025-06-30
  • Normalized Income: 2.327B
  • EBITDA: 3.889B
  • Net Income (Continuing Ops): 2.253B
  • Diluted EPS: 3.14
  • Basic EPS: 3.157
  • Total Revenue: 6.843B
• Quarter: 2025-03-31
  • Normalized Income: 1.909B
  • EBITDA: 3.227B
  • Net Income: 1.867B
  • Diluted EPS: 3.1179
  • Total Revenue: 5.955B
• Quarter: 2024-12-31
  • Normalized Income: 2.028B
  • EBITDA: 3.486B
  • Net Income: 2.016B
  • Diluted EPS: 2.8
  • Total Revenue: 6.388B
• Quarter: 2024-09-30
  • Normalized Income: 2.335B
  • EBITDA: 3.857B
  • Net Income: 2.255B
  • Diluted EPS: 3.13
  • Total Revenue: 6.874B
• Quarter: 2024-06-30
  • Normalized Income: 2.145B
  • EBITDA: 3.435B
  • Net Income: 2.023B
  • Diluted EPS: 2.8
  • Total Revenue: 6.494B

4. EPS Trend Snapshot

• 0q current: 3.3915
• 7 days ago: 3.4015
• 30 days ago: 3.4085
• 60 days ago: 3.3784
• 90 days ago: 3.3688
• +1q: 3.1179
• +1y: 13.3508 (year-over-year context in the provided data)

5. EPS Revisions Snapshot

• 0q: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 1, downLast30days 7, downLast7days 2
• +1q: upLast7days 1, upLast30days 2, downLast30days 5, downLast7days 3
• 0y: upLast7days 1, upLast30days 5, downLast30days 7, downLast7days 4
• +1y: upLast7days 1, upLast30days 5, downLast30days 7, downLast7days 4

6. Technical Snapshot (latest data points)

• 50-day MA: ~305.5
• Latest Close: 296.0
• RSI (14): ~36.5
• MACD (12,26,9): -2.0 (latest)

Notes and disclosures

• The drawn price-target lines are for visualization and do not constitute investment advice. They reflect consensus targets (low/median/high) embedded in the provided analyst dataset.
• All figures are from the provided data set and reflect the information available as of 2025-10-07.

If you’d like, I can:

• Build a more formal probabilistic scenario (base/bull/bear) around the earnings trajectory and targets.
• Add a sensitivity analysis showing how changes in revenue growth or margin could affect the 12- and 24-month target pathway.
• Integrate a comparative benchmark (e.g., vs. peers like Yum! Brands, Starbucks) to contextualize MCD’s multiple and growth profile.