Lam Research Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX).

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) as of 2025-10-02, with horizontal trendlines drawn for the Low, Median, and High price targets.

Notes on price-target lines

  • Low Target: 80
  • Median Target: 115
  • High Target: 160
  • Lines drawn to extend 30 days into the future (from 2025-10-02 to 2025-11-01)
  • Colors chosen for clarity:
    • Low (support): #FF4500
    • Median (central target): #1E90FF
    • High (resistance/upper target): #32CD32

Technical drawing confirmation (executed)

  • Low Target line drawn at 80.0 (color #FF4500)
  • Median Target line drawn at 115.0 (color #1E90FF)
  • High Target line drawn at 160.0 (color #32CD32)

Executive Summary

  • LRCX remains a leading lithography and semiconductor equipment supplier with exposure to AI-driven capex cycles. The stock trades at a high multiple and exhibits a strong near-term momentum by price action, but has become functionally overbought on a relative strength basis.
  • Price today: 142.79 (as of 2025-10-02)
  • Analysts’ consensus targets imply a wide range: Low 80, Median 115, High 160, with 30 analysts covering. The current price sits above the median target, suggesting potential near-term risk of a pullback or a re-rating depending on demand/supply dynamics and macro factors.
  • The company exhibits robust profitability and balance sheet strength:
    • Trailing P/E ~31, Forward P/E ~33
    • ROE ~58%, ROA ~18%, Profit Margin ~29%
    • Debt to Equity ~48%, Total Cash ~ $6.39B, Total Debt ~ $4.76B
    • Dividend Yield ~0.81%
  • Technical backdrop shows strong momentum with RSI at elevated levels and MACD positive, but near-term risk is heightened by overbought conditions.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key valuation metrics
    • Current price: 142.79
    • Market cap: ~$180.1B
    • Enterprise value: ~$179.1B
    • Trailing P/E: 30.97
    • Forward P/E: 33.44
    • Price to Book: 18.37
    • ROE: 58.2%
    • ROA: 18.4%
    • Gross Margin: 48.7%
    • Operating Margin: 33.7%
    • Net Profit Margin: 29.1%
    • Debt to Equity: 48.2%
    • Total Cash: ~$6.39B
    • Total Debt: ~$4.76B
    • Dividend Yield: 0.81% (5-year average ~1.07%)
    • Beta: 1.77
  • Financial health
    • Strong profitability metrics and cash generation support a durable earnings base.
    • Moderate leverage with cash on hand; debt load is manageable relative to cash flow.
  • Interpretation
    • The stock commands a premium multiple consistent with a high-quality, secular growth franchise in equipment for leading-edge semiconductor manufacture. The positive margins and ROE indicate efficient capital deployment, but the elevated valuation combined with a high beta and stretched RSI overnight suggests limited upside in the near term unless earnings visibility improves or the broader AI capex cycle accelerates.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Performance (quarterly)
    • 2025-06-30: Net Income from Continuing Operations: ~$1.72B; Diluted EPS: $1.35
    • 2025-03-31: Net Income from Continuing Operations: ~$1.33B; Diluted EPS: $1.03
    • 2024-12-31: Net Income from Continuing Operations: ~$1.19B; Diluted EPS: $0.92
    • 2024-09-30: Net Income from Continuing Operations: ~$1.12B; Diluted EPS: $0.86
    • 2024-06-30: Net Income from Continuing Operations: ~$1.02B; Diluted EPS: $0.78
  • EPS Trend
    • Current quarter (0q): 1.2185
    • 7 days ago: 1.2077
    • 30 days ago: 1.2081
    • 60 days ago: 1.2052
    • 90 days ago: 0.9835
    • +1q (next-year look): 1.0285
    • 0y (last 4 quarters): 4.4726
    • +1y (forecast/next year): 5.1283
    • Interpretation: EPS has shown solid sequential gains in the most recent quarterly results (1.35 in 2025-06-30 vs 1.03 in 2025-03-31), and the year-over-year trend suggests meaningful earnings growth into the next year, supported by improving demand and product mix.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q: Up revisions in last 7 days (1), last 30 days (2); Down revisions (2) in last 30 days; Down last 7 days (0)
    • +1q: Up last 7 days (2), Up last 30 days (3); Down last 30 days (2)
    • 0y: Up last 7 days (2), Up last 30 days (5); Down last 30 days (1)
    • +1y: Up last 7 days (1), Up last 30 days (2); Down last 30 days (3)
    • Interpretation: The revision data show a net tilt toward upward revisions across recent horizons, particularly for the 0y and +1y periods, signaling improving earnings visibility among analysts.
  • Earnings Quality
    • Revenue growth has been resilient with expanding gross and operating margins.
    • The normalized EBITDA trend supports sustainable cash generation.
    • EPS growth is supported by both margin expansion and higher volumes in leading-edge processes, though the valuation multiples imply that the stock may be pricing in strong future growth.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and moving averages
    • Current price: ~142.8
    • 50-day MA: ~108.3 (latest)
    • Price is well above the 50-day MA, indicating a bullish intermediate-term trend but also potential for mean-reversion if the rally pauses.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI: ~89 (extremely overbought condition)
    • Interpretation: The RSI indicates overbought territory, implying elevated risk of a near-term pullback or consolidation.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • Latest MACD: ~8.5 with a Signal ~7.2
    • Interpretation: Positive MACD with widening gap suggests continuing bullish momentum, but overbought RSI could precede a short-term correction.
  • Moving-average context
    • With price well above the 50-day MA and RSI elevated, the stock currently trades on robust momentum but remains vulnerable to a near-term pullback if macro data or company guidance disappoints.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current analyst targets (30 covering)
    • Target Low: 80.00
    • Target Mean: 116.59
    • Target Median: 115.00
    • Target High: 160.00
  • Current price vs targets
    • Price: 142.79
    • Median target (115) implies a potential near-term downside relative to the current level under a reversion scenario.
  • Drivers and catalysts
    • Catalysts include AI-capex demand trends, memory/logic node cycles, capacity additions, and macro uncertainty that could compress or expand multiple valuations.
  • Notes on coverage
    • 30 analysts provide a relatively broad set of views; the dispersion (80–160) indicates significant upside/downside depending on demand trajectory and supply-chain dynamics.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months): Target 115
    • Justification: Near-term profit-taking risk after a strong run; RSI indicates overbought conditions; potential consolidation around the median target as the market digests Q2 results and near-term guidance.
    • Key drivers: Macro demand signals for AI-related capex, supply chain normalization, any incremental guidance for 2H CY2025.
  • Mid-Term (12 months): Target 160
    • Justification: Positive earnings revisions trend, robust gross/operating margins, and continued AI-related capex supporting sustained demand for leading-edge lithography equipment.
    • Key drivers: Upward EPS revisions, continued revenue growth in core segments, potential multiple re-rating on stronger profitability and cash generation.
  • Long-Term (3+ years): Target 80
    • Justification: The bear-case path considers cyclical downturns, potential demand normalization, competitive pressures, and valuation reversion if growth slows or if supply-cycle dynamics deteriorate.
    • Key drivers: Worsening semiconductor capex cycle, macro downturns, competitive/technological disruptions, or significant reductions in AI-related investment cycles.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Semiconductor capex cycles are highly cyclical; a downturn could pressure order intake and pricing.
    • Elevated valuation leaves less room for multiple compression without a step-change in fundamentals.
    • Potential supply-chain constraints, geopolitical tensions, or demand shifts away from leading-edge nodes.
    • RSI at elevated levels signals risk of near-term pullback despite momentum.
  • Key Opportunities
    • AI/large-scale deployment could sustain durable demand for leading-edge lithography equipment.
    • Positive EPS revisions and strong profitability provide a cushion against cyclicality.
    • Balance sheet strength and cash generation enable continued R&D and potential shareholder-friendly actions.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Rationale: The stock sits at a high price with a bullish near-term momentum but overbought RSI suggests a risk of a near-term pullback. The range of analyst targets (80–160) indicates substantial uncertainty about the magnitude of upside versus downside, and the current price trades above the median target. The balance between strong fundamentals and high valuation supports a cautious stance.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Moderate to high in a favorable AI capex environment if the stock re-rates higher (toward the 160 target). Risk of meaningful drawdown toward the 115–80 area if momentum wanes or if macro conditions deteriorate.

Tables and Key Data (condensed)

  • Valuation snapshot
  • Analyst targets
  • Earnings summary (selected quarters)
  • EPS trend
  • EPS revisions
  • Technical indicators

Valuation and Key Metrics

  • Metric | Value
  • Current price | 142.79
  • Market cap | ~$180.1B
  • Enterprise value | ~$179.1B
  • Trailing P/E | 30.97
  • Forward P/E | 33.44
  • P/B | 18.37
  • ROE | 58.2%
  • ROA | 18.4%
  • Net profit margin | 29.1%
  • Gross margin | 48.7%
  • Operating margin | 33.7%
  • Debt-to-equity | 48.2%
  • Total cash | ~$6.39B
  • Total debt | ~$4.76B
  • Dividend yield | 0.81%
  • 5-year avg dividend yield | 1.07%
  • Beta | 1.77

Analyst Targets

  • Target Low | 80.00
  • Target Mean | 116.59
  • Target Median | 115.00
  • Target High | 160.00
  • Current price | 142.79
  • Number of analysts | 30

Recent Earnings Summary (selected metrics)

  • Quarter End | Diluted EPS | Net Income | EBITDA | Normalized Income
  • 2025-06-30 | 1.35 | 1.72B | 1.92B | 1.727B
  • 2025-03-31 | 1.03 | 1.33B | 1.68B | 1.334B
  • 2024-12-31 | 0.92 | 1.19B | 1.49B | 1.195B
  • 2024-09-30 | 0.86 | 1.12B | 1.44B | 1.144B
  • 2024-06-30 | 0.78 | 1.02B | 1.29B | 1.030B

EPS Trend (selected figures)

  • Period | EPS
  • 0q | 1.2185
  • 7daysAgo | 1.2077
  • 30daysAgo | 1.2081
  • 60daysAgo | 1.2052
  • 90daysAgo | 0.9835
  • +1q | 1.0285
  • 0y | 4.4726
  • +1y | 5.1283

EPS Revisions (summary counts)

  • 0q: UpLast7days=1, UpLast30days=2, DownLast30days=2, DownLast7Days=0
  • +1q: UpLast7days=2, UpLast30days=3, DownLast30days=2, DownLast7Days=0
  • 0y: UpLast7days=2, UpLast30days=5, DownLast30days=1, DownLast7Days=0
  • +1y: UpLast7days=1, UpLast30days=2, DownLast30days=3, DownLast7Days=0

Technical Indicators (Last 60 Days)

  • 50-day MA (latest) = 108.3
  • Price (latest) = 142.8
  • RSI (14) latest = 89.1
  • MACD (12,26,9) latest = 8.5, Signal = 7.2
  • Interpretation: Momentum is strong, but RSI indicates potential short-term pullback risk; price well above 50-day MA suggests continued strength if momentum persists, but valuation remains a constraint.

Conclusion

  • LRCX is a high-quality, profitable semiconductor equipment company with strong cash generation and robust margins. The stock is currently trading well above the median analyst target and at elevated momentum levels, indicating a higher near-term risk of a pullback if macro conditions soften or if the AI capex cycle pauses.
  • The price target spectrum (80–160) reflects significant upside potential, but also a meaningful downside risk if growth slows or multiple expansion reverses.
  • Investors should weigh near-term momentum and valuation against the longer-term earnings trajectory and revisions. A cautious stance (Hold) with a watchful eye on RSI, orders, and guidance is prudent, with upside potential if the AI capex cycle accelerates and analysts revise targets higher.

If you’d like, I can adjust the Short/Mid/Long-Term targets to reflect alternative scenarios (e.g., only use the mean target or construct probability-weighted paths) or summarize the implications under different macro scenarios.

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