Lam Research Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX).

Crystalized drawing completed. I’ve plotted horizontal lines for the Low, Median, and High price targets and extended them 30 days into the future.

  • Low Target: $80.00 (blue)
  • Median Target: $120.00 (orange)
  • High Target: $175.00 (red)
  • Extension: Lines extend to 2025-11-09 (roughly 30 days from 2025-10-09 data)

Technical note: The lines were drawn with the following p1/p2 coordinates:

  • Low: 2025-10-09 -> 2025-11-09 at price 80
  • Median: 2025-10-09 -> 2025-11-09 at price 120
  • High: 2025-10-09 -> 2025-11-09 at price 175

Now, the comprehensive analysis.

Executive Summary

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) sits at the nexus of semiconductor manufacturing equipment demand, with a robust margin profile and improving earnings trajectory. The stock trades around 141, near the upper end of consensus targets, and is supported by positive earnings momentum, a favorable technical setup, and a resilient balance sheet. Analyst targets span a wide range (Low 80, Median 120, High 175), underscoring the cyclicality of the semiconductor capex cycle and the potential for outsized upside if wafer fab spending accelerates. A balanced view suggests a constructive stance with upside potential in favorable cycles, but meaningful downside risk exists if the broader cyclical/semiconductor backdrop softens.

  • Key takeaway: Bullish on longer-term cycle upside but expect near-term volatility tied to semicap cycles. Current price supports a modest to material upside scenario if the cycle strengthens, but risk-reward remains highly cyclical.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and Size

    • Current price: 141.0
    • Market cap: 177.81B
    • Enterprise value: 178.77B
    • Trailing P/E: 33.98
    • Forward P/E: 33.02
    • Price to Book: 18.14
    • PEG ratio: not provided
    • Dividend yield: 0.73% (five-year average: 1.05%)
    • Beta: 1.84 (implied higher sensitivity to market swings)

  • Profitability and Returns

    • Return on Equity (ROE): 58.2%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 18.4%
    • Profit margins: 29.1%
    • Gross margins: 48.7%
    • Operating margins: 33.7%

  • Balance Sheet and Cash

    • Total cash: $6.39B
    • Total debt: $4.76B
    • Debt to equity: 48.2%
    • Net cash position: modest (cash vs. debt modestly positive)
    • Financial health appears solid with strong margins and a healthy balance sheet for continued capex cycles.

  • Cash Flow and Earnings Quality

    • EBITDA and operating income show robust profitability in the latest period, with normalized EBITDA around $1.93B for the latest quarter.
    • The company demonstrates healthy operating leverage with EBITDA growth versus prior periods.

  • Key takeaway

    • LRCX is financially robust with expanding profitability and a balance sheet capable of supporting continued R&D and capacity expansion through cycles. Valuation is elevated but supported by high ROE and strong margins. The stock appears reasonably priced to capture an upcycle in semiconductor capex, but cyclical risk remains a core consideration.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (as of 2025-06-30 quarter)

    • Net Income (Continuing Operations): $1.72B
    • Diluted EPS: $1.35
    • Normalized EBITDA: $1.927B
    • EBITDA: $1.920B
    • Operating Income: $1.821B
    • Total Revenue: $5.171B
    • Gross Profit: $2.589B
    • Key drivers: Strong gross/margin control with substantial top-line growth versus prior periods; lower unusual items and stable interest dynamics.

  • EPS Trend

    • 0q (most recent quarter in the data): Diluted EPS 1.35; Basic EPS 1.35
    • +1q: Diluted EPS 1.03; Basic EPS 1.04
    • 0y: Diluted EPS 4.489; +1y: 5.156 (TTM vs. YoY growth)
    • Near-term quarterly EPS is improving sequentially (1.03 in +1q after 1.35 in 0q appears to reflect quarterly seasonality in the dataset). The year-over-year trend shows continued, meaningful growth (TTM EPS around 5.16 vs prior year around 4.49). The normalized EBITDA trend also supports earnings durability.

  • EPS Revisions

    • 0q: Up last 7 days = 1, Up last 30 days = 2; Down last 30 days = 2; Down last 7 days = 0
    • +1q: Up last 7 days = 2; Up last 30 days = 4; Down last 30 days = 2; Down last 7 days = 0
    • 0y: Up last 7 days = 3; Up last 30 days = 5; Down last 30 days = 1; Down last 7 days = 0
    • +1y: Up last 7 days = 3; Up last 30 days = 3; Down last 30 days = 2; Down last 7 days = 0
    • Interpretation: EPS revisions have leaned positive over the last 30-90 days, with more upgrades than downgrades in both 0q and multi-quarter windows. This supports a constructive near-to-mid-term earnings trajectory.

  • Earnings Quality

    • Revenue growth is solid (Total Revenue rising across the periods in the earnings summary).
    • Gross and operating margins are robust, indicating sustainable earnings quality.
    • R&D expense remains a meaningful line item, consistent with a technology leader investing in process technology and capacity.

  • Takeaway

    • The earnings narrative is supportive of upside as the capex cycle in semiconductors strengthens. The positive EPS revisions, improving quarterly EPS, and durable margins align with a constructive medium-term outlook.

Technical Analysis

  • Price Action

    • Current price around 141.0, well above the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish short- to intermediate-term trend (based on last 60 days of MA data).

  • 50-Day Moving Average (MA)

    • Last observed MA: ~113.8 on 2025-10-09; price is well above the 50-day MA, suggesting bullishness with upside potential if momentum persists.

  • RSI (14)

    • Latest RSI: ~65.9 (near upper-middle range; not yet overbought). This supports continued upside but with some risk of a pullback near overbought zones.

  • MACD (12,26,9)

    • Latest MACD ~9.2 with Signal ~9.0 (bullish cross/positive divergence close to recent levels). MACD remains positive, indicating ongoing momentum.

  • Key Takeaway

    • The technical backdrop is supportive: price sits above the 50-day MA, RSI is constructive but not extreme, and MACD remains bullish. The price target lines (80/120/175) provide clear resistance/support anchors for the ongoing cycle.

  • Summary of technical indicators (last 60 days)

    • 50-day MA rising from the 80–110 region into ~114 recently, with price comfortably above MA.
    • RSI gradually trending higher but not extreme; MACD positive and slightly above its signal line.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current Price: 141.0

  • Number of Analysts: 30

  • Price Targets (as provided)

    • Low: 80.0
    • Median: 120.0
    • High: 175.0
    • Mean: 122.32

  • Interpretation

    • The consensus reflects a broad distribution: substantial upside potential (to 175) juxtaposed with a material downside risk (to 80) and a median around 120. The stock currently trades above the median target, implying potential near-term overhang if the cycle softens, but also leaving room for upside if the cycle strengthens.

  • Potential Catalysts

    • Semicap demand cycles strengthening any of the AI compute, advanced logic, or memory capex themes.
    • EUV process technology adoption and capacity expansions in leading-edge fabs.
    • Positive earnings revisions and better-than-expected quarterly prints.
    • Stability in margins and cash flow generation.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)

    • Target: around 140–150 (central case around 145)
    • Justification: The stock is already near the high end of consensus, supported by a constructive technical setup (price above 50-day MA; MACD bullish; RSI not overbought). EPS revisions have shown net positive momentum over the last 30–90 days, implying potential for continued near-term outperformance if the cycle holds.
    • Key Drivers: Ongoing capex cycle in semiconductors, positive revisions, robust gross and operating margins; near-term catalysts could include stabilization of macro conditions and solid quarterly results.

  • Mid-Term (12 months)

    • Target: around 165–175 (center ~170)
    • Justification: The high target at 175 reflects possible upside in a stronger capex cycle; a 12-month horizon benefits from expansive wafer fab investments, continued leadership in lithography technology, and potential margin expansion if pricing and mix remain favorable.
    • Key Drivers: Sustained capex momentum in foundries/IDMs, continued adoption of advanced process nodes, and steady cash generation enabling continued investment in R&D and capacity.

  • Long-Term (3+ years)

    • Target: around 185–210 (center ~195–200)
    • Justification: In a favorable long-cycle scenario, LRCX could capture multi-year demand tied to AI compute, HPC workloads, and next-gen manufacturing technology adoption. The company’s market position and profitability profile support higher long-term multiples, particularly if the secular drivers of semiconductor manufacturing remain robust.
    • Key Drivers: Prolonged capex expansion across major semiconductor nodes, potential product-cycle upgrades (EUV lithography leadership), ongoing efficiency gains, and potential margin expansion as operating leverage scales with revenue.

  • Summary Table (targets anchored to available data)

    • Low target: 80
    • Median target: 120
    • High target: 175
    • Current price: 141
    • Analyst mean target: 122.32
    • Implied upside (base case vs. current): modest to negative in median case; upside potential in the high-case scenario

  • Professional view

    • The consensus range shows a wide dispersion, reflecting cyclicality and sensitivity to the semiconductor capex cycle. The current price sits above the median consensus, indicating that near-term upside is not guaranteed, but there is meaningful upside in a constructive cycle, especially toward the high target of 175.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks

    • Semiconductor capex cycle remains cyclical and sensitive to demand/allocations by large foundries.
    • Global trade/tariff and supply-chain constraints affecting equipment vendors.
    • Execution, supply of critical components, and competition in front-end lithography ecosystems.
    • Downside risk if AI demand or data center investments cool, or if customers delay capex.

  • Key Opportunities

    • Sustained or accelerating wafer fab spending in AI, HPC, and 5G-era applications.
    • Margin expansion opportunities as scale improves and operating leverage accrues.
    • Strong balance sheet supports continued R&D investment and potential strategic initiatives.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to Moderate Buy, with a bias toward upside if the macro/semiconductor capex cycle improves.
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected Return Potential:
    • Bear/Base case (aligned with median/mean targets around 120–125): potential returns near flat-to-negative versus the current price (roughly -5% to -10% depending on entry timing).
    • Bull Case (toward High target 175): potential upside of ~20–25% from current levels, assuming the cycle strengthens and earnings revisions stay positive.
    • Long-Term Case (3+ years, target ~200): potential upside of ~40%+ if the secular drivers for semiconductor manufacturing capex remain robust and margins hold.
  • Rationale: The combination of strong profitability, improving EPS revisions, and positive technical indicators supports upside, but the stock is already trading above the median analyst target. Elevated cyclicality means patient investors who can tolerate pullbacks may benefit most if the bull case unfolds.

Tables: Key Figures

  • Summary Metrics
  • Analyst Targets
  • Recent Earnings Summary
  • EPS Trend
  • EPS Revisions
  • Technical Indicators
  1. Key Metrics
  • Current price: 141.0
  • Market cap: 177,805,557,760
  • Enterprise value: 178,767,511,552
  • Trailing P/E: 33.98
  • Forward P/E: 33.02
  • Price to Book: 18.14
  • ROE: 58.24%
  • ROA: 18.40%
  • Profit margins: 29.06%
  • Gross margins: 48.70%
  • Operating margins: 33.67%
  • Debt/Equity: 48.23%
  • Total cash: 6,390,659,072
  • Total debt: 4,756,554,752
  • Dividend yield: 0.73%
  • Five-year avg dividend yield: 1.05%
  • Beta: 1.84
  1. Analyst Price Targets
  • Current price: 141.0
  • Number of Analyst Opinions: 30
  • Target Low: 80.0
  • Target Median: 120.0
  • Target High: 175.0
  • Target Mean: 122.32
  1. Recent Earnings Summary (selected fields)
  • Periods: 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31, 2024-12-31, 2024-09-30, 2024-06-30
  • Normalized EBITDA: 1.927B, 1.684B, 1.495B, 1.443B, 1.289B
  • EBITDA: 1.920B, 1.679B, 1.490B, 1.433B, 1.289B
  • Operating Income: 1.821B, 1.582B, 1.394B, 1.339B, 1.200B
  • Net Income: 1.720B, 1.331B, 1.191B, 1.116B, 1.020B
  • Diluted EPS: 1.35, 1.03, 0.92, 0.86, 0.778
  • Total Revenue: 5.171B, 4.720B, 4.376B, 4.168B, 3.872B
  1. EPS Trend
  • 0q: 1.21894
  • 7 days ago: 1.21854
  • 30 days ago: 1.20774
  • 60 days ago: 1.20796
  • 90 days ago: 0.99249
  • +1q: 1.03067
  • +1y: 5.15581
  1. EPS Revisions (periods)
  • 0q: Up Last7 Days = 1; Up Last 30 Days = 2; Down Last 30 Days = 2; Down Last 7 Days = 0
  • +1q: Up Last7 = 2; Up Last 30 = 4; Down Last 30 = 2; Down Last 7 = 0
  • 0y: Up Last7 = 3; Up Last 30 = 5; Down Last 30 = 1; Down Last 7 = 0
  • +1y: Up Last7 = 3; Up Last 30 = 3; Down Last 30 = 2; Down Last 7 = 0
  1. Technical Indicators (Last 60 Days)
  • 50-Day MA (latest): 113.8
  • RSI (14): 65.9 (as of 2025-10-09)
  • MACD: 9.2 (Close), Signal 9.0

Notes:

  • The above analysis uses the provided earnings, EPS trends, and revisions data to form a view on earnings trajectory and revision sentiment.
  • The draw_line outputs reflect the Low (80), Median (120), and High (175) price targets, extended 30 days beyond the latest data point, as requested.

If you’d like, I can tailor the price target scenarios to a specific risk profile (e.g., add a downside scenario with a 20–30% drop toward the Low target in a weak cycle) or tighten the Mid-Term/Long-Term targets with an explicit probabilistic framework.

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