Lowe's Companies, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW).

Price target analysis and chart annotations for Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Date of analysis: 2025-10-07 Current price: 241.67

Action taken: Horizontal trendlines drawn on the active price chart for the three price targets provided

  • Low Target: 221.00 (color: green)
  • Median Target: 283.00 (color: blue)
  • High Target: 325.00 (color: red)
  • Extension: Each line is extended roughly 30 days into the future from today (through 2025-11-06) to the right edge of the chart
  1. Drawn trendlines
  • Low target line (221.00): green, extended to 2025-11-06
  • Median target line (283.00): blue, extended to 2025-11-06
  • High target line (325.00): red, extended to 2025-11-06
  1. Executive Summary
  • Core thesis: LOW trades at a modest premium to the market with a constructive if not extraordinary long-term upside potential reflected in the 283 (median) and 325 (high) analyst targets. The stock sits in a cyclical, consumer-spend-sensitive sector aligned with housing-related discretionary demand. Near-term price action has been pressured by oversold momentum, while valuation remains reasonable on a forward earnings basis despite a negative or mixed EPS revisions backdrop.
  • Near-term stance: Potential bounce candidates exist given oversold momentum (RSI in the low single digits at recent closes) and a price that has recently traded below the 50-day moving average, but negative EPS revisions and a mixed earnings cadence temper optimism.
  • Longer-term stance: If cost efficiency, margin stabilization/expansion, and store-level productivity improve, multiple expansion toward the median/high targets is plausible, albeit contingent on consumer durability and housing-market fundamentals.
  1. Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation snapshot

    MetricValue
    Current price$241.67
    Market cap$136.07B
    Enterprise value$171.99B
    Trailing P/E19.83x
    Forward P/E19.13x
    Price-to-book-11.89 (negative)
    ROA14.29%
    Profit margin8.20%
    Gross margin33.46%
    Operating margin14.48%
    Total cash$5.26B
    Total debt$39.09B
    Net debt (approx.)$33.83B
    Dividend yield1.95%
    Beta0.88

  • Interpretation

    • Valuation: Forward earnings multiple is in line with a typical big-box retailer, suggesting modest upside if earnings trends hold. The negative book-value signal (P/B) appears anomalous for a retailer with meaningful tangible assets; this outlier should be checked against the data source (e.g., due to accounting conventions or mis-stated book value). If taken at face value, the negative P/B would imply an unusual balance sheet reading; the cash/debt mix and operating cash flow remain the more relevant lens.
    • Financial health: Enterprise value materially higher than cash, reflecting a levered capital structure with significant debt. The company carries a sizable debt load relative to cash, which warrants attention to interest coverage and the ability to finance ongoing share repurchases and capex without compromising liquidity.
    • Margins: Solid gross and operating margins for a home improvement retailer; net margin around 8% signals reasonable profitability given scale and mix.
    • Cash flow considerations: EBITDA and operating income figures in the recent quarters show volatility; normalization is a key watch for the next several quarters.
  1. Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (quarterly)

    • 2025-07-31: Normalized EBITDA $4.026B; Net income from continuing operations $2.398B; Diluted EPS $4.27
    • 2025-04-30: Normalized EBITDA $3.026B; Net income $1.645B; Diluted EPS $2.92
    • 2025-01-31: Normalized EBITDA $2.376B; Net income $1.125B; Diluted EPS $1.99
    • 2024-10-31: Normalized EBITDA $3.080B; Net income $1.695B; Diluted EPS $2.99
    • 2024-07-31: Normalized EBITDA $3.980B; Net income $2.383B; Diluted EPS $4.17
    • Takeaway: A notable spike in the 2025-07-31 quarter (EPS of 4.27) contrasts with preceding quarters that were more in the mid-2s to low-3s. Normalized EBITDA has fluctuated 2.38B–4.03B across these periods, highlighting earnings volatility around the period. The elevated EPS in 2025-07-31 is influenced by tax or one-off items included in “Tax Rate For Calcs” (around 0.24) and higher non-operating or unusual items, per the normalization data.

  • EPS Trend

    PeriodCurrent7 days ago30 days ago60 days ago90 days ago
    0q Diluted EPS2.9992.9993.0023.0313.041
    +1q Diluted EPS2.0762.0762.0742.0542.055
    0y Diluted EPS12.31912.31912.31512.24312.238
    +1y Diluted EPS13.32813.33313.30713.35913.349
    • Interpretation: Trailing twelve-month (0y) EPS is around 12.32, with a forward-looking (next-year) pattern around 13.33. The near-term EPS (0q) runs around 3.0 per quarter and is consistent with larger annualized earnings when annualizing multiple quarters. The +1y figure (~13.3) suggests modest growth going forward, assuming no material changes in tax or unusual items.

  • EPS Revisions

    PeriodUp Last7DaysUp Last30DaysDown Last30DaysDown Last7Days
    0q17160
    +1q11080
    • Interpretation: Net negative revision influence over the past 30 days, especially for the 0q data, with more downgrades (16) than upgrades (7) in 0q and still more downgrades in the +1q window (8 downgrades vs 10 upgrades). The revisions trend is mildly negative in the near term, suggesting some skepticism around near-term earnings momentum despite improving longer-term EPS trajectory.

  • Earnings quality (revenue, margins, sustainability)

    • Revenue: Total revenue in the latest reported period: $23.96B (trailing quarter around 2025-07-31) with operating revenue of $23.63B; gross profit $8.10B; operating income $3.469B.
    • Margins: Gross margin ~33.5%; operating margin ~14.5%; net margin ~8.2%.
    • Sustainability: The combination of persistent operating margins around mid-teens and robust cash generation supports ongoing profitability, but the near-term EPS revisions indicate potential volatility. The earnings quality appears solid, with revenue growth and margins supporting valuation at a forward multiple in the 19x area.
  1. Technical Analysis
  • Price action and key levels
    • Current price: 241.67
    • 50-day moving average (latest): 253.5 (as of 2025-10-06)
    • RSI (14) recently: 5–7 range (extremely oversold)
    • MACD (12,26,9): negative (MACD around -3.0 in late period), with the signal lagging
  • Interpretation
    • The stock is trading below the 50-day moving average, signaling near-term bearishness. The RSI is deeply oversold, implying potential for a short-term technical bounce. However, the MACD remains negative, pointing to continued momentum weakness unless a catalyst reverses the trend.
  • Moving average analysis
    • 50-day MA = 253.5 vs price 241.7 implies a short-term resistance around the 50-day average. A move back above the 50-day MA would be a bullish near-term sign; failure to reclaim may keep downside risk limited to support zones.
  • RSI and MACD
    • Extreme oversold readings (RSI ~5–7) suggest a bounce could occur if fundamental concerns are alleviated or if a sector-wide/market rebound occurs. MACD negative readings indicate that momentum remains bearish, and any rally would need to be confirmed by MACD crossover and a rising RSI.
  1. Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst targets (consensus snapshot)

    • Target Low: 221.00
    • Target Median: 283.00
    • Current price: 241.67
    • Target High: 325.00
    • Number of analysts: 32
    • Target Mean: 283.16

  • Interpretation

    • The median target of 283 implies potential upside of roughly 17% from current levels. The mean target around 283.16 aligns with the median, reinforcing a consensus view of mid-teens upside to ~283. High target 325 implies the possibility of ~35% upside if conditions improve. Low target at 221 indicates downside risk of about -8% from the current price.

  • Catalysts

    • Earnings trajectory stabilization and margin improvement
    • Store productivity, cost controls, and supply chain efficiencies
    • Housing market demand stabilization and consumer discretionary spend
    • Share repurchases and capital allocation strategies
    • Electric/online capabilities and omnichannel execution pressure testing the topline

  • Price targets (short-term bias)

    • 3-month target (short-term): 283 (central/baseline)
    • 12-month target (mid-term): 325 (upper-end scenario)
    • 3+ years target (long-term): we provide a qualitative framework and a conservative numeric anchor below the high target, e.g., 350 as a longer-term upside scenario if margin improvements and growth persist.
  1. Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)
  • Short-Term (3 months): 283.00
    • Justification: The median target points to a near-term re-rating to the mid-280s if the company sustains or slightly accelerates earnings momentum and if near-term oversold conditions resolve. Key drivers include stabilization of gross and operating margins, continued strong cash generation, and potential modest share repurchases.
    • Risks: Negative near-term EPS revisions, macro consumer-spending softness, and commodity/operating cost volatility could cap upside in the near term.
  • Mid-Term (12 months): 325.00
    • Justification: The high target reflects potential upside from margin expansion, expense discipline, and favorable housing-related demand in the recovery cycle. If the company can preserve profitability, reaccelerate comps, and maintain a disciplined capital plan, multiple expansion toward the high target is plausible.
    • Risks: Weaker-than-expected consumer spending, persistent input cost pressure, or a deterioration in housing activity could cause limited upside or multiple contraction.
  • Long-Term (3+ years): 350.00 (range-based view)
    • Justification: A longer horizon scenario assumes steady margin stabilization, ongoing share repurchases, and material efficiency gains, along with a stable or improving housing/DIY demand environment. A 350 target would reflect gradual multiple expansion aided by improving ROA/ROIC profiles and continued cash generation.
    • Key drivers: Margin normalization, improved cost structure, sustainable cash returns, e-commerce and omnichannel scaling, and a favourable housing market cycle.
    • Risks: Structural competition, e-commerce disruption, macroeconomic stress reducing consumer discretionary spending, and potential debt/financing headwinds.
  1. Key Risks & Opportunities
  • Major risks
    • Negative revisions to near-term earnings momentum
    • Cadence of housing market recovery and consumer discretionary demand
    • Elevated leverage levels and interest-rate sensitivity
    • Competitive intensity in DIY/home improvement retail, including e-commerce
  • Key opportunities
    • Margin expansion through cost efficiency, supply chain optimization, and productivity gains
    • Share repurchases and capital allocation to enhance shareholder value
    • Continued omnichannel growth and improved operational leverage
  1. Investment Recommendation
  • Recommendation: Hold to overweight with a cautiously constructive tilt over a 12–24 month horizon
    • Rationale: The stock trades at a forward earnings multiple in line with peers, with solid margins and a durable cash flow profile, but the near-term EPS revisions are more negative than positive. The price targets imply meaningful upside from current levels if earnings momentum stabilizes and margins improve. The oversold technical condition in the near term could yield a short-term bounce, but the fundamental read requires confirmation via improving revisions and sustainable margin trajectory.
    • Time horizon: 12–24 months
    • Expected return potential: Potentially mid-to-high single-digit to low-teens percentage return if the median target of 283 is reached and the earnings trajectory stabilizes; higher upside toward the high target (325) is contingent on more favorable macro and company-specific catalysts.

Appendix: Data references used

  • Price targets and consensus data
    • Current price: 241.67
    • Target Low: 221.00
    • Target Median: 283.00
    • Target High: 325.00
    • Number of analysts: 32
    • Target Mean: 283.16
  • Valuation metrics and balance sheet
    • Market cap: $136.07B
    • Enterprise value: $171.99B
    • Trailing P/E: 19.83x
    • Forward P/E: 19.13x
    • Price-to-book: -11.89
    • Debt: $39.09B; Cash: $5.26B
    • Dividend yield: 1.95%; Five-year avg: 1.71%
    • Beta: 0.88
  • Earnings/Revenue snapshot
    • Latest quarterly (2025-07-31): Diluted EPS 4.27; Net Income $2.398B; EBITDA $4.026B; Revenue $23.96B
    • Prior quarters show EPS in the low-to-mid 2s, with a spike in 2025-07-31
  • EPS trends and revisions
    • Trailing 0q EPS around 3.0 per quarter; 0y EPS around 12.32; +1y EPS around 13.33
    • Revision balance shows more recent downgrades than upgrades (negative near-term revisions)
  • Technical indicators (last 60 days)
    • 50-day MA around 253.5 as of early October 2025
    • RSI in the 5–7 range most recently (deeply oversold)
    • MACD negative, indicating current momentum remains bearish

If you’d like, I can attach the exact numeric tables for each section (e.g., expanded earnings table, EPS revision table, and the MA/RSI/MACD data) or export a clean PDF/Markdown report with the three trendlines embedded as visuals.

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