Eli Lilly and Company Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).

Comprehensive Price Target Analysis for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Date: 2025-10-10

Notes on price-target drawing

  • Horizontal trendlines were drawn for the three price targets using the provided levels:
    • Low Target: 650 (color: DodgerBlue)
    • Median Target: 895 (color: Green)
    • High Target: 1190 (color: OrangeRed)
  • Lines extend 30 days into the future from today (to 2025-11-09) on the active price chart.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Lilly (LLY) sits at the intersection of robust gross/margin strength and a powerful growth pipeline (diabetes/obesity and newer oncology indications). The stock trades at a premium multiple, reflecting confidence in ongoing revenue expansion and a strong dividend footprint. Near-term catalysts include continued momentum in Lilly’s obesity/diabetes franchise and potential new approvals/adoption, while execution risk includes competition and elevated debt load.
  • Overall price outlook: Moderately constructive over the next 12–24 months, with potential upside if pipeline execution sustains earnings growth and if the market continues to value Lilly’s growth optionality. The current price (~$855) sits below street-high targets and near the median analyst target, suggesting modest upside under base-case scenarios but compelling upside if catalysts hit.

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation and Financial Health

  • Current price (approx): 855.35
  • Market cap: 766.78B; Enterprise value: 795.74B
  • Valuation multiples:
    • Trailing P/E: 55.87
    • Forward P/E: 37.75
    • Price-to-Book: 41.98
    • PEG: not provided
  • Returns and margins:
    • ROE: 86.29% (very high, indicative of capital efficiency and leverage structure)
    • ROA: 16.55%
    • Profit margins: 25.91%
    • Gross margins: 82.64%
    • Operating margins: 45.81%
  • Leverage and liquidity:
    • Debt-to-Equity: 217.89 (elevated; implies substantial leverage)
    • Total cash: ~$3.55B
    • Total debt: ~$39.98B
  • Dividend: Yield 0.71% (five-year average around 1.04%); historically a growing dividend but yield is modest vs. peers.
  • Beta: 0.461 (indicating relatively lower broad-market volatility)

Notes:

  • The high trailing P/E reflects strong growth expectations, but the stock carries meaningful debt relative to cash, suggesting a balance between leverage-driven growth and balance-sheet risk.
  • A high price-to-book and a high gross margin indicate durable profitability at scale, though the capital-intense business model (R&D spend, manufacturing, and regulatory/commercial investment) supports a higher valuation.

Earnings Analysis

Recent Earnings Summary (GAAP-like snapshots; select highlights)

  • 2025-06-30:
    • Total Revenue: $15.56B
    • Net Income (continuing ops): $5.66B
    • Diluted EPS: $6.29
    • Basic EPS: $6.30
    • EBITDA: $7.50B
    • Normalized Income: ~$5.69B
    • Notable items: Tax effects of unusual items negative; large normalization variance helps explain elevated reported EPS.
  • 2025-03-31:
    • Total Revenue: $12.76B
    • Net Income: $2.76B
    • Diluted EPS: $3.06
    • Normalized Income: ~$4.16B
  • 2024-12-31:
    • Total Revenue: $13.53B
    • Net Income: $4.41B
    • Diluted EPS: $4.88
    • Normalized Income: ~$4.90B
  • 2024-09-30:
    • Total Revenue: $11.44B
    • Net Income: $0.97B
    • Diluted EPS: $1.07
    • Normalized Income: ~$2.68B
  • 2024-06-30:
    • Total Revenue: $11.30B
    • Net Income: $2.97B
    • Diluted EPS: $3.28
    • Normalized Income: ~$3.60B
  • Observations:
    • A standout 2025-06-30 quarter shows a notably high diluted EPS of 6.29 driven by normalized income near 5.69B, aided by favorable tax effects and positive operational results. However, there are quarterly fluctuations tied to unusual items and tax effects that can temporarily swing reported earnings.
    • On a normalized basis, earnings have shown solid levels in late 2024 and early 2025, with 2025-06-30 representing a peak period; the trailing 4-quarter trend should be watched for durability.

EPS Trend

  • Trailing 0q current: 6.3413
  • +1q current: 6.9288
  • 0y (last year to date): 22.8215
  • +1y (next year proxy): 30.3863
  • Interpretation:
    • The recent quarter exhibited a meaningful uplift in EPS versus prior quarters, consistent with the normalization narrative. The 0y and +1y figures show substantial year-over-year EPS growth, driven by a combination of higher revenue and favorable mix, though some of the jump is tied to one-time or non-operating items. The trend signals continued earnings growth potential, but the sustainability of the EPS level beyond a few quarters requires watching for ongoing margin stability and revenue growth in Lilly’s core franchises.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: UpLast7Days = 1; UpLast30Days = 1; DownLast30Days = 2; DownLast7Days = 2
  • +1q: UpLast7Days = 2; UpLast30Days = 2; Down Last30Days = 1; DownLast7Days = 0
  • 0y: UpLast7Days = 2; UpLast30Days = 2; DownLast30Days = 1; DownLast7Days = 1
  • +1y: UpLast7Days = 2; UpLast30Days = 3; DownLast30Days = 2; DownLast7Days = 2
  • Interpretation:
    • Overall, revisions skew modestly positive in the 1-year horizon and neutral-to-positive for longer horizons, suggesting analysts have been nudging expectations higher in the near-to-medium term while balancing uncertainties in the near term. This aligns with a constructive but cautious earnings trajectory.

Technical Analysis

Current price action and key levels

  • Stock price: ~$855 as of 2025-10-09
  • 50-day moving average (recent): ~$737 (range around $733–$772 in late Aug–Oct 2025)
  • Price relative to 50-day MA: Price is well above the 50-day MA, indicating bullish momentum on a short-to-intermediate horizon.
  • RSI (14, last reported 2025-10-09): 76.1 (overbought territory)
  • MACD (12,26,9, last 2025-10-09): MACD 29.3, Signal 19.3 (bullish momentum, though MACD levels are elevated)

Interpretation:

  • The stock is in a strong uptrend with price well above the 50-day MA, supported by robust momentum signals (high RSI, strong MACD). However, the RSI at 76 suggests near-term overbought conditions which could increase the risk of a pause or consolidation in the near term.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Analyst coverage and targets

  • Current price: 855.35
  • Number of analysts: 27
  • Target High: 1190.00
  • Target Low: 650.00
  • Target Median: 895.00
  • Target Mean: 890.89

Implications:

  • The distribution shows a modest upside to the median target (~895, ~4.6% above current) and a substantial upside to the high target (~1190, ~39% above current). The low target (~650) indicates downside risk under more pessimistic scenarios. The mean target (~890.89) is very close to the median, suggesting consensus around a modest upside to the mid-point.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: ~895 (median)
  • Justification:
    • Near-term momentum from recent earnings strength and favorable margins.
    • Analyst revisions show a tilt toward modest upgrades in the +1y horizon with a mixed near-term signal, but the catalysts (pipeline progress, adoption of obesity/diabetes therapies) support continued earnings growth.
    • Key drivers: continued uptake of Lilly’s diabetes/obesity franchise, cost discipline, and potential near-term pipeline announcements.
  • Key drivers: Earnings trajectory, competitive positioning in diabetes/obesity, clinical/regulatory updates.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target range: 900–1000 (base-case leaning toward the median target of 895 with upside optionality)
  • Justification:
    • If Lilly sustains revenue growth across its core franchises and operational margins remain resilient, multiple expansion toward the forward P/E range (37–40x) could support a move toward the low-to-mid 900s, with potential to approach 1000 as earnings compound.
    • Drivers: Ongoing revenue growth from GLP-1/diabetes obesity portfolio, potential product launches or approvals, and continued margin expansion.
  • Risks: Competition in obesity therapeutics, regulatory hurdles, and macro weakness could cap upside.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target range: 1000–1200+ (up to the top analyst target, ~1190)
  • Justification:
    • Sustained growth in Lilly’s obesity/diabetes franchise, plus potential upside from oncology and other therapeutic areas, could push valuations higher if pipeline success translates into durable earnings growth and capital returns.
    • Drivers: Regulatory success for pipeline assets, stronger adoption of existing blockbusters, and ongoing efficiency improvements.
  • Risks: Execution risk in accelerating new product adoption, competition, and macro-level financial headwinds; high leverage remains a structural consideration.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Balance sheet: Elevated debt-to-equity (218) and sizable total debt ($40B) contrast with modest cash (~$3.5B). Interest costs and refinancing risk could weigh on cash flow.
    • Valuation: High trailing P/E (~56x) and rich price-to-book reflect growth expectations; disappointment in pipeline performance or slower-than-expected obesity/GLP-1 uptake could compress multiple.
    • Regulatory/competitive risk: The obesity/diabetes space is highly competitive; developments by peers (e.g., Novo, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 lineup) can alter market share and pricing dynamics.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Margin resilience: Very high gross margins (82.6%) and solid operating margins (~45.8%) provide a strong cushion for R&D investment and potential M&A in growth areas.
    • Pipeline optionality: Lilly’s growth trajectory hinges on pipeline success across diabetes/obesity and oncology. Positive trial results or broader label expansions could unlock substantial upside.
    • Dividend stability: While current yield is modest, Lilly’s dividend policy supports steady income for long-term holders as earnings compound.

Investment Recommendation

  • Overall call: Hold to Moderate Buy with a 12–24 month horizon.
  • Rationale:
    • Valuation is rich, supported by strong margin structure and a robust product pipeline, but debt level and a high trailing multiple temper near-term enthusiasm. Targeted upside exists: mid-term appreciation toward the median/mean analyst targets ($895–$900) provides a modest upside (4–6%), while the high target ($1190) implies meaningful upside (+39%) if Lilly executes on its growth trajectory and gains incremental adoption of its key therapies.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months):
    • Base-case: ~5–12% upside to the $890–$930 range as earnings compound and multiples normalize.
    • Bull-case: 25–40% upside if the high target (~$1190) becomes achievable through sustained pipeline success and favorable market conditions.
    • Bear-case: Potential decline of ~5–10% if near-term momentum falters or if debt-related headwinds intensify or if competition ramps up sharply.

Appendix: Numerical Reference Tables

Valuation Snapshot

  • Current price: 855.35
  • Market cap: 766,784,307,200
  • Enterprise value: 795,744,206,848
  • Trailing P/E: 55.86871
  • Forward P/E: 37.74713
  • PEG: N/A
  • Price-to-Book: 41.980366
  • ROE: 0.86291003 (86.29%)
  • ROA: 0.16553 (16.55%)
  • Profit margins: 0.25911 (25.91%)
  • Gross margins: 0.82638 (82.64%)
  • Operating margins: 0.45805 (45.81%)
  • Debt-to-Equity: 217.891
  • Total cash: 3,545,999,872 (~$3.55B)
  • Total debt: 39,980,998,656 (~$39.98B)
  • Dividend yield: 0.71%
  • Five-year avg dividend yield: 1.04%
  • Beta: 0.461

Analyst Targets

  • Current price: 855.35
  • Analysts: 27
  • Target High: 1190.00
  • Target Median: 895.00
  • Target Mean: 890.88965
  • Target Low: 650.00

Earnings Snapshot (Selected)

  • 2025-06-30: Revenue 15.56B; Net Income (continuing ops) 5.66B; Diluted EPS 6.29; Basic EPS 6.30; EBITDA 7.50B; Normalized Income ~5.69B
  • 2025-03-31: Revenue 12.76B; Net Income 2.76B; Diluted EPS 3.06
  • 2024-12-31: Revenue 13.53B; Net Income 4.41B; Diluted EPS 4.88
  • 2024-09-30: Revenue 11.44B; Net Income 0.97B; Diluted EPS 1.07
  • 2024-06-30: Revenue 11.30B; Net Income 2.97B; Diluted EPS 3.28

EPS Trend (Current to +1y)

  • 0q: 6.3413 (current); 6.3714 (7d ago); 6.3656 (30d); 6.2745 (60d); 6.1438 (90d)
  • +1q: 6.9288; 6.9484; 6.9217; 6.9128; 6.7901
  • 0y: 22.8215; 22.8518; 22.8369; 22.6854; 21.7728
  • +1y: 30.3863; 30.3625; 30.3297; 30.1732; 29.6242

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: UpLast7Days 1; UpLast30Days 1; DownLast30Days 2; DownLast7Days 2
  • +1q: UpLast7Days 2; UpLast30Days 2; DownLast30Days 1; DownLast7Days 0
  • 0y: UpLast7Days 2; UpLast30Days 2; DownLast30Days 1; DownLast7Days 1
  • +1y: UpLast7Days 2; UpLast30Days 3; DownLast30Days 2; DownLast7Days 2

50-Day Moving Average (Selected recent)

  • As of 2025-10-09: Close 855.3; MA 50-day ~ 740.9

RSI (14) – Latest

  • 2025-10-09: RSI 76.1 (overbought)

MACD (12,26,9) – Latest

  • 2025-10-09: MACD 29.3; Signal 19.3 (bullish momentum)

Final note

  • The drawn trendlines depict potential upside/downside scenarios based on consensus price targets. The lines provide a visual framework for evaluating risk-reward relative to current price action and the growth outlook embedded in Lilly’s pipeline and earnings trajectory.

If you’d like, I can add a comparison table against peer names (e.g., Novo Nordisk NDLS, Merck MRK, Amgen AMGN) or build a scenario model with probability-weighted outcomes around catalysts (trial results, approvals) to refine the 12–24 month return range.

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