Eli Lilly and Company Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).

Back to Analysis Hub

Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), incorporating the price targets you provided, the latest market data, earnings/EPS data, and the technicals. I also included the horizontal price-target lines (Low, Median, High) drawn on the chart as requested.

Drawing summary (price level lines)

  • Low Target: $650.00 — color: green (#32CD32)
    • Line from today 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target: $875.00 — color: blue (#1E90FF)
    • Line from today 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • High Target: $1190.00 — color: orange-red (#FF4500)
    • Line from today 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

Note: Lines were created with p1 at 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00 and p2 at 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, ticker LLY.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Eli Lilly (LLY) remains a high-quality pharmaceutical franchise with strong profitability, a robust product portfolio, and compelling growth prospects driven by late-stage pipeline and potential obesity/metabolic therapies. The stock trades at a premium multiple, reflecting performance and pipeline confidence, but offers meaningful upside if earnings momentum continues.
  • Price action context: The stock sits at 845.05, with a 50-day moving average around 736.6 (bullish positioning well above the MA), RSI near 69.8 (recently approaching overbought territory), and a positive MACD setup. The price-to-earnings multiple (forward P/E ~37.3) supports modest to high-teen percent earnings-driven upside if growth remains above consensus.
  • Potential upside: The Street’s high target of 1190 implies roughly +40% upside from the current price, while the median target sits near 875 (implying +3.5% to +4% upside). The current near-term risk is balanced by strong profitability and earnings resilience, but multiple compression or execution risk remains possible in a high-valuation name.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key valuation and quality metrics
    • Market Cap: $757.6B
    • Enterprise Value: $795.1B
    • Trailing P/E: 55.23
    • Forward P/E: 37.29
    • Price to Book: 41.47
    • ROE: 86.29%
    • ROA: 16.55%
    • Profit Margin: 25.91%
    • Gross Margin: 82.64%
    • Operating Margin: 45.81%
    • Debt/Equity: 217.89x
    • Total Cash: ~$3.55B
    • Total Debt: ~$39.98B
    • Dividend Yield: 0.71% (Five-year avg: 1.04%)
    • Beta: 0.461
  • Observations
    • Very high ROE and robust margins point to a highly efficient business with strong pricing power and scale.
    • A substantial debt load exists relative to cash, implying net leverage and potential sensitivity to interest rates; however, Lilly’s operating cash flow and profitability historically support serviceable leverage.
    • The stock is richly valued on a traditional P/E basis (trailing > forward), so upside is more dependent on continued earnings expansion and pipeline success rather than multiple expansion alone.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

  • 2025-06-30 (latest quarter in the data)
    • Normalized Income: $5.693B
    • Net Income (Continuing Ops): $5.660B
    • EBITDA: $7.504B
    • EBITDA vs. Net Income reflects strong operating performance after adjustments for unusual items
    • Diluted EPS: $6.29; Basic EPS: $6.30
    • Total Revenue (Operating Revenue): $15.558B
  • Q/Q and Y/Y context
    • Normalized Income shows a rising trend across the reported periods (2025-03: $4.158B vs 2025-06: $5.693B; 2024 periods lower), suggesting improving core profitability even after adjustments.
    • Total Revenue rose meaningfully to $15.56B in 2025-06 from $12.73B in 2025-03 and $11.34B–$11.39B in late-2024 periods, indicating solid top-line growth.
  • EPS Trends (recent trajectory)
    • Current 0q: Diluted EPS 6.3538; 7 days ago: 6.3656; 30 days ago: 6.3656; 60 days ago: 6.1259; 90 days ago: 6.1342
    • +1q (next quarter): 6.9266; 7d ago: 6.9217; 30d ago: 6.9217; 60d ago: 6.9027; 90d ago: 6.7936
    • 0y (last twelve months): 22.8279; 7d ago: 22.8447; 30d ago: 22.8369; 60d ago: 21.9498; 90d ago: 21.7839
    • +1y (next twelve months): 30.362; 7d ago: 30.3467; 30d ago: 30.3297; 60d ago: 30.1784; 90d ago: 29.6820
    • Interpretation: EPS has shown a significant uplift in the most recent periods (0q to +1q), with a rising trailing trend in the 12-month view. This aligns with stronger normalized earnings and revenue growth.
  • EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment shifts)
    • 0q: Up Last 7 days = 1; Up Last 30 days = 1; Down Last 30 days = 2; Down Last 7 days = 2
    • +1q: Up Last 7 days = 2; Up Last 30 days = 2; Down Last 30 days = 1; Down Last 7 days = 0
    • 0y: Up Last 7 days = 2; Up Last 30 days = 2; Down Last 30 days = 1; Down Last 7 days = 1
    • +1y: Up Last 7 days = 2; Up Last 30 days = 3; Down Last 30 days = 2; Down Last 7 days = 2
    • Interpretation: Net revisions have shown more upgrades than downgrades recently, especially in the farther-out horizons (+1y). This supports a constructive view on earnings trajectory, albeit with ongoing sensitivity to pipeline execution and regulatory/market dynamics.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

  • 50-day Moving Average (latest)
    • 2025-10-06: Close 845.0, MA 736.6
    • The price is well above the 50-day MA, indicating a short-to-medium-term bullish tilt.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI: 69.8 (near overbought zone but not extreme)
    • Suggests positive momentum with potential for a pullback if sentiment turns.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • Latest MACD: 22.3; Signal: 11.5
    • Positive MACD with a strong separation from the signal line supports continued upside bias, albeit with attention to potential consolidation given high reading on RSI.
  • Current price vs. key lines
    • Price ~845 is above the 50-day MA and well above the 200-day MA (not provided in the data but implied by the trend). This is consistent with a constructive intermediate-term trend.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: $845.05
  • Targets:
    • Target Low: $650.00
    • Target Median: $875.00
    • Target High: $1190.00
    • Target Mean (average): $884.48
    • Number of Analysts: 27
  • Interpretation
    • The spread from 650 to 1190 implies a wide distribution of scenarios, with a median near 875, modest upside to ~4-5% on mean target, and a material bull-case to 1190 (~40% upside).
    • The forward multiple implied by the mean/median targets versus today’s price depends on forward earnings trajectory; the forward P/E of ~37.3 suggests expectations for continued earnings growth to justify current valuation, with limited downside if the growth path remains robust.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target range: ~875-884 (Median to Mean)
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Near-term momentum supported by strong recent earnings momentum (Normalized Income up QoQ, increasing EBITDA and Net Income).
    • Technicals show the stock above the 50-day MA with a bullish MACD setup; a re-rating could occur if earnings surprises remain positive and if EPS revisions stay net-upward.
  • Risks:
    • RSI near 70 suggests potential overbought pressure; any negative earnings read or regulatory concerns could trigger a pullback toward the 50-day MA or lower price supports.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target range: roughly the current consensus mean around $884 plus potential upside toward the high target, with 900–1,000 as a reasonable base-case range given growth expectations
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Growth trajectory supported by ongoing pipeline progress, high gross margins, and strong operating leverage as revenue grows.
    • Forward P/E around 37.3 remains high; if earnings advance, multiple compression could moderate returns, but substantial earnings upside could still push price toward the mid/high-ny target range.
    • Upward EPS revisions (particularly in the +1y horizon) add support to higher price expectations.
  • Risks:
    • Any disappointment in pipeline data or slower-than-expected uptake for new products could cap upside and shift sentiment toward a more conservative multiple.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target range: High-target scenario up to $1190 (and potentially beyond if there is substantial pipeline success and market expansion)
  • Justification and drivers:
    • The 1190 price target represents a strong bull-case driven by continued earnings growth, potential expansion in obesity/metabolic indications, and durable margins.
    • Lilly’s pipeline depth and core franchises (monoclonal antibodies, biologics, early-stage assets) could support multi-year growth if key assets succeed.
  • Risks:
    • Regulatory hurdles, competitive dynamics (biosimilars and competitors), pricing pressure, and pipeline risk remain significant downside risks that could cap upside.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks
    • Pipeline execution risk; dependence on a few flagship products for a large portion of revenue.
    • Regulatory and pricing pressure in major markets; potential for slower-than-expected uptake of new therapies.
    • Heavy debt load relative to cash balances; sensitivities to interest rates and leverage costs.
    • Macro headwinds impacting healthcare demand, reimbursement, and capital markets.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Strong gross and operating margins support earnings resilience.
    • Potential upside from late-stage assets and obesity/metabolic opportunities.
    • Ongoing cost discipline and scale advantages could drive further margin expansion.
    • Positive EPS revisions trend supports continued upside surprise potential.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • The stock trades at a premium forward multiple, supported by durable profitability and a robust earnings trajectory, but valuation is elevated relative to many peers.
    • Base-case target suggests modest upside (~4–5%), with substantial upside in the high-target scenario (up to ~40%) if earnings momentum persists and pipeline assets mature.
    • Risks include multiple compression, regulatory shifts, and pipeline execution challenges; these warrant a cautious stance with selective exposure.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months)
    • Base-case (mean/median targets): roughly 4–6% upside
    • Bull-case (high target): up to ~40% upside if earnings and pipeline catalysts deliver
    • Bear-case (below-low-target): potential pullbacks if earnings or macro conditions deteriorate

Key Tables (selected data)

  • Key Metrics (as provided)
  • Earnings & EPS Trends (selected highlights)
  • EPS Revisions (selected highlights)
  • Technical Indicators (latest)
  • Analyst Targets

Key Metrics

  • currentPrice: $845.05
  • marketCap: $757,550,809,088
  • enterpriseValue: $795,142,717,440
  • trailingPE: 55.23
  • forwardPE: 37.29
  • pegRatio: not disclosed
  • priceToBook: 41.47
  • returnOnEquity: 86.29%
  • returnOnAssets: 16.55%
  • profitMargins: 25.91%
  • grossMargins: 82.64%
  • operatingMargins: 45.81%
  • debtToEquity: 217.89
  • totalCash: $3,545,999,872
  • totalDebt: $39,980,998,656
  • dividendYield: 0.71%
  • fiveYearAvgDividendYield: 1.04%
  • beta: 0.461

Analyst Targets

  • targetHighPrice: $1190.00
  • numberOfAnalystOpinions: 27
  • currentPrice: $845.05
  • targetMeanPrice: $884.48
  • targetLowPrice: $650.00
  • targetMedianPrice: $875.00

Recent Earnings Summary (selected)

  • Normalized Income (latest): $5,693,745,956.56
  • Net Income From Continuing Operation: $5,660,500,000.00
  • Diluted EPS: $6.29
  • Basic EPS: $6.30
  • Total Revenue: $15,557,000,000.00
  • EBITDA (latest): $7,503,900,000.00
  • Revenue growth observed QoQ and YoY in the period data

EPS Trend (periods)

  • 0q: current 6.35379; 7d ago 6.36556; 30d ago 6.36556; 60d ago 6.12585; 90d ago 6.13419
  • +1q: 6.9266; 7d ago 6.92173; 30d ago 6.92173; 60d ago 6.9027; 90d ago 6.79363
  • 0y: 22.82788; 7d ago 22.84465; 30d ago 22.83693; 60d ago 21.94977; 90d ago 21.78395
  • +1y: 30.362; 7d ago 30.34666; 30d ago 30.32972; 60d ago 30.17839; 90d ago 29.68204

EPS Revisions (periods)

  • 0q: upLast7days=1, upLast30days=1, downLast30days=2, downLast7Days=2
  • +1q: upLast7days=2, upLast30days=2, downLast30days=1, downLast7Days=0
  • 0y: upLast7days=2, upLast30days=2, downLast30days=1, downLast7Days=1
  • +1y: upLast7days=2, upLast30days=3, downLast30days=2, downLast7Days=2

Technical Indicators (latest)

  • 50-day MA: 736.6 (latest)
  • RSI (14): 69.8 (latest)
  • MACD: 22.3 (latest), Signal: 11.5

Analyst Targets (summary)

  • High: 1190.0
  • Median: 875.0
  • Low: 650.0
  • Mean: 884.48
  • Coverage: 27 analysts

Important caveats

  • The forward P/E multiple reflects expectations for continued earnings growth; any slowdown could compress multiples.
  • The debt level is substantial; sustained earnings growth and cash flow generation are essential to maintain balance sheet health and coverage of leverage.

If you’d like, I can convert the above into a ready-to-paste executive summary slide or export the data into a CSV for your model.

Chart is loading...