JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

Horizontal price level lines drawn

  • Low Target: 235.00
    • Line drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (extend 30 days) in color #FF8C8C
    • Line ID: d61c301e52914010b9bc4321f031b62e
  • Median Target: 330.00
    • Line drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (extend 30 days) in color #6A5ACD
    • Line ID: 1c23183d206348148704edb4dbed04b0
  • High Target: 370.00
    • Line drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (extend 30 days) in color #FFA500
    • Line ID: 080a0caf8e5541439516909d965f62f9

Comprehensive Price Target Analysis for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) As of 2025-10-10

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: JPM remains a high-quality, globally diversified financial franchise with strong capital generation, solid profitability, and ample liquidity. The stock trades at a modest multiple given its robust margins, substantial cash balance, and consistent dividend policy. The market has priced in gradual normalization of NII growth and stable cost control, with upside potential from buybacks and better-than-expected earnings momentum.
  • Near-term price outlook: Moderately constructive, with a base case around the mid-300s driven by earnings momentum and continued capital returns. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average, but near-term momentum is nuanced by RSI readings in the lower range and MACD near-neutral to slightly negative on recent data.
  • Key upside/downside: The provided target set (Low 235, Median 330, High 370) implies potential upside to the median and high targets if earnings momentum and NII prospects hold, but a material macro or credit cycle deterioration could drive downside toward the low target.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and market position
    • Current price: 305.53
    • Market cap: 840.13B
    • Enterprise value: 484.00B
    • Trailing P/E: 15.68; Forward P/E: 18.25
    • Price-to-Book: 2.49
    • Dividend yield: 1.97% (five-year avg: 2.50%)
    • Beta: 1.13
    • Net balance sheet: Total cash ~1.537T vs Total debt ~1.165T; net cash position ~+0.372T (positive liquidity cushion)
  • Financial health indicators
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 16.2%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 1.3%
    • Profit margins: ~34.5%
    • Operating margins: ~43.75%
    • Gross margins: reported as 0.0 in the provided data (likely an artifact; JPM typically reports gross margins encompassing a broad set of banking activities; focus on operating and net margins here)
    • Cash/debt dynamics and liquidity support ongoing flexibility for buybacks and capital returns
  • Growth and leverage
    • With substantial cash and modest leverage in the context of a large global franchise, JPM has capacity for buybacks, debt reduction if desired, and continued dividend growth potential. The balance sheet is robust, supporting earnings resilience through cycles.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent earnings summary (selected highlights)
    • Total revenue (latest period in the dataset): 44.882B
    • Net income from continuing operations: 14.987B
    • Net income: 14.987B
    • Diluted EPS: 5.24; Basic EPS: 5.25
    • Diluted shares: ~2.7937B
    • Normalized income (approximate): 14.95B
    • Key expense lines (SG&A, salaries, etc.) reflect ongoing cost discipline in a large franchise
  • EPS Trend
    • 0q (most recent): Diluted EPS 5.24; Basic EPS 5.25
    • 7 days ago: Diluted EPS 4.76; (periodic number suggests near-term print variability)
    • 0y: Diluted EPS 19.65; (indicative of trailing-year run-rate; strong multi-quarter context)
    • +1y: Diluted EPS 20.98; (12-month forward view; improving trend)
    • Takeaway: The quarter-to-quarter EPS print shows a solid near-term print (about 4.87 in the latest quarterly measure) against a higher year-over-year base when annualized; the company’s earnings power remains resilient, with a meaningful multi-quarter uplift on a yearly basis.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q: Up last7d = 2, Up last30d = 5, Down last30d = 1, Down last7d = 2
    • +1q: Up last7d = 3, Up last30d = 3, Down last30d = 1, Down last7d = 1
    • 0y: Up last7d = 3, Up last30d = 3, Down last30d = 1, Down last7d = 1
    • +1y: Up last7d = 4, Up last30d = 6, Down last30d = 0, Down last7d = 0
    • Interpretation: Recent sentiment shows net upgrades across 30- and 12-month horizons, with +1y revisions skewed towards upgrades. The 30-day revision data indicate rising optimism in earnings potential.
  • Earnings quality
    • Revenue growth: Stable to slightly expanding quarterly revenue near 44.9-45.3B range across the latest periods, suggesting a durable revenue base from diversified financial services.
    • Profitability: High operating margins (~43.75%) with meaningful net margins (~34.5%) indicate earnings durability even as interest rate and credit cycles evolve.
    • Earnings sustainability: Normalized earnings around 14.9-15.0B with mid-teens ROEs point to sustainable profitability and capacity for continued capital returns.

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action
    • The price (305.53) sits above the 50-day moving average (approx. 299.8, latest data point).
    • 50-day MA rising trend supports a mild near-term bullish tilt.
  • Moving averages
    • 50-day MA: ~299.8, suggesting near-term support just below current price.
  • RSI (14)
    • Latest RSI around the mid-30s (e.g., 34.0 on 2025-10-09), indicating modest near-term momentum and potential for a relief rally rather than overbought pressure.
  • MACD (12,26,9)
    • MACD around 1.8 with a down-tilt toward the Signal line (3.2 on latest data). The MACD is negative relative to the signal, suggesting current momentum is modestly bearish, though not decisively so. The nearby price above the 50-day MA provides a potential for near-term bounce if macro/earnings momentum improves.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current consensus metrics
    • Current price: 305.53
    • Number of analysts: 23
    • Target Low / Median / High: 235.0 / 330.0 / 370.0
    • Target Mean: 321.04
  • Interpretation
    • The consensus spread is wide (235–370), with a median at 330 and a mean around 321, which is modestly above today’s price.
    • The stock appears undervalued versus the median target and is approaching the lower end of the range if macro headwinds intensify, but has potential upside toward the median/high targets if earnings momentum and rate outlook remain favorable.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Inputs used: Low 235.00, Median 330.00, High 370.00; current price ~305.53
  • Short-Term (3 months): Target around 330 (Median)
    • Rationale: Near-term EPS momentum remains positive, with EPS revisions showing net upgrades in the last 30 days and last year. 50-day MA support + modest RSI positioning supports continued near-term price appreciation toward the median level.
    • Drivers: Stable revenue base, ongoing cost discipline, net interest income trajectory, continued capital returns, favorable revisions.
    • Potential return (vs current price): approximately +8% to +12% toward 330, depending on macro conditions and earnings execution.
  • Mid-Term (12 months): Target around 370 (High)
    • Rationale: If earnings revisions continue to skew upward and credit/macro environment stays supportive, multiple expansion toward the high target is plausible as risk sentiment improves and JPM maintains strong profitability.
    • Drivers: Further NII normalization, continued cost control, capital return programs, buybacks, and solid risk management.
    • Potential return: approximately +21% to +25% toward 370, assuming earnings momentum and favorable macro backdrop.
  • Long-Term (3+ years): Target scenario around 235 (Low)
    • Rationale: A longer horizon can see pressure from macro headwinds, credit cycle stress, and valuation normalization if interest rate dynamics or inflation environment shift unfavorably; this represents a downside scenario rather than the base case.
    • Drivers: Credit cycle shocks, regulatory constraints, persistent margin pressure in a rate-slowing environment, competition, and higher cost of capital.
    • Potential return: -23% from current price toward 235, in a downside scenario.
  • Summary table
    • Target Low: 235.00
    • Target Median: 330.00
    • Target High: 370.00
    • Current price: 305.53
    • Implied upside/downside (vs current):
      • To Low: -23%
      • To Median: +8% to +12% (depending on path)
      • To High: +21% to +25%

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Macro deterioration and rising credit losses in commercial/retail loan books.
    • Prolonged higher-for-longer rates constraining NII growth.
    • Regulatory changes affecting capital requirements or consumer banking profitability.
    • Macro volatility impacting trading/revenue mix (less favorable for investment banking/trading margins).
  • Key opportunities
    • Strong capital position enabling buybacks and higher dividend sustainability.
    • Operational efficiency improvements across large-scale operations.
    • Positive earnings revisions trend and potential upside from rate normalization benefiting NII.
    • Ongoing diversification into wealth management and payments with scalable platforms.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Rationale: JPM trades with solid profitability, a robust balance sheet, and a favorable long-term outlook, but near-term momentum is mixed (RSI in the 30s, MACD below the signal). Valuation is reasonable, with meaningful upside potential to the median/high targets if earnings momentum sustains and macro conditions improve. Downside risk exists if credit losses rise or rate dynamics shift unfavorably.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months):
    • Base case: roughly 8%–12% to 330 (mid-range target) if momentum continues.
    • Bull case: ~21%–25% to 370 if earnings revisions stay positive and multiple expansion occurs.
    • Bear case: potential downside toward 235 if macro and credit conditions deteriorate.
    • Overall, a measured hold with upside optionality on a path to stronger earnings and rate normalization.

Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and EPS Revisions — Key Referenced Data

  • Earnings summary highlights
    • Net income (continuing operations): 14.987B (2025-06-30)
    • Total revenue: 44.882B (latest quarterly figure)
    • Diluted EPS: 5.24; Basic EPS: 5.25
    • Net income: 14.987B
    • Normalized income: approx. 14.95B
  • EPS Trend notes
    • 0q current EPS: 4.87061
    • 7 days ago: 4.76009 (short-term variation)
    • 0y (trailing twelve months): 19.64623
    • +1y (forward trailing twelve months): 20.98021
    • Interpretation: Near-term EPS prints around 4.8–5.0 per share, with multi-quarter trailing EPS in the high teens to low 20s range. The trend shows maintenance of earnings power with positive year-over-year growth when annualized.
  • EPS Revisions (counts of upgrades/downgrades)
    • 0q: Up Last7d 2, UpLast30d 5, DownLast30d 1, DownLast7d 2
    • +1q: Up Last7d 3, UpLast30d 3, DownLast30d 1, DownLast7d 1
    • 0y: Up Last7d 3, UpLast30d 3, DownLast30d 1, DownLast7d 1
    • +1y: Up Last7d 4, UpLast30d 6, DownLast30d 0, DownLast7d 0
    • Interpretation: A trend toward more upgrades in the 30-day and 1-year windows suggests rising analyst confidence in JPM’s earnings trajectory.

Appendix: Technical Indicators (Summary)

  • 50-day Moving Average (last value around 299.8)
    • Price near 305.5, trading above the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term bullish tilt with a potential pullback supported around 300 if volatility increases.
  • RSI (14) — latest around 34.0 (mid/low 30s region)
    • Indicates modest oversold pressure and potential for a bounce if momentum improves.
  • MACD (12,26,9) — latest MACD around 1.8; Signal around 3.2
    • MACD currently below the signal line, signaling a soft near-term bearish momentum; divergence could reverse with favorable earnings momentum or rate moves.

Tables and references (selected data)

  • Analyst Targets and current price
    • Current price: 305.53
    • Number of analysts: 23
    • Target Low/Median/High: 235.0 / 330.0 / 370.0
    • Target Mean: 321.04
  • Fundamental metrics
    • Market cap: 840.13B
    • EV: 484.00B
    • Trailing P/E: 15.68; Forward P/E: 18.25
    • P/B: 2.49
    • ROE: 16.21%; ROA: 1.30%
    • Profit margins: 34.52%; Operating margins: 43.75%
    • Total cash: 1.537T; Total debt: 1.165T; Net cash: ~+372B
    • Dividend yield: 1.97%; Five-year avg: 2.50%
  • EPS trend and revisions
    • 0q EPS: 4.87061; +1q: 4.76009; 0y: 19.64623; +1y: 20.98021
    • EPS revisions (up/down counts):
      • 0q: ups 2 / ups 5 / downs 1 / downs 2
      • +1q: ups 3 / ups 3 / downs 1 / downs 1
      • 0y: ups 3 / ups 3 / downs 1 / downs 1
      • +1y: ups 4 / ups 6 / downs 0 / downs 0

If you’d like, I can export the above analysis into a shareable PDF or HTML report, or tailor the price-target narrative to specific investor personas (growth, value, or income-focused).

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