JPMorgan Chase & Co. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM).

Below is a comprehensive JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) analysis with the requested horizontal price-target lines drawn and a full, investor-focused review.

Drawing update

  • Horizontal trendlines drawn (extending 30 days from 2025-10-07):
    • Low Target (235.00): color green (#00FF00)
      • p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price 235
      • p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price 235
    • Median Target (330.00): color blue (#0000FF)
      • p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price 330
      • p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price 330
    • High Target (370.00): color red (#FF0000)
      • p1: 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00, price 370
      • p2: 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00, price 370

Executive summary

  • JPM remains a large-cap, highly profitable financial services franchise with a solid balance sheet, strong cash position, and a favorable, albeit modestly expanding, earnings backdrop. The current price sits near the mid- to upper end of the analyst target range, implying potential upside into the 12-month horizon if earnings momentum and multiples hold up. The line of sight to 330 (median target) suggests a modest 6–7% upside from the current price, while the high target of 370 implies potential upside toward ~20% if macro conditions, rate environment, and bank fundamentals stay favorable.

Fundamental analysis

  • Valuation and capitalization
    • Current price: 309.18
    • Market cap: 850.17B
    • Enterprise value: 500.50B
    • Trailing P/E: 15.86
    • Forward P/E: 18.47
    • Price-to-book: 2.52
    • 5-year dividend yield: 2.50% average; current yield: 1.94%
    • Beta: 1.13
  • Balance sheet and liquidity
    • Total cash: 1.5379T
    • Total debt: 1.1655T
    • Net cash positioning (approx.): roughly 0.37T
    • Leverage appears manageable for a diversified, large bank and supports ongoing buyback/dividend capacity.
  • Profitability
    • Operating margin: 43.75%
    • Net profit margin: 34.52%
    • Return on equity (ROE): 16.21%
    • Return on assets (ROA): 1.30%
    • Revenue mix shows strong net interest income (NII) contribution, offset by interest expense dynamics (typical for a bank in a rising-rate environment).
  • Cash generation and efficiency
    • Total revenue around the 44–45B range for the latest period in the provided earnings data, with normalized income showing resilience.
    • The large cash balance supports ongoing buybacks and a robust dividend policy, contributing to shareholder value.

Earnings analysis

  • Recent earnings performance
    • The latest quarterly snapshot (2025-06-30) shows Diluted EPS of 5.24 and Basic EPS of 5.25, with Net Income to common stockholders around 14.63B for that period. Annualized or trailing metrics (0y, +1y) show higher year-ago EPS levels (0y ~19.62; +1y ~20.97) suggestive of either offsetting non-operating items or different baselines in the reported figures.
    • Normalized income for the period was about 15.05B, indicating a stable core earnings level after adjustments for unusual items.
  • EPS trends
    • EPS Trend (latest period, from the data provided):
      • 0q diluted EPS: 4.8386 (recent quarter)
      • +1q diluted EPS: 4.7673
      • 0y (trailing year): 19.6175
      • +1y (previous year-ago baseline): 20.9665
    • The trend indicates solid quarterly earnings around the 4.8–5.3 range in recent quarters, with annualized/LTM figures near 19.6–21.0, consistent with a large financial services franchise delivering steady profits under a favorable rate environment.
  • EPS revisions
    • 0q revisions: up last 7 days (2), up last 30 days (5); down last 30 days (1); down last 7 days (2)
    • +1q revisions: up last 7 days (3), up last 30 days (3); down last 30 days (1); down last 7 days (1)
    • 0y revisions: up last 7 days (3), up last 30 days (3); down last 30 days (1); down last 7 days (1)
    • +1y revisions: up last 7 days (4), up last 30 days (6); down last 30 days (0); down last 7 days (0)
    • Interpretation: a net positive tilt in EPS revisions across near-term horizons (0q and +1q) and longer horizons (0y and +1y), providing a supportive backdrop for modest multiple expansion or at least continued earnings confidence among analysts.
  • Earnings quality
    • Revenue: Total revenue around 44.88B for the latest quarter in the dataset, with Interest Income around 48.24B and Interest Expense around 25.03B, yielding Net Interest Income around 23.21B. Non-interest costs (SG&A, occupancy, salaries) align with a large, well-diversified bank.
    • The mix suggests a robust NII base with stable fee-based revenue streams, supporting earnings sustainability even if rate pressures shift.

Technical analysis

  • Price action and trend context
    • Price (as of the latest data in the set): ~309.18
    • 50-day moving average (latest in the data): ~300.9 (as of 2025-10-06)
    • Price trading above the 50-day moving average suggests a short-term bullish bias, with the MA trending higher as the chart progresses.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14) recent readings in the 50s range (latest around 50.0 as of 2025-10-06), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions—range-bound near neutral.
    • MACD (12,26,9): latest values show MACD ~3.2 with a Signal of ~4.2 (on 2025-10-06). The MACD is below the signal line, indicating a near-term bearish tilt, though still within a broad positive regime given the magnitude.
  • Moving averages and trend signals
    • The 50-day MA being below the current price and trending upward supports a constructive near-term backdrop, with the caveat that MACD/Sentiment could cause pullbacks if rate expectations firm or guidance disappoints.

Analyst consensus & price targets

  • Current analyst targets
    • Target Low: 235.0
    • Target Median: 330.0
    • Target High: 370.0
    • Current price: 309.18
    • Number of analysts: 23
    • Target Mean: 319.52
  • Interpretation
    • The median target of 330 implies ~6.7% upside from current levels, while the mean target (~319.52) is slightly below the median, suggesting a few more conservative views align with the current price. The spread up to 370 indicates a non-trivial upside if JPM achieves earnings momentum and multiple expansion.
  • Potential catalysts
    • Higher net interest income in a stable to rising-rate environment
    • Cost discipline and efficiency improvements
    • Strong capital return policy (buybacks and dividends)
    • Positive revisions from sell-side analysts and guidance upgrades
    • Macro resilience in consumer/commercial banking and wealth management segments

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target range: 235 – 370; Median target 330
    • Current price 309.18; The near-term potential is modest upside to 330 (approx +6.7%) if the revisions trend remains positive and macro conditions hold. Upside risk includes near-term rate expectations, macro uncertainty, or higher provision costs.
    • Drivers: steady NII, continued fee-based revenue, and positive EPS revisions; derisk via a robust balance sheet and strong cash position.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 330 (median) with upside to 370 (high) if earnings momentum sustains and multiple expansion occurs.
    • Justification: The ongoing earnings power of JPM (driven by NII, fees, and cost discipline) alongside a healthy balance sheet supports a higher earnings base, potentially lifting earnings multiples. Analyst revisions leaning positive bolster the case for multiple expansion.
    • Drivers: continued rate environment stability, capital return, and accretive share repurchases; improving macro backdrop.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target rationale: the bank’s scale, diversified revenue streams (NII, non-interest income, wealth management), strong capital framework, and global franchise position support durable growth and earnings resilience.
    • Drivers: structural growth in fees (payments, advisory, asset management), ongoing efficiency gains, and capital return policy; potential multiple expansion if loan growth and net interest margins stabilize at elevated levels.
    • Risks: credit cycle deterioration, regulatory/regulatory-compliance costs, competitive pressures in payments/fintech, and macro shocks impacting loan performance.

Key risks & opportunities

  • Key risks
    • Credit cycle risk in commercial/consumer portfolios
    • Potential regulatory changes and higher compliance costs
    • Interest rate volatility and net interest margin pressure in stressed scenarios
    • Economic downturn or slower loan growth could compress profits
  • Key opportunities
    • Elevated interest rates in the near term providing NII uplift
    • Share repurchases and dividend growth supporting shareholder value
    • Diversified revenue streams (wealth management, payments) offering ballast during cycles
    • Leverage of technology and scale to improve efficiency and fee generation

Investment recommendation

  • Rating: Hold to cautiously constructive
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • The current price sits close to the median analyst target, with a potential ~7% upside to 330 and a larger upside to 370 if earnings momentum and multiples expand. JPM’s strong balance sheet, solid profitability metrics (ROE ~16%), substantial cash position, and positive EPS revision trend support a constructive stance.
    • Near-term risks center on MACD/sentiment dynamics and macro rate expectations; however, JPM’s franchise quality and capital returns provide downside protection.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): approximately 5–15% upside aligned with the scenario where the median target is achieved and some multiple expansion occurs; the high-target scenario could approach ~20%+ if conditions are favorable.

Key data tables (summary)

Valuation and fundamentals

  • Current price: 309.18
  • Market cap: 850.17B; EV: 500.50B
  • Trailing P/E: 15.86; Forward P/E: 18.47
  • P/B: 2.52; ROE: 16.21%; ROA: 1.30%
  • Dividend yield: 1.94% (vs. 5-year avg 2.50%)

Balance sheet and liquidity (highlights)

  • Total cash: 1.5379T
  • Total debt: 1.1655T
  • Net cash position: roughly 0.38T
  • Leverage remains conservative for JPM’s scale

Earnings snapshot (selected highlights)

  • Last reported quarter (2025-06-30): Diluted EPS 5.24; Basic EPS 5.25; Net income to common stockholders ~14.63B
  • Normalized income: ~15.05B
  • Total revenue (recent period): ~44.88B
  • Net interest income: ~23.21B
  • Operating margin: ~43.75%; Net margin: ~34.52%

EPS trends and revisions

  • EPS trend (latest periods):
    • 0q diluted EPS: ~4.84
    • +1q diluted EPS: ~4.77
    • 0y: ~19.62
    • +1y: ~20.97
  • EPS revisions (counts by period):
    • 0q: Up 2, Up 5; Down 1, Down 2
    • +1q: Up 3, Up 3; Down 1, Down 1
    • 0y: Up 3, Up 3; Down 1, Down 1
    • +1y: Up 4, Up 6; Down 0, Down 0
  • Interpretation: Net positive revisions across near-term and longer horizons support a constructive earnings backdrop.

Technical indicators (dynamic picture)

  • 50-day MA (latest): ~300.9; price ~309.2 (price above MA; MA trending higher)
  • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral, no extreme overbought/oversold signal)
  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD ~3.2 vs Signal ~4.2 (bearish cross recently; potential near-term softness)

Analyst consensus summary

  • Target Low / Median / High: 235 / 330 / 370
  • Current price: 309.18
  • Number of analysts: 23
  • Target mean: 319.52
  • Interpretation: Mixed to modestly constructive sentiment; median target implies modest upside; high target implies substantial upside under favorable conditions.

Additional notes on the price-target lines

  • The three horizontal lines (235 green, 330 blue, 370 red) provide a visual framework for downside, base-case, and upside scenarios relative to JPM’s current level. The proximity of JPM’s current price to the median target (330) supports a reiteration of a constructive stance, with optional upside above the median if earnings revisions stay positive and macro conditions support rate-sensitive banks.

If you’d like, I can:

  • Add a brief sensitivity analysis showing upside/downside if forward EPS grows at different CAGR assumptions.
  • Compare JPM to key peers (e.g., BAC, C, MS) on the same metrics to contextualize relative valuation and upside potential.
  • Provide a dashboard-style snapshot with a one-page takeaway for quick decision-making.
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