Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Technical Analysis

Price Action Analysis

Overview:

• The recent price action in JOBY exhibits a near-term pullback after a period of strength. The price sits around the low-$10s, having traded off from higher levels in the mid-$10s to the low-$11s and now around $10.57.
• The daily picture shows a sequence of down days with occasional pauses, suggesting a short-term bearish tilt but with some intraday bounces as buyers step in near support.
• On the weekly chart, the longer-term uptrend remains visible from a broader horizon, but the current price activity reflects a deeper retracement within that structural uptrend. The pullback has carved out a consolidation zone near multi-month support levels, with the potential for a mean-reversion bounce if demand returns.

Key price levels and patterns:

• Support: The immediate vicinity around $10.50–$10.70 acts as near-term support, reflecting the latest swing low and high-90s touch in the current session. The latest daily low printed around $10.49, placing the price squarely inside this support region.
• Resistance:
  • The near-term resistance cluster sits near the $11.50–$12.00 zone, where intraday rallies have previously faced selling pressure.
  • A more significant resistance zone resides near the 50-day moving average around $14.30–$14.40; crossing this area would be meaningful for restoring an upside momentum.
  • A longer-term resistance band sits higher around $16–$17 (and up toward prior swing highs), which would reflect a re-acceleration of the uptrend beyond the current consolidation.
• Volume behavior: Selling pressure has been accompanied by noticeable volume during the moves lower, with volume spikes on down days suggesting distribution. Periods of quieter volume on up days imply caution around sustaining a near-term bounce without broader participation.

Candlestick observations:

• The latest candles indicate a struggle near support, with some days showing small-bodied candles and longer lower wicks, hinting that buyers are stepping in at the lower end but sellers still dominate intraday. No definitive reversal pattern has emerged yet, so immediate follow-through to the upside is not yet guaranteed.

---

Technical Indicators

Summary readings

Indicator	Value (latest)	Interpretation	Implication
50-day Moving Average (MA)	$14.30	Price is well below the 50-day MA; MA is currently flat-to-bullish in slope but above price	Bearish in the near term; a daily close above this MA would be a meaningful bullish signal
200-day Moving Average (MA)	$13.20	Price remains well below the 200-day MA	Longer-term trend remains challenged to the upside until price recaptures this level
RSI (14)	15.4	Deeply oversold (<30)	Potential for a reflex or oversold bounce; not a confirmation of a bottom by itself
MACD (12,26,9)	MACD −0.70	Momentum negative; below signal (-0.30) with a negative histogram	Bearish momentum; reversal signal would require MACD to cross above the Signal line

Notes:

• The price is trading well under both moving averages, with the 50-day MA acting as a near-term resistance and the 200-day MA acting as a broader, longer-term benchmark.
• The RSI indicates oversold conditions, which can precede a counter-trend bounce but do not guarantee a sustained turnaround.
• The MACD remains negative, indicating ongoing downside momentum unless a bullish crossover occurs.

---

Volume & Momentum Analysis

• Short-term volume: Elevated volume on recent declines points to distribution pressure, i.e., sellers dominating the near term.
• Up-move momentum: When price has tentative rallies, volume tends to be lighter, implying weaker ownership interest unless a clear uptick in demand accompanies the move above key moving averages.
• Trend context: The weekly timeframe still shows the long-term uptrend structure, but the current price action is within a corrective phase. A sustained move back above the 50-day MA (around $14.30) would be a noteworthy acceleration of bullish momentum, provided volume supports the move.

---

Key Buy/Sell Levels

Current price: $10.57

Trendlines placed (horizontal panes around key levels and extended forward ~90 days):

• Support Zone 1: around $10.50–$10.70 (recent swing low; current price within this zone)
  • Status: Already touched/in the zone now
  • Rationale: Immediate stabilization area with documented intraday lows near $10.49
• Support Zone 2: around $9.80–$10.00
  • Status: Not touched in the latest sessions
  • Distance from current price: about $0.57–$0.77 below current price; ~5–7% lower
• Resistance Zone 1: around $11.50–$12.00
  • Status: Not yet breached on a sustained close; potential for a short-term reversal if price can hold above this zone
  • Distance from current price: ~$1.00–$1.40 above current price; ~9–13% higher
• Resistance Zone 2: around $14.30–$14.60 (the near-term moving average level)
  • Status: Not yet tested on a sustained move
  • Distance from current price: ~$3.70–$4.00 above current price; ~35–38% higher
• Resistance Zone 3: around $16–$17 (historical swing highs)
  • Status: Major resistance in the broader chart context
  • Distance from current price: ~$5.40–$6.40 above current price; ~52–61% higher

Notes on buy zones and touched status:

• Buy Zone 1 (10.40–10.60): Touched; price currently sits within this zone. If price holds here and shows bullish rejection candles with higher highs, it can be a low-risk entry around support.
• Buy Zone 2 (9.80–10.00): Not touched yet; roughly 0.60–0.80 below the current price. This would require a deeper pullback before entry but provides a potential downside cushion.
• Buy Zone 3 (12.50–12.90) and Buy Zone 4 (14.25–14.60): Not touched; these lie progressively above current price and align with moving-average resistances. Any bets here depend on first sustaining a move through the lower resistance and MA levels with volume confirmation.

Trendline logic and extension:

• The horizontal support line around 10.50–10.70 is extended forward to anticipate near-term resilience if tested again.
• The 50-day MA around 14.3–14.4 acts as a dynamic resistance anchor. A break above this level with convincing volume would shift the balance toward a more constructive outlook.
• If price climbs past 14.4 and holds, a next leg toward 16–17 becomes plausible, aligning with previous highs.

How these levels relate to reference points:

• Support at 10.5 aligns with recent intraday lows and acts as a natural test for buyers’ willingness to step in.
• The 50-day MA at 14.3–14.4 serves as a meaningful intermediate hurdle; successful penetration suggests improving trend dynamics.
• The higher resistance around 16–17 corresponds to prior swing highs, indicating zones where sellers have previously reasserted control.

---

Technical Outlook & Summary

• Near-term thesis: The stock is in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend. The immediate risk is continued pressure toward the 10.50 area, with a potential relief bounce if buyers defend that level and the price charts show constructive price action with accompanying volume.
• Key turning points:
  • First-line support tested at 10.50–10.70. A daily close above this support with increased volume would suggest stabilization and possible small rebound attempts.
  • Break above 12.00–12.50 would indicate a shift toward a shallow recovery, though momentum should confirm with higher-timeframe participation.
  • A sustained move above 14.40 would be the first major bullish confirmation, with eyes on 16–17 as the next resistance belt.
• Indicator-driven view:
  • Oversold RSI suggests a potential counter-trend bounce, but a reversal would need MACD momentum to turn positive and price to reclaim the 50-day MA with convincing volume.
  • Bearish MACD remains a headwind in the near term unless a bullish cross occurs and price action closes above the moving averages.
• Practical takeaway:
  • If you’re considering a tactical entry, a cautious approach around the current support (10.50–10.70) with bullish confirmation (e.g., a bullish candle with higher-than-average volume, followed by a daily close above 11.20–11.50) could offer a favorable risk-reward.
  • Conversely, failure to hold 10.50 could expose the downside toward the next support level (not explicitly defined here by chart data, but a deeper pullback would be necessary to be assessed with updated price action).

If you’d like, I can place specific, live-anchored trendlines as horizontal lines at these levels and extend them forward by about 90 days to visualize potential future interactions, and I can update the buy-zone metrics as price action evolves.