Johnson & Johnson Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Here is a comprehensive Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) analysis with the requested price targets drawn and a detailed, investor-focused narrative. Price targets are based on the Low, Median, and High targets you provided and are extended 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-07) as requested.

Pricing lines drawn

  • Low Target line at 155.0 (blue)
  • Median Target line at 185.0 (orange)
  • High Target line at 212.0 (green)

Technical drawing confirmation:

  • Right-edge extension date: 2025-11-06
  • Ticker: JNJ

Fundamental snapshot (latest data)

  • Current price: 188.16
  • Market cap: 453.15B
  • Enterprise value: 486.19B
  • Valuation multiples: Trailing P/E 20.15; Forward P/E 17.75; P/B 5.77
  • Profitability and margins: Net margin ~25.0%, Gross margin ~68.4%, Operating margin ~28.9%
  • Returns: ROE ~30.2%, ROA ~7.6%
  • Leverage and liquidity: Debt/Equity ~64.7%, Total cash ~18.88B, Total debt ~50.76B
  • Dividend: Yield ~2.76% (5-year avg ~2.8%)
  • Beta: 0.392 (defensive, low beta)
  • Note: JNJ shows a strong, diversified cash-generating business with a long history of resilient cash flow and a prominent dividend.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: JNJ remains a diversified, high-quality healthcare conglomerate with strong cash flow, defensiveness, and a robust dividend. The current price around 188 sits near the consensus target mean and slightly above the median target, while the high target implies meaningful upside under favorable macro and product-cycle conditions. Given a solid balance sheet and resilient margins, the stock is better viewed as a quality core holding with modest upside in the baseline scenario and higher upside if evaluation multiple expansion and/or meaningful product pipeline catalysts materialize.
  • Outlook: Neutral-to-bullish bias on a 12–24 month horizon, with potential upside if multiple expands toward the high target and if earnings power remains durable given ongoing cost discipline and share repurchases.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation metrics
    • Trailing P/E: 20.15
    • Forward P/E: 17.75
    • Price-to-Book: 5.77
    • Dividend yield: 2.76% (vs. 5-year avg 2.80%)
  • Financial health
    • ROE: ~30.2% (high, reflecting strong profitability)
    • ROA: ~7.6%
    • Debt/Equity: ~64.7% (still manageable for a diversified, cash-generative business)
    • Cash position: ~$18.9B; Total debt: ~$50.8B
    • Margins: Net margin ~25.0%; Gross margin ~68.4%; Operating margin ~28.9%
  • Market position and balance sheet: JNJ’s diversified portfolio (pharma, medical devices, consumer health) supports durable cash flows and resilience to cyclicality in any single segment. The balance sheet remains solid, with liquidity to fund ongoing buybacks and dividends.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (quarterly snapshot)

  • 2025-06-30
    • Total Revenue: ~$23.74B
    • EBITDA: ~$8.74B
    • Operating Income: ~$6.80B
    • Gross Profit: ~$16.12B
    • Net Income (continuing operations): ~$5.54B
    • Diluted EPS: $2.29
    • Normalized Income: ~$5.93B
    • Unusual items: Net unusual items negative (~$0.46B), which may reflect one-time adjustments
  • 2025-03-31
    • Total Revenue: ~$21.89B
    • EBITDA: ~$15.61B
    • Operating Income: ~$13.83B
    • Gross Profit: ~$14.54B
    • Net Income: ~$11.00B
    • Diluted EPS: ~$4.54
    • Normalized Income: ~$5.44B
    • Unusual items: Positive notable items around this period contributing to GAAP uplift
  • 2024-12-31
    • Total Revenue: ~$22.52B
    • EBITDA: ~$5.92B
    • Operating Income: ~$4.02B
    • Gross Profit: ~$15.38B
    • Net Income: ~$3.43B
    • Diluted EPS: ~$1.41
    • Normalized Income: ~$3.48B
  • 2024-09-30
    • Total Revenue: ~$22.47B
    • EBITDA: ~$5.38B
    • Operating Income: ~$3.53B
    • Gross Profit: ~$15.51B
    • Net Income: ~$2.69B
    • Diluted EPS: ~$1.11
    • Normalized Income: ~$3.10B
  • 2024-06-30
    • Total Revenue: ~$22.45B
    • EBITDA: ~$7.80B
    • Operating Income: ~$6.66B
    • Gross Profit: ~$15.56B
    • Net Income: ~$4.69B
    • Diluted EPS: ~$1.93
    • Normalized Income: ~$5.89B
  • 2024-03-31
    • Total Revenue: ~$22.47B
    • EBITDA: ~$7.80B
    • Operating Income: ~$6.02B
    • Gross Profit: ~$15.58B
    • Net Income: ~$4.69B
    • Diluted EPS: ~$1.93
    • Normalized Income (approx.): ~$5.89B Notes on earnings: The data shows substantial quarterly EPS divergence between Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, driven in part by one-time/unusual items and potentially large GAAP adjustments. Normalized income figures point to a more stable earnings baseline around the mid-$5B range each quarter, with GAAP EPS impacted by unusual items in some periods. Overall trend suggests solid operating profitability with occasional GAAP volatility due to non-operating or unusual items.

EPS Trend

  • Current quarter (0q): EPS 2.753
  • 7 days ago: 2.752
  • 30 days ago: 2.750
  • 60 days ago: 2.749
  • 90 days ago: 2.695
  • +1q: EPS 2.566 (recent quarter), 2.564–2.566 range around that period
  • 0y: Trailing annual EPS around 10.85
  • +1y: Forward-looking annual EPS around 11.38 Takeaway: The near-term EPS (quarterly) sits in the mid-2s, while the trailing annualized EPS has trended around 11+, reflecting the multi-year profitability base. The YoY comparison shows normalization toward mid- to high-single-digit growth, with blended performance influenced by uneven quarterly items.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: Up revisions last 7d: 0; last 30d: 1; Down last 30d: 0; Down last 7d: 1
  • +1q: Up last 7d: 1; last 30d: 1; Down last 30d: 1; Down last 7d: 0
  • 0y: Up last 7d: 2; last 30d: 2; Down last 30d: 1; Down last 7d: 0
  • +1y: Up last 7d: 2; last 30d: 3; Down last 30d: 1; Down last 7d: 0 Interpretation: EPS revisions show a tilt toward upward revisions over longer horizons (+1y, 0y) with occasional short-term downgrades in the 0q window, consistent with a supplier/portfolio mix that can surprise on the upside when new products or cost actions land as expected.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action: Trading near 188.16 with recent RSI readings indicating overbought territory (RSI around 75–76 in late July to early October 2025 sample) and MACD positive momentum (MACD line above Signal line across the recent data).
  • Moving averages: 50-day MA has risen but remains below the current price, suggesting near-term strength. The last 50-day MA reading shows a rising trend (approximate late-September/early-October values around the mid-170s, with price above the MA).
  • RSI: Elevated in the 70s to mid-70s range in recent data, signaling potential near-term overbought risk but not an immediate sell signal given fundamental quality and a strong dividend.
  • MACD: Positive and generally strengthening, indicating upside momentum has persisted through recent price action.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Target Low / Median / High: 155 / 185 / 212
  • Current price: 188.16
  • Number of analysts: 23
  • Target Mean Price: 184.56 Notes:
  • The median target (185) sits just below the current price, implying a mild consolidation or slight near-term pullback could be considered fair in a vanilla scenario.
  • The High target (212) points to meaningful upside if JNJ sustains momentum and broader-market sentiment remains constructive or if multiple expansion occurs alongside durable earnings.
  • With 23 analysts, the breadth of coverage is solid, though variance in opinion exists given the sizable GAAP vs. normalized earnings dispersion in recent quarters.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: around 185 (median)
  • Justification:
    • Valuation remains fair-to-premium given JNJ’s stability, but near-term upside is modest if the stock consolidates around the current level post-earnings volatility.
    • Key drivers: continued cash generation, steady dividend yield, mix of stable consumer health and medical devices performance, and resilience to macro shocks.
    • Risks: near-term macro headwinds or a stronger-than-expected pullback in defensive sectors, and any material negative surprises from one of the major segments.
  • Target range rationale: The 3-month target sits near the median (185), with a potential bias toward the lower end given current price above the median target.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: around 185–190 (with upside optionality)
  • Justification:
    • More time for normalization in GAAP earnings and continued execution of cost controls and share repurchases.
    • Durable cash flow supports dividend continuity and buybacks, which can support price support even if EPS normalization is gradual.
    • Catalyst scenario to push toward the high target: a favorable regulatory/market environment, continued product cycle success in devices/pharma, and potential strategic actions that lift margins.
    • Risks: if the market remains choppy or if multiple expansion is capped by broader sector valuations, the mean/median targets offer a modest upside scenario.
  • Target range rationale: 12-month mean around 184.56 with the potential to test higher levels toward the high target if conditions are favorable.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 210–230 (high-certainty upside in a constructive scenario)
  • Justification:
    • Structural advantages of a diversified healthcare behemoth: consistent cash flow, strong balance sheet, and continued dividend growth, along with ongoing efficiency efforts and potential new product launches or acquisitions.
    • Long-term drivers: sustained demand for healthcare products, a robust pipeline, and ongoing global expansion; potential upside if valuation multiples normalize to a higher ESG/quality premium.
    • Risks: a broader economic downturn, regulatory challenges, or competitive pressure in key segments that could moderate growth trajectories.
  • Target range rationale: A long-run bull case with multiple expansion around quality-name status could push toward the 210–230 band, assuming earnings stability and a favorable risk sentiment environment.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key risks
    • Regulatory and pricing pressure in pharma and medical devices
    • Translation of earnings into GAAP numbers due to unusual items or one-off charges
    • Macro headwinds affecting consumer health segments and discretionary healthcare spending
  • Key opportunities
    • Ongoing share repurchases and a stable dividend policy enhancing per-share value
    • Diversified product portfolio that can cushion revenue volatility
    • Potential new product approvals, pipeline milestones, and cost discipline improving margins

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to Moderate Buy
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • The current price of 188.16 sits near the analyst mean and just above the median target, implying the market is pricing in a balanced view with limited upside unless multiple expansion occurs.
    • The High target of 212 suggests meaningful upside if positive catalysts materialize, including continued margin discipline, product-cycle strength, and macro stability.
    • Given solid profitability, a strong balance sheet, and a robust dividend, JNJ remains a core defensive holding. Investors may consider adding on dips toward the low-end price targets (e.g., around 155) if valuation gaps widen, or using €U.S. currency-hedged exposure to manage concentration risk.

Tables: Key data references

  • Analyst Targets | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Target Low Price | 155.0 | | Target Median Price | 185.0 | | Current Price | 188.16 | | Number of Analysts | 23 | | Target High Price | 212.0 | | Target Mean Price | 184.56 |

  • EPS Trend (selected cells) | Period | Current | 7 days Ago | 30 days Ago | 60 days Ago | 90 days Ago | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 2.75302 | 2.75183 | 2.74961 | 2.74961 | 2.69459 | | +1q | 2.56635 | 2.56392 | 2.56614 | 2.56614 | 2.4879 | | 0y | 10.85088 | 10.8547 | 10.85429 | 10.85404 | 10.61433 | | +1y | 11.37848 | 11.38504 | 11.36704 | 11.35387 | 11.10271 |

  • EPS Revisions | Period | Up Last 7 Days | Up Last 30 Days | Down Last 30 Days | Down Last 7 Days | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | +1q | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | 0y | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | +1y | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |

  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected metrics) | Quarter | Total Revenue | EBITDA | Operating Income | Gross Profit | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Normalized Income | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-06-30 | 23.74B | 8.74B | 6.80B | 16.12B | 5.54B | 2.29 | 5.93B | | 2025-03-31 | 21.89B | 15.61B | 13.83B | 14.54B | 11.00B | 4.54 | 5.44B | | 2024-12-31 | 22.52B | 5.92B | 4.02B | 15.38B | 3.43B | 1.41 | 3.48B | | 2024-09-30 | 22.47B | 5.38B | 3.53B | 15.51B | 2.69B | 1.11 | 3.10B | | 2024-06-30 | 22.45B | 7.80B | 6.66B | 15.56B | 4.69B | 1.93 | 5.89B | | 2024-03-31 | 22.46B | 7.80B | 6.02B | 15.58B | 4.69B | 1.93 | 5.89B |

  • 50-Day Moving Average (latest trend) | Date | Close | MA (50-day) | |---|---:|---:| | 2025-10-06 | 188.2 | 175.9 (approximate last provided value) |

  • RSI (latest) | Date | Close | RSI | |---|---:|---:| | 2025-10-06 | 188.2 | 75.6 |

  • MACD (latest) | Date | Close | MACD | Signal | |---|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-10-06 | 188.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 |

Important note on data interpretation

  • The earnings summaries reflect a mix of GAAP vs. normalized figures, with notable one-off items in some quarters. Normalize expectations around a mid-$5B quarterly income (normalized), with GAAP EPS volatility in quarters that show large unusual items.
  • The forward-looking estimate trend (EPS +1y around 11.38) aligns with a stable, mature healthcare cash generator, supported by JNJ’s disciplined capital allocation.

Bottom line

  • JNJ remains a high-quality, defensive healthcare name with strong profitability, a generous dividend, and a solid balance sheet. The current price is near consensus targets, and upside to the high target (212) depends on continued operating efficiency and favorable market dynamics. A measured approach—holding or modestly adding on dips toward the low target (155) or during market pullbacks—could be considered, with a longer-term view capably anchored by the high target if catalysts align.

If you want, I can add a one-page deck-style summary or tailor the price-target analysis to a specific scenario (e.g., macro recession, inflation shock, or a product-cycle upside).

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