Johnson & Johnson Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

Here is a comprehensive, data-driven view on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) with the requested horizontal price-target lines drawn and a detailed fundamental/technical narrative. The horizontal lines for Low, Median, and High targets have been plotted and extended 30 days into the future.

Horizontal price-target lines drawn

  • Low Target: 155.00 (color: green)
  • Median Target: 190.385 (color: orange)
  • High Target: 213.00 (color: red)
  • Extension: Lines extend from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (approx. 30 days forward)

Price target drawing status (executed)

  • Low (155): success
  • Median (190.385): success
  • High (213): success

Executive Summary

  • JNJ trades around 191.08 and faces a moderate near-term upside with a clear high target near 213 and a downside risk to ~155 based on consensus targets. The stock sits roughly at its median analyst target (190.39) but remains above a robust 50-day moving average with a historically defensive profile due to its diversified pharma/medical devices/consumer health mix. The near-term setup is supported by strong profitability and cash generation, but RSI and momentum have pushed into overbought territory, suggesting at least a near-term risk of consolidation or a pullback toward the 177–190 zone before stronger upside resumes.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and quality snapshot

    • Current price: 191.08
    • Market cap: 460.2B
    • Enterprise value: 488.7B
    • Trailing P/E: 20.48
    • Forward P/E: 18.03
    • Price to book: 5.86
    • ROE: 30.2%
    • ROA: 7.6%
    • Profit margin: 25.0%
    • Gross margin: 68.4%
    • Operating margin: 28.9%
    • Debt/Equity: 64.7%
    • Total cash: ~$18.88B
    • Total debt: ~$50.76B
    • Dividend yield: 2.74%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 2.8%
    • Beta: 0.39 (defensive profile relative to the market)

  • Earnings snapshot (recent earnings summary)

    • Revenue (latest quarter shown): ~$23.74B (2025-06-30) vs ~$21.89B (2025-03-31), ~$22.52B (2024-12-31)
    • Net income (continuing ops): ~$5.537B (2025-06-30) vs ~$10.999B (2025-03-31)
    • Diluted EPS: 2.29 (2025-06-30) vs 4.54 (2025-03-31) and 1.41 (2024-12-31)
    • Normalized income (approx. non-GAAP): ~$5.932B (2025-06-30) vs ~$5.444B (2025-03-31) and ~$3.483B (2024-12-31)
    • EBITDA: ~$8.74B (2025-06-30) vs ~$15.61B (2025-03-31) and ~$5.92B (2024-12-31)
    • Operating income: ~$6.81B (2025-06-30) vs ~$13.83B (2025-03-31) and ~$4.02B (2024-12-31)
    • Tax rate (calcs): ~14.7% (2025-06-30) vs ~19.3% (2025-03-31)
    • Observations: There are sizable one-time/unusual items in various periods, causing some quarter-to-quarter EPS fluctuation. Normalized earnings provide a more consistent view (roughly $5.4–$5.9B per quarter in recent periods). Diluted EPS has seen a notable spike in the 2025-03 quarter (4.54) which appears to be an outlier relative to other quarters.

  • EPS Trend (trend data provided)

    • Current quarter (0q): 2.757
    • 7 days ago: 2.750
    • 30 days ago: 2.750
    • 60 days ago: 2.750
    • 90 days ago: 2.701
    • +1q: 2.562
    • 0y (year ago quarter): 10.851
    • +1y: 11.406
    • Interpretation: The current quarter’s EPS (~2.76) is substantially lower than the year-ago quarter (0y ~10.85; +1y ~11.41), suggesting a meaningful year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings. The +1q (next quarter) value is ~2.56, indicating some sequential softness relative to the current quarter. This pattern is consistent with a mix of one-time items in prior periods and ongoing core profitability driving more stable normalized earnings, which aligns with the normalization narrative in the earnings data.

  • EPS Revisions (sentiment)

    • 0q: Up Last7Days 0, Up Last30Days 1, Down Last30Days 0, DownLast7Days 1
    • +1q: Up Last7Days 1, Up Last30Days 1, DownLast30Days 1, DownLast7Days 0
    • 0y: Up Last7Days 2, Up Last30Days 2, DownLast30Days 1, DownLast7Days 0
    • +1y: Up Last7Days 2, Up Last30Days 3, DownLast30Days 1, DownLast7Days 0
    • Interpretation: The revisions data show a modestly positive tilt over the longer horizon, with more upgrades than downgrades in the last 30–90 days, suggesting improving sentiment among analysts, even as near-term EPS is volatile.

  • Earnings quality take

    • Revenue trend: Total revenue has remained in the low-to-mid $22B range across recent quarters, with a peak around $23.74B for 2025-06-30.
    • Profitability: GAAP and normalized earnings point to high profitability in aggregate, with net income in the several-billion range and robust gross margins (~68%) and operating margins (~29%).
    • Sustainability: The normalized earnings framework and cash flow signals (Normalised Income in the mid-to-high $5B per quarter) support earnings sustainability, even as GAAP quarterly EPS exhibit episodic volatility due to one-time items and tax effects.

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action and key levels

    • Price: ~191.08
    • 50-day MA (latest): ~177.3 (last observation 2025-10-09)
    • RSI (14): ~87.3 (extremely overbought territory)
    • MACD (12,26,9): MACD ~3.9 with Signal ~3.0 (bullish momentum, still positive)

  • Interpretation

    • The price sits above the 50-day MA, signaling near-term bullish bias, but RSI near 87 indicates overbought conditions that could prompt a near-term pullback or consolidation.
    • MACD is positive and rising, supporting continued upside if momentum persists, but valuation and overbought risk warrant a cautious stance.

  • Support and resistance context

    • Immediate support: around 177–178 (proxied by the 50-day MA and recent price cluster)
    • Near-term resistance: around 191–195 (recent price area) and the broader target at 213 (analyst/high target)
    • The newly drawn horizontal lines at 155 (low), 190.385 (median), and 213 (high) provide clear reference levels for price reactions around a multi-quarter horizon.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 191.08
  • Number of analysts: 22
  • Target Low: 155.00
  • Target Median: 190.385
  • Target High: 213.00
  • Target Mean: 187.39864
  • Interpretation: The majority of targets cluster near the current level, with a breadth of opinions from 155 to 213. The median target sits very close to the current price, suggesting modest upside in line with the forward multiple and the defensive profile, while the high target implies material upside should fundamentals/ Sentiment improve.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 190.39 (median); close to current price
    • Justification: Near-term price action is elevated with RSI indicating overbought conditions; a pullback toward 177–190 could occur, but the base case remains within the analyst median target range.
    • Key drivers: Sustained profitability and steady cash flow; modest near-term catalysts; risk of a near-term consolidation due to overbought momentum.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: ~198 (central) with a high-end scenario up to 210–213
    • Justification: If earnings normalization remains intact and multiple is supported by stable growth and dividend appeal, the stock could drift toward the mean/upper end of the target distribution.
    • Key drivers: Normalized earnings stability, dividend income, modest buybacks, and macro stability; potential catalysts include incremental product/divisions performance, and continued resilience in healthcare demand.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: ~235 (range 230–250)
    • Justification: Sustained demand for healthcare products, ongoing dividend growth, and multiple expansion (relative to peers) as JNJ captures growth across pharmaceuticals, devices, and consumer health segments.
    • Key drivers: Long-run earnings growth, successful new product launches, global market penetration, efficiency and cost discipline, and a favorable regulatory/ payer environment.

Numerical Summary (selected items)

  • Current price vs targets
    • Current price: 191.08
    • Low target: 155.00 (≈ -18.9% from current)
    • Median target: 190.385 (≈ -0.36% from current)
    • High target: 213.00 (≈ +11.5% from current)
  • Implied return profile (excluding dividends)
    • If price hits median: ~-0.36%
    • If price hits high: ~+11.5%
  • Including the dividend yield (2.74% approx)
    • Upside potential with high target could be around 14–15% annualized over a 12–24 month horizon, depending on the pace of multiple expansion and earnings delivery.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Near-term momentum is overbought (RSI ~87), raising the risk of a pullback toward the 177–190 range.
    • Quarterly EPS variability due to one-time items and tax effects; reliance on normalized earnings for true trend.
    • Regulatory and pricing environment in vaccines/biopharma; competitive pressures in consumer and medical devices.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Defensive quality: diversified business mix with resilient cash flow and strong dividend support.
    • Potential upside if earnings normalization holds and sentiment improves, pushing the multiple toward the high target.
    • Ongoing cost discipline and potential share repurchase activity can provide incremental earnings per share support.

Investment Recommendation

  • Rating: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale: The stock sits near the median analyst target with a modest upside implied to the high target. The near-term RSI overbought condition argues for a cautious stance and potential near-term consolidation toward the 177–190 zone. However, the quality of earnings, strong cash generation, and a robust dividend yield provide a favorable risk-adjusted backdrop for a gradual upside over a 12–24 month horizon.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months): On base-case to high-target scenarios, approximately 6–12% capital appreciation potential, plus a 2.7%–2.9% annual dividend yield, yielding a total return in the neighborhood of 9–15% depending on price path and dividends reinvestment.

Technical Indicator Snapshot (context for decision-making)

  • 50-day Moving Average: ~177.3 (price is above MA, bullish short-term trend)
  • RSI(14): ~87.3 (overbought; risk of short-term pullback)
  • MACD(12,26,9): MACD ~3.9; Signal ~3.0 (bullish momentum, but watch for potential near-term normalization)

Appendix: Data references used

  • Price and valuation: current price, market cap, EV, P/E metrics, P/B, ROE/ROA, margins, debt/cash, dividend yield
  • Analyst targets: current price, number of opinions, low/median/mean/high targets
  • Recent earnings summary: quarterly revenue, net income, diluted EPS, normalized income, EBITDA, operating income, tax rate
  • EPS Trend: current vs prior periods
  • EPS Revisions: upgrade/downgrade counts over recent windows
  • Technical indicators: 50-day MA, RSI, MACD (last 60 days)
  • The horizontal lines drawn correspond to Low 155, Median 190.385, High 213 and extend 30 days forward from 2025-10-10

If you’d like, I can also deliver a follow-up with scenario analysis (e.g., what happens if RSI remains overbought for another 4–8 weeks vs. a pullback scenario with a 5%–10% correction) or convert the target analysis into a probabilistic or options-implied framework.

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