Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG).

Here is a comprehensive ISRG (Intuitive Surgical, Inc.) analysis with the requested horizontal trendlines drawn and a detailed price-target framework. All data reflect the information you provided, dated today (2025-10-10).

Drawing confirmation

  • Horizontal trendlines drawn for ISRG at:
    • Low Target: 350.00 (color blue)
    • Median Target: 595.00 (color orange)
    • High Target: 685.00 (color red)
  • Each line is extended 30 days into the future from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09.

Price targets drawn

  • Low Target: 350.00
  • Median Target: 595.00
  • High Target: 685.00

Executive Summary

  • ISRG remains a dominant player in robotic-assisted surgery with a sizable installed base, robust margins, and a track record of strong profitability.
  • The current price sits around 443.76, with analysts pricing in meaningful upside toward a median target around 595 and a high target near 685.
  • Near-term momentum is nuanced: EPS for the upcoming quarter is projected to rise (0q EPS ~1.99 vs +1q ~2.18), but analyst revisions have shown some downgrades in the most recent periods. The stock trades at a elevated trailing P/E (~61.9) but with solid margins (gross ~66.6%, operating ~30.5%) and a strong balance sheet (net cash, minimal debt).
  • Key risk is valuation: a high multiple relative to peers and macro/market risks. Upside depends on continued adoption growth, pipeline execution, and potential margin improvements.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key Valuation and Balance Sheet (latest data you provided)
    • Current price: 443.76
    • Market cap: 159,077,548,032 (≈$159.1B)
    • Enterprise value: 155,410,644,992
    • P/E (trailing): 61.89
    • P/E (forward): 56.46
    • Price-to-book: 8.91
    • ROE: 16.04%
    • ROA: 9.01%
    • Profit margins: 28.51%
    • Gross margins: 66.61%
    • Operating margins: 30.47%
    • Total cash: $5.326B
    • Total debt: $0
    • Dividend yield: None
    • Beta: 1.61
  • Financial Health
    • Balance sheet is cash-rich with no debt, which supports resilience in a high-valuation context.
    • High gross and operating margins support earnings resilience even if top-line growth moderates.
  • Interpretation
    • The stock trades at a premium multiple, in line with ISRG’s category leadership and margin profile. With no net debt and substantial cash, ISRG has a strong balance-sheet cushion for growth and R&D.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (key figures from the latest quarter in your data)
    • Total revenue (2025-06-30 quarter): $2.44B
    • Operating income: $743.4M
    • EBITDA: $898.7M
    • Net income (continuing operations): $658.4M
    • Diluted EPS: $1.81
    • Basic EPS: $1.84
    • Gross profit: $1.6179B
    • Cost of revenue: $822.1M
    • R&D: $313.3M; SG&A: $561.2M
  • EPS Trend
    • 0q (current): $1.9880
    • +1q: $2.1765
    • 0y (trailing annual): $8.1394
    • +1y (forward-looking): $9.2813
    • Interpretation: Near-term quarterly EPS shows a positive uptick into the next quarter, suggesting improving quarterly momentum. The trailing annual EPS around 8.14 and the forward estimate around 9.28 imply a modest but meaningful annual growth path ahead.
  • EPS Revisions
    • 0q revisions: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 0; downLast30days 1; downLast7days 1
    • +1q revisions: upLast7days 0, upLast30days 1; downLast30days 2; downLast7days 1
    • 0y revisions: upLast7days 1; upLast30days 1; downLast30days 1; downLast7days 1
    • +1y revisions: upLast7days 1; upLast30days 1; downLast30days 1; downLast7days 1
    • Interpretation: Near-term EPS revisions show modest downgrades in the last 30 days for 0q and some downgrades in 0q/+1q, while longer-horizon revisions (0y/+1y) show a balanced mix. Overall, revisions are not dramatically bearish, but there is some downward pressure in the very near term.
  • Earnings Quality
    • Revenue growth has been solid (notable quarterly consistency around $2.2–$2.4B); EBITDA and operating income are robust, with margins that support earnings durability.
    • Margin structure is strong (gross ~66.6%, operating ~30.5%), which supports earnings resilience even if revenue growth modestly slows.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and momentum
    • Current price: 443.76
    • 50-day moving average (approximate recent trend): ~462–465 (latest visible values around 462–464)
    • Price vs. 50-day MA: price is currently below the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term softness or a pullback relative to the intermediate-term trend.
    • RSI (14) (latest): ~53.2 (neutral, modestly bullish)
    • MACD (12,26,9): negative values trending upward but still below the signal line (latest MACD around -4.4 vs. Signal around -6.3 as of the most recent observation). The MACD remains negative, indicating ongoing near-term momentum challenges, but the spread between MACD and signal has narrowed in recent data, implying a possible shift toward positive momentum if the MACD crosses above the signal.
  • Key trend levels
    • The horizontal trendlines (Low 350, Median 595, High 685) provide clear price anchors for support/resistance and upside targets. The price is currently well above the Low line and below the Median line, with potential resistance near 595 and strong upside potential toward 685 if momentum improves.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Coverage and targets
    • Number of analysts covering ISRG: 27
    • Target High: 685.00
    • Target Low: 350.00
    • Target Median: 595.00
    • Target Mean: 576.95
  • Interpretation
    • The median target of 595 implies ~34% upside from the current price of 443.76, while the mean suggests a similar upside range. The distribution across a wide target set indicates substantial upside potential embedded in long-range expectations, but also a wide dispersion that reflects uncertainty around execution and adoption pace.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 595.00 (median/base-case)
    • Justification: Near-term EPS momentum shows improving quarterly earnings (0q ~1.99 → +1q ~2.18), coupled with resilient gross and operating margins. The cash-rich balance sheet supports continued R&D and expansion efforts. However, there are some modest near-term EPS revisions downgrades, which counsel prudence.
    • Key drivers: Next quarter earnings release, continued margin stability, and ongoing adoption of robotic-assisted surgery in core and new markets.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 685.00 (high/bull-case)
    • Justification: If ISRG sustains favorable revenue growth, margin stability, and global adoption reach, multiple expansion toward the high target is plausible. Forward earnings appear to trend higher (0y ~8.14, +1y ~9.28), and the stock could trade closer to the upper end of the analyst range if execution remains solid.
    • Key drivers: Acceleration in international adoption, new system deployments, product-cycle continuation, and steady gross/operating margins; modest improvements in capital efficiency and any share repurchase activity.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 800–900 (scenario-based range)
    • Justification: A multi-year view could see earnings demonstrating sustained mid-to-high-single-digit growth with potential margin expansion as the installed base thickens and cost structures improve with scale. A more constructive longer-term multiple (relative to forward earnings) could push ISRG into the 800–900 range, depending on growth in procedures, market expansion, and product pipeline success.
    • Key drivers: Structural growth in robotic-assisted surgery globally, potential new product iterations, continued efficiency gains, and favorable reimbursement ecosystems; risk includes competition, execution delays, and regulatory hurdles.
  • Summary table (targets vs current)
    • Current price: 443.76
    • Low target: 350.00
    • Median target: 595.00
    • High target: 685.00
    • Implied upside (from current): Low (-20%), Median ~+34%, High ~+55%
    • Note: Long-term ranges are scenario-based and depend on multiple expansion and sustained earnings growth.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Valuation risk: ISRG trades at a high multiple relative to peers; any deceleration in growth could compress multiple.
    • Adoption cycle risk: Slower-than-expected uptake of robotic surgery in new markets or reimbursement delays.
    • Competitive pressure: Intensifying competition in robotic platforms or alternative surgical technologies.
    • Execution risk: Product development timelines, system deployments, or service costs could affect margins.
  • Opportunities
    • Robust profitability and a cash-rich balance sheet enable continued R&D and international expansion.
    • Potential product pipeline progress and next-gen systems could extend the revenue runway.
    • Global expansion into underpenetrated markets could unlock substantial volume growth.

Investment Recommendation

  • View: BUY/HOLD with a constructive medium-term to long-term tilt
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential: Based on the spread to the median/high targets, a potential upside range roughly 25–60% in the next 12–24 months, with upside scenarios depending on execution, market adoption, and margin trajectories.
  • Rationale: ISRG’s leadership in robotic surgery, strong margins, and robust balance sheet underpin a favorable long-term thesis. However, near-term momentum is mixed due to EPS revisions and a price that trades well above most peers. A balanced stance recognizes substantial upside from the median/high targets, but remains mindful of the valuation and execution risk.

Technical Snapshot (Key indicators)

  • 50-day MA: approximately 462–465 (recent readings show MA around 462–465; price at 443.76 implies price below the 50-day MA)
  • RSI (14): ~53 (neutral)
  • MACD (12,26,9): Negative but converging; MACD around -4.4 vs Signal around -6.3 on the latest observation (still bearish momentum but potential for a shift if the MACD crosses the signal)
  • Interpretation: The price is testing near-term support levels and the 50-day MA indicates a potential consolidation phase before a clearer directional move. Bullish momentum would require improvement in MACD crossover and a move above the 50-day MA with sustained RSI strength.

Data Tables ( key numbers )

  • Key Metrics | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current Price | 443.76 | | Market Cap | 159,077,548,032 | | Enterprise Value | 155,410,644,992 | | Trailing P/E | 61.89 | | Forward P/E | 56.46 | | Price to Book | 8.91 | | ROE | 16.04% | | ROA | 9.01% | | Profit Margin | 28.51% | | Gross Margin | 66.61% | | Operating Margin | 30.47% | | Total Cash | 5.326B | | Total Debt | 0 | | Dividend Yield | N/A | | Beta | 1.61 |

  • Analyst Targets | Stat | Value | |---|---| | Current Price | 443.76 | | Analysts | 27 | | Target Low | 350.00 | | Target Median | 595.00 | | Target High | 685.00 | | Target Mean | 576.95 |

  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected quarter) | Quarter (End) | Revenue | Operating Income | EBITDA | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Gross Profit | Cost of Revenue | R&D | SG&A | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-06-30 | 2,440,000,000 | 743,400,000 | 898,700,000 | 658,400,000 | 1.81 | 1,617,900,000 | 822,100,000 | 313,300,000 | 561,200,000 |

  • EPS Trend (current to forward) | Period | EPS (USD) | |---|---:| | Current 0q | 1.98832 | | +1q | 2.17648 | | 0y | 8.13938 | | +1y | 9.28128 |

  • EPS Revisions (periodal) | Period | Up Last7d | Up Last30d | Down Last30d | Down Last7d | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | +1q | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | 0y | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | +1y | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |

  • Technical Indicators (selected) | Indicator | Value (latest) | |---|---:| | 50-day MA | ~462–465 (recent readings) | | Price vs 50-day MA | Price below MA (bearish near-term signal) | | RSI (14) | ~53.2 (neutral) | | MACD | -4.4 (below zero; negative) with Signal around -6.3 (latest) |

Notes on the data

  • All estimates and targets reflect the data you provided as of 2025-10-10. The trendlines drawn are exact as requested (Low 350, Median 595, High 685) and extended to 2025-11-09.
  • The price targets (Low/Median/High) come from the provided analyst targets, not a model-implied projection beyond those values.

If you’d like, I can:

  • Add a sensitivity table showing upside/downside scenarios relative to mid/low/high targets under varying EPS growth and multiple assumptions.
  • Build a simple 12–24 month upside/downside probability framework using the provided revision data and momentum indicators.
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