Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG).

ISRG - Comprehensive Price Target Analysis and Trendlines (as of 2025-10-07)

Summary: Horizontal trendlines have been drawn for the Low, Median, and High price targets (350, 595, 685) and extended 30 days into the future. Below is a thorough investment analysis using the data you provided, including earnings, fundamentals, technicals, analyst targets, and a structured price-target framework.

Trendlines drawn

  • Low Target: 350.00 (color: green)
    • Extends from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • Median Target: 595.00 (color: blue)
    • Extends from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • High Target: 685.00 (color: red)
    • Extends from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06

Technical note: The horizontal lines were plotted to the right edge (30 days forward) to visualize near-term price targets on the ISRG price chart.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) remains the leading player in robotic-assisted surgery with a large installed base, strong gross margins, and healthy operating margins. The stock trades at rich multiples relative to near-term earnings, but has a robust long-term growth story driven by continued adoption of robotic platforms, higher service revenue, and expansion in international markets.
  • Price framework: Analyst targets show a meaningful upside from today’s price of 449.69, with a median target of 595 and a high target of 685. The low target sits at 350, implying downside scenarios if execution or market dynamics deteriorate.
  • Key risk-reward: Upside hinges on sustained revenue growth, expanding margins, and continued adoption of platforms with favorable reimbursement environments. Downside risk includes competitive pressure, regulatory shifts, and potential multiple compression given high relative valuation.
  1. Fundamental Analysis Table: Key valuation and financial health metrics
  • Current price: 449.69
  • Market capitalization: 161.20B
  • Enterprise value: 156.94B
  • Trailing P/E: 62.54
  • Forward P/E: 57.21
  • PEG ratio: not provided
  • Price to Book: 9.03
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 16.04%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 9.01%
  • Profit margin: 28.51%
  • Gross margin: 66.61%
  • Operating margin: 30.47%
  • Total cash: 5.33B
  • Total debt: 0
  • Debt/equity: not meaningful (debt is effectively zero)
  • Beta: 1.61

Insights:

  • ISRG exhibits strong profitability with high gross margin and solid operating margin.
  • A zero net debt position supports optionality for capital allocation, but the stock trades at a high valuation (forward P/E ~57x).
  • The balance sheet is cash-rich with little to no leverage, which is favorable for navigating uncertain macro conditions or funding R&D.
  1. Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)
  • Total revenue (2025-06-30): 2.44B
  • Gross profit (2025-06-30): 1.6179B
  • Operating income (2025-06-30): 0.7434B
  • EBITDA (2025-06-30): 0.8987B
  • Net income (continuing operations, 2025-06-30): 0.6584B
  • Diluted EPS (0q, 2025-06-30): 1.81; Basic EPS: 1.84
  • Diluted EPS (0q, 2025-03-31): 1.92
  • Year-over-year snapshot (0y vs +1y): 0y Diluted EPS 8.136; +1y Diluted EPS 9.274 (indicative of multi-quarter momentum in annualized EPS)

Brief interpretation:

  • ISRG posted solid quarterly revenue and EBITDA levels with resilient margins. The diluted EPS rose meaningfully from 2024 to 2025, indicating earnings growth on a trailing basis and a favorable mix (likely higher services and recurring revenue components alongside device sales).

EPS Trend (trend data)

  • 0q (current quarter): 1.9948
  • +1q: 2.1766
  • 0y: 8.1361
  • +1y: 9.2739
  • 7d/30d/60d/90d history show modest positive momentum in quarterly earnings per share.

EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment changes)

  • 0q: upgrades 0, upgrades 30d 0; downgrades 30d 1; downgrades 7d 1
  • +1q: upgrades 7d 0; upgrades 30d 1; downgrades 30d 2; downgrades 7d 1
  • 0y: upgrades 7d 1; upgrades 30d 1; downgrades 30d 1; downgrades 7d 1
  • +1y: upgrades 7d 1; upgrades 30d 1; downgrades 30d 1; downgrades 7d 1

Interpretation:

  • The revisions data show a bias toward downgrades in the near term (0q and +1q windows show more downgrades than upgrades in the last 30 days and last 7 days). However, longer-term revisions (+1y and 0y windows) show a more balanced or modest upgrade signal. This indicates near-term sentiment may be soft, but longer-horizon expectations could still be constructive if ISRG sustains demand and margin progression.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action: ISRG trades at 449.69. The stock is trading below the 50-day moving average on the provided data (last MA values show the 50-day MA around 463–464 most recently; last entry is 2025-10-06: Close 449.7, MA 463.1). This suggests near-term softness relative to the recent trend, though not extreme.
  • 50-day Moving Average (MA): Approximately 463.1 (last data point). Price is about 13.4% below the 50-day MA, indicating a potential near-term pullback or consolidation near the MA.
  • RSI (14): Latest value around 61.9 (as of 2025-10-06). This is above 50 and in the modestly bullish range but not overbought.
  • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD around -5.4 with Signal around -7.8, indicating bearish momentum at the very near term, though momentum is not extreme. -MACD/RSI contextual take: While RSI indicates healthy momentum historically, the current MACD negative reading suggests near-term headwinds that could align with price hovering near the 50-day MA.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 449.69
  • Target Low: 350.00
  • Target Median: 595.00
  • Target High: 685.00
  • Number of analysts: 27
  • Target Mean: 580.10
  • Implied upside vs current price:
    • To Median: ~32%
    • To High: ~52%
    • To Low: ~-22%
  • Observations: A broad consensus exists with a wide target range (350–685). The mean target of ~580 indicates a mid-single-digit to low-20s percent upside depending on the path taken. The 27 analysts provide a reasonably broad coverage, supporting a credible central tendency around the median.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: 595 (median)
  • Justification:
    • Near-term earnings durability: EPS momentum shown in the recent quarterly results with Diluted EPS around 1.99 (0q) and up to 2.18 (1q) year-to-date trend suggests earnings resilience.
    • Analyst consensus: 27 analysts with a median target of 595; market may re-rate on continued margin stability and service revenue growth.
    • Drivers:
      • Gross margin ~66.6% and operating margin ~30.5% underpin a high-margin business model.
      • Cash-rich balance sheet with no net debt provides flexibility to fund R&D and capex for platform expansion.
  • Upside potential: Approximately 32% from 449.69 to 595.00.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 685 (high)
  • Justification:
    • Bull-case scenario: Continued adoption of robotic platforms; rising service/maintenance revenue; potential international expansion and continued backlog/installed base growth.
    • Analyst distribution places a meaningful upside to the high target in a 12-month horizon.
    • Risks: Valuation is rich (forward P/E ~57x) and near-term revisions show some downgrades, so execution and sustained demand are critical tailwinds.
  • Upside potential: Approximately 52% from 449.69 to 685.00.
  • Key drivers:
    • Margin stability and potential operating leverage as the installed base increases.
    • Recurring service revenue growth supporting profitability.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 350 (bear-case) or, more reasonably, use the high target as the longer horizon bullish path (685). Since a single “Long-Term” target is requested, the bear-case 350 is provided for risk assessment, while the bull-case path would align with the 685 figure if growth stays robust.
  • Bear-case (Long-Term Target): 350
    • Justification:
      • Potential regulatory, reimbursement, or competitive pressures that could compress multiples and slow growth.
      • Execution risk in international markets and servicing margins under pressure.
      • A scenario where the market assigns less multiple to a high-valuation stock due to slower-than-expected growth.
  • Bull-case (Long-Term): 685 (if ISRG sustains growth)
  • Interpretation: The long-term bull-case mirrors the high target if durable demand, margin expansion, and international adoption continue. The bear-case at 350 helps frame downside risk under adverse conditions.
  • Long-Term upside/downside potential is highly path-dependent and sensitive to clinical adoption rates, competitive dynamics, and reimbursement frameworks.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major Risks:
    • Valuation risk given elevated P/E multiples relative to the broader medtech space.
    • Execution risk in international expansion and ongoing regulatory/reimbursement changes.
    • Competitive pressure from alternative robotic systems and potential pricing pressure on platforms and consumables.
    • Dependency on broader adoption of robotic-assisted surgery and the rate at which hospitals invest in new platforms.
  • Key Opportunities:
    • Expanding service revenue and recurring streams from an enlarging installed base.
    • International expansion and higher utilization of Da Vinci systems across regions with growing healthcare infrastructure.
    • Margin expansion as volumes scale and operations scale efficiencies occur.
    • Potential new product platforms or enhancements that improve outcomes and efficiency for surgeons.

Investment Recommendation

  • Overall stance: Hold to Moderate Buy
    • Rationale: The stock is structurally advantaged with a leading position in robotic surgery and strong profitability metrics. However, the stock trades at a rich multiple, and near-term revisions show some headwinds. The consensus price targets imply meaningful upside from today, especially toward the median and high targets, but the risks of multiple compression and execution headwinds warrant a cautious stance.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential:
    • Base-case target (midpoint around the median): about 25–35% upside
    • Bull-case (to high target): 45–60% upside
    • Bear-case (low target): -22% downside
    • The actual realized return will depend on EPS trajectory, margins, and how revisions evolve in response to earnings and market dynamics.
  • Watchpoints:
    • Keep an eye on the 50-day MA and RSI trend as a barometer for near-term momentum.
    • Monitor EPS revisions: a shift toward upgrades in the next few quarters would bolster the bull-case case.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets – Data snapshot

  • Current price: 449.69
  • Target Low: 350.00
  • Target Median: 595.00
  • Target High: 685.00
  • Target Mean: 580.10
  • Number of analysts: 27
  • Observed sentiment: Near-term revisions show some downgrades, but the longer-term outlook remains constructive in aggregate.

Technical Indicators Recap

  • 50-day MA (last): ~463.1; Price currently around 449.7 (below MA)
  • RSI (14): ~61.9 (modestly bullish, not overbought)
  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD around -5.4; Signal around -7.8 (near-term bearish momentum)
  • Interpretation: The stock is in a zone of nuanced momentum—near-term softness against a backdrop of strong fundamentals and a robust margin profile. The price is approaching the 50-day MA, which could act as resistance if the trend does not improve.

Earnings Summary, EPS Trends, and Revisions – Takeaways

  • Recent earnings show solid revenue and profitability with growing EPS in the trailing periods.
  • EPS Trend highlights: 0q current EPS around 1.995; +1q around 2.177; 0y around 8.136; +1y around 9.274 (implies strong year-over-year trajectory when considering quarterly to annual mix).
  • EPS Revisions suggest more downgrades in the near term (0q and +1q windows), but longer-term revisions show a more balanced picture with some upgrades, indicating potential re-acceleration if quarterly results beat expectations.
  • Earnings quality appears robust with high gross margins and healthy operating leverage potential on higher volumes and service revenue.

Comprehensive Price Target Summary (in Markdown-style tables)

  • Analyst targets (summary)

    • Target Low: 350.00
    • Target Median: 595.00
    • Current Price: 449.69
    • Number of Analyst Opinions: 27
    • Target High: 685.00
    • Target Mean: 580.10077

  • Recent Earnings Snapshot (selected lines)

    • Total Revenue (2025-06-30): 2,440,000,000
    • Gross Profit (2025-06-30): 1,617,900,000
    • Operating Income (2025-06-30): 743,400,000
    • EBITDA (2025-06-30): 898,700,000
    • Net Income (continuing ops, 2025-06-30): 658,400,000
    • Diluted EPS (0q, 2025-06-30): 1.81
    • Diluted EPS (0q, 2025-03-31): 1.92
    • Diluted EPS (0y): 8.136
    • Diluted EPS (+1y): 9.274

  • EPS Trend (selected values)

    • 0q: 1.99479
    • +1q: 2.17663
    • 0y: 8.13605
    • +1y: 9.27395

  • EPS Revisions (summary)

    • 0q: upLast7days 0; upLast30days 0; downLast30days 1; downLast7Days 1
    • +1q: upLast7days 0; upLast30days 1; downLast30days 2; downLast7Days 1
    • 0y: upLast7days 1; upLast30days 1; downLast30days 1; downLast7Days 1
    • +1y: upLast7days 1; upLast30days 1; downLast30days 1; downLast7Days 1

  • 50-day MA (latest) and price action

    • Close (latest): 449.7
    • 50-day MA: 463.1
    • RSI (latest): 61.9
    • MACD: -5.4
    • MACD Signal: -7.8

Key Takeaways for ISRG

  • Upside potential vs current price is meaningful in the context of analyst targets, but near-term momentum is mixed due to revisions and MACD signals.
  • The price targets imply a broad upside potential to 595–685 over the next 12 months, with downside risk to 350 in a bear-case scenario.
  • The company’s fundamentals remain strong: high margins, cash-rich balance sheet, and a secular growth narrative around robotic surgery adoption. Valuation remains a key risk factor to be monitored.

If you’d like, I can also provide a scenario-based valuation model (e.g., discounted cash flow or multiple-based) incorporating the EPS trends and revisions data to illustrate a probabilistic range for ISRG under different growth and margin scenarios.

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