Intuit Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Intuit Inc. (INTU).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Intuit Inc. (INTU).

Below is a comprehensive INTU (Intuit Inc.) analysis using the data you provided, along with the three horizontal price-target trendlines drawn on the chart (Low, Median, High).

Note: The horizontal trendlines have been plotted as:

  • Low Target: 600 (blue)
  • Median Target: 823 (orange)
  • High Target: 971 (red) These extend 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-10) to 2025-11-09.

Trendline summary

  • Low Target: 600.00 (blue) — extended to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target: 823.00 (orange) — extended to 2025-11-09
  • High Target: 971.00 (red) — extended to 2025-11-09

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: INTU trades at a premium valuation relative to many software peers, supported by a strong margin profile and durable cash-generative business. The market consensus (median target 823, high 971) implies meaningful upside from the current price of 644.92 within the next 12 months, though near-term technicals suggest caution.
  • Short-term risk-reward: The stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average and has a weak RSI (oversold territory), suggesting a near-term bounce could occur if buyers step in or if macro conditions improve. However, momentum indicators (MACD negative) indicate lingering bearish pressure.
  • Price targets view: The consensus distribution (low 600, median 823, high 971) suggests a potential upside of roughly 28% at the median to about 51% at the high over a 12-month horizon, assuming earnings and margins hold up and market sentiment improves.

Key metrics at a glance

  • Current price: 644.92
  • Analyst consensus targets (30 analysts): Low 600.00 | Median 823.00 | High 971.00 | Mean 811.78
  • Upside/downside vs current:
    • Low: -6.9%
    • Median: +27.6%
    • High: +50.6%
  • Valuation highlights:
    • Trailing P/E: 47.14x
    • Forward P/E: 29.01x
    • Price-to-Book: 9.13x
    • ROE: ~20.3%
    • ROA: ~8.9%
    • Profit margin: ~20.5%
    • Gross margin: ~80.4%
    • Operating margin: ~15.7%
    • Dividend yield: ~0.66%
    • Beta: ~1.25
  • Price action context:
    • 50-day Moving Average (latest): ~692
    • RSI (14): ~25 (very oversold as of 2025-10-09)
    • MACD: Negative (MACD line around -7.5, Signal around -4.7) signaling continued near-term downside pressure, with potential for a rebound if conditions improve.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and financial health
    • Market Cap: $179.8B
    • Valuation: forward P/E ~29x, suggesting expectations for substantial earnings growth or margin stability ahead.
    • Price-to-Book: ~9.1x, indicating a premium book-value valuation, consistent with software/fintech business models with strong branding and cash generation.
    • Return on Equity (ROE): ~20.3% –Strong profitability and efficient use of equity.
    • Return on Assets (ROA): ~8.9% – Solid asset efficiency for a software/fintech-adjacent portfolio.
    • Profit Margin: ~20.5% – Healthy profitability.
    • Gross Margin: ~80.4% – Indicates high software-related gross margins; likely driven by SaaS/subscription revenue and services mix.
    • Operating Margin: ~15.7% – Reasonable for a diversified software/payments platform with support/development costs.
    • Dividend Yield: 0.66% (versus 5-year avg 0.58%) – Modest dividend with growth optionality.
  • Balance sheet visibility
    • Debt and cash figures are not provided in your data (Total Cash/Total Debt are null). This limits a complete leverage analysis. The company’s strong profitability and cash generation historically support favorable liquidity metrics, but explicit numbers would improve the assessment.
  • Earnings snapshot context
    • The earnings data you provided show significant quarterly volatility, with some quarters showing outsized EPS (e.g., +$10.02 in one period) likely due to one-time items, unusual tax effects, or reclassification. The “Normalised EBITDA” and “Normalized Income” figures indicate substantial adjustments across quarters.
    • EPS trend data show a mix of strong YoY growth signals (0y and +1y lines in the EPS Trends table), but single-quarter spikes/inconsistencies suggest a need to focus on adjusted metrics for a clean earnings trajectory assessment.

Earnings Analysis (key references from the provided data)

  • Recent earnings performance
    • The quarter-by-quarter revenue shows a wide swing in reported totals (e.g., 3.83B in 2025-07-31 vs. 7.75B in 2025-04-30). Normalized figures and unusual items are present in the data, so rely on the normalized baseline where possible for trend clarity.
    • Diluted EPS data show substantial variability across quarters (e.g., 1.35 in 2025-07-31 vs. 10.02 in 2025-04-30), suggesting one-off items or tax/timing effects that distort quarterly comparability.
  • EPS trends
    • 0q current: 3.0895; 7 days ago: 3.0887; 30 days ago: 3.0926; 60 days ago: 3.0566; 90 days ago: 3.0566.
    • +1q current: 3.8253; 7 days ago: 3.8239; 30 days ago: 3.8471; 60 days ago: 3.9672; 90 days ago: 3.9663.
    • 0y current: 23.1559; 1y prior: 23.1542; 2y prior: 23.1494; 3y prior: 22.9195; 4y prior: 22.9169.
    • +1y current: 26.3768; 1y prior: 26.3764; 2y prior: 26.3889; 3y prior: 26.3433; 4y prior: 26.3181.
    • Interpretation: There is an evident uplift in the quarterly EPS in the +1q and 0y/+1y lines, but the presence of large single-quarter EPS spikes in the reported data cautions against over-interpreting quarter-to-quarter changes without normalization.
  • EPS revisions
    • 0q revisions: upLast7d = 0; upLast30d = 13; downLast30d = 8; downLast7d = 1.
    • +1q revisions: upLast7d = 1; upLast30d = 5; downLast30d = 16; downLast7d = 2.
    • 0y revisions: upLast7d = 4; upLast30d = 19; downLast30d = 8; downLast7d = 0.
    • +1y revisions: upLast7d = 2; upLast30d = 8; downLast30d = 9; downLast7d = 1.
    • Interpretation: In aggregate, revisions have tilted more positive in the 30-day window for the near-term (+0q, +1q) and longer horizon (+0y, +1y) despite some downticks in the last 7 days. The net positive revision bias can be supportive for price targets near term, but the data is noisy, and macro/competitive forces remain material.

Technical Analysis (current market context)

  • Price action
    • Current price: 644.92
    • 50-day MA: Last observed around 692 (as of 2025-10-09), implying the stock is trading below the 50-day mean, signaling near-term weakness.
    • RSI (14): 25.3 (as of 2025-10-09), indicating oversold conditions and potential for a near-term bounce.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Negative (MACD ~ -7.5, Signal ~ -4.7), signaling momentum remains bearish, though oversold RSI suggests possible reversal if buyers come in.
  • Moving averages
    • The stock is below the 50-day MA, which is typically a bearish short-term signal. A potential bounce would require a sustained move above key levels (e.g., the 50-day MA at ~692 or higher).
  • Support and resistance
    • Horizontal trendlines at 600 (blue), 823 (orange), and 971 (red) provide stylized support/resistance projections for the near to mid-term. The current price sits above 600 but below 823, suggesting initial resistance at the median target and potential upside against the high target if catalysts materialize.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Coverage and targets
    • Number of analysts: 30
    • Target High: 971.0
    • Target Low: 600.0
    • Target Median: 823.0
    • Target Mean: 811.781
  • Implications
    • The distribution shows upside potential well above the current price (roughly +27% to +51% to the median/high).
    • The wide high-low spread indicates some variability in the outlook among analysts, but the central tendency (median/mean) signals material upside from the current level if execution and demand trends hold.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target range: Around the current price plus a potential near-term bounce toward the 823 median target.

  • Justification and drivers:

    • Oversold near-term RSI (25.3) opens potential for a relief rally if market conditions stabilize or there is positive company-specific news.
    • Analyst revisions have shown a net positive tilt in the near term (0q and +1q revisions in the last 30 days), which can underpin a near-term rally toward the 823 median target.
    • The stock trading below the 50-day MA suggests a possible consolidation before a fresh move; if it reverses, 700–750 area could be tested on a swing.

  • Price target (3 months): 790–830 (central bias near the median 823; upside risk to the high if momentum shifts quickly)

  • Key drivers:

    • Positive EPS revisions in the near term
    • Stabilization of macro/tech demand for Intuit’s services
    • Any better-than-expected quarterly results on normalized earnings

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target range: 823 median to 971 high, with a reasonable probability of testing the 823–971 band depending on execution and margins.

  • Justification and drivers:

    • Forward P/E around 29x supports continued growth expectations; margin expansion or cost discipline could lift premium multiples.
    • Continued strength in free cash flow and subscription revenue could sustain high-margin growth and support re-rating.
    • The 12-month horizon aligns with analyst median and high targets, suggesting a probable upside if company fundamentals remain resilient and secular tailwinds (digital payments, SMB software, and tax-automation platforms) hold.

  • Price target (12 months): 800–980 (consolidating around 823 median with potential to stretch to 971 under favorable conditions)

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target range: 900–1,100+ (bias toward the upper end if sustainable earnings growth and margin expansion continue)

  • Justification and drivers:

    • Structural growth in SMB software/fintech ecosystems, adoption of cloud-based accounting/payments, and continued high-margin software/services mix could lift profitability and cash generation.
    • Multiple expansion could occur if Intuit scales its platforms, improves operating leverage, and demonstrates durable revenue growth across product lines.

  • Price target (3+ years): 950–1,150+

  • Key catalysts:

    • Strong cash generation enabling buybacks/dividends and strategic acquisitions
    • AI-enabled product enhancements that improve user adoption and retention
    • Revenue diversification into adjacent segments (payments, small business solutions, tax/tax advisory features)

Price-target summary table

  • Current price: 644.92
  • Targets (analyst consensus):
    • Low: 600.00
    • Median: 823.00
    • High: 971.00
  • Upside potential (from current): Low: -6.9%; Median: +27.6%; High: +50.6%
  • Implied horizons: Short-term (3 months), Mid-term (12 months), Long-term (3+ years)

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key risks
    • Competitive intensity in tax software and SMB accounting solutions
    • Potential macro slowdown impacting SMB software adoption and tax-related work
    • Execution risk on new product features or platform integrations
    • Regulatory changes or tax policy uncertainty affecting the tax software segment
  • Key opportunities
    • Growth in cloud-based, AI-assisted SMB solutions
    • Expansion of payment solutions and financial product integrations
    • Strong free cash flow enabling capital returns and potential acquisitions

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to potentially buy on a dip
    • Rationale: The stock has meaningful upside potential to the median/high price targets, but near-term technicals are negative (price below 50-day MA, bearish MACD) and RSI is in oversold territory. The high consensus target (971) implies substantial upside from current levels, but upside depends on improving earnings quality and sustained margin discipline.
    • Time horizon: 12–24 months
    • Expected return potential: Approximately 15–40% to the median/high depending on execution and macro conditions; greater upside to the high target if conditions align.

Technical Indicators (supporting context)

  • 50-day Moving Average (MA): ~692 (as of 2025-10-09), price currently ~644.92
  • RSI (14): ~25 (oversold; potential for a rebound)
  • MACD (12,26,9): Negative; momentum bearish but may improve with a catalyst or a bounce

Analyst Coverage & Price Targets (summary table)

  • Analysts: 30
  • Target High: 971.0
  • Target Low: 600.0
  • Target Median: 823.0
  • Target Mean: 811.781

Earnings Summary Highlights (selected table excerpt)

  • Quarter, Total Revenue (USD), EBITDA (USD), Operating Income (USD), Net Income (USD), Diluted EPS
    • 2025-07-31: 3,831,000,000; 633,000,000; 340,000,000; 381,000,000; 1.35
    • 2025-04-30: 7,754,000,000; 3,953,000,000; 3,721,000,000; 2,820,000,000; 10.02
    • 2025-01-31: 3,963,000,000; 830,000,000; 597,000,000; 471,000,000; 1.67
    • 2024-10-31: 3,283,000,000; 474,000,000; 284,000,000; 197,000,000; 0.70
    • 2024-07-31: 3,184,000,000; 128,000,000; 96,000,000; -20,000,000; -0.07 Notes: The earnings table includes both reported and normalized figures with some quarters showing unusually large EPS (likely due to one-time items or tax effects). Normalized EBITDA and Net Income figures provide a clearer sense of ongoing profitability.

EPS Trends (selected)

  • 0q: current 3.0895; 7d ago 3.0887; 30d ago 3.0926; 60d ago 3.0566; 90d ago 3.0566
  • +1q: current 3.8253; 7d ago 3.8239; 30d ago 3.8471; 60d ago 3.9672; 90d ago 3.9663
  • 0y: current 23.1559; 1y ago 23.1542; 2y ago 23.1494; 3y ago 22.9195
  • +1y: current 26.3768; 1y ago 26.3764; 2y ago 26.3889; 3y ago 26.3433

EPS Revisions (summary)

  • 0q: upLast7d 0; upLast30d 13; downLast30d 8; downLast7d 1
  • +1q: upLast7d 1; upLast30d 5; downLast30d 16; downLast7d 2
  • 0y: upLast7d 4; upLast30d 19; downLast30d 8; downLast7d 0
  • +1y: upLast7d 2; upLast30d 8; downLast30d 9; downLast7d 1 Interpretation: Overall, revisions show more upward bias over the 30-day horizon for both near-term and longer-term periods in aggregate, though near-term data can be lumpy.

Horizontal Trendlines (as drawn)

  • 600 (Low target) — blue
  • 823 (Median target) — orange
  • 971 (High target) — red These trendlines are extended to 2025-11-09 to depict 30 days of forward extension from today.

Conclusion

  • INTU presents a compelling upside framework based on the Consensus Target Range (600–971 with a median of 823) and a favorable margin profile. However, near-term price action shows weakness (price under the 50-day MA, negative MACD, and oversold RSI), which increases the risk of a continued near-term drift if fundamentals do not improve or external factors weigh on tech/fintech equities.
  • The long-term case depends on continued revenue growth, margin stability, and capital allocation (buybacks/dividends/acquisitions). If the company can sustain its high gross margins and translate them into stronger operating leverage, a re-rating toward higher multiples could occur, supporting a long-term target in the 950–1,150+ range.
  • Investors with a longer horizon may consider patience or opportunistic entries near oversold levels, using the 600 level as a near-term risk boundary and the 823–971 zone as upside milestones to monitor.

If you’d like, I can tailor the Short/Mid/Long-Term price targets to specific timeframes (e.g., 90 days, 12 months, 3–5 years) or add sensitivity analysis based on different revenue/margin scenarios.

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