Honeywell International Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Honeywell International Inc. (HON).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Honeywell International Inc. (HON).

Drawn price-target lines completed

  • Low Target (210): drawn in green
  • Median Target (250): drawn in blue
  • High Target (290): drawn in red
  • Extends from 2025-10-10 and reaches 2025-11-09 (30 days into the future)

Tool notes: The lines were plotted on HON with p1 at 2025-10-10 and p2 at 2025-11-09, colors as described.

Now, the comprehensive analysis.

HON: Honeywell International Inc. – Comprehensive Analysis (as of 2025-10-10)

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: HON remains a diversified industrial conglomerate with exposure across aerospace, building technologies, safety, and productivity solutions. The stock trades at a premium valuation based on forward earnings, but offers a solid dividend yield and exposure to secular demand for efficiency, safety, and maintenance in industrial systems.
  • Price outlook (base case): With a current price around 204, the stock presents potential upside toward the median analyst target of 250 over the next 12 months, and higher upside toward 290 for longer horizons. In the near term, a modest rebound toward 210-215 could occur given oversold momentum and the stock’s position relative to the 50-day moving average.
  • Key caveats: Leverage is high (Debt/Equity reported around 226%), which adds sensitivity to rising interest rates and a potential increase in financing costs. Momentum indicators (RSI ~32, MACD negative) suggest caution in the near term but do not preclude a rebound if earnings momentum stabilizes.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Snapshot (selected metrics)

    • Current price: 204.23
    • Market cap: 129.66B
    • Enterprise value: 160.76B
    • Valuation
      • Trailing P/E: 23.23
      • Forward P/E: 18.55
      • P/B: 8.06
      • PEG: N/A
    • Returns and margins
      • Return on Equity (ROE): 33.6%
      • Return on Assets (ROA): 7.15%
      • Net profit margin: 14.30%
      • Gross margin: 38.08%
      • Operating margin: 21.43%
    • Financial health
      • Debt/Equity: 226%
      • Total cash: $10.68B
      • Total debt: $37.65B
      • Net debt (approx.): -$27.0B (debt minus cash)
    • Income/dividends
      • Dividend yield: 2.18%
      • Five-year avg dividend yield: 1.97%
    • Volatility proxy
      • Beta: 1.049

  • Financial health interpretation

    • HON operates with a substantial debt load relative to equity, reflecting a capital-intensive business with large, diversified cash flows. The company holds meaningful cash but carries more debt than many peers, leading to elevated interest exposure.
    • Profitability is solid, with meaningful gross and operating margins and a double-digit ROE. Forward earnings are expected to improve given the forward P/E near 18.5x, suggesting modest multiple expansion could occur if earnings momentum remains positive.
    • The dividend (2.18%) provides yield support, and the five-year dividend track offers a modest yield premium versus long-run averages.

  • Valuation context

    • Forward earnings multiple (~18.6x) sits above the typical market for diversified industrials but remains attractive if earnings growth materializes and capital discipline improves. The elevated P/B (~8.1x) reflects the quality of assets and persistent cash flows, but could pressure valuation if leverage concerns persist.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter shown: 2025-06-30)
    • Revenue: 10.352B
    • Gross profit: 4.023B
    • EBITDA: 2.605B
    • EBIT: 2.211B
    • Net income (continuing operations): 1.570B
    • Diluted EPS: 2.45
    • Basic EPS: 2.46
    • Normalized income: 1.650B
    • Tax rate (calcs): 16.1%
    • Unusual items: net -$95M (excluding goodwill), with other related items and impairment activity minimal to modest levels
    • Diluted shares: ~640.9M
  • EPS Trends
    • Quarter-over-quarter trend (latest vs prior periods):
      • 0q (current quarter): 2.5666
      • +1q: 2.7305 (improving vs 0q)
      • 0y: 10.5665 (trailing annual EPS)
      • +1y: 11.3885 (forward-12-month perspective)
    • Interpretation: The current quarter shows a modest uptick versus the prior quarter, with a positive year-over-year run rate suggesting ongoing earnings resilience, though the pace is not uniform across all segments.
  • EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment)
    • 0q: Up last 7 days = 1; Up last 30 days = 0; Down last 30 days = 2; Down last 7 days = 0
    • +1q: Up last 7 days = 1; Up last 30 days = 1; Down last 30 days = 1; Down last 7 days = 1
    • 0y: Up last 7 days = 1; Up last 30 days = 1; Down last 30 days = 1; Down last 7 days = 1
    • +1y: Up last 7 days = 1; Up last 30 days = 1; Down last 30 days = 2; Down last 7 days = 1
    • Interpretation: Mixed sentiment with a tilt toward occasional downgrades in recent windows, but some upgrades appear in longer windows. Overall, sentiment is not strongly bullish or bearish in the near term, suggesting earnings momentum remains a key watchpoint.
  • Earnings Quality
    • Revenue growth: Positive but modest in the latest quarter (10.35B).
    • Margins: Gross margin ~38%, operating margin ~21%, net margin ~14%, indicating a healthy, diversified mix of product lines with potential for margin expansion if productivity and pricing power hold.
    • Sustainability: Large, diversified cash generation supports ongoing capex, buybacks, and the dividend, though high leverage adds sensitivity to rate moves.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and levels
    • Current price: 204.23
    • The stock is trading below the 50-day moving average, suggesting near-term softness. The latest 50-day MA is around 214–216 in the most recent window, implying near-term resistance above current price.
    • RSI (14) is around 32.6 (near oversold territory), signaling potential near-term upside if buyers re-enter.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Negative (last reading around -2.1 vs a matching signal line), indicating current momentum remains bearish but not necessarily decisive.
  • Moving averages
    • 50-day MA: roughly mid-210s to mid-220s through the recent window; price near or below this level reinforces a near-term softness.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI near 32–33 indicates potential for a rebound if selling pressure wanes.
    • MACD negative suggests bearish momentum but not a strong cross indicating a reversal yet.
  • Support and resistance context
    • The drawn lines (210, 250, 290) reflect distinct levels:
      • 210 (green): a near-term, modest upside target and potential support-resistance inflection near current price
      • 250 (blue): mid-term earnings/macro momentum target; a logical upside objective if earnings and cash flow stay constructive
      • 290 (red): longer-term upside scenario tied to sustained growth and multiple expansion

Sources: The technical setup is anchored by the most recent price (204.23), the 50-day MA around 214, RSI ~32.6, and MACD around -2.1, with the targeted levels plotted as requested.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 204.23
  • Number of analysts: 21
  • Target High / Low / Median / Mean
    • High: 290.0
    • Low: 210.0
    • Median: 250.0
    • Mean: 251.78

Interpretation:

  • The consensus implies ~23% upside to the median target and ~42% to the high target over the next cycle, with 21 analysts providing a fairly balanced view between conservative and ambitious growth scenarios. The median target aligns with a 12–18 month view anchored by earnings power and cash flow resilience.
  • Key catalysts to watch include continued orders in industrial productivity solutions, execution of cost discipline, and any uplift in end-market demand for HVAC, safety, and defense-related technology.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 210
    • Justification: RSI at oversold levels (low 30s) and near-term technical support around the 210 zone; modest upside supported by a test of the 50-day MA (around 214) and a potential quick bounce.
    • Key drivers: any stabilization in industrial orders, defense spending signals, and stabilization in market risk appetite. Macro backdrop sensitivity remains a risk.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 250
    • Justification: The market’s mean/median targets imply a re-rating based on continued earnings momentum, improved margins, and sustainable free cash flow generation. Forward P/E of ~18.5x remains reasonable for a diversified industrial with solid margins and yield.
    • Key drivers: sustained revenue growth, margin stability, continued cash-generative capacity, and balanced capital allocation (buybacks/dividends).
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 290
    • Justification: If HON executes product diversification and captures structural demand for efficiency and safety across industrial segments, a higher multiple could be warranted. The 290 target reflects a potential combination of earnings growth, multiple expansion, and cumulative cash flow strength.
    • Key drivers: long-cycle capex in aerospace and industrial automation, energy efficiency trends, continued exposure to resilient end-markets, and potential deleveraging as cash flow strengthens.

Note: These targets reflect the provided Low/Median/High levels (210/250/290) and the analyst Consensus data (High 290, Low 210, Median 250, Mean 251.78). The 30-day extension line is plotted for the requested 30-day horizon.

Table: Target pointers (derived from data)

  • Current price: 204.23
  • Low target: 210.0
  • Median target: 250.0
  • High target: 290.0
  • Analyst opinions: 21 covering HON
  • Target ranges align with the provided numbers: low 210, median 250, high 290

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks

    • Leverage and interest-rate sensitivity: Debt/Equity around 226% implies higher financing costs if rates rise.
    • Near-term momentum risk: RSI indicates oversold conditions, but continued MACD weakness could extend a downward bias if earnings news disappoints.
    • Global macro risk: Industrial spend cycles and supply chains can be cyclical; any slowdown could pressure HON’s order flow.
    • Valuation risk: Forward multiple is not cheap for a diversified industrial with a high balance sheet leverage.

  • Key Opportunities

    • Margin resilience and cash generation: Operating margins >20% and robust gross margins provide a cushion for earnings.
    • Dividend income: ~2.18% yield with a history of dividend tilts toward shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
    • Growth tailwinds: Demand for safety, energy efficiency, and process improvement across multiple business lines could support earnings upside and potential multiple expansion.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to Moderate Buy, with a base-case view of 12–24 months upside to the 250 area, and potential to the 290 level if earnings momentum and capital allocation drive multiple expansion.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months)
    • Base-case to Median target (~250): roughly +22% from 204 (approximate)
    • Upside to High target (~290): roughly +42% from 204
    • Downside risk to Low target (~210): roughly +3% to +5% in the near term
  • Rationale: The stock offers a solid dividend and resilient earnings quality but carries leverage risk and near-term momentum headwinds. If earnings growth and free cash flow remain robust, HON could re-rate toward the median/high targets over the next 12–24 months. A cautious stance is warranted given the debt burden and mixed near-term momentum signals.

If you’d like, I can add a concise sensitivity table showing potential returns by price movement to each target (210/250/290) under different assumed earnings growth scenarios, or provide a one-page-summary for an investment memo.

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