The Home Depot, Inc. Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD).
HD — Comprehensive Analysis as of 2025-10-07
Drawn price target lines (Low, Median, High)
- Low Target: 335.00 (Blue) — extends to 2025-11-06
- Median Target: 450.00 (Orange) — extends to 2025-11-06
- High Target: 497.00 (Green) — extends to 2025-11-06
Executed with horizontal lines extending 30 days from today:
- HD: Low 335 @ 2025-11-06 (blue)
- HD: Median 450 @ 2025-11-06 (orange)
- HD: High 497 @ 2025-11-06 (green)
Executive Summary
- Investment thesis: Home Depot (HD) remains a premier consumer discretionary retailer with strong brand equity, stable cash flows, and a solid dividend. Near-term momentum faces macro/headwinds, but earnings revisions and a favorable long-run housing/DIY cycle support a constructive, multi-quarter to multi-year trajectory. The stock trades with a reasonable forward earnings multiple, but its leverage and episodic demand volatility warrant a balanced stance.
- Price targets to frame risk/reward: Low 335, Median 450, High 497 (current ~389). The base case (Median) implies ~+15% to ~+16% upside in the next 3–12 months; the High target implies ~+28% upside. A Low target embeds a material downside risk if macro conditions deteriorate.
Fundamental Analysis Key Metrics (as provided)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 389.33 |
| Market Cap | 387,533,864,960 USD |
| Enterprise Value | 845,590,888,448 USD |
| Trailing P/E | 26.49 |
| Forward P/E | 24.96 |
| PEG Ratio | — |
| Price to Book | 36.32 |
| Return on Equity | 193.95% (listed 1.9395; implied very high due to buybacks/leverage) |
| Return on Assets | 13.71% |
| Profit Margin | 8.86% |
| Gross Margin | 33.35% |
| Operating Margin | 14.48% |
| Debt to Equity | 580.59x (extremely high leverage) |
| Total Cash | 2.804B |
| Total Debt | 61.92B |
| Dividend Yield | 2.33% |
| Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 2.30% |
| Beta | 1.001 |
Observations:
- Leverage: Debt-to-equity is exceptionally high, suggesting heavy indebtedness relative to equity and potential interest burden concerns; HD’s enterprise value reflects substantial debt financing.
- Valuation: Trailing/Forward P/E around mid-20s aligns with a mature consumer retailer with steady cash flow, yet the elevated P/B (36.3x) signals a rich asset base/brand premium or aggressive capitalization effects.
- Profitability: Healthy gross (33.3%) and operating margins (14.5%) support durable earnings power, though margins can be sensitive to macro costs and mix.
- Cash/Debt: Modest cash on hand vs. a large debt load; capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) has likely contributed to the elevated ROE, but debt repayment capacity and debt service remain key considerations.
Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (GAAP/Normalized)
Earnings snapshot by quarter (Quarter End dates: 2025-07-31, 2025-04-30, 2025-01-31, 2024-10-31, 2024-07-31)
| Quarter End | Total Revenue (USD) | Operating Income (USD) | Net Income (USD) | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS | Normalized Income (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 45,277,000,000 | 6,555,000,000 | 4,551,000,000 | 4.58 | 4.59 | 4,551,000,000 |
| 2025-04-30 | 39,856,000,000 | 5,133,000,000 | 3,433,000,000 | 3.45 | 3.46 | 3,433,000,000 |
| 2025-01-31 | 39,704,000,000 | 4,495,000,000 | 2,997,000,000 | 3.02 | 3.02 | 2,997,000,000 |
| 2024-10-31 | 40,217,000,000 | 5,418,000,000 | 3,648,000,000 | 3.67 | 3.68 | 3,648,000,000 |
| 2024-07-31 | 43,175,000,000 | 6,534,000,000 | 4,561,000,000 | 4.60 | 4.61 | 4,561,000,000 |
EPS Trend
| Period | EPS (USD) |
|---|---|
| 0q (current) | 3.85313 |
| 7 days ago | 3.85347 |
| 30 days ago | 3.84509 |
| 60 days ago | 3.84887 |
| 90 days ago | 3.84858 |
| +1q | 2.92283 |
| +1q (7d ago) | 2.92058 |
| +1q (30d ago) | 2.91758 |
| +1q (60d ago) | 2.89204 |
| +1q (90d ago) | 2.89294 |
| 0y | 15.0146 |
| 0y (7d ago) | 15.01663 |
| 0y (30d ago) | 15.00663 |
| 0y (60d ago) | 15.01339 |
| 0y (90d ago) | 15.01191 |
| +1y | 16.27344 |
| +1y (7d ago) | 16.29903 |
| +1y (30d ago) | 16.27521 |
| +1y (60d ago) | 16.32443 |
| +1y (90d ago) | 16.3132 |
EPS Revisions Period | Up Last 7 Days | Up Last 30 Days | Down Last 30 Days | Down Last 7 Days
- 0q | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0
- +1q | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0
- 0y | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1
- +1y | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0
Observations:
- Positive revision momentum: Both 0q and +1q periods show net positive revisions (more upgrades than downgrades) across the last 7 and 30 days, suggesting growing confidence in near-term earnings.
- EPS trend snapshot: The current 0q EPS around 3.85 is a multiple-quarter figure that sits well below the trailing annual EPS base (0y around 15.01, +1y around 16.27), consistent with multi-quarter reporting dynamics for a large retailer (seasonality, normalization, and share buybacks affect quarterly numbers).
- Earnings quality: Normalized income for the latest quarters remains robust, with GAAP net income and diluted EPS reflecting durable operating performance. Revenue has shown a pattern of growth into 2025 Q3/Q4 relative to prior-year periods, though quarterly volatility exists.
Technical Analysis Current Price Action
- Last close: 389.33
- 50-day MA (latest in data): 401.0; current price is ~12 points below the 50-day moving average, indicating near-term softness versus the shorter-term trend.
- RSI (14): Latest readings around 8–9 in early October (extremely oversold territory), after a period of elevated readings in late August/September (60s–70s). The forced swing to oversold could imply a near-term bounce if fundamentals and macro data align, but caution warranted given momentum indicators.
- MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD around -2.4 with Signal ~+1.2. Negative MACD confirms ongoing bearish momentum, though a potential MACD histogram rebound could precede a near-term bounce if price stabilizes.
Key support/resistance and moving-average context
- Immediate support: 335 (Low Target) — blue line drawn; represents a potential downside risk if negative macro/inflationary pressures persist.
- Intermediate resistance: 450 (Median Target) — orange line drawn; a key hurdle to upside in the 3–12 month frame.
- Upper resistance/bracket: 497 (High Target) — green line drawn; represents a bullish ceiling given consensus upside.
- The price is currently between the 335 support and 450 resistance, with the 50-day MA at 401 suggesting downside pressure still dominant in the near term.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current price targets (low/median/high): 335 / 450 / 497
- Current price: 389.33
- Number of analysts: 33
- Mean target: 437.76
- Implication: The stock trades closer to the median target and above the low target, implying a bullish tilt relative to the low downside case, but a potential upside path to the median/high targets remains contingent on earnings momentum and macro conditions.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 450 (Median)
- Rationale: Positive EPS revisions in the last 30–90 days, improved normalized earnings signals, and ongoing buyback/dividend support; near-term catalysts could include modest top-line momentum and stabilization in discretionary demand.
- Key drivers: Positive earnings revisions, continued cash generation, margin management and ongoing share repurchases.
- Risks: Macro weakness, cost pressures (labor, logistics), competitive pricing pressures, and any negative guidance revisions.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: 497 (High) as a bullish anchor; 450 as base-case (Median)
- Rationale: If earnings momentum continues (bolstered by robust store-level performance and DIY demand), P/Es near 25–28x forward could support a move toward the high target.
- Key drivers: Sustained revenue growth, stable gross and operating margins, continued buybacks, and multiple expansion on improved earnings visibility.
- Risks: Increased debt servicing costs given high leverage, potential macro deterioration, and margin compression in a volatile supply chain environment.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 570 (illustrative long-term target; see note)
- Rationale: Assuming modest earnings growth (low-to-mid teens in EPS growth over multi-year horizon) and healthy but potentially expanding multiples as the business scales, a longer-term bull case could justify higher price levels. Given HD’s strong brand and ongoing home-improvement tailwinds, a longer horizon target could incorporate EPS growth, buyback-driven ROE, and a more normalized multiple as leverage concerns are managed.
- Key drivers: Structural demand in home improvement, ongoing efficiency gains, deleveraging over time, and a steady dividend.
- Risks: Sustained macro headwinds, persistent high leverage, changing consumer behavior, and competitive dynamics.
Notes on earnings, EPS trends, and revisions
- EPS trend points to a robust current quarter (0q around 3.85) but significantly higher trailing/yoy figures (0y around 15.01; +1y around 16.27), reflecting annualized earnings power and seasonality in the business.
- EPS revisions show net positive momentum (upward revisions outnumber downgrades across both 0q and +1q periods in the last 30–7 days), supporting a constructive near-term bias.
- Earnings quality remains solid on a normalized basis, with EBITDA and operating income reflecting durable profitability, even in the face of cyclical macro pressures.
Technical Indicators Summary
- 50-day MA (latest): 401.0 vs. price 389.3–389.33 (as of 2025-10-06/07), indicating price remains under the near-term trend and could be a source of resistance to quick movements higher.
- RSI (14): Recently in the 8–9 range (extremely oversold), suggesting potential for a near-term bounce if selling abates and buyers return.
- MACD (12,26,9): Negative delta with a current MACD of approximately -2.4 and a positive signal line around 1.2, indicating near-term momentum remains bearish, with a possible reversal if price stabilizes and MACD converges.
Investment Considerations
- Strengths: Brand strength, durable margins, steady dividend, and a favorable long-run Home Improvement cycle supporting earnings power.
- Concerns: Very high debt-to-equity, substantial leverage risk, and near-term macro sensitivity (retail/costs) that could weigh on sentiment.
- Catalysts: Positive revisions, continued cash flow generation, and potential multiple expansion as leverage concerns are gradually managed and housing activity stabilizes.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Risks: Elevated leverage and debt service burden; potential macro slowdown; supply chain/logistics cost pressures; incremental competition from online and big-box peers.
- Opportunities: Reacceleration in home-improvement spending; operating leverage improvements; buyback-driven ROE improvements; improvement in consumer sentiment and housing activity.
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: Hold
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Rationale: HD trades above the low-target downside but below a robust bull case in the near term. Positive revisions and a resilient earnings framework support upside potential to the median/high targets, but leverage risk and macro sensitivity warrant patience and careful risk management.
- Expected return potential (baseline): ~+15–18% to reach the Median Target (450) over 12 months.
- Upside/downside potential: Upside to High Target (~497) implies ~+25–28% from current levels; downside risk anchored near the Low Target (~335) represents ~-14% to -15%.
Price Target Scenarios (Summary Table)
| Horizon | Target Price | Rationale / Key Drivers | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-Term (3 months) | 450 | Positive EPS revisions; normalized earnings; buybacks; consumer demand stabilizing | Macro weakness; cost pressures; potential guidance miss |
| Mid-Term (12 months) | 497 | Earnings momentum; potential multiple expansion; strong brand; continued capital return | High leverage risk; macro sensitivity; competition dynamics |
| Long-Term (3+ years) | 570 (illustrative) | Sustained EPS growth; deleveraging; durable demand tailwinds; potential multiple expansion | Prolonged leverage concerns; economic shocks; secular shifts in consumption |
Analyst Coverage and Targets
- Analysts covering HD: 33
- Current mean target: 437.76
- Low/Median/High targets: 335.00 / 450.00 / 497.00
- The current price sits between the mean and median target, with a visible path to the high target if earnings momentum and balance sheet dynamics improve.
Market Context
- HD operates in a relatively resilient consumer discretionary space, where long-run housing activity and DIY trends tend to support steady demand. The stock’s valuation reflects brand premium and long-standing margins but is tempered by leverage and cyclicality.
- The company’s dividend yield (~2.33%) provides some income under potentially volatile price action, supporting a defensive element in a broader equity portfolio.
Recommendation
- For investors seeking upside exposure with a balanced risk profile, consider a staged approach:
- Watch for stabilization in RSI and price above ~400 to validate a near-term bottom and a potential move toward the 450 target.
- If positive revisions persist and the debt burden remains manageable, using dips toward the 335 support could present a favorable entry for a long-term hold.
- Maintain awareness of macro developments and HD’s capacity to deleverage while sustaining earnings growth.
Notes and References
- Price targets and current price: Analyst targets (Low 335, Median 450, High 497; current 389.33; mean 437.76; 33 analysts).
- Earnings data: Total Revenue, Operating Income, Net Income, and EPS by quarter (2025-07-31, 2025-04-30, 2025-01-31, 2024-10-31, 2024-07-31).
- 2025-07-31: Revenue 45.277B; Operating Income 6.555B; Net Income 4.551B; Diluted EPS 4.58; Basic EPS 4.59
- 2025-04-30: Revenue 39.856B; Operating Income 5.133B; Net Income 3.433B; Diluted EPS 3.45; Basic EPS 3.46
- 2025-01-31: Revenue 39.704B; Operating Income 4.495B; Net Income 2.997B; Diluted EPS 3.02; Basic EPS 3.02
- 2024-10-31: Revenue 40.217B; Operating Income 5.418B; Net Income 3.648B; Diluted EPS 3.67; Basic EPS 3.68
- 2024-07-31: Revenue 43.175B; Operating Income 6.534B; Net Income 4.561B; Diluted EPS 4.60; Basic EPS 4.61
- EPS Trends and Revisions: 0q current EPS ~3.85; trailing 0y EPS ~15.01; +1y EPS ~16.27; Revisions skew positive in 7–30 day windows.
- Technical indicators: 50-day MA ~401.0, RSI recently in the 8–9 range (oversold), MACD around -2.4 vs. Signal ~1.2 (bearish momentum).
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