The Home Depot, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for The Home Depot, Inc. (HD).

Here is a comprehensive HD (The Home Depot, Inc.) stock analysis aligned with your request. I’ve drawn three horizontal lines for the Low, Median, and High price targets (extending 30 days into the future) and provided a detailed, data-driven narrative.

Drawing Done

  • Low Target: 335.00 (green)
  • Median Target: 450.00 (blue)
  • High Target: 497.00 (red)

Note: Each line is drawn from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09 (30 days forward). Ticker HD.

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: The Home Depot sits on a solid cash-generative core with resilient demand for home improvement products. Near-term price action is challenged by a gap to the 50-day moving average and oversold momentum metrics, but multi-quarter earnings momentum and constructive analyst sentiment support a longer-term up-move toward the consensus targets.
  • Near-term read: The stock trades below the 50-day moving average (approximately 401.6 as of 2025-10-09) and RSI has been deeply oversold in early Oct 2025, suggesting a potential rotation higher if macro conditions stabilize and earnings momentum confirms.
  • Price targets: Consensus targets imply meaningful upside from the current price (~377.69). Median target 450 and High target 497 imply roughly 19% to 31% upside, respectively, over a ~3–12 month horizon. Low target of 335 implies downside risk limited to ~-11%.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Current valuation and scale (USD):
    • Price: 377.69
    • Market cap: 375.95B
    • Enterprise value: 823.15B
    • Trailing P/E: 25.69
    • Forward P/E: 24.21
    • Price/Book: 35.24
    • Debt/Equity: 580.59 (exceptionally high by typical HD standards; this figure appears unusually elevated in the data)
    • Total cash: 2.80B
    • Total debt: 61.92B
    • Dividend yield: 2.4%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 2.3%
    • Beta: 1.001
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 1.94 (reported as 1.9395; appears to be a decimal multiple; if read as a percent, ~193.9%)
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 0.14%
    • Gross margins: 33.35%
    • Operating margins: 14.48%
    • Net profit margin: 8.86%
  • Note on leverage and cash: The Debt/Equity figure listed is unusually high for HD historically, and the net cash position is modest relative to long-term debt. This balance sheet nuance should be tracked going forward, especially as HD funds capital returns and store footprint investments.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected figures)

  • Quarterly data (Normalized EBITDA, Net Income, Depreciation, Revenue, EPS)
    • 2025-07-31: EBITDA 7.584B; Net Income 4.551B; Diluted EPS 4.58; Basic EPS 4.59; Operating Income 6.555B; Total Revenue 45.277B; Cost of Revenue 30.152B
    • 2025-04-30: EBITDA 6.151B; Net Income 3.433B; Diluted EPS 3.45; Basic EPS 3.46; Operating Income 5.155B; Total Revenue 39.856B; Cost of Revenue 26.397B
    • 2025-01-31: EBITDA 5.534B; Net Income 2.997B; Diluted EPS 3.02; Basic EPS 3.02; Operating Income 4.525B; Total Revenue 39.704B; Cost of Revenue 26.670B
    • 2024-10-31: EBITDA 6.443B; Net Income 3.648B; Diluted EPS 3.67; Basic EPS 3.68; Operating Income 5.448B; Total Revenue 40.217B; Cost of Revenue 26.699B
    • 2024-07-31: EBITDA 7.538B; Net Income 4.561B; Diluted EPS 4.60; Basic EPS 4.61; Operating Income 6.618B; Total Revenue 43.175B; Cost of Revenue 28.759B
  • Observations:
    • Quarterly EPS (diluted) has moved from the mid-3s in early-2025 to the high-4s in the latest quarter (4.58 on 2025-07-31). This aligns with EBITDA and operating income expansion, pointing to improving earnings quality as gross margins hold in the low- to mid-30s and SG&A remains controlled.
    • Revenue growth across the sample is positive, with total revenue rising from ~39.7B–40.2B in late-2024 to ~45.28B in 2025-07-31.
  • EPS Trend (detailed)
    • Current quarter (0q): 3.85 (approx.)
    • +1q: 2.92
    • 0y (YoY quarter): 15.02
    • +1y: 16.27
    • Interpretation: The quarterly EPS numbers show a recent quarter around the mid-3s to 4.6s range, with YoY quarter comparisons in the mid-teens for the corresponding periods. The YoY figures imply a different baseline (perhaps driven by share count or one-time items in the prior year), so the trend needs to be interpreted in the context of normalization after the pandemic-era base effects.

EPS Revisions

  • 0q (recent period): Up Last 7 days = 2; Up Last 30 days = 4; Down Last 30 days = 1; Down Last 7 Days = 0
  • +1q: Up Last 7 days = 3; Up Last 30 days = 5; Down Last 30 days = 0; Down Last 7 Days = 0
  • 0y: Up Last 7 days = 3; Up Last 30 days = 5; Down Last 30 days = 1; Down Last 7 Days = 1
  • +1y: Up Last 7 days = 3; Up Last 30 days = 5; Down Last 30 days = 0; Down Last 7 Days = 0 Interpretation: Broadly constructive revisions trend, with more upgrades than downgrades across the last 30- and 7-day windows for both the current and next-year periods, supporting modest to favorable revisions in earnings trajectory.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and trend
    • Current price: 377.69
    • 50-day moving average (latest in dataset): 401.6
    • Price vs. 50-day MA: Price remains below the 50-day MA, signaling near-term weakness and potential for a mean-reversion bounce if buyers step in.
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14) (latest): ~6.2 (early Oct 2025), indicating extreme oversold conditions.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD around -5.8 with a negative signal around -1.7, indicating bearish momentum, though the line has shown improvement from deeper negatives earlier in the window.
  • Key supports and resistances (based on targets)
    • Major resistance levels implied by targets: 450 (median), with upside to 497 (high).
    • Major support level implied by the Low target: 335.
    • Near-term dynamic: 50-day MA at ~401.6 may be a near-term resistance to a near-term recovery, with initial support around the Low target of 335 and secondary near 360–380 ranges (intrinsic to historical price action not fully provided here).

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 377.69
  • Number of analysts covering: 33
  • Target Low / Median / High / Mean:
    • Low: 335.0
    • Median: 450.0
    • High: 497.0
    • Mean: 438.85
  • Upside potential (from current price):
    • To Low: -11.3%
    • To Median: ~19.1%
    • To High: ~31.6%
    • To Mean: ~16.2%
  • Implied catalyst: Robust macro and consumer spending on home improvement, potential for earnings normalization, and continued dividend support.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 450 (median)
    • Rationale: Proximal to the consensus median and aligned with 33-analyst coverage. The near-term driver would be a continuation of earnings momentum, seasonal strength in home improvement demand, and any positive revisions from the latest quarterly results. The downside risk remains if RSI remains oversold and macro headwinds persist.
    • Key drivers: OTB (open-to-buy) demand in home improvement, stable cash flow generation, and estimated EBITDA persistence.
    • Upside potential (approx): ~19%
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 480–490 (midpoint around 480; high-end HS near 497)
    • Rationale: With earnings normalization, margin stability, and continued buybacks, HD could grind higher toward the high-2-digit percent range over a year as the multiple perhaps expands from the mid-20s forward.
    • Key drivers: Sustained margin discipline, share repurchases, and a healthier housing market backdrop improving discretionary spend at HD stores.
    • Upside potential (approx): ~27–31% to the high end; ~18–22% to the median (450–480).
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 550 (midpoint for long-run bull case)
    • Rationale: If HD preserves strong cash generation, expands private label assortments, continues efficient store productivity, and leverages e-commerce, the multiple could re-rate modestly as long-run earnings power becomes clearer. Add potential capital return impact from ongoing buybacks and potential strategic store growth.
    • Key drivers: Margin stabilization into the mid-teens, continued revenue growth from core categories, e-commerce evolution, and efficient capital allocation.
    • Upside potential (approx): ~46% (to 550 from 377.69)

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Consumer sensitivity to macro conditions, housing/ remodeling cycles, and higher interest rates affecting large-ticket discretionary purchases.
    • Elevated leverage signals (as given in the data) could impact balance sheet flexibility if operating cash flow pressure arises.
    • Competitive landscape (online and big-box retailers) and gross margin pressure from product mix and logistics costs.
  • Opportunities
    • Continued strength in home improvement demand with resilient cash flow generation and ongoing dividend returns.
    • Margin expansion opportunities via store efficiency, private label growth, and pricing optimization.
    • Share repurchase program support and potential accretion to per-share earnings.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to Moderate Buy (with a bias toward upside over the 12–24 month window)
    • Rationale: The current price sits below the 50-day moving average with oversold momentum (RSI in the 6–10 range in October 2025), suggesting potential near-term rebound. The consensus targets imply meaningful upside, particularly toward the median (450) and high (497) levels. The earnings trajectory shown in the Recent Earnings Summary points to ongoing profitability and margin stability, though the Debt/Equity signal raises concerns about leverage that should be monitored. If earnings momentum continues and revisions trend positively, HD could move toward the 450–500 range over the next 3–12 months, with further upside possible beyond 12 months if long-run growth drivers play out.
    • Expected return potential over 12–24 months: Approximately 15–30% depending on path of earnings re-rating, macro conditions, and execution of capital allocation.

Tables (Key Data in Markdown)

Valuation and Fundamentals

  • Table: Valuation Snapshot | Metric | Value | |---|---| | Current price | 377.69 | | Market cap (USD) | 375,947,591,680 | | Enterprise value (USD) | 823,154,900,992 | | Trailing P/E | 25.69 | | Forward P/E | 24.21 | | Price to book | 35.24 | | Return on Equity | 1.94 (≈193.9% if read as percent) | | Return on Assets | 0.14% | | Net profit margin | 8.86% | | Gross margin | 33.35% | | Operating margin | 14.48% | | Debt/Equity | 580.59 | | Total cash | 2.80B | | Total debt | 61.92B | | Dividend yield | 2.4% | | 5-year avg dividend yield | 2.3% | | Beta | 1.001 |

Earnings Snapshot

  • Table: Recent Earnings Summary (USD) | Quarter | EBITDA | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS | Operating Income | Total Revenue | Cost of Revenue | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2025-07-31 | 7,584,000,000 | 4,551,000,000 | 4.58 | 4.59 | 6,555,000,000 | 45,277,000,000 | 29,954,000,000 | | 2025-04-30 | 6,151,000,000 | 3,433,000,000 | 3.45 | 3.46 | 5,155,000,000 | 39,856,000,000 | 26,397,000,000 | | 2025-01-31 | 5,534,000,000 | 2,997,000,000 | 3.02 | 3.02 | 4,525,000,000 | 39,704,000,000 | 26,670,000,000 | | 2024-10-31 | 6,443,000,000 | 3,648,000,000 | 3.67 | 3.68 | 5,448,000,000 | 40,217,000,000 | 26,699,000,000 | | 2024-07-31 | 7,538,000,000 | 4,561,000,000 | 4.60 | 4.61 | 6,618,000,000 | 43,175,000,000 | 28,759,000,000 |

EPS Trend (Diluted)

  • Table: EPS Trend (period vs. current and historical deltas) | Period | Current | 7 days ago | 30 days ago | 60 days ago | 90 days ago | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 3.85213 | 3.85344 | 3.84509 | 3.84788 | 3.84858 | | +1q | 2.92306 | 2.92154 | 2.91758 | 2.89106 | 2.89294 | | 0y | 15.01556 | 15.01592 | 15.00663 | 15.0121 | 15.01191 | | +1y | 16.27223 | 16.27479 | 16.27521 | 16.33019 | 16.3132 |

EPS Revisions

  • Table: EPS Revisions (counts) | Period | Up (7d) | Up (30d) | Down (30d) | Down (7d) | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 0q | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | | +1q | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | | 0y | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | | +1y | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |

Technical Indicators (latest)

  • 50-day MA: 401.6
  • RSI (14): 6.2 (range ~6–9 across Oct 2025)
  • MACD (12,26,9): MACD ≈ -5.8; Signal ≈ -1.7

Analyst Targets

  • Table: Analyst Consensus | Item | Value | |---|---:| | Current price | 377.69 | | Analysts covered | 33 | | Target Low | 335.0 | | Target Median | 450.0 | | Target High | 497.0 | | Target Mean | 438.85 |

Price Target Sensitivities (from current price)

TargetUpside / Downside vs. current priceApproximate % Move
Low (335)-42.69-11.3%
Median (450)+72.31+19.1%
High (497)+119.31+31.6%
Mean (438.85)+61.16+16.2%

Key Takeaways

  • The stock trades below the near-term moving average, with oversold momentum metrics suggesting a potential bounce if buyers step in.
  • Analysts are broadly constructive, with a median target at 450 and a mean target near 439, implying mid-teens upside on a 12-month horizon and higher potential if multiple re-rates occur.
  • The earnings narrative shows stronger quarterly EPS in the most recent quarter (diluted EPS ~4.58 in 2025-07-31 versus lower prior periods), with revisions skewed toward upgrades in the 0q and +1q windows.
  • Long-term upside, anchored by the 3+ year view, could be supported by margin stability, cash generation, and capital allocation, but the debt/leverage snapshot requires careful monitoring.

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