The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS).

Here is a comprehensive analysis for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) with the requested horizontal lines drawn and a thorough price-target and fundamentals/technical review.

Drawing completed

  • Low Target line drawn at 570 (green)
  • Median Target line drawn at 762 (orange)
  • High Target line drawn at 855 (red)
  • All lines extend 30 days from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
  • Ticker: GS

Technical note: The lines are positioned using the providedLow/Median/High targets:

  • 570 (Low) – color #00AA00
  • 762 (Median) – color #FFA500
  • 855 (High) – color #FF0000

Now, the comprehensive analysis.

Executive Summary

  • The stock sits between the analyst median (762) and the high target (855) with the current price at 796.78, suggesting limited upside to the median in the near term but potential upside toward the high target if earnings momentum and sentiment improve.
  • Key positives include robust profitability metrics (gross margin ~82.8%, operating margin ~35.7%), solid profitability (ROE ~12.7%), and a meaningful dividend yield (~2.0%).
  • The balance of cash and debt shows substantial liquidity on hand (Total cash ≈ $983B vs. Total debt ≈ $732B), implying net cash and strong balance-sheet risk support, but the Debt-to-Equity ratio shown (588x) is anomalously high relative to typical GS capital structures. Treat this figure as data-driven in this dataset with caution unless corroborated by the company’s filings.
  • Near-term technicals show price comfortably above the 50-day moving average, RSI around mid-50s, and a MACD that has recently shown signs of a bearish cross, suggesting cautious near-term continuation unless momentum improves.
  • Analyst coverage (19 analysts) shows a median target of $762 and a high of $855, with a mean around $752.37, implying implied upside is contingent on earnings momentum and multiple expansion.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key Valuation and Health Metrics (as provided)

    • Current price: 796.78
    • Market cap: 241,202,118,656 (≈ $241.2B)
    • Enterprise value: 14,547,667,968 (≈ $14.55B) [Note: This appears inconsistent with GS’s scale; likely a data misalignment. Use with caution; typical GS EV should be near market cap minus net cash, not a fraction of market cap.]
    • Trailing P/E: 17.54
    • Forward P/E: 19.17
    • PEG ratio: not provided (null)
    • Price to book: 2.3158
    • ROE: 12.74%
    • ROA: 0.90%
    • Profit margins: 28.40%
    • Gross margins: 82.78%
    • Operating margins: 35.74%
    • Debt to equity: 588.39 (noting data plausibility concerns; GS typically has a significantly lower ratio; verify with 10-K/10-Q)
    • Total cash: $983.18B
    • Total debt: $732.19B
    • Dividend yield: 2.03%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 2.22%
    • Beta: 1.415

  • Observations

    • The firm demonstrates strong profitability and cash generation, with a healthy gross margin and solid operating margin.
    • The cash cushion dwarfs reported debt, indicating substantial liquidity on hand. However, the Debt-to-Equity figure appears anomalously high for a bank holding company; cross-check with official filings for accuracy.
    • Valuation is reasonable on a trailing basis (P/E ~17.5) and modestly higher on a forward basis (P/E ~19.2), with a price-to-book around 2.32.

  • Snapshot Table: Key Fundamentals

    • Metric: Value
    • Current price: 796.78
    • Market cap: 241.2B
    • EV: 14.55B (data caveat)
    • Trailing P/E: 17.54
    • Forward P/E: 19.17
    • P/B: 2.316
    • ROE: 12.74%
    • ROA: 0.90%
    • Profit margin: 28.40%
    • Gross margin: 82.78%
    • Operating margin: 35.74%
    • Debt/Equity: 588.39
    • Total cash: 983.18B
    • Total debt: 732.19B
    • Dividend yield: 2.03%
    • 5-year dividend yield avg: 2.22%
    • Beta: 1.415

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected figures from the provided quarterly data)

    • 2025-06-30 (most recent quarter shown):
      • Diluted EPS: 10.91
      • Basic EPS: 11.03
      • Net income (continuing ops): 3.723B
      • Total revenue: 14.583B
    • 2025-03-31:
      • Diluted EPS: 14.12
      • Basic EPS: 14.25
    • 2024-12-31:
      • Diluted EPS: 11.95
      • Basic EPS: 12.13
    • 2024-09-30:
      • Diluted EPS: 8.40
      • Basic EPS: 8.52
    • 2024-06-30:
      • Diluted EPS: 8.62
      • Basic EPS: 8.73

  • EPS Trend (directional view)

    • Current quarter (0q): Diluted EPS ≈ 10.84
    • +1q: ≈ 11.37
    • 0y (trailing year): ≈ 46.90
    • +1y (next year): ≈ 53.48
    • Interpretation: The sequence shows quarter-to-quarter uptick in the latest reported periods (positive momentum Q/Q), and an improving trailing year EPS trend YoY.

  • EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment changes)

    • 0q: UpLast7days = 2; UpLast30days = 4; DownLast30days = 1; DownLast7days = 0
    • +1q: UpLast7days = 2; UpLast30days = 5; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7days = 0
    • 0y: UpLast7days = 2; UpLast30days = 6; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7days = 0
    • +1y: UpLast7days = 2; UpLast30days = 5; DownLast30days = 0; DownLast7days = 0
    • Interpretation: A net positive revision trend across 7d/30d windows, suggesting analyst upgrading expectations, though qualitative context (e.g., wins in trading, IB fees, or asset management segments) would be needed for a deeper read.

  • Earnings Quality

    • Revenue and margins: Total Revenue ≈ $14.583B for the latest period (six months? Quarter-year context needed). Gross margins are robust at ~83%, indicating strong core profitability; Operating margins around ~36% also supportive of earnings quality.
    • Margin stability and sensitivity: Given the high gross margin, earnings are more heavily impacted by operating efficiency and non-operating items. The data show meaningful quarterly variability in EPS, consistent with cyclicality and possibly one-off adjustments (unusual items are present in the data for "Tax Effect of Unusual Items" and "Total Unusual Items").

  • Key Tables (selected)

    • Earnings Summary Table (selected quarters)
      • 2025-06-30: Net Income (continuing ops) 3.723B; Diluted EPS 10.91; Basic EPS 11.03
      • 2025-03-31: Net Income 4.738B; Diluted EPS 14.12; Basic EPS 14.25
      • 2024-12-31: Net Income 4.111B; Diluted EPS 11.95; Basic EPS 12.13
      • 2024-09-30: Net Income 2.990B; Diluted EPS 8.40; Basic EPS 8.52
      • 2024-06-30: Net Income 3.043B; Diluted EPS 8.62; Basic EPS 8.73

Technical Analysis

  • Current price action and levels

    • Current price: 796.78
    • Price vs. 50-day Moving Average (MA): MA ≈ 754.1 on latest 50-day series; price is above MA by ~42.7, indicating a bullish short-term tilt.
    • RSI (14): Latest ≈ 56.4 (mid-range), suggesting neither overbought nor oversold; room for upside without immediate momentum fatigue.
    • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD ≈ 11.9; Signal ≈ 15.1; MACD is below the signal line, indicating recent bearish MACD momentum despite the price run, i.e., a potential near-term pause or pullback unless momentum improves.

  • Moving averages

    • 50-day MA trending higher into early October data, supporting a constructive intermediate-term trend.

  • RSI and MACD interpretation

    • RSI in mid-50s supports a balanced stance; not overheated.
    • MACD crossovers/timing indicate a potential near-term consolidation or modest pullback unless there is a new bullish cross.

  • Key technical takeaway

    • The stock is technically constructive on a price above the 50-day MA with a healthy but not exuberant momentum signal. If price consolidates around the 760–800 range, the chart would remain constructive toward the 855 target, given the current price and the supported trendline.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Analyst coverage and targets

    • Number of analysts: 19
    • Target Low: 570
    • Target Median: 762
    • Target High: 855
    • Target Mean (avg): 752.37
    • Current price: 796.78

  • Interpretation

    • The current price sits above the median target, suggesting consensus expectations are that GS may see limited upside in the near term relative to the more optimistic high target; upside potential to the high target exists if earnings momentum sustains and sentiment improves.
    • The gap between current price and high target indicates upside if catalysts align, but the near-term path may be softer toward the median target.

  • Potential catalysts

    • Earnings momentum: Positive revisions shown in EPS revisions data; potential beat/raise scenarios.
    • Macro/Markets environment: A healthier-than-expected market backdrop can boost IB activity, trading volumes, and asset management flows.
    • Capital return: Share buybacks and dividend policy support total returns.
    • Structural business strengths: GS’s diversified franchise across investment banking, trading, and asset management.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

All data referenced: current price 796.78; targets Low 570, Median 762, High 855; 19 analysts; Target Mean 752.37. Also consider earnings and technicals outlined above.

  • Short-Term (3 months)

    • Price Target: 762 (Median)
    • Justification:
      • Near-term technicals show a modest MACD rollover and a price trading above but not dramatically over the 50-day MA; RSI in mid-50s suggests room for a pullback if market risk-off conditions emerge.
      • Current price is already above the median target; a pullback toward the median can occur in a choppy market, especially if macro headwinds or sector rotations arise.
    • Key drivers:
      • Analyst revisions are positive but not extreme; a pause or minor pullback is plausible.
      • Confirmatory bullish signals (e.g., positive earnings surprises, improving momentum indicators, or a MACD bullish cross) would be needed to extend upside beyond 762.

  • Mid-Term (12 months)

    • Price Target: 855 (High)
    • Justification:
      • High target implies potential for multiple expansion and earnings momentum not fully priced in yet.
      • EPS trend shows resilient quarterly EPS (0q ≈ 10.84; +1q ≈ 11.37) with a positive YoY trend (+0y ≈ 46.90; +1y ≈ 53.48). Upside in revisions (upwards) supports earnings resilience.
      • Dividend yield remains constructive; healthy profitability margins can sustain earnings growth and validation of a higher multiple.
    • Key drivers:
      • Sustained EPS growth and positive revisions over successive quarters.
      • Strong M&A environment and IB activity boosting fee income and advisory revenues.
      • Continued net cash position and balance-sheet strength enabling growth investments or returns.

  • Long-Term (3+ years)

    • Price Target: Not explicitly provided beyond the 12-month high; use the 12-month high target as an anchor for a longer horizon or construct a scenario-based range.
    • Reasoned range (scenario-based):
      • If earnings momentum persists and multiple expansions continue, a plausible long-term target could approach the upper-900s to low-1,000s range, contingent on sustained ROE, scale benefits, growth in Asset Management, and favorable capital markets conditions.
    • Important caveat:
      • Long-term targets depend on market cycles, regulatory changes, and product mix performance. The dataset does not provide a formal numeric long-term target beyond the 12-month high; a forward-looking plan should include downside risk controls and scenario analysis.

Summary Target Table (selected figures)

  • Target Low: 570
  • Target Median: 762
  • Target High: 855
  • Current price: 796.78
  • Short-Term (3m) target: 762
  • Mid-Term (12m) target: 855
  • Long-Term (3+ years) target: qualitative range with potential upside beyond 855 under favorable earnings and macro conditions (rough scenario range 900–1,000+, not explicitly provided in the data)

Notes on valuation and targets:

  • Price-to-book, profitability margins and cash/debt mix support a high-quality earnings profile, but the data has a potentially anomalous EV and Debt-to-Equity figure. Cross-check with official filings for accuracy before drawing conclusions about leverage risk.
  • The current price is above the median target and close to the high target, suggesting limited near-term upside unless catalysts emerge. However, the improving EPS trend and positive revisions open the door for upside over the 12-month horizon.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks

    • Market risk: Higher macro volatility, lower trading volumes, and reduced IB advisory activity could compress earnings.
    • Leverage/Balance-sheet: The reported debt-to-equity figure is unusually high; if debt servicing costs rise or regulatory constraints increase, ROE could be pressured.
    • Regulation and macro policy: Changes in financial regulation or tax policy could affect profitability drivers (trading, underwriting, asset management).

  • Key Opportunities

    • Earnings upside: Continued positive EPS revisions and stronger-than-expected quarterly results could push the multiple toward the high target.
    • Share repurchases and dividends: Ongoing capital returns can support total return.
    • Growth in Asset Management and wealth management segments: Structural growth in fee-based businesses can sustain margin stability.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold with a constructive tilt toward Buy if near-term momentum improves and the stock can sustain price above the 50-day MA with a bullish MACD re-assertion. The current price sits above the median target and near the high target; meaningful upside requires a sustained earnings beat and positive revisions continuation.
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential:
    • Base case (assuming near-term consolidation and mid-term momentum): approximately 0–8% upside versus $796.78, depending on whether the price tests the median (762) or moves toward the high target (855).
    • Upside scenario (constructive earnings momentum and positive revisions): potential to approach the high target around $855 within 12 months, implying roughly ~7% upside from the current price, with further upside beyond the 12-month horizon if earnings growth and multiple expansion persist.
    • Downside risk: A move below the 762 med/570 low levels would reflect a shift in momentum or earnings disappointment, implying meaningful downside risk.

Appendix: Data-driven quick-reference tables

  • Price Targets and Valuation Snapshot

    • Current price: 796.78
    • Target Low: 570.00
    • Target Median: 762.00
    • Target High: 855.00
    • Target Mean: 752.37
    • Analysts: 19

  • Key Fundamentals (selected)

    • Market cap: 241.2B
    • EV: 14.55B (note: data caveat)
    • Trailing P/E: 17.54
    • Forward P/E: 19.17
    • P/B: 2.316
    • ROE: 12.74%
    • ROA: 0.90%
    • Profit Margin: 28.40%
    • Gross Margin: 82.78%
    • Operating Margin: 35.74%
    • Debt/Equity: 588.39
    • Total Cash: 983.18B
    • Total Debt: 732.19B
    • Dividend Yield: 2.03%
    • 5-Year Avg Dividend Yield: 2.22%
    • Beta: 1.415

  • Earnings Overview (selected quarters)

    • 2025-06-30: Net Income (continuing) 3.723B; Diluted EPS 10.91
    • 2025-03-31: Net Income 4.738B; Diluted EPS 14.12
    • 2024-12-31: Net Income 4.111B; Diluted EPS 11.95
    • 2024-09-30: Net Income 2.990B; Diluted EPS 8.40
    • 2024-06-30: Net Income 3.043B; Diluted EPS 8.62

  • EPS Trend Summary

    • Current 0q: 10.84
    • +1q: 11.37
    • 0y: 46.90
    • +1y: 53.48

  • EPS Revisions (counts)

    • 0q: Up7d=2, Up30d=4, Down30d=1, Down7d=0
    • +1q: Up7d=2, Up30d=5, Down30d=0, Down7d=0
    • 0y: Up7d=2, Up30d=6, Down30d=0, Down7d=0
    • +1y: Up7d=2, Up30d=5, Down30d=0, Down7d=0

If you’d like, I can refine the long-term target scenario with a formal model (e.g., base/bull/bear scenario) using revenue growth, margin assumptions, and a range of plausible multi-year P/Es to map out a more explicit 3–5 year target trajectory.

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