Alphabet Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Alphabet Inc. (GOOG).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Alphabet Inc. (GOOG).

GOOG - Comprehensive Price Target Analysis as of 2025-10-10

Drawing update

  • Horizontal price target lines drawn (30 days into the future from 2025-10-10):
    • Low Target 185.00 (color: #FF4500) — Line ID: 900688cb8a154de298f74ef4d55bea4d
    • Median Target 246.00 (color: #1E90FF) — Line ID: 6404a060efa54a2cb8fea72915330a0f
    • High Target 285.00 (color: #32CD32) — Line ID: 1f6159ff608d4d359af52496b0396643

Executive Summary

  • GOOG trades around 242.21 with a balanced risk-reward setup. The market prices in a modest near-term upside to the median target, while the high target implies meaningful upside if AI/cloud initiatives accelerate and margins expand. The low target provides a sizable downside risk scenario.
  • Key near-term signals are mixed: price sits above the 50-day MA and current price action shows the stock above trend support, but the RSI is in oversold territory (28.4), suggesting potential near-term mean reversion. MACD remains below its signal, indicating some near-term caution. Longer-term fundamentals remain solid, with strong gross and operating margins and robust cash generation.

Fundamental Analysis

Current Valuation & Financial Health

  • Current Price: 242.21
  • Market Cap: $2.923 trillion
  • Enterprise Value: $2.915 trillion
  • Trailing P/E: 25.82x
  • Forward P/E: 27.06x
  • PEG Ratio: N/A
  • Price to Book: 8.08x
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 34.83%
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 16.79%
  • Profit Margin: 31.12%
  • Gross Margin: 58.94%
  • Operating Margin: 32.43%
  • Debt to Equity: 11.48x
  • Total Cash: $95.15B
  • Total Debt: $41.67B
  • Dividend Yield: 0.34%
  • Five-Year Avg. Dividend Yield: N/A
  • Beta: 1.00

Analyst Coverage & Price Targets

  • Current Price: 242.21
  • Number of Analysts: 18
  • Target Low / Median / High: 185.00 / 246.00 / 285.00
  • Target Mean: 242.21
  • Implied upside from current price:
    • to Median 246.00: ~+1.6%
    • to High 285.00: ~+17.7%
    • to Low 185.00: ~-23.6%

Earnings Analysis

Recent Earnings Summary (Quarter End 2025-06-30)

  • Revenue: $96.43B
  • Gross Profit: $57.39B
  • EBITDA: $39.19B
  • EBIT: $34.19B
  • Operating Income: $31.27B
  • Net Income: $28.20B
  • Diluted EPS: $2.31
  • Basic EPS: $2.33
  • Normalized Income: $26.70B
  • Net Income (Total): $28.20B
  • Diluted Average Shares: 12.198B
  • Basic Average Shares: 12.122B

EPS Trend

  • 0Q (current quarter): $2.315
  • +1Q: $2.566
  • 0Y (TTM-ish perspective): $9.9449
  • +1Y: $10.6814

EPS Revisions (Analyst sentiment shifts)

  • 0Q: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 3; Down Last 30d = 6; Down Last 7d = 2
  • +1Q: Up Last 7d = 2; Up Last 30d = 4; Down Last 30d = 3; Down Last 7d = 0
  • 0Y: Up Last 7d = 1; Up Last 30d = 7; Down Last 30d = 6; Down Last 7d = 2
  • +1Y: Up Last 7d = 3; Up Last 30d = 10; Down Last 30d = 5; Down Last 7d = 1 Interpretation:
  • Near-term revisions (0Q) show more downgrades than upgrades, suggesting some near-term skepticism.
  • Longer-horizon revisions (+1Y) skew more positive (more upgrades than downgrades), indicating improving sentiment about longer-term earnings potential.

Earnings Quality (Revenue Growth, Margins, Sustainability)

  • Revenue has been stable to growing in the latest reported quarter, with solid gross margins (~59%) and healthy operating margins (~32%), supporting earnings durability.
  • EBITDA and EBIT trends reflect efficient cost control and ongoing investment in high-margin areas (e.g., Cloud, YouTube, AI-enabled services).
  • Net income remains strong at $28.2B, underpinning robust cash generation and optionality for capital returns or buybacks.

Technical Analysis

Current Price Action, Support & Resistance

  • Current Price: 242.21
  • 50-Day Moving Average (latest): 225.5
  • The price trades above the 50-day MA, suggesting near-term bullish tilt, with the 50-day MA rising steadily over the prior weeks.
  • RSI (14) – latest: 28.4 (oversold territory)
  • MACD (12,26,9) – latest: MACD 5.2 vs Signal 7.4 (bearish crossover pressure, though MACD remains above zero)

Key Technical Indicators (latest values)

  • 50-Day MA: 225.5
  • RSI (14): 28.4
  • MACD: 5.2; Signal: 7.4 Implications:
  • Price above the 50-day MA indicates a bullish backdrop, but the oversold RSI and MACD below the signal line suggest potential near-term bounce risk and continued volatility.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Analyst Targets

  • Current Price: 242.21
  • Analysts Covered: 18
  • Target Low / Median / High: 185.00 / 246.00 / 285.00
  • Target Mean: 242.21

Interpretation:

  • The median target sits around 246, providing a modest ~1.6% upside from the current price, while the high target suggests potential upside into the mid-20s percentage-wise if catalysts materialize. The low target implies material downside risk if fundamentals deteriorate or multiple expansion stalls.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: 246.00
  • Justification: The stock is near the consensus median; with the RSI in oversold territory, there is potential for a near-term rebound as momentum stabilizes and sentiment shifts from oversold to neutral. The price-to-book and P/E multiples remain reasonable given solid margins and cash generation.
  • Key Drivers:
    • Seasonal ad revenue dynamics stabilizing
    • AI and cloud product cadence improving monetization
    • Modest share repurchases or capital return activity
  • Potential Risk: Macro headwinds, ad market softness, regulatory concerns could cap upside.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: 270.00
  • Justification: If Alphabet sustains growth in Google Cloud and AI-enabled offerings, combined with margin discipline and buyback leverage, a re-rating toward the upper end of the current multiple range is plausible. The high target of 285 suggests a bullish scenario that could materialize if AI-driven monetization accelerates beyond base assumptions.
  • Key Drivers:
    • Cloud growth momentum and enterprise adoption
    • Enhanced AI integration across Search, YouTube, and other services
    • Margin expansion from efficiency gains and operating leverage
    • Steady cash flow and capital returns supporting multiple expansion
  • Potential Risk: Competitive intensity in cloud, regulatory risk, and AI-sustainability concerns.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: 285.00 (bull-case anchor; use of high target)
  • Justification: Over a multi-year horizon, Alphabet’s core moats in search, ecosystem lock-in, and AI-driven productization could support a higher multiple as earnings compound and margins normalize at higher levels. The 3+ year target aligns with the high analyst target, assuming durable ad-market strength, continued cloud leadership, and successful AI monetization.
  • Key Drivers:
    • Deepening AI monetization across core platforms
    • Cloud profitability and enterprise-grade offerings
    • Continued innovation and ecosystem expansion (YouTube, apps, devices)
    • Sustainable capital returns and disciplined cost management
  • Potential Risks: Structural ad-market cyclicality, growing regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressures from major tech ecosystems, and macro shocks.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks:
    • Ad market cyclicality and macro softness impacting revenue
    • Regulatory scrutiny and potential antitrust actions
    • Competitive pressure from hyperscalers and platform ecosystems
    • AI adoption pitfalls, governance, and data/privacy concerns
  • Opportunities:
    • Cloud growth and enterprise AI monetization
    • AI-enabled enhancements across Search, YouTube, and advertising products
    • Share repurchase and potential dividend policy if adopted
    • Structural advantages in data networks and digital services moat

Investment Recommendation

  • Stance: Hold
  • Rationale: The stock trades near a muted upside to the median target with a meaningful high-case upside if AI/cloud initiatives accelerate, but near-term momentum is challenged by oversold conditions and MACD weakness. The balance of risk and reward favors a cautious stance, with upside potential tied to stronger AI monetization and cloud profitability, and downside risk linked to ad-market variability and regulatory developments.
  • Expected Return Potential (12–24 months):
    • Base case (around median target): ~+2% to +6%
    • Bull case (reaching highs near 285): ~+15% to +18%
    • Bear case (low target scenario): ~-20% or more

Key Data Tables

  1. Current Valuation & Core Metrics
  • Table: Valuation & Financial Health (as of 2025-10-10)

Metric | Value

  • Current Price | 242.21
  • Market Cap | $2.923T
  • Enterprise Value | $2.915T
  • Trailing P/E | 25.82x
  • Forward P/E | 27.06x
  • PEG Ratio | N/A
  • Price to Book | 8.08x
  • ROE | 34.83%
  • ROA | 16.79%
  • Profit Margin | 31.12%
  • Gross Margin | 58.94%
  • Operating Margin | 32.43%
  • Debt to Equity | 11.48x
  • Total Cash | $95.15B
  • Total Debt | $41.67B
  • Dividend Yield | 0.34%
  • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | N/A
  • Beta | 1.00
  1. Analyst Targets
  • Table: Analyst Targets

Metric | Value

  • Current Price | 242.21
  • Number of Analysts | 18
  • Target Low | 185.00
  • Target Median | 246.00
  • Target High | 285.00
  • Target Mean | 242.21
  1. Recent Earnings Summary (Quarter End 2025-06-30)
  • Table: Quarterly Earnings Snapshot

Metric | Value (USD)

  • Revenue | 96.43B
  • Gross Profit | 57.39B
  • EBITDA | 39.19B
  • EBIT | 34.19B
  • Operating Income | 31.27B
  • Net Income | 28.20B
  • Diluted EPS | 2.31
  • Basic EPS | 2.33
  • Normalized Income | 26.70B
  • Average Diluted Shares | 12.198B
  • Average Basic Shares | 12.122B
  1. EPS Trend
  • Table: EPS Trend

Period | EPS

  • 0Q Current | 2.31533
  • +1Q | 2.56602
  • 0Y | 9.9449
  • +1Y | 10.68137
  1. EPS Revisions (Up/Down counts)
  • Table: EPS Revisions (counts by period)

Period | Up7d | Up30d | Down30d | Down7d

  • 0Q | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2
  • +1Q | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0
  • 0Y | 1 | 7 | 6 | 2
  • +1Y | 3 | 10 | 5 | 1
  1. Technical Indicators (Latest)
  • Table: Key Technicals (latest date in the dataset)

Indicator | Value

  • 50-Day MA | 225.5
  • Current Price | 242.21
  • RSI (14) | 28.4
  • MACD | 5.2
  • MACD Signal | 7.4

Notes on data sources and interpretation

  • All data points come from the provided metrics in your prompt (valuation, earnings, EPS trends/revisions, and technical indicators).
  • The price target lines drawn reflect the Low (185), Median (246), and High (285) price targets and extend 30 days into the future as requested.
  • The analysis uses the most recent earnings snapshot (quarter ended 2025-06-30) for the “Recent Earnings Summary,” along with the accompanying EPS Trend and EPS Revisions data to gauge momentum and sentiment shifts.

If you’d like, I can adjust the price target horizons (e.g., Short: 3 months, Medium: 9-12 months, Long: 2-3+ years) or tailor the narrative toward a specific investment style (growth, value, or income-focused).

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