Gilead Sciences, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD).

Here is a comprehensive analysis for Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) as of 2025-10-02, along with the requested horizontal price level lines drawn on the price chart.

Horizontal price level lines drawn

  • Low Target (green): 98.00
  • Median Target (blue): 128.00
  • High Target (red): 145.00

Details:

  • Drawn on 2025-10-02 with 30 days extension to 2025-11-01
  • Colors:
    • Low Target: #2ECC71 (green)
    • Median Target: #3498DB (blue)
    • High Target: #E74C3C (red)

Executive Summary

  • GILD trades at 111.15 with a forward P/E near 15x and a trailing P/E around 22x, indicating a more favorable multiple on the forward narrative versus trailing profitability.
  • Consensus price targets imply meaningful upside from the current price, with a median target around 128 and a high target of 145, suggesting 14-30% potential upside over a 12-month horizon.
  • Short- to mid-term momentum is supported by improving quarterly earnings dynamics and positive EPS revisions, but near-term technicals show some headwinds (price below 50-day MA; RSI in the mid-30s; MACD negative), which could temper near-term upside.
  • Debt load remains a key risk area (debt to equity around 127%; net debt substantial), while cash on hand provides some buffer. The dividend yield (~2.85%) remains a factor for income-oriented investors.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key Valuation and Financial Health (selected metrics)
    • Current price: 111.15
    • Market cap: 139.09B
    • Enterprise value: 156.72B
    • Trailing P/E: 22.01
    • Forward P/E: 14.96
    • Price to book: 7.02x
    • Return on equity (ROE): 33.4%
    • Return on assets (ROA): 12.6%
    • Profit margin: 21.9%
    • Gross margin: 78.5%
    • Operating margin: 39.2%
    • Debt to equity: 127.34x
    • Total cash: $6.06B
    • Total debt: $24.95B
    • Dividend yield: 2.85%
    • 5-year average dividend yield: 3.89%
    • Beta: 0.379
  • Observations
    • The forward multiple (14.96x) suggests a conservative earnings growth story relative to the trailing multiple, which is often favorable if the company can sustain or accelerate earnings growth.
    • A relatively high debt load (debt to equity) is a notable risk factor, though cash reserves and operating profitability help support serviceability of debt.
    • Margin structure is robust (gross and operating margins are high), contributing to earnings durability.

Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)

  • 2025-06-30
    • Diluted EPS: 1.56
    • Net income (continuing ops): 1.96B
    • Normalized income: 2.048B
    • EBITDA: 3.374B
    • Total revenue / operating revenue: 7.081B
  • 2025-03-31
    • Diluted EPS: 1.04
    • Net income (continuing ops): 1.315B
    • Normalized income: 1.857B
    • EBITDA: 2.605B
  • 2024-12-31
    • Diluted EPS: 1.42
    • Net income (continuing ops): 1.783B
    • Normalized income: 1.878B
    • EBITDA: 3.109B
  • 2024-09-30
    • Diluted EPS: 1.00
    • Net income (continuing ops): 1.253B
    • Normalized income: 2.830B
    • EBITDA: 1.884B
  • 2024-06-30
    • Diluted EPS: 1.29
    • Net income (continuing ops): 1.614B
    • Normalized income: 1.952B
    • EBITDA: 2.984B
  • Revenue trajectory shown across quarters remains robust, with normalization and EBITDA figures suggesting durable cash generation, even as some quarters show volatility.

EPS Trend (highlights)

  • Trailing 0q diluted EPS: 2.1518
  • 1q ahead (next quarter): 2.1126
  • 0y (past year trailing): 8.1006
  • 1y (next year expectation): 8.5982
  • Interpretation: The quarterly EPS metric has hovered near the low- to mid-2x range for the most recent quarter, with annualized trends showing some growth into the next year. The trend indicates improving annualized earnings strength, albeit with some volatility.

EPS Revisions (sentiment signals)

  • 0q: Up last7d (1), Up last30d (1), Down last30d (1), Down last7d (0)
  • +1q: Up last7d (1), Up last30d (1), Down last30d (1), Down last7d (0)
  • 0y: Up last7d (2), Up last30d (6), Down last30d (1), Down last7d (0)
  • +1y: Up last7d (2), Up last30d (6), Down last30d (1), Down last7d (0)
  • Interpretation: The revisions data show a tilt toward upward revisions over both near-term and longer horizons, suggesting improving earnings visibility from analysts.

Technical Analysis (last 60 days)

  • 50-day moving average (MA): The latest MA value is about 113.9 (with price around 111.15). The price is currently slightly below the 50-day MA, implying near-term softness or consolidation relative to the recent mid-MAY to early-SEP rally.
  • RSI (14): Latest RSI around 35.1, indicating modest to oversold momentum territory, suggesting potential for near-term upside if buyers step in.
  • MACD (12,26,9): Latest MACD is negative (-0.6) with a negative signal (-0.3), adding to the near-term bearish tilt on momentum, though breadth of the move and potential RSI divergence could imply a near-term rebound risk.
  • Current price action: 111.15 vs 50-day MA of ~113.9 suggests price strength could be constrained near-term, but the lower-to-mid single-digit gap leaves room for a rebound if catalysts materialize.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 111.15
  • Target Low: 98.00
  • Target Mean: 125.19
  • Target Median: 128.00
  • Target High: 145.00
  • Number of analysts: 25
  • Observation: The distribution points to meaningful upside versus the current price, with a median at 128 and a high at 145. The forward multiple assistance (14.96x) supports a constructive, albeit not explosive, upside path.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)

  • Target: around 125–128
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Upward EPS revisions observed in recent periods (EPS revisions show more ups than downs across both 0q and +1y horizons).
    • Forward P/E remains attractive at roughly 15x, with a current price of 111.15 vs. a median target of 128.
    • Technicals show potential for a near-term bounce given RSI near oversold levels and a bear-leaning MACD that could revert.
  • Key drivers: earnings normalization, upward revisions, valuation support, near-term technical rebound.

Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Target: around 128–145
  • Justification and drivers:
    • Median target at 128 and high target at 145 imply a 15–30% upside over roughly a year.
    • Forward earnings visibility alongside solid gross and operating margins supports earnings durability.
    • Dividend yield (~2.85%) adds a yield-based component to total return.
  • Key drivers: continued earnings growth and margin stability, favorable multiple on forward earnings, potential earnings beats and revisions sustaining positive sentiment.

Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Target: around 145 (as the high target)
  • Justification and drivers:
    • The long-run target aligns with the higher end of consensus expectations; upside would rely on continued earnings expansion and margin resilience.
    • Durable profitability (high gross and operating margins) supports multiple expansion potential if growth drivers sustain.
  • Key drivers: sustained revenue growth, margin expansion, and stable cash generation; potential for upside if pipeline achievements or market conditions improve.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks
    • Elevated debt burden relative to equity (debt to equity around 127x) and substantial gross/net leverage could pressure financial flexibility in a higher rate environment.
    • Industry competition and potential patent cliffs or generic pressure could threaten long-term revenue stability.
    • Macro volatility and pharmaceutical pricing dynamics may influence cash flow and demand.
  • Key Opportunities
    • Strong margins and durable profitability as a base for dividend stability and potential buybacks.
    • Upward sentiment from EPS revisions and solid forward earnings outlook can drive multiple expansion.
    • A diversified product portfolio and solid cash generation could support ongoing investment in R&D and pipeline optimization.

Investment Recommendation

  • View: Hold to accumulate
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential:
    • Base case target realization to the median target (~$128) implies roughly 14–15% upside from the current price (~111).
    • High-case upside to the high target (~$145) implies roughly 30% upside.
  • Rationale:
    • Attractive forward earnings multiple and solid profit margins support upside potential.
    • Near-term technicals show some softness, but improving earnings revisions and a relatively conservative valuation provide upside optionality.
    • Debt load remains a meaningful risk; the outcome will hinge on continued earnings durability, cash generation, and strategic balance-sheet management.

Key Figures (at-a-glance)

  • Current price: 111.15
  • Forward P/E: 14.96x
  • Trailing P/E: 22.01x
  • Price-to-book: 7.02x
  • ROE: 33.4%
  • ROA: 12.6%
  • Profit margin: 21.9%
  • Gross margin: 78.5%
  • Operating margin: 39.2%
  • Debt/Equity: 127.34x
  • Net cash position: Net debt ≈ 18.89B (approx. 24.95B debt minus 6.06B cash)
  • Dividend yield: 2.85%
  • Analyst coverage: 25 analysts
  • Price targets: Low 98, Mean 125.19, Median 128, High 145

Supplemental chart/line references

  • Drawn price levels on the chart:
    • Low Target 98 (green)
    • Median Target 128 (blue)
    • High Target 145 (red)
  • Time horizon for line extension: 30 days beyond 2025-10-02 (to 2025-11-01)

Notes

  • All numerical data in this report references the numbers you provided. Where multiple quarters or line items exist, the most representative quarter trailing data were highlighted (not all rows are shown here to avoid clutter).
  • The price targets reflect consensus from 25 analysts, with the distribution indicating upside relative to current price, consistent with the forward multiple and earnings trend data provided.

If you’d like, I can tailor the Price Target Analysis for a specific exogenous scenario (e.g., a higher/lower rate environment, one or two synergistic drug pipeline milestones) or prepare an alternative risk-adjusted return framework.

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