Gilead Sciences, Inc. Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD).
Price target lines drawn
- Low Target (100): drawn and extended to 2025-11-09 using color #1E90FF
- Median Target (128): drawn and extended to 2025-11-09 using color #FFA500
- High Target (145): drawn and extended to 2025-11-09 using color #32CD32
Executive Summary Gilead Sciences (GILD) sits in a mature pharmaceutical franchise with a strong cash position and a solid dividend, but with notable debt and an earnings trajectory that hinges on pipeline performance and product mix. With a current price around 116.74 and a forward multiple trimmed by improved visibility into earnings, the stock offers a measured upside to the analyst mean/median targets while presenting downside risk tied to pipeline outcomes and patent/profit durability. The three price targets (100, 128, 145) provide clear levels to watch as catalysts unfold.
- Price action stance: trading above the 50-day moving average, with bullish MACD momentum and a mid-range RSI, suggesting modest near-term upside potential.
- Valuation: trailing P/E ~23x, forward P/E ~15.7x, P/B ~7.4x. Favorable forward multiple vis-a-vis earnings growth expectations, but leverage (debt/EBITDA) remains a consideration.
- Dividend: 2.67% yield, below the five-year average (3.89%), reflecting a more conservative payout relative to history.
Fundamental Analysis Key metrics (as of today)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 116.74 |
| Market Cap | $144.85B |
| Enterprise Value | $165.53B |
| Trailing P/E | 23.16x |
| Forward P/E | 15.71x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
| Price to Book | 7.37x |
| ROE | 33.40% |
| ROA | 12.62% |
| Profit Margin | 21.87% |
| Gross Margin | 78.53% |
| Operating Margin | 39.16% |
| Debt to Equity | 127.34x |
| Total Cash | $6.06B |
| Total Debt | $24.95B |
| Dividend Yield | 2.67% |
| Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 3.89% |
| Beta | 0.354 |
Interpretation:
- Substantial profitability with robust gross and operating margins. Return metrics imply solid efficiency, but leverage is a notable trait (very high debt-to-equity in context).
- Cash reserves exist but are modest relative to total debt; net debt ≈ $18.89B (Total Debt − Total Cash).
- Forward earnings multiple implies potential upside if pipeline milestones materialize, but valuation remains sensitive to earnings visibility and leverage management.
- Dividend yield is attractive for income-focused investors, but materially below the five-year average.
Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights)
- Normalized EBITDA across periods shows a range roughly between $3.22B and $3.88B.
- Net Income from continuing operations (net of minority interests) hovered around $1.25B–$1.96B in the periods shown.
- Diluted EPS ranged from about $1.04 in the weak quarter to $1.56 in the strongest quarter shown.
- Total revenue for the periods shown was in the $6.65B–$7.57B band.
Short digest by period (selected figures)
| Period | Normalized EBITDA | Net Income (Continuing Ops) | Diluted EPS | Total Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | $3.483B | $1.960B | $1.56 | $7.081B |
| 2025-03-31 | $3.284B | $1.315B | $1.04 | $6.667B |
| 2024-12-31 | $3.224B | $1.783B | $1.42 | $7.569B |
| 2024-09-30 | $3.881B | $1.253B | $1.00 | $7.545B |
| 2024-06-30 | $3.414B | $1.614B | $1.29 | $6.953B |
Key Earnings Signals
- Normalized EBITDA has remained solid on a quarterly basis, though the quarterly quarterly EPS swing (e.g., 1.56 in 2025-06-30 vs 1.04 in 2025-03-31) indicates some quarterly volatility, likely reflecting mix, R&D amortization, and unusual items.
- Net income from continuing operations shows resilience, with mid- to high-single-digit year-over-year improvement on a trailing basis.
- The mix of "Total Revenue" remains healthy, though there is some quarterly variability, which is typical for a large pharma with multiple franchises and collaboration revenues.
EPS Trend
- 0q (most recent quarter): Diluted EPS 2.15; 7d/30d/60d/90d trend: 2.152, 2.151, 2.151, 2.163
- +1q: Diluted EPS 2.10; trend: 2.113, 2.112, 2.112, 2.023
- 0y: Diluted EPS 8.09; trend: 8.101, 8.099, 8.068, 8.002
- +1y: Diluted EPS 8.59; trend: 8.598, 8.596, 8.543, 8.545
Interpretation:
- The company shows a modest quarter-over-quarter lift in the most recent quarter (2.15 vs 2.10). The trailing-12-month EPS sits around the high 8s, reflecting several quarters of solid profitability.
- The EPS trend indicates a multi-quarter stabilization with modest year-over-year growth in the longer horizon (+1y vs 0y).
EPS Revisions
- 0q: Up Last7D: 1; Up Last30D: 1; Down Last30D: 1; Down Last7D: 0
- +1q: Up Last7D: 0; Up Last30D: 0; Down Last30D: 1; Down Last7D: 1
- 0y: Up Last7D: 2; Up Last30D: 3; Down Last30D: 1; Down Last7D: 0
- +1y: Up Last7D: 2; Up Last30D: 3; Down Last30D: 1; Down Last7D: 0
Interpretation:
- Near-term revisions show a small net tilt toward upward revisions in 0q and 0y periods, but the +1q and +1y brackets show more downgrades than upgrades, indicating some negative sentiment in longer horizons.
- Overall, revisions imply cautious optimism in the near term but a tempered longer-term view.
Technical Analysis (as of the latest data)
- 50-day Moving Average (latest): around 114.1 (the series ends 2025-10-09 with MA 114.1)
- Price (latest): 116.74
- Price vs 50-day MA: Price is slightly above the 50-day MA, a modest bullish signal.
- RSI (14): latest around 56.6 (mid-range, not overbought)
- MACD (12,26,9): latest MACD ≈ 0.6; Signal ≈ -0.1, indicating bullish momentum recently
- Current technical takeaway: The stock is in a constructive setup, trading above the 50-day MA with positive MACD momentum and a mid-range RSI, suggesting potential upside, with modest volatility risk given the stock’s earnings sensitivity and debt considerations.
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Current Price: 116.74
- Number of Analysts: 25
- Target Low / Median / High: 100.0 / 128.0 / 145.0
- Target Mean: 125.91
- Market consensus: Modest upside from current levels with a wide target range, reflecting varying views on pipeline risk vs. earnings durability.
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 128 (Median) or roughly in the 125–129 band
- Justification:
- Current price around 116.7 with a forward P/E in the mid-teens, suggesting earnings-driven upside as expectations align with the forward trajectory.
- Technicals support near-term upside: price above 50-day MA (~114), RSI mid-range, MACD bullish cross dynamics.
- Analyst sentiment shows near-term upside potential with a median target of 128 and mean near 126.
- Key drivers:
- Stabilization of earnings and potential near-term catalysts from pipeline updates or regulatory news.
- Modest improvement in earnings revisions in the near term.
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: 145 (High) or higher within the 140–145 zone
- Justification:
- Forward valuation (~15.7x) suggests continued earnings visibility could push multiples higher if pipeline milestones materialize and margins stabilize or improve.
- Analyst High target at 145 supports upside potential if near-term momentum sustains, aided by a relatively disciplined debt profile and cash generation.
- Key drivers:
- Pipeline milestones across Infectious Diseases and oncology/hyperimmune spaces.
- Margin expansion from scale and potential cost containment.
- Continued dividend support in a lower-rate environment.
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target (scenario-based): 150–165
- Justification:
- Assuming continued earnings resilience, better leverage management, and the achievement of durable revenue growth from late-stage assets or new indications, a longer horizon could warrant multiple expansion above the 12–24 month target.
- Potential drivers: pipeline progress driving revenue diversification, improved operating leverage, and capital allocation efficiency (buybacks, optionality on strategic partnerships).
- Risks:
- Patent cliffs, competitive dynamics, regulatory risk, and slower-than-expected pipeline outcomes could cap upside.
- Note: The high analyst target present (145) suggests a capped upside scenario in the near term; the longer-term path would depend on actual pipeline success and efficiency gains.
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Risks:
- High leverage level (debt/equity) constrains financial flexibility and elevates sensitivity to interest rate changes.
- Pipeline risk: dependence on remdesivir-related franchises and other antiviral/oncology/HIV products for revenue growth.
- Patent expiries and competition could pressure pricing and market share.
- Market headwinds in pharma, including regulatory scrutiny and pricing pressures.
- Opportunities:
- Potential upside from new approvals or expanded label indications across antiviral and oncology portfolios.
- Margin stabilization/expansion with scaling, cost controls, and improved product mix.
- Share repurchase activity and disciplined capital allocation could support earnings per share over time.
Investment Recommendation
- View: Hold to modestly accumulate
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential: roughly 5–15% depending on pipeline milestones, macro environment, and leverage management. Favorable risk-reward if the pipeline milestones come through and the company maintains EBITDA and cash flow strength, with a caveat on balance sheet risk.
- Rationale: The stock offers a reasonable upside from the current level given forward earnings visibility and a supportive technical setup, but the leverage and pipeline risk keep upside capped short term. A patient holder could benefit from dividend yield and potential M&A or pipeline-driven upside, while being mindful of downside risk around regulatory/patent developments.
Appendix: Numerical Tables (all data as provided or derived) Key Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 116.74 |
| Market Cap | $144,851,795,968 |
| Enterprise Value | $165,529,419,776 |
| Trailing P/E | 23.16x |
| Forward P/E | 15.71x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
| Price to Book | 7.37x |
| ROE | 33.40% |
| ROA | 12.62% |
| Profit Margin | 21.87% |
| Gross Margin | 78.53% |
| Operating Margin | 39.16% |
| Debt to Equity | 127.34x |
| Total Cash | $6.06B |
| Total Debt | $24.95B |
| Dividend Yield | 2.67% |
| Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 3.89% |
| Beta | 0.354 |
Analyst Consensus & Targets
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | 116.74 |
| Analysts | 25 |
| Target Low | 100.0 |
| Target Median | 128.0 |
| Target High | 145.0 |
| Target Mean | 125.9136 |
Recent Earnings Summary (selected lines)
| Period | Normalized EBITDA | Net Income (Continuing Ops) | Diluted EPS | Diluted Avg Shares | Total Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 3.483B | 1.960B | 1.56 | 1.255B | 7.081B |
| 2025-03-31 | 3.284B | 1.315B | 1.04 | 1.259B | 6.667B |
| 2024-12-31 | 3.224B | 1.783B | 1.42 | 1.259B | 7.569B |
| 2024-09-30 | 3.881B | 1.253B | 1.00 | 1.254B | 7.545B |
| 2024-06-30 | 3.414B | 1.614B | 1.29 | 1.251B | 6.953B |
EPS Trend
| Period | Current EPS | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q Diluted | 2.14989 | 2.15182 | 2.15116 | 2.13092 | 2.16271 |
| +1q Diluted | 2.09673 | 2.11256 | 2.11229 | 2.12713 | 2.02342 |
| 0y Diluted | 8.08674 | 8.10062 | 8.09887 | 8.06763 | 8.00189 |
| +1y Diluted | 8.59407 | 8.59819 | 8.59582 | 8.54250 | 8.54452 |
EPS Revisions (count of changes)
| Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| +1q | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0y | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| +1y | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Technical Indicators (latest)
| Indicator | Value (latest) |
|---|---|
| 50-day MA | ≈ 114.1 |
| Price | 116.7 |
| RSI (14) | ≈ 56.6 |
| MACD | 0.6 (vs Signal -0.1) |
| Interpretation | Price above MA with bullish momentum; RSI mid-range; modest upside potential with some volatility risk |
Notes on Price Targets and Trendlines
- Horizontal lines drawn:
- Low Target: 100 (blue)
- Median Target: 128 (orange)
- High Target: 145 (green)
- Extent: All lines extend 30 days into the future from 2025-10-10, reaching 2025-11-09.
Conclusion GILD remains a high-quality, cash-generative pharma name with a solid profitability profile. The forward-looking earnings story is nontrivial but depends on pipeline progress and effective cost/margin management to sustain a favorable multiple. The current setup favors a cautious to modestly constructive stance: upside to the median target (~128) over a few quarters is plausible, with a higher peak near the high target (~145) if pipeline milestones and financials align. The long-run potential (beyond a year) hinges on continued earnings growth and capital allocation that reduces leverage while preserving dividends and buyback support.
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