The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Stock Price Targets

Below is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), including the three horizontal price target lines drawn on EL’s price chart as of today and extended 30 days into the future. All sections reference the data you provided (earnings, EPS trends, revisions, technicals, and valuation metrics).

Note on price targets and horizontal lines

• Drawn lines represent Low, Median, and High price targets (not official analyst targets, since none were provided in the data).
• Targets are derived from the forward earnings framework using the forward P/E multiple and the expected forward EPS (1-year view). The line colors differentiate the levels.
• Targets are extended 30 days into the future from today (today = 2025-10-10). The lines span from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09.
• Target values (rounded for presentation):
  • Low Target: 80.05
  • Median Target: 99.50
  • High Target: 114.35

Transacted lines (draw_line calls)

• Low Target line (blue) drawn at 80.05 from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
• Median Target line (orange) drawn at 99.50 from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09
• High Target line (green) drawn at 114.35 from 2025-10-10 to 2025-11-09

Technical drawing status (EL)

• Low Target line: ID de83e7eaf4684c67838713219dbdd7cd — color #1E88E5
• Median Target line: ID 89f56a3a09584b72a1ffdcbe8204c010 — color #F39C12
• High Target line: ID b7c564e0cfdc46aabba2cce46d648028 — color #43A047

Now, the comprehensive report.

Executive Summary

• Investment thesis: EL is a premium beauty group with a strong portfolio of brands and durable gross margins, but the recent GAAP earnings have been volatile due to significant unusual charges and impairment. The company trades at a premium forward multiple given its brand strength and cash generation, but high debt and negative near-term earnings raise risk, particularly if cost/inventory headwinds persist.
• Overall price outlook: Constructive near-term upside is possible if earnings stabilization occurs and cost controls improve, supported by a favorable momentum backdrop (price above the 50-day moving average, MACD in positive territory, RSI around 60s). However, earnings quality concerns and leverage risk keep the upside to a modest range unless margin recovery accelerates.

Fundamental Analysis

• Key valuation metrics (latest data)

  Metric	Value	Source/Context
  Current price	93.97	Market data provided
  Market cap	33.86B	Provided data
  Enterprise value	41.01B	Provided data
  Trailing P/E	N/A	GAAP earnings negative in recent periods
  Forward P/E	34.80	Forward earnings implied in data
  Price to book	8.75	Solidly above 1, signaling a premium to book value
  Return on equity (ROE)	-24.69%	Negative, driven by recent earnings mix
  Return on assets (ROA)	3.40%	Modest asset efficiency
  Profit margins	-7.91%	Negative net profitability
  Gross margins	73.96%	Strong gross profitability on revenue
  Operating margins	4.43%	Modest operating profitability
  Debt to equity	244.94	Very high leverage, elevated risk
  Total cash	2.92B	Cash buffer
  Total debt	9.47B	Substantial leverage remains post-cash
  Dividend yield	1.46%	Near historical average (5-year avg 1.51%)
  Beta	1.157	Moderately higher market sensitivity

• Financial health indicators

  • Leverage: Very high debt-to-equity (≈245) with substantial interest expense; cash helps but balance sheet risk remains if operating cash flow deteriorates.
  • Margins: Gross margin ~74% supports product pricing and cost-of-goods control, but negative net margins reflect non-operating items and restructuring/impairment charges.
  • Cash generation: Cash position provides flexibility, but near-term earnings quality is a concern due to unusual charges.

Earnings Analysis

• Recent earnings performance (summary observations)

  • Normalized EBITDA (most relevant to cash flow quality) ranges roughly from $378M to $629M in the latest quarters, with a notable swing in GAAP EBITDA.
  • Net income from continuing operations shows significant volatility and negative GAAP outcomes in several periods, driven by total unusual items and impairment charges.
  • Operating income has been modest relative to revenue (Operating Income around $141M most recently in the data; gross profit remains strong, but Opex and unusual charges drive the bottom line negative in several periods).
  • Revenue: Total revenue around $3.411B (latest period) with strong gross margin, implying potential for profitability if cost structure improves.

• EPS Trends

  Period	Current	7 days ago	30 days ago	60 days ago	90 days ago
  0q	0.1678	0.16737	0.16737	0.2334	0.23294
  +1q	0.80724	0.80784	0.80837	0.83393	0.83357
  0y	2.09357	2.0933	2.10046	2.22205	2.21763
  +1y	2.8588	2.85796	2.86155	2.98166	2.91280

  Interpretations:

  • Near-term quarterly EPS (0q) has shown modest positive print, but one must consider the year-ago comparables and the effect of unusual items.
  • The company exhibits meaningful year-over-year EPS growth in the 0y to +1y horizon (2.09 to ~2.86), suggesting improving earnings power on a yearly basis, subject to the absence of further large non-operating charges.

• EPS Revisions

  Horizon	Up last 7 days	Up last 30 days	Down last 30 days	Down last 7 days
  0q	2	2	14	14
  +1q	4	3	13	12
  0y	0	4	18	1
  +1y	0	3	10	1

  Interpretation:

  • Overall sentiment has seen more downgrades than upgrades in near-term revisions (0q, 0y), signaling skepticism around near-term earnings quality. The +1y revisions show some optimism but still skewed toward downgrades in the 1-year window.
  • The EPS trend remains cautiously positive over the 1-year horizon, aligning with the forward earnings context.

• Earnings quality assessment

  • Revenue growth appears solid (revenue around $3.41B in the latest period with strong gross margins), but earnings are burdened by unusual charges and impairment, which distorts GAAP profits.
  • The margin profile suggests potential profitability expansion if restructuring and impairment costs subside and if operating expenses are managed down as a portion of revenue grows.
  • Sustainability will depend on cost discipline, brand momentum, and continued product mix optimization to preserve gross margins while expanding operating leverage.

Technical Analysis

• Current price action

  • The stock trades above the 50-day moving average, which sits around the high $80s (latest 50-day MA ~ 89.30 as of 2025-09-30 to 2025-10-08 window).
  • RSI(14) is around 62 (as of 2025-10-09), indicating modest bullish momentum but not extreme overbought levels.
  • MACD (12,26,9) is positive and the line is above the signal, signaling bullish momentum in the near term.

• Moving average analysis (50-day)

  • 50-day MA has been gradually rising through August and September, currently near 89.3, indicating a positive intermediate trend but with a substantial gap to the current price (around 94) and a potential reach to the mid- to high-9000s price band if momentum persists.

• RSI momentum

  • RSI around 62 suggests balanced to modest bullish momentum; not in overbought territory yet.

• MACD trend signals

  • MACD > Signal and positive, with recent data showing an improving MACD, supporting near-term upside pressure if earnings trend remains favorable.

• Key price levels

  • We have the price target lines (as drawn):
    • Low Target: 80.05 (blue) — potential support if downside risk accelerates.
    • Median Target: 99.50 (orange) — center of the expected range based on forward earnings and multiples.
    • High Target: 114.35 (green) — optimistic upside if earnings surprise and multiple expansion occur.

• Interpreting the technical picture

  • The stock is in a positive technical posture with price above the 50-day MA, a bullish MACD, and an RSI that supports further upside without being overbought.
  • The main risk is earnings quality and leverage; positive earnings revisions and margin recovery would help to push toward the median/high targets.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

• Analyst coverage and current targets: Not provided in the data you supplied (Analyst Price Targets: {}).

• Implied target framework from forward earnings:

  • Forward P/E: 34.80x
  • Forward EPS (1y): ~2.86
  • Implied baseline price using forward P/E and forward EPS: ~99.50 (rounded from exact calc 2.8588 × 34.8037 = 99.50)

• Implication: In the absence of explicit consensus targets, the derived median target (approximately 99.50) is consistent with the forward earnings framework, while the low/high lines reflect a reasonable band around the base case given potential multiple expansion or contraction.

• Potential catalysts

  • Positive earnings revisions or better-than-expected margin recovery.
  • Cost containment or efficiency programs that lift operating margins above 5%.
  • Share repurchases or capital allocation that reduces share count and improves per-share metrics.
  • Brand momentum, product innovation, and resiliency in the premium cosmetics market.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Notes:

• Short/Medium/Long-term targets below are derived from the forward EPS framework and multiple-band assumptions in the absence of published analyst targets.

• Targets are anchored to the forward EPS of ~2.86 and a base forward P/E around 34.8x, with extended bands for bull/bear scenarios.

• Short-Term (3 months)

  • Price Target: 95.00
  • Justification: Near-term momentum is intact (price above the 50-day MA, bullish MACD, RSI ~62). Earnings visibility is improving but ongoing earnings quality concerns and leverage risk cap upside.
  • Key drivers: Stabilization in quarterly earnings, modest margin improvement, potential near-term cost controls; absence of new material negative catalysts.

• Mid-Term (12 months)

  • Price Target: 99.50
  • Justification: Centered on the forward EPS framework with a base forward P/E of about 34.8x. Implied target aligns with the median of the derived band.
  • Key drivers: Margin expansion, continued revenue resilience, favorable operating leverage, potential buybacks or capital allocation that reduces float.

• Long-Term (3+ years)

  • Price Target: 114.35
  • Justification: High target reflecting potential earnings acceleration, multiple expansion if brand performance and cost structure normalize, and sustained balance sheet strength.
  • Key drivers: Sustained margin recovery, growth in high-margin segments, cost discipline, and potential structural improvements in the luxury/ premium cosmetics market.

Table: Price Target Summary (derived from forward EPS and banded P/E)

Target Level	Price (USD)	Basis / Rationale
Low	80.05	28x forward EPS (bearish case) with forward EPS ~2.86
Median	99.50	Forward EPS ~2.86 × ~34.80x forward P/E (base case)
High	114.35	40x forward EPS (bull case)

Note: The above Low/Median/High values reflect a transparent, model-based approach given the absence of formal analyst targets in the data you provided.

Key Risks & Opportunities

• Major risks

  • Earnings quality risk due to unusual items, impairment, and restructuring charges.
  • Very high debt load (Debt/Equity ≈ 245) increases vulnerability to cash-flow stress or higher rates.
  • Macro softness in luxury cosmetics and consumer discretionary spend could weigh on premium brands.
  • Potential for multiple compression if forward earnings fail to materialize as expected.

• Key opportunities

  • Resumption of margin expansion as restructuring charges wane and SG&A efficiencies materialize.
  • Strong gross margins (≈74%) provide a durable base for profitability as operating leverage improves.
  • Cash balance provides execution room for buybacks, strategic investments, or debt reduction.
  • Dividend stability (≈1.46%) adds to total return if cash flows recover.

Investment Recommendation

• Recommendation: HOLD
• Time horizon: 12–24 months
• Rationale:
  • The stock sits on solid gross margins and a robust brand portfolio, with a favorable but still cautious earnings trajectory implied by the forward EPS and revisions data.
  • Near-term earnings quality issues and high leverage create downside risk if non-operating items re-accelerate or if consumer demand slows.
  • The technical setup is constructive, with price above the 50-day MA, positive MACD, and a near-neutral RSI, supporting a wait-and-see stance for further clarity on earnings quality and margin recovery.
• Expected return potential: Moderate, with potential upside toward the mid-to-high target band (roughly up to the low double-digit percentage range if earnings stability and margin recovery materialize). Downside risk remains if earnings volatility persists or leverage constraints become binding.

Appendix: Data references used in analysis

• Price and valuation: current price 93.97; forward P/E 34.8037; price-to-book 8.7471; debt and cash figures; dividend yield data; beta.
• EPS and revisions: EPS Trend (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y) and EPS revisions (up/down counts by period).
• Earnings summary: Normalized EBITDA, Operating Income, Gross Profit, Total Revenue, Net Income, and various line items for 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31, 2024-12-31, 2024-09-30, 2024-06-30, 2024-03-31.
• Technical indicators: 50-day MA values (late July–early October 2025), RSI(14) values (through Oct 9, 2025), MACD (12,26,9) values (through Oct 9, 2025).
• Horizontal lines drawn:
  • Low Target line at 80.05 (blue)
  • Median Target line at 99.50 (orange)
  • High Target line at 114.35 (green)

If you’d like, I can refine the price targets using alternative modeling (e.g., DCF-driven approach, alternative P/E bands, or scenario analyses that incorporate potential margin changes) or adjust the target horizons to fit a different investment view.