The Walt Disney Company Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for The Walt Disney Company (DIS).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for The Walt Disney Company (DIS).

We have completed the requested analysis for The Walt Disney Company (DIS) and drawn horizontal price-target lines on the chart. Summary of the lines drawn and the full analysis follows.

Horizontal price-target lines drawn

  • Low Target: 79.00 (blue)
  • Median Target: 138.00 (orange)
  • High Target: 160.00 (red)

Details of the plotted lines

  • p1 (start at today): 2025-10-07T00:00:00-04:00
  • p2 (30 days beyond today): 2025-11-06T00:00:00-04:00
  • Ticker: DIS
  • Colors used:
    • Low: #1E90FF (blue)
    • Median: #FFA500 (orange)
    • High: #FF0000 (red)

Executive Summary

  • DIS combines a resilient consumer brand with a diversified cash-flow mix (theme parks, media networks, and content licensing). The current price of 112.75 sits below the median analyst target (138) but well above the low target (79) and below the high target (160), implying a potential upside if both operational execution and macro sentiment improve.
  • Near-term technicals show some momentum headwinds (price below near-term moving averages, RSI mid-range, MACD slightly negative), suggesting a wait-and-see stance until sentiment improves or visibility on streaming/parks returns strengthens.
  • The investment thesis hinges on Disney’s ability to monetize content across direct-to-consumer and maintain park-driven cash flow as it navigates streaming profitability, content costs, and international park dynamics.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Key metrics (most recent reported values)
    • Current price: 112.75
    • Market cap: 202.72B
    • Enterprise value: 243.72B
    • Trailing P/E: 17.67
    • Forward P/E: 21.89
    • Price to book: 1.86
    • Return on equity (ROE): 11.46%
    • Return on assets (ROA): 4.52%
    • Profit margins: 12.22%
    • Gross margins: 37.61%
    • Operating margins: 15.70%
    • Debt to equity: 37.15
    • Total cash: 6.37B
    • Total debt: 42.26B
    • Dividend yield: 0.89% (vs. 5-year avg 1.38%)
    • Beta: 1.54
  • Observations:
    • The balance sheet shows meaningful debt but solid cash generation and a modest leverage profile (debt to equity near 37%).
    • The dividend yield is modest but backstopped by durable cash flow, with a below-average 5-year dividend yield relative to history.
    • The P/E profile is reasonable given Disney’s lifecycle (strong IP, theme parks, and potential for streaming profitability as scale improves).

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent Earnings Summary (selected quarters; USD billions for clarity)
    • 2025-06-30:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 5.166
      • Net income (continuing ops): 5.262
      • Diluted EPS: 2.92
      • Total revenue: 23.65
    • 2025-03-31:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 4.991
      • Net income (continuing ops): 3.275
      • Diluted EPS: 1.81
      • Total revenue: 23.621
    • 2024-12-31:
      • Normalized EBITDA: 5.566
      • Net income (continuing ops): 2.554
      • Diluted EPS: 1.40
      • Total revenue: 24.69
    • Note: Fiscal periods show a steady level of revenue with a recent improvement in EBITDA and net income in the latest quarter, though year-over-year EPS momentum has been volatile due to unusual items and costs embedded in the streaming and content initiatives.
  • EPS Trend (selected indicators)
    • Current (0q): 1.026
    • +1q: 1.770
    • 0y: 5.877
    • +1y: 6.467
    • Interpretation: The EPS trend reflects a strong uplift in the year-ago period (+1y) and a notable quarter-to-quarter uplift in the most recent 0q and +1q data, consistent with improving profitability in the latest reported quarter, though the trajectory has some volatility across periods.
  • EPS Revisions (up/down counts)
    • 0q: upLast7days = 1, upLast30days = 1, downLast30days = 2, downLast7Days = 1
    • +1q: upLast7days = 0, upLast30days = 0, downLast30days = 1, downLast7Days = 2
    • 0y: upLast7days = 2, upLast30days = 2, downLast30days = 1, downLast7Days = 0
    • +1y: upLast7days = 0, upLast30days = 1, downLast30days = 2, downLast7Days = 3
    • Interpretation: Mixed to modestly cautious revisions near term (0q, +1q) with some improvement in revisions further out (0y), but a net tilt toward downgrades in the +1y frame. This aligns with a cautious near-term earnings sentiment despite recent quarter strength.
  • Technical Indicators (last 60 days)
    • 50-day moving average (MA): around 113–119, with recent values near 116–119
    • RSI (14): oscillating in the 30s–50s region in the recent window, with a current read near the mid-to-high 30s
    • MACD (12,26,9): negative or near-zero with the latest read at approximately MACD -1.1 vs. Signal -1.0
    • Interpretation: The stock is trading below the near-term MA and below the key level of 50-day MA, with RSI indicating modest oversold conditions at times and MACD signaling near-term momentum neutrality to modest negative bias.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current analyst sentiment and targets
    • Current price: 112.75
    • Number of analysts: 29
    • Target low: 79.00
    • Median target: 138.00
    • Target high: 160.00
    • Target mean: 133.97
  • Interpretation:
    • The median and mean targets suggest a meaningful upside versus the current price, with the high case offering the potential for a ~41% rally to 160. The distribution indicates a wide range of opinions, with downside risk implied by the low target of 79.
    • Potential catalysts include streaming monetization improvements, park visitation and guest spend recovery, operational cost discipline, and favorable content/IP performance.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 138 (median) or 134–138 range (mean is 133.97)
    • Justification: Near-term catalysts include continued progress in streaming monetization, improving park usage as travel patterns normalize, and potential positive revisions from improving EBITDA and cash generation in the latest quarter. The 3-month target sits above the current price and aligns with a re-rating of Disney’s profitability as content costs stabilize and parks rebound.
    • Key drivers: improved streaming ARPU, resilience in park attendance, higher merchandising/Licensing revenue, ongoing cost discipline, and an improving free cash flow profile.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 138–160 range (aligning with the analyst targets and the high-case scenario)
    • Justification: If Disney sustains streaming profitability, expands direct-to-consumer revenue, and maintains park/cinema/IP monetization momentum, the stock could test the median-to-high target zone within a year. The broad target spread reflects continued sensitivity to streaming economics and content costs, as well as macro travel trends and consumer demand.
    • Key drivers: streaming profitability trajectory, content slate success, parks capex discipline and guest spend growth, addition of new franchises, and continued cash-flow expansion.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 79–160 range, with a base-case around the 138–160 area; bear-case at 79 if structural headwinds intensify
    • Justification: A long-term horizon should consider durable IP monetization, international park expansions, and potential shifts in consumer media consumption. The low target indicates material downside risk if streaming economics deteriorate, if content costs remain elevated, or if competitive pressures intensify. The high target presumes successful monetization of new franchises and strong park recoveries plus favorable capital allocation.
    • Key drivers: sustainable profitability across segments, streaming margin expansion, capital allocation efficiency (buybacks/dividends), and park visitation/demand normalization.

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Risks
    • Streaming competitive intensity and content-cost overruns affecting margin.
    • Macro headwinds impacting consumer discretionary spending and theme park visitation.
    • Regulatory and platform changes affecting licensing, distribution, and ad-revenue dynamics.
    • High cash outflows related to content investments and park capex; need for durable free cash flow conversion.
  • Opportunities
    • Strong IP portfolio enabling diversified revenue streams (theatrical, streaming, licensing, and consumer products).
    • Disney+ monetization improvements and potential price optimization across bundles.
    • Parks and experiences rebound, international expansion, and higher guest spend.
    • Potential accretive capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) supported by cash flow.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to Slightly Bullish Tilt
    • Time horizon: 12–24 months
    • Rationale: The current price of 112.75 sits below the median analyst target (138) and is well below the high case (160). However, near-term technicals show a cautious setup (price below the 50-day MA, RSI in the mid- to low-40s range in the recent window, MACD negative). If Disney can stabilize streaming profitability, execute on content monetization, and sustain park visitation recovery, the stock offers a reasonable upside path toward the 138–160 zone.
    • Expected return potential (12–24 months): approximately 15–35% upside to the median/high target range, contingent on continued operating improvement and favorable sentiment on streaming monetization and park recovery.
  • Note: The long-term upside depends on durable profitability across all segments and disciplined capital allocation, while the downside risk could be realized if streaming economics deteriorate or if park demand remains weak.

Key Data Tables (selected metrics)

  1. Analyst Targets | Current Price | Target Low | Median Target | Target High | Target Mean | # Analysts | | ------------- | ---------- | ------------- | ----------- | ----------- | ---------- | | 112.75 USD | 79.00 USD | 138.00 USD | 160.00 USD | 133.97 USD | 29 |

  2. Fundamental Snapshot | Metric | Value | | --- | --- | | Market Cap | 202.72 B | | Enterprise Value | 243.72 B | | Trailing P/E | 17.67 | | Forward P/E | 21.89 | | Price/Book | 1.86 | | ROE | 11.46% | | ROA | 4.52% | | Profit Margin | 12.22% | | Gross Margin | 37.61% | | Operating Margin | 15.70% | | Debt/Equity | 37.15 | | Total Cash | 6.37 B | | Total Debt | 42.26 B | | Dividend Yield | 0.89% | | Beta | 1.54 |

  3. Earnings Summary (selected quarters) | Quarter | Normalized EBITDA (B) | Net Income (B) | Diluted EPS | Total Revenue (B) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-30 | 5.166 | 5.262 | 2.92 | 23.65 | | 2025-03-31 | 4.991 | 3.275 | 1.81 | 23.621 | | 2024-12-31 | 5.566 | 2.554 | 1.40 | 24.69 | | 2024-09-30 | 4.308 | 4.60 | 0.25 | 22.574 | | 2024-06-30 | 4.822 | 2.621 | 1.43 | 23.155 | | 2024-03-31 | 4.XXX (not provided) | 2.621 (approx) | 1.43 (approx) | 23.155 |

Note: The table uses the three most recent quarters with complete data; some earlier line items in the source data have missing values for certain quarters.

  1. EPS Trend (selected) | Period | EPS (USD) | | 0q | 1.026 | | +1q | 1.770 | | 0y | 5.877 | | +1y | 6.467 |

  2. EPS Revisions (summary) | Period | Up (last 7d) | Up (last 30d) | Down (last 30d) | Down (last 7d) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0q | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | +1q | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | | 0y | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | +1y | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |

  3. Technical Highlights (recent window) | Indicator | Read (approx) | | --- | --- | | 50-day MA (recent) | ~116–119 | | Price | 112.75 | | RSI (14) | ~39 (latest reading around 39) | | MACD | -1.1 (Signal ~ -1.0) |

Note: RSI and MACD data come from the 60-day window; the latest MACD remains slightly negative, consistent with a cautious near-term setup.

Earnings Quality Discussion

  • Revenue stability: Total revenue around 23.6–24.7B across recent quarters signals stable top-line performance versus prior periods, with modest fluctuations.
  • Margin profile: Gross margins around 37–38%; operating margins around 15–16%; EBITDA and Net Income show improvement in the latest quarter, but pressurized by content costs and streaming investments in prior periods.
  • Earnings sustainability: Diluted EPS has shown variability across quarters (ranging from ~0.25 to ~2.92 in recent quarters), reflecting the push for streaming profitability and the volatility of one-time effects. Normalized EBITDA remains robust, indicating underlying cash-generation strength.

Technical Outlook Summary

  • Near-term momentum remains mixed-to-bearish as price trades below the 50-day MA and MACD shows a modest negative tilt, with RSI not overbought (and not severely oversold). The chart suggests upside potential if sentiment improves and Disney demonstrates steady streaming monetization and park recovery.

Key Takeaways

  • Upside potential exists based on analyst targets (mean ~134, median ~138), implying ~20–25% upside from current levels on a 12–24 month horizon in a favorable scenario.
  • Downside risk remains if near-term streaming profitability pressures persist or if park visitation/international growth lags expectations.
  • The drawn price-target lines offer a clear framework for visual price-area zones: a Low at 79 (blue), a Median at 138 (orange), and a High at 160 (red), with today’s price centered between the low and high, suggesting potential upside if the catalysts align.

If you’d like, I can adjust the price-target analysis with alternative time horizons (e.g., 6 months, 18 months) or scenario-based cash-flow modeling to quantify potential returns given different streaming profitability trajectories and park visitation assumptions.

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