Chevron Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Chevron Corporation (CVX).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Chevron Corporation (CVX).
Below is a comprehensive price-target and investment analysis for Chevron Corporation (CVX), incorporating the requested horizontal target lines and a structured, research-driven view across fundamental, earnings, and technical factors.
Price-line drawing note
- Horizontal trendlines were drawn for:
- Low Target: 124.00 (color: blue)
- Median Target: 171.00 (color: green)
- High Target: 197.00 (color: orange-red)
- Extent: Each line is extended 30 days into the future from 2025-10-07, i.e., through 2025-11-06.
- Ticker: CVX
Executive Summary
- Price targets imply meaningful upside to the median target from current levels, with potential for material upside if energy markets remain constructive.
- Current CVX price: 154.02
- Low target: 124.00 (implies potential downside to baseline)
- Median target: 171.00 (approx. 11% upside)
- High target: 197.00 (approx. 28% upside)
- Key catalysts include: relatively healthy dividend yield (4.45%), disciplined capital allocation, and resilient downstream/upstream cash flow in a volatile energy environment. Valuation remains reasonable with forward P/E around 13.95x and a P/B near 1.82x given robust cash generation.
- Near-term technicals show a mixed to mildly bearish momentum in the short run, with CVX trading near its 50-day moving average and a subdued RSI around mid-30s, suggesting limited upside without a catalysts-driven move in energy prices or refining margins.
- Fundamental Analysis
Valuation and Financial Health
- Current price (CVX): 154.02
- Market capitalization: $310.3B
- Enterprise value: $291.6B
- Forward P/E: 13.95x
- Trailing P/E: 19.82x
- Price-to-Book: 1.82x
- PEG ratio: not provided
- Dividend yield: 4.45% (five-year avg: 4.26%)
- Beta: 0.813 (lower-than-market volatility relative to S&P 500)
- Return on Equity (ROE): 8.96%
- Return on Assets (ROA): 4.76%
- Debt-to-Equity: 20.01x
- Total cash: ~$4.07B
- Total debt: ~$29.47B
- Net debt (approx.): ~$25.40B
- Ultimate takeaway: CVX trades at a moderate forward multiple with a strong dividend, solid profitability margins, and a conservative balance sheet by typical oil major standards. The cash/debt posture supports ongoing buybacks and dividend sustainability, though leverage remains meaningful.
Key Metrics Table (selected figures)
- Values are rounded for readability.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 154.02 |
| Market cap | 310,322,954,240 |
| Enterprise value | 291,574,906,880 |
| Forward P/E | 13.95x |
| Trailing P/E | 19.82x |
| Price to book | 1.8177x |
| ROE | 8.96% |
| ROA | 4.76% |
| Net margin | 7.25% |
| Gross margin | 39.17% |
| Operating margin | 9.44% |
| Debt/Equity | 20.01x |
| Total cash | 4.07B |
| Total debt | 29.47B |
| Net debt | 25.40B |
| Dividend yield | 4.45% |
| Five-year avg dividend yield | 4.26% |
| Beta | 0.813 |
Earnings Analysis Recent Earnings Summary (quarterly)
- The data covers five quarters; CVX shows a pattern of steadier revenue with varying quarterly net income and EPS, consistent with upstream volatility but stable cash flow and EBITDA levels.
Recent-quarter snapshot (selected figures; USD billions unless stated)
| Quarter End | Total Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | EBITDA | Net Income (Continuing Ops) | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 44.38 | 13.17 | 4.06 | 8.83 | 2.49 | 1.45 |
| 2025-03-31 | 46.10 | 13.37 | 4.30 | 10.03 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| 2024-12-31 | 48.33 | 13.21 | 6.25 | 10.35 | 3.24 | 1.84 |
| 2024-09-30 | 48.93 | 14.26 | 6.65 | 10.88 | 4.49 | 2.48 |
| 2024-06-30 | 49.57 | 14.70 | 5.66 | 11.33 | 4.43 | 2.43 |
EPS Trend
- The provided EPS data shows shorter-term noise with a softer current quarter versus the immediate prior quarter, then a strong year-ago base. The trend suggests some quarterly variability rather than a clean, accelerating EPS trajectory.
| Period | Current | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q (Diluted EPS) | 1.9905 | 2.0770 | 2.0498 | 1.9836 | 1.9340 |
| +1q (Diluted EPS) | 1.8372 | 1.8270 | 1.8739 | 2.0148 | 1.8372 |
| 0y | 7.8152 | 7.8486 | 7.8394 | 7.6855 | 7.6873 |
| +1y | 9.2338 | 9.2772 | 9.5859 | 9.8955 | 9.2232 |
EPS Revisions
- The revisions data show a tilt toward more downgrades than upgrades in several windows, signaling some analyst conservatism around short- and longer-term profitability.
- Summary (count of revisions):
- 0q: Up: 0 in last 7d; Up: 1 in last 30d; Down: 2 in last 30d; Down: 3 in last 7d
- +1q: Up: 2 in last 7d; Up: 2 in last 30d; Down: 2 in last 30d; Down: 1 in last 7d
- 0y: Up: 1 in last 7d; Up: 3 in last 30d; Down: 4 in last 30d; Down: 3 in last 7d
- +1y: Up: 2 in last 7d; Up: 3 in last 30d; Down: 5 in last 30d; Down: 2 in last 7d
| Period | Up (7d) | Up (30d) | Down (30d) | Down (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| +1q | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 0y | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| +1y | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
Technical Analysis (last 60 days)
- 50-day Moving Average (MA): Roughly 155.5 as of late Sep/early Oct 2025; current price ~154.0, trading near the MA.
- RSI (14): 34.0 as of 2025-10-06, implying modest oversold territory but not extreme.
- MACD (12,26,9): MACD around -0.4 with a 0.3 signal as of 2025-10-06, indicating negative momentum but a potential base forming.
- Interpretation: The stock sits near the 50-day MA with modest bearish momentum, but the dividend and earnings stability keep CVX on a constructive long-run path if energy prices stabilize or improve.
Technical Indicators Summary (latest)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| 50-day MA | ~155.6 |
| Last price | 154.0 |
| RSI (14) | 34.0 |
| MACD | -0.4 |
| MACD Signal | 0.3 |
Analyst Consensus & Price Targets
- Number of analysts: 23
- Current price: 154.02
- Targets (Low/Median/High):
- Low: 124.0
- Median: 171.0
- High: 197.0
- Target Mean: 169.74
- The targets imply upside to the median and material potential to the high, with 23 covering analysts providing a range of views.
- Dividend support and resilient cash flow help underpin upside scenarios even if oil markets face near-term volatility.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | 154.02 |
| Target low | 124.0 |
| Target median | 171.0 |
| Target high | 197.0 |
| Target mean | 169.74 |
| Analysts | 23 |
| Dividend yield | 4.45% |
Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term) Executive frame: Use the price targets as a base-case valuation framework, with the current price and macro/micro catalysts shaping the realization of these targets.
-
Short-Term (3 months)
- Target: 171 (median), with potential to test 171 as the near-term resistance line if energy prices remain stable or improve and refining margins stay favorable.
- Justification: The median analyst target is 171; a base-case near-term re-rating could occur if macro energy demand remains stable and CVX continues to deliver steady quarterly cash flow and dividends.
- Key drivers: Crude price stability around the mid-to-high $70s to $80s, solid downstream margins, potential buyback activity, and continued macroeconomic resilience feeding energy demand.
- Upside/downside scenario: If oil prices trend lower or margins compress, upside could be limited toward the lower end of analyst ranges; however, the 124 target provides ample downside protection if conditions deteriorate.
-
Mid-Term (12 months)
- Target: 171 (median) as a plausible baseline target for a 12-month horizon.
- Justification: With forward P/E ~13.95x and CVX’s improved cash generation, a 12-month re-rating toward the median target remains feasible given stable energy demand and capex discipline.
- Key drivers: Persistent dividend income, potential capital return programs, and a constructive energy demand environment. Integration of Upstream-Downstream cash flow to sustain earnings quality.
- Upside/downside scenario: Moving toward 171 if revenue and EPS trends hold; downside risk if energy prices soften or if costs rise due to macro conditions.
-
Long-Term (3+ years)
- Target: 197 (high) as an optimistic but plausible longer-term target in a constructive commodity cycle.
- Justification: In a favorable energy market with disciplined capital allocation, CVX can generate stronger cash flow and sustain or grow dividends, potentially expanding multiple valuation levels.
- Key drivers: Structural demand for energy, resilience in downstream margins, ongoing buybacks, and a disciplined balance sheet that supports growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
- Upside/downside scenario: 197 implies substantial upside if oil prices maintain a higher range and CVX executes on capital allocation and efficiency improvements; downside risk if the energy cycle weakens or competition intensifies.
-
Summary table (targets vs current) | Target | Price (USD) | Implied % Change vs 154.02 | |---|---:|---:| | Low (124) | 124.00 | -19.5% | | Median (171) | 171.00 | +11.0% | | High (197) | 197.00 | +27.9% |
Key Risks & Opportunities
- Major Risks
- Energy price volatility: A material drop in crude prices could compress CVX earnings, especially upstream cash flow.
- Regulatory/Geopolitical risk: Environmental/regulatory changes or geopolitical disruptions could impact operations and costs.
- Commodity cycle risk: The CVX earnings trajectory is sensitive to the oil and gas cycle; a downturn could affect EPS revisions and analyst sentiment.
- Key Opportunities
- Dividend stability and share repurchases can support total return even in flat equity markets.
- Downstream/Diversified cash flows may cushion upstream volatility.
- Potential for multiple expansion if forward earnings prove more robust than expected and if market conditions reward integrated energy players.
Investment Recommendation
- Recommendation: Hold
- Rationale: CVX shows solid fundamentals, a meaningful dividend, and a reasonable forward multiple. The price today sits near the 50-day MA with a mixed near-term momentum (RSI ~34, MACD negative). Analyst targets suggest meaningful upside to the median target (171) with substantial upside if high-case scenarios emerge (197). The near-term risk-reward is skewed to modest upside if energy markets stabilize; otherwise, downside risk is limited by the dividend and strong cash flow but constrained by potential macro headwinds.
- Time Horizon: 12–24 months
- Expected return potential: Approximately 6–15% on base-case (median target around 171), with higher upside (~28%) if high-end targets are achieved and energy markets remain favorable.
Earnings Quality and EPS Revisions – Synthesis
- Earnings quality: CVX shows durable gross margins (around 39%), positive operating margin (~9.4%), and robust EBITDA in the last several quarters, indicating strong cash generation despite quarterly fluctuations in net income.
- EPS trend: Short-term EPS data show variability quarter-to-quarter (0q current ~1.99 vs prior ~2.08), with a relatively strong year-ago base (0y EPS around 7.82), indicating cyclical volatility rather than a consistent upward trajectory.
- EPS revisions: The revisions data indicate mixed sentiment with more downgrades in some windows, suggesting that near-term earnings risk may be weighed against CVX’s structural cash flows and dividend appeal.
Notes on Data Reliability and Assumptions
- All figures are sourced from the data you provided and are interpreted as reported (in USD, unless stated otherwise).
- The price targets are external analyst targets and reflect consensus expectations; actual market performance can diverge due to macro, operational, and macroeconomic conditions.
- The horizontal lines drawn represent the specified price targets extending to 2025-11-06 as requested.
Appendix: Quick reference for the drawn lines
- Low Target line: 124.00 (blue) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
- Median Target line: 171.00 (green) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
- High Target line: 197.00 (orange-red) from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06
If you’d like, I can expand the Price Target Analysis with scenario-based modeling (e.g., oil at $60, $75, $90+; upstream/downstream split, debt reduction scenarios) or add a sensitivity table showing how CVX might move with changes in WTI crude price, refining margins, and CAPEX levels.