Chevron Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Chevron Corporation (CVX).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Chevron Corporation (CVX).

Here is a comprehensive analysis for Chevron Corporation (CVX) as of 2025-10-10, including the requested horizontal price-target trendlines and a full price-target framework.

Drawing horizontal trendlines

  • Low Target: 124.00 (color: blue) extended to 2025-11-09
  • Median Target: 171.00 (color: orange) extended to 2025-11-09
  • High Target: 197.00 (color: red) extended to 2025-11-09

Notes on the lines:

  • The lines were drawn on the active price chart using today’s date (2025-10-10) and extended 30 days into the future to 2025-11-09.
  • Ticker: CVX
  • Colors:
    • Low (support): #1E90FF (blue)
    • Median (target center): #FFA500 (orange)
    • High (resistance/upper target): #FF0000 (red)

Executive Summary

  • CVX trades at a forward-looking, conservative multiple in a stable cash-flow sector with a strong dividend yield. The stock sits below the 50-day moving average but remains supported by solid margins, a healthy balance sheet for the sector, and a diversified downstream/upstream portfolio.
  • Analyst targets imply meaningful upside from the current price, with a clear split between a median/mean target around the low-to-mid $170s and an upper target near $197. The low target (~$124) offers a long-term floor but is not the base-case scenario.
  • Near term catalysts include oil/US energy price stability, potential accretive capital allocation (cash flow, dividends, buybacks), and continued earnings resilience in a tight refining/energy environment.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and fundamentals (selected metrics)
    • Current price: 151.64
    • Market cap: $305.5B
    • Enterprise value: $291.9B
    • Trailing P/E: 19.54
    • Forward P/E: 13.74
    • Price to Book: 1.79
    • Return on Equity (ROE): 8.96%
    • Return on Assets (ROA): 4.76%
    • Profit margins: 7.25%
    • Gross margins: 39.17%
    • Operating margins: 9.44%
    • Debt to equity: 20.01x
    • Total cash: $4.07B
    • Total debt: $29.47B
    • Dividend yield: 4.45%
    • Five-year average dividend yield: 4.26%
    • Beta: 0.813 (lower volatility vs. the market)
  • Financial health notes:
    • Leverage remains modest for an integrated energy major (debt/EBITDA and debt/equity are manageable given sizable cash flow).
    • Cash generation historically supports a strong dividend (yield ~4.5%), with potential allocations to buybacks or growth investment.

Earnings Analysis

  • Recent earnings cadence (quarters shown)
    • 2025-06-30: Revenue $44.38B; Gross Profit $13.17B; EBIT $4.42B; EBITDA $8.83B; Net Income $2.49B; Diluted EPS $1.45; Basic EPS $1.45
    • 2025-03-31: Revenue $46.10B; Gross Profit $13.37B; EBIT $5.79B; EBITDA $10.03B; Net Income $3.50B; Diluted EPS $2.00; Basic EPS $2.01
    • 2024-12-31: Revenue $48.33B; Gross Profit $13.21B; EBIT $6.26B; EBITDA $10.35B; Net Income $3.24B; Diluted EPS $1.84; Basic EPS $1.85
    • 2024-09-30: Revenue $48.93B; Gross Profit $14.26B; EBIT $6.65B; EBITDA $10.88B; Net Income $4.49B; Diluted EPS $2.48; Basic EPS $2.49
    • 2024-06-30: Revenue $49.57B; Gross Profit $14.70B; EBIT $5.59B; EBITDA $11.33B; Net Income $4.43B; Diluted EPS $2.43; Basic EPS $2.43
  • EPS trend (quarterly and year-over-year context)
    • 0q (current period snapshot): 1.958 (avg of latest quarter) vs 2.005 (7d ago) vs 2.050 (30d ago) vs 1.984 (60d ago) vs 1.934 (90d ago)
    • +1q: 1.752 vs 1.837 vs 1.874 vs 1.895 vs 1.838
    • 0y: 7.740 vs 7.791 vs 7.839 vs 7.657 vs 7.709
    • +1y: 9.107 vs 9.232 vs 9.586 vs 9.779 vs 9.168
  • EPS revisions (sentiment signals)
    • 0q: upLast7days 0; upLast30days 1; downLast30days 2; downLast7Days 3
    • +1q: upLast7days 2; upLast30days 2; downLast30days 2; downLast7Days 1
    • 0y: upLast7days 1; upLast30days 3; downLast30days 4; downLast7Days 3
    • +1y: upLast7days 2; upLast30days 3; downLast30days 5; downLast7Days 2 Interpretation: The revision mix shows a near-term tilt toward upgrades in the +1q and +1y buckets, but with mixed signals in the 0q and 0y buckets. Net sentiment remains cautiously constructive over longer horizons.
  • Earnings quality assessment
    • Revenue trend has moderated from earlier highs in 2024, with total revenue in the mid-to-high $46B–$49B range across the latest reported quarters.
    • Gross margins have held near 39%–40%, indicating solid product mix and pricing power in a volatile energy environment.
    • Operating margin around 9.4% and net margin around 7.2% indicate stable profitability given the capital-intensive business.
    • Leverage remains moderate (Debt/Equity ~20x, debt load manageable against cash flows), and dividend yield (~4.45%) provides ballast for equity holders.

Technical Analysis

  • Price action and current relative positioning
    • Current price: 151.64
    • 50-day moving average (latest): 155.5
    • RSI (14, latest): 36.6 (approaching oversold territory but not deeply oversold)
    • MACD (12,26,9) latest: -0.8 (below signal -0.1; negative momentum)
  • Key levels
    • Short-term support around the 50-day MA near 155–156; if the price dips below, further support could emerge near the low $140s to high $140s depending on oil price regime and macro news.
    • Short-to-mid-term resistance around the median price target at 171 and the high target at 197; with momentum and oil price stabilization, 171–197 are plausible upside milestones.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 151.64
  • Number of analysts covering CVX: 23
  • Price targets (consensus)
    • Low: 124.0
    • Median: 171.0
    • High: 197.0
    • Mean: 169.65
  • Interpretation: The median/mean targets imply a meaningful 12–14% to mid-teen upside over a 3–12 month horizon, with potential upside to ~$197 if catalysts align. The distribution also reflects a wide range of price expectations among analysts.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target range: roughly $169–$172 (based on the median target of $171 and current mean/consensus around $169.65)
    • Justification and drivers:
      • Analyst consensus indicating upside from current price
      • Stabilizing or improving macro energy price environment if oil holds in the higher $60s–$80s band
      • CVX’s cash flow generation and dividend yield provide downside protection; any near-term volatility in oil prices would test this thesis
    • Key risks:
      • Continued weaker refinery margins or macro sell-off in energy equities
      • The stock trading below the 50-day MA may reflect near-term momentum weakness
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target range: around $170–$190 (using the mean/median targets and the near-term upside trajectory)
    • Justification and drivers:
      • Forward P/E of ~13.7x implies valuations are reasonable versus the sector; if oil/gas demand remains robust and capital allocation is effective (dividends + buybacks), multiple expansion is possible
      • Continued earnings stability and a robust dividend can support valuations even if macro growth remains tepid
      • Potential catalysts: energy demand resilience, improved refining margins, share buybacks, and accretive capex returns
    • Risks:
      • Oil price volatility and supply dynamics
      • Regulatory or geopolitical developments impacting energy equities
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: High target near $197 (the stated high target)
    • Justification and drivers:
      • Structural cash flows from an integrated energy company with downstream and upstream assets
      • The upside risk scenario includes stronger commodity price regimes or higher refining and downstream margins that sustain earnings and dividend capacity
      • Long-run value realization through disciplined capital allocation and potential strategic shifts
    • Risks:
      • Persistent energy price volatility, demand shifts (e.g., energy transition), regulatory changes increasing costs
      • Debt financing environment and potential macro headwinds

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Energy price volatility and macroeconomic sensitivity
    • Refining margins compression or supply chain disruptions
    • Regulatory changes and environmental policy risk
    • Global geopolitical tensions affecting supply/demand
  • Key opportunities
    • High dividend yield provides ballast and income
    • Steady cash generation supports buybacks and dividends
    • Potential for multiple expansion if oil markets stabilize and CVX demonstrates strong capital allocation
    • 50-day MA convergence and RSI momentum turning higher could bode well for a near-term rebound

Investment Recommendation

  • Overall stance: Hold
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Rationale:
    • The stock offers a solid dividend, stable margins, and a diversified portfolio, with earnings quality supported by consistent margins and cash flow.
    • Near-term risk is visible (price currently below the 50-day MA and MACD in negative territory), but the analyst consensus targets imply meaningful upside potential into the 170s–190s range in the next 12–24 months.
    • The long-run upside is capped by macro energy volatility, but the high price target ($197) reflects the optionality if energy demand remains robust and capital allocation remains favorable.
  • Expected return potential (12–24 months):
    • Base case (near-term up to median target): ~8–12% upside to ~$170–$173
    • Bull case (reaching high target): ~25–30% upside to ~$195–$200
    • Downside risk (to low target): potential ~-18% to ~$124 if energy demand softens and multiple compression occurs

Selected Tables (all data shown in USD unless noted)

  1. Key Valuation & Financial Metrics
  • Table: CVX — Key Metrics (as of 2025-10-10)

Metric | Value

  • Current Price | 151.64
  • Market Cap | $305,527,652,352
  • Enterprise Value | $291,903,242,240
  • Trailing P/E | 19.54
  • Forward P/E | 13.74
  • PEG Ratio | N/A
  • Price to Book | 1.79
  • ROE | 8.96%
  • ROA | 4.76%
  • Profit Margin | 7.25%
  • Gross Margin | 39.17%
  • Operating Margin | 9.44%
  • Debt to Equity | 20.01
  • Total Cash | $4.07B
  • Total Debt | $29.47B
  • Dividend Yield | 4.45%
  • 5-Year Avg Dividend Yield | 4.26%
  • Beta | 0.813
  1. Analyst Targets
  • Table: Analyst Price Targets (CVX)

Current Price | 151.64 Analysts Coverage | 23 Target Low | 124.0 Target Median | 171.0 Target High | 197.0 Target Mean | 169.65

  1. Recent Earnings Summary (quarters)
  • Table: Key Earnings Figures (USD in billions unless stated)

Date | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | EBITDA | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Basic EPS

  • 2025-06-30 | 44.38 | 13.17 | 4.06 | 8.83 | 2.49 | 1.45 | 1.45
  • 2025-03-31 | 46.10 | 13.37 | 4.30 | 10.03 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 2.01
  • 2024-12-31 | 48.33 | 13.21 | 2.42 | 10.35 | 3.24 | 1.84 | 1.85
  • 2024-09-30 | 48.93 | 14.26 | 4.96 | 10.88 | 4.49 | 2.48 | 2.49
  • 2024-06-30 | 49.57 | 14.70 | 5.59 | 11.33 | 4.43 | 2.43 | 2.43
  1. EPS Trend (periods)
  • Table: EPS Trend (period vs. current/ago)

Period | Current | 7d Ago | 30d Ago | 60d Ago | 90d Ago

  • 0q | 1.95842 | 2.00452 | 2.04983 | 1.98361 | 1.93402
  • +1q | 1.75246 | 1.83722 | 1.87393 | 1.89509 | 1.83842
  • 0y | 7.73994 | 7.79113 | 7.83944 | 7.65725 | 7.70886
  • +1y | 9.107 | 9.23181 | 9.58588 | 9.77856 | 9.16836
  1. EPS Revisions
  • Table: EPS Revisions (periods)

Period | Up Last 7d | Up Last 30d | Down Last 30d | Down Last 7d

  • 0q | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3
  • +1q | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1
  • 0y | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3
  • +1y | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2
  1. Technical Indicators (last 60 days)
  • 50-Day MA (latest): 155.5
  • RSI (14) latest: 36.6
  • MACD (12,26,9) latest: MACD = -0.80, Signal = -0.10
  1. Technical Levels — Horizontal Trendlines Plotted
  • Low Target: 124 (blue)
  • Median Target: 171 (orange)
  • High Target: 197 (red)
  • Extends to: 2025-11-09

Earnings quality, EPS trends, and revisions were central to the analysis:

  • EPS Trend signals a range of quarterly and YoY evolutions; the current 0q EPS near $1.96 is in line with recent quarter results but below prior peaks in 2024; the +1y EPS indicates potential mid-term growth if macro conditions improve.
  • EPS Revisions show more downgrades in some periods and upgrades in others; the net signal remains cautiously constructive over the next 12–24 months.
  • The earnings mix shows stable gross margins around 39%, solid EBITDA generation, and a durable dividend framework.

Conclusion

  • CVX presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The stock offers a meaningful dividend yield, defensive cash flow characteristics, and a valuation that supports upside from consensus price targets.
  • The three drawn lines (124, 171, 197) give a clear framework for downside protection, base-case upside, and an upper upside scenario anchored by high target expectations.
  • Given the data, a disciplined Hold with a positive bias seems appropriate for a 12–24 month horizon. Upside is plausible into the 170s–190s range if energy markets stabilize and CVX continues to execute on capital allocation and earnings stability; the high target around 197 remains a longer-run upside cap contingent on favorable macro energy dynamics.

If you want, I can update or refine the price-target framework with alternate time horizons (e.g., 6 months or 18 months) or run a scenario analysis assuming different oil prices/FX assumptions.

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