Cisco Systems, Inc. Stock Price Targets

Here is a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) as of 2025-10-07, incorporating the requested price-target lines and a detailed look across fundamental, earnings, and technical dimensions.

Price target lines drawn

Low Target: 61.0 (green)
Median Target: 75.0 (blue)
High Target: 87.0 (red)
Extending 30 days into the future from today (2025-10-07 to 2025-11-06)
- Lines created on CSCO with distinct colors for clarity

Summary of the relevant chart overlays (drawn)

Low target line at 61.0 (CSCO, green)
Median target line at 75.0 (CSCO, blue)
High target line at 87.0 (CSCO, red)

Executive Summary

Investment thesis: Cisco remains a mature, large-cap enterprise networking and security software player, characterized by solid cash generation, a healthy dividend, and a multi-year transition toward software-driven recurring revenue. The stock trades at a forward-and-valuation profile that is reasonable for a cash-generative defender with growing software exposure, but the upside is capped versus high-growth peers.
Price framework: Near-term upside versus today’s price (~68.91) is supported by a positive technical backdrop and constructive EPS revisions, with analysts targeting a median price around 75 and a high target near 87. A downside scenario around 61 is plausible if macro conditions deteriorate or hardware demand weakens.
Core takeaway: Hold/Cautious Buy with a 12- to 24-month view, recognizing upside to 75–87 if the company maintains earnings momentum and free cash flow expansion, but aware of macro/tech cycle risks.

Fundamental Analysis Key valuation and financial metrics (extracts from the provided data)

Current price: 68.91
Market cap: ≈ $273.98B
Enterprise value: ≈ $281.47B
Trailing P/E: ≈ 27.02
Forward P/E: ≈ 17.67
Price-to-book: ≈ 5.83
Return on Equity (ROE): ≈ 22.06%
Return on Assets (ROA): ≈ 6.34%
Profit margins: ≈ 17.97%
Gross margins: ≈ 64.94%
Operating margins: ≈ 21.28%
Debt-to-equity: ≈ 63.28
Total cash: ≈ $16.67B
Total debt: ≈ $29.64B
Dividend yield: 2.41% (five-year avg: 2.95%)
Beta: 0.97 (nearly market-neutral)

Valuation snapshot (table)

The table below condenses the key metrics you provided.

Metric	Value	Note
Current price	68.91	As of 2025-10-07
Market cap	273.98B	(approx)
Enterprise value	281.47B	(approx)
Trailing P/E	27.02	as of latest twelve months
Forward P/E	17.67	Next-twelve-months earnings implied
Price-to-book	5.83
ROE	22.06%
ROA	6.34%
Profit margin	17.97%
Gross margin	64.94%
Operating margin	21.28%
Debt/Equity	63.28
Total cash	16.67B
Total debt	29.64B
Dividend yield	2.41%	5-year avg: 2.95%
Beta	0.97

Analyst price targets and coverage

Current price: 68.91
Targets (analysts: 21)
- Low: 61.0
- Median: 75.0
- High: 87.0
- Mean: 76.10048
Implication: The market consensus sits modestly above the current price, with a typical upside path toward the median around 75 and higher toward the high case of 87. The 61 downside scenario provides a defined risk floor.

Recent Earnings Summary (selected highlights from provided data)

Quarter-end 2025-07-31 (latest quarter in the data)
- Total Revenue: 14.673B
- Gross Profit: 9.28B
- Operating Income: 3.122B
- EBITDA: 4.002B
- Net Income (from continuing ops): 2.55B
- Diluted EPS: 0.71
- Basic EPS: 0.71
- Other items: tax effect of unusual items (~~8.38M) and total unusual items (~~$56M) in that quarter
- Tax rate for calc: ~14.97%
Prior quarters (for context)
- Revenue has been in the 13.99B – 14.15B range across 2025-01-31 and 2025-04-30, suggesting a modest growth momentum into 2025-07-31.
- Net income from continuing operations has hovered around the mid-to-high $2B range with quarterly diluted EPS in the $0.62–0.71 band.
Normalized EBITDA across the latest quarters: around $3.95B–$4.07B, showing continued high cash-flow potential even after accounting for unusual items.

EPS Trend (provided data)

The dataset provides two perspectives:
- GAAP-looking view (latest quarter): Diluted EPS of 0.71 (2025-07-31)
- EPS Trend figures (current to +1y):
  - 0q: 0.9803
  - +1q: 0.98924
  - 0y: 4.04486
  - +1y: 4.35562
Interpretation note: The 0q and +1q numbers in the EPS Trend block are higher than the quarterly GAAP EPS and likely reflect a different basis (e.g., normalized or per-share measures on a different base). The explicit GAAP Diluted EPS for the most recent quarter is 0.71, which is the appropriate near-term figure to anchor performance. The 0y and +1y figures imply stronger trailing/forward-looking earnings under the provided dataset and may reflect annualized or normalized perspectives.

EPS Revisions (sentiment signals)

0q (most recent period)
- Up Last 7 Days: 0
- Up Last 30 Days: 14
- Down Last 30 Days: 2
- Down Last 7 Days: 0
+1q
- Up Last 7 Days: 0
- Up Last 30 Days: 0
- Down Last 30 Days: 4
- Down Last 7 Days: 1
0y
- Up Last 7 Days: 1
- Up Last 30 Days: 17
- Down Last 30 Days: 5
- Down Last 7 Days: 1
+1y
- Up Last 7 Days: 0
- Up Last 30 Days: 1
- Down Last 30 Days: 2
- Down Last 7 Days: 1
Interpretation: Near-term revisions show a tilt toward upgrades (notably 14 upgrades in 30 days for 0q), with longer-horizon revisions also showing more upgrades than downgrades in the 0y bucket (17 upgrades in 30 days). The sentiment appears constructive, supporting some optional upside to consensus targets, while still being balanced by downgrades in some horizon windows.

Technical Analysis (Last 60 Days)

50-day Moving Average (MA)
- Latest MA: 67.7
- Latest close: 68.9
- Observation: The stock is trading above the 50-day MA, indicating a short-term bullish tilt with a positive MA effect.
RSI (14)
- Latest RSI: 66.5 (as of 2025-10-06)
- Interpretation: Neutral to mildly bullish momentum; not yet overbought, room for upside if momentum continues.
MACD (12,26,9)
- Latest MACD: 0.2
- Latest Signal: 0.0
- Interpretation: Positive MACD with a rising bar, suggesting upside momentum and potential continuation of an uptrend.
Current price action
- Price near 69, with the stock trading above the 50-day MA; RSI and MACD data support a constructive near-term setup but with reasonable upside resistance in the 75–87 target band.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Current price: 68.91
Analysts covering CSCO: 21
Targets
- Low: 61.0
- Median: 75.0
- High: 87.0
- Mean: 76.10048
Interpretation: The consensus sits modestly above the current price, implying a non-trivial chance of upside to the median and high targets if the company sustains earnings momentum and cash-flow growth while market conditions remain favorable.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3 months)

Target range: 61 (low) to 87 (high), with a central bias toward the median 75.
Justification and drivers:
- Near-term earnings revisions show a constructive tilt (14 upgrades in the last 30 days for 0q).
- The stock’s position above the 50-day MA and a positive MACD/broadly positive RSI point to continued near-term upside potential.
- Risks include macro weakness or a pause in enterprise IT spending, which could test the 61 support level.
Potential return (from 68.91):
- 61: -11.5%
- 75: +8.8%
- 87: +26.1%

Mid-Term (12 months)

Target range: around the current mean of targets (~76) with upside toward the high 87.
Justification and drivers:
- Forward-looking multiple: forward P/E ~17.7 remains reasonable for a software-enabled networking leader with strong FCF.
- EPS revisions and historical trajectory imply potential earnings acceleration as Cisco monetizes software offerings and improves gross/marginal contribution.
- The blended revenue growth (enterprise networking + software) supports a higher multiple if cash generation remains robust.
Potential return:
- 75–76 range: roughly flat to +10% depending on multiple re-rating and growth realization.
- 87 target: roughly +26% from current price if the high case materializes over 12 months.

Long-Term (3+ years)

Target: 87 (high target as a long-horizon ceiling), with upside contingent on sustained software transition, margin expansion, and durable cash flow.
Justification and drivers:
- Structural shift to software and subscriptions can improve ARR, gross margins, and operating leverage.
- Cisco’s dividend and share-repurchase flexibility can support total return even if price appreciation alone is modest.
- Key risk factors include a slower macro environment, competitive pressure, and potential technological shifts that could delay software adoption or hardware replacement cycles.
Potential return:
- 87 represents a meaningful upside over a multi-year horizon, but the actual path depends on execution, spend patterns, and market dynamics.

Key Risks & Opportunities

Major risks
- Macro slowdown and cautious enterprise IT budgets could delay Cisco’s software migration and hardware refresh cycles.
- Competitive pressure from hyperscalers and other networking vendors could compress margins or slow revenue growth.
- Supply chain and component cost dynamics could impact gross margins and profitability.
Key opportunities
- Accelerating software and security offerings provide a path to higher gross margins and recurring revenue.
- Strong free cash flow supports continued dividend growth and opportunistic buybacks.
- Cisco’s broad portfolio and ecosystem advantages could drive cross-sell opportunities in enterprise IT.

Investment Recommendation

View: Hold to Accumulate
Time horizon: 12–24 months
Rationale:
- The stock trades at a reasonable forward multiple (forward P/E ~17.7) with solid cash flow, dividend support, and a constructive but not spectacular earnings trend.
- Price targets imply upside toward the median (~75) and the high (~87) in a favorable scenario, with a clear downside risk to ~61 if macro or business conditions deteriorate.
Expected return potential (12–24 months): Approximately 5–25% depending on path (single-digit to mid-teens if mean/median targets are realized; higher if a strong multiple re-rating toward high targets occurs).

Appendix: Technical and Target Context

50-day MA: ~67.7; price ~68.9 (bullish proximity)
RSI(14): ~66.5 (near-overbought territory not yet reached)
MACD: Positive (MACD ~0.2 vs Signal ~0.0)
Horizontal price-target overlays added on chart at:
- 61 (low, green)
- 75 (median, blue)
- 87 (high, red)
These overlays help visualize the risk-reward framework relative to current price.

Data-driven observations

Earnings momentum: Latest quarter (2025-07-31) shows solid revenue (~~$14.7B) and net income (~~$2.55B) with a diluted EPS of 0.71. Normalized EBITDA in the 3.95B–4.07B area indicates strong cash generation even when accounting for unusual items.
EPS trends and revisions: While GAAP quarterly EPS sits in the $0.62–0.71 range, the provided EPS Trend data suggests higher normalized figures in longer-horizon views. The revisions data points toward more upward revisions than downgrades in the near term (0q), with a favorable tilt across the 0y horizon. This supports a constructive view on the share’s intermediate trajectory, subject to execution and macro conditions.
Valuation cadence: Forward P/E around 17.7 is reasonable for a large, cash-generative software-enabled networking company, especially given strong gross margins (~65%) and robust FCF.

If you’d like, I can:

Deep-dive into segment-level revenue growth (product vs. services) and cash flow generation by quarter.
Build scenario-based price targets (e.g., macro re-rating, software mix acceleration, or a hardware demand downturn) with probability weights.
Create an annotated chart summary showing the current price against the 50-day MA, RSI, and MACD with the three target lines clearly labeled.

Note: All three horizontal lines (61, 75, 87) have been drawn as requested, with the specified colors, extending 30 days into the future from today (to 2025-11-06).