Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).

Below is a comprehensive COST (Costco Wholesale) analysis as of 2025-10-10, with horizontal price-target lines drawn on the price chart for the three specified levels. I’ve included a detailed investment thesis, fundamentals, earnings & EPS trends, revisions, technicals, consensus, and a structured price-target analysis.

Note on the drawing:

  • Horizontal lines were drawn at Low Target = 620.00, Median Target = 1082.50, High Target = 1218.00.
  • Lines extend 30 days from today (2025-10-10) to 2025-11-09.
  • Line colors: Low Target (620) green (#008000), Median Target (1082.50) orange (#FFA500), High Target (1218) red (#FF0000).

Executive Summary

  • Investment thesis: Costco remains a dominant, defensively positioned retailer with strong cash flow generation, healthy balance sheet, and a durable membership model. The stock trades at a premium valuation, but the 30-analyst consensus indicates meaningful upside potential under a stable macro backdrop and continued member loyalty.
  • Outlook: Moderate-to-solid upside over the next 12 months, with upside risk limited by a high valuation multiple. The key drivers are continued membership expansion, stable margins, share repurchases, and solid cash generation. A pullback in risk appetite or macro pressure could compress multiples, even as earnings momentum remains positive.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Valuation and size
    • Current price (as of 2025-10-10): 942.89
    • Market Cap: $417.87B
    • Enterprise Value: $400.07B
    • Trailing P/E: 51.81
    • Forward P/E: 47.91
    • Price-to-Book: 14.33
    • Beta: 0.964
    • Debt to Equity: 34.07%
    • Total Cash: $15.28B
    • Total Debt: $9.93B
    • Net cash (approx): ~$5.35B
    • Dividend Yield: 0.57% (5-year avg: 0.62%)
  • Profitability and efficiency
    • Profit Margin: 2.94%
    • Gross Margin: 12.84%
    • Operating Margin: 3.88%
    • ROE: 30.69%
    • ROA: 8.83%
  • Financial health
    • Cost structure and margins show Costco’s operating leverage remains solid, with cash generation sufficient to support modest dividend payments and potential buybacks. The cash balance comfortably covers near-term debt obligations.

Analyst Coverage and Targets

  • Current price: 942.89
  • Analysts covering COST: ~30
  • Price-target spectrum:
    • Target Low: 620.00
    • Target Median: 1082.50
    • Target High: 1218.00
    • Target Mean: 1060.37
  • Interpretation: The median and mean targets imply meaningful upside from the current price, with notable potential upside to the high target. The large low target provides a downside risk scenario for risk-aware investors.

Earnings Analysis Recent earnings snapshot (selected figures from the latest quarters)

  • Normalized EBITDA (selected quarters)

    • 2025-08-31: $3.184B
    • 2025-05-31: $2.987B
    • 2025-02-28: $2.849B
    • 2024-11-30: $3.896B
    • 2024-08-31: $2.821B

  • Net Income From Continuing Operations

    • 2025-08-31: $1.903B
    • 2025-05-31: $1.789B
    • 2025-02-28: $1.798B
    • 2024-11-30: $2.354B
    • 2024-08-31: $1.681B

  • Diluted EPS

    • 2025-08-31: $5.87
    • 2025-05-31: $4.28
    • 2025-02-28: $4.02
    • 2024-11-30: $4.04
    • 2024-08-31: $5.29

  • Total Revenue (operating revenue)

    • 2025-08-31: $63.205B
    • 2025-05-31: $63.723B
    • 2025-02-28: $62.151B
    • 2024-11-30: $79.697B
    • 2024-08-31: $58.515B

  • Observations:

    • The latest reported quarter shows strong per-share earnings (EPS) in the 5.87 range, indicating continued earnings power, supported by healthy revenue levels around the mid-$60B per quarter.
    • Normalized EBITDA has been robust, with a dip in some periods that could reflect seasonality, mix, or one-off items; however, the latest quarter’s trajectory remains constructive.
    • Revenue variability across quarters is notable, with the 2024-11 period showing a higher reported revenue (~$79.7B) due to seasonality and/or category mix, but recent quarters have stabilized in the mid-$60B range.

EPS Trend

  • Latest quarterly EPS: 5.87 (Diluted EPS, 2025-08-31)
  • Earlier quarterly EPS (Diluted EPS): 4.28 (2025-05-31); 4.02 (2025-02-28)
  • Trailing window context (from data)
    • 0q: 4.29 (near-term EPS)
    • +1q: 4.51 (implied sequential strength)
    • 0y: 20.09 (trailing annual EPS)
    • +1y: 22.19 (estimated next-year EPS)
  • Interpretation: The company has shown solid EPS execution across quarters with a notable uptick in the most recent quarter, suggesting earnings momentum into the next year, albeit at a high valuation.

EPS Revisions

  • Near-term revisions (period 0q and +1q)
    • Up last 7 days: 8 (0q), 8 (+1q)
    • Up last 30 days: 7 (0q), 7 (+1q)
    • Down last 30 days: 4 (0q), 5 (+1q)
    • Down last 7 days: 5 (0q), 5 (+1q)
  • Longer horizon revisions (0y and +1y)
    • 0y: Up last 7 days 7, Up last 30 days 9, Down last 30 days 9, Down last 7 days 9
    • +1y: Up last 7 days 7, Up last 30 days 8, Down last 30 days 5, Down last 7 days 6
  • Interpretation: Near-term revisions are tilted modestly positive, with more balanced activity over a 12-month horizon. This supportive revision environment aligns with the earnings momentum observed in recent quarters.

Technical Analysis (last ~60 days)

  • Price action
    • Current price: 942.89
    • 50-day moving average (MA): roughly 952–955 region in recent observations
    • Price is slightly below the 50-day MA, indicating mild near-term softness versus the short-term trend
  • Momentum indicators
    • RSI (14): around the mid-40s recently (e.g., 45.7 on 2025-10-09), signaling neither extreme overbought nor oversold
    • MACD (12,26,9): negative values around -9.8 with a negative MACD line versus a negative signal line, suggesting continued downward pressure—though not an immediate cross that would flip to bullish
  • Support and resistance framework
    • Immediate near-term support: ~930–940 area (rounding around current price vicinity; not explicitly listed in the data but inferred from price/MA proximity)
    • Nearby resistance: ~970–980 zone (MA proximity around 953 and the price having been in the 930s–950s recently)
    • The drawn targets (620/1082.50/1218) are long-range levels extending beyond the near-term chart, with 1082.50 acting as a target-based resistance and 620 as a potential downside scenario
  • Interpretation: The stock is trading slightly below the 50-day MA, with momentum leaning modestly bearish. The long-range price targets drawn provide clear upside milestones that are materially above the current price but require a sustained improvement in earnings power and multiples.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current price: 942.89
  • Number of analysts: ~30
  • Target High/Low/Median
    • High: 1218.00
    • Low: 620.00
    • Median: 1082.50
    • Mean: 1060.37
  • Interpretation: The consensus shows substantial upside potential from the current price, anchored by a robust earnings backdrop and Costco’s durable model. The wide range also signals a dispersion of views around the depth and pace of the earnings trajectory and multiple expansion.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months)
    • Target: 1082.50 (Median target)
    • Justification: Near-term earnings revisions have shown positive momentum, with the most recent quarterly EPS and EBITDA showing strength. Trading around 943, a rise into the 1,080s would reflect continued earnings resilience and valuation re-rating as macro conditions stabilize.
    • Key drivers: sustained member growth and stable comps, favorable margins (operating margin ~3.9%), cash generation supporting buybacks and optionality.
  • Mid-Term (12 months)
    • Target: 1060.37 (Mean/Representative)
    • Justification: The stock trades at a high multiple (Forward P/E ~47.9). A normalized earnings trajectory, margin discipline, and continued cash generation could support mid-teens to low 20% upside from the current price, barring macro shocks. The mean analyst target around 1060 supports a conservative baseline if multiples compress modestly.
    • Key drivers: continued membership growth, steady gross and operating margins, share repurchases, and potential store/channel mix improvements.
  • Long-Term (3+ years)
    • Target: 1218.00 (High target)
    • Justification: In a supportive macro environment with durable earnings power and strong cash generation, multiple expansion could unlock the higher end of the analyst dispersion. The 1218 target represents a plausible long-horizon bull case if COST sustains its competitive moat, loyalty metrics, and efficient scale.
    • Key drivers: durable membership model, pricing power with inflation-adjusted dues, operating margin expansion through efficiency, continued e-commerce and omni-channel growth, and capital allocation (buybacks, selective capex, potential M&A optionality).

Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Major risks
    • Elevated valuation: the stock trades at a premium multiple, making it sensitive to any earnings softness or macro risk that compresses multiples.
    • Margin pressure: ongoing cost pressures (labor, logistics, inflation) could challenge gross/operating margins if not offset by pricing or productivity gains.
    • Competition and consumer sensitivity: macro uncertainty and discount retailer competition could pressure traffic and per-ticket volumes.
    • Global trade/FX and supply chain disruptions could affect costs and product availability.
  • Key opportunities
    • Membership model resiliency: Costco’s loyalty-driven growth often outperforms peers in downturns due to high retention and stickiness.
    • Cash flow and capital allocation: robust cash flow supports buybacks and dividends; potential accretive acquisitions or expansion into new markets could drive growth.
    • Margin improvement: potential savings through supply chain efficiencies and logistics optimization.
    • E-commerce and omni-channel: continued expansion could lift average ticket and frequency.

Investment Recommendation

  • Recommendation: Hold to Buy, with a bias toward constructive exposure in dips, given the robust earnings base and discount-to-peer opportunities in cost leadership.
  • Time horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected return potential:
    • Base-case (mean target ~1060): roughly +12–15% upside from 942.89
    • Bull-case (median/high targets, up to 1082.50–1218): roughly +15% to +29% upside
    • Downside scenario (Low target 620): potential ~-34% downside
  • Rationale: The upside potential is partially balanced by a high current multiple. If COST sustains its earnings trajectory and capital returns with modest multiple expansion, upside in the 12–24 month horizon seems plausible. If macro risk intensifies or margins compress materially, downside risk could be significant, reinforcing a cautious stance.

Price Targets Chart (Quick Reference)

  • Horizontal lines drawn on the price chart:
    • Low Target: 620.00 (green; support scenario)
    • Median Target: 1082.50 (orange; central target)
    • High Target: 1218.00 (red; upside limit)

Numerical Data Tables

  1. Key Fundamentals
  • Currency: USD
  • As of 2025-10-10
  • Metrics:
    • Current price: 942.89
    • Market Cap: $417.87B
    • Enterprise Value: $400.07B
    • P/E (Trailing): 51.81
    • P/E (Forward): 47.91
    • P/B: 14.33
    • ROE: 30.69%
    • ROA: 8.83%
    • Profit Margin: 2.94%
    • Gross Margin: 12.84%
    • Operating Margin: 3.88%
    • Debt/Equity: 34.07%
    • Total Cash: $15.28B
    • Total Debt: $9.93B
    • Net Cash: ≈$5.35B
    • Dividend Yield: 0.57% (5-year avg 0.62%)
    • Beta: 0.964

Table: Analyst Targets

  • Current Price: 942.89
  • Analysts: 30
  • Target Low: 620.00
  • Target Median: 1082.50
  • Target High: 1218.00
  • Target Mean: 1060.37
  1. Recent Earnings Snapshot (selected quarters)
  • 2025-08-31
    • Normalized EBITDA: 3.184B
    • Net Income From Continuing Ops: 1.903B
    • Diluted EPS: 5.87
    • Total Revenue: 63.205B
  • 2025-05-31
    • Normalized EBITDA: 2.987B
    • Net Income From Continuing Ops: 1.788B
    • Diluted EPS: 4.28
    • Total Revenue: 63.723B
  • 2025-02-28
    • Normalized EBITDA: 2.849B
    • Net Income From Continuing Ops: 1.798B
    • Diluted EPS: 4.02
    • Total Revenue: 62.151B
  • 2024-11-30
    • Normalized EBITDA: 3.896B
    • Net Income From Continuing Ops: 2.354B
    • Diluted EPS: 4.04
    • Total Revenue: 79.697B
  • 2024-08-31
    • Normalized EBITDA: 2.821B
    • Net Income From Continuing Ops: 1.681B
    • Diluted EPS: 5.29
    • Total Revenue: 58.515B
  1. EPS Trend (selected)
  • 0q: EPS 4.2875
  • +1q: 4.50566
  • 0y: 20.09248
  • +1y: 22.1885
  1. EPS Revisions (selected)
  • 0q:
    • Up Last 7 Days: 8
    • Up Last 30 Days: 7
    • Down Last 30 Days: 4
    • Down Last 7 Days: 5
  • +1q:
    • Up Last 7 Days: 8
    • Up Last 30 Days: 7
    • Down Last 30 Days: 5
    • Down Last 7 Days: 5
  • 0y:
    • Up Last 7 Days: 7
    • Up Last 30 Days: 9
    • Down Last 30 Days: 9
    • Down Last 7 Days: 9
  • +1y:
    • Up Last 7 Days: 7
    • Up Last 30 Days: 8
    • Down Last 30 Days: 5
    • Down Last 7 Days: 6
  1. Technical Indicators (highlights)
  • 50-day MA (approx): ~952–954 (as of latest observations)
  • RSI (14) (latest): ~45–46
  • MACD (12,26,9) (latest): Negative, around -9.8 with a negative signal line

Important caveats

  • COST is trading at a premium multiple relative to many peers. The upside implied by the median/high targets is substantial but contingent on earnings stability and multiple expansion.
  • The near-term momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) show some softness; a gradual improvement in earnings growth and margin discipline would be supportive for a multiple expansion scenario.

If you’d like, I can also generate a chart excerpt showing the price versus 50-day MA, RSI, and MACD trajectories, or drill down into any particular quarter or line item from the earnings data.

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