Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock Price Targets

Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).

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Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).

Here is a comprehensive COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation) analysis, including the requested horizontal trendlines and an in-depth price-target framework.

Horizontal trendlines drawn

  • Low Target (620.00): Blue line
  • Median Target (1082.50): Green line
  • High Target (1218.00): Orange line
  • All lines extend from 2025-10-07 (today) to 2025-11-06 (30 days forward)

Notes: The trendlines were plotted on COST’s active chart with unique colors to distinguish targets. If you’d like different colors or to extend the horizon further, I can adjust them.

  1. Executive Summary
  • Investment thesis: COST remains a high-quality wholesale retailer with strong cash flow, a durable membership model, and healthy margin discipline. The current price (~$911) sits below recent analyst targets and is near term support risk if macro consumer sentiment softens, but the long-run growth trajectory backed by steady compounding earnings and efficient capital allocation remains favorable.
  • Outlook: Moderate upside to the near-term analyst mean/median targets, with meaningful upside potential if EPS momentum continues and cost efficiencies improve. The key is whether COST can sustain margin stability and accelerate share repurchases or member growth to unlock upside beyond the median target.
  1. Fundamental Analysis

Key Valuation Metrics (as of today)

  • Current Price: 910.94
  • Market Cap: 404.38B
  • Enterprise Value: 398.62B
  • Trailing P/E: 49.997
  • Forward P/E: 46.288
  • Price to Book: 13.844
  • Return on Equity (ROE): 0.3069 (30.69%)
  • Return on Assets (ROA): 0.883%? (0.08833)
  • Profit Margin: 2.943%
  • Gross Margin: 12.843%
  • Operating Margin: 3.878%
  • Debt to Equity: 28.024
  • Total Cash: 15.28B
  • Total Debt: 8.173B
  • Dividend Yield: 0.57%
  • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield: 0.62%
  • Beta: 0.964

Observations:

  • Valuation remains premium (high trailing and forward P/E), consistent with COST’s higher than average capex efficiency and robust operating profile.
  • Debt levels are modestly levered (Debt/Equity ~28), with substantial cash on hand, supporting ongoing buybacks and shareholder-friendly actions.
  • Dividend yield under 1% indicates COST is more of a cash-cflow reinvestor than a high-yield income stock, though it has a reliable dividend history.
  1. Earnings Analysis

Recent Earnings Summary (latest quarter highlighted: 2025-08-31)

  • Normalized EBITDA: 3.184B
  • Net Income From Continuing Operations: 1.903B
  • Diluted EPS: 5.87
  • Basic EPS: 5.88
  • Total Revenue / Operating Revenue: 63.205B
  • Gross Profit: 8.209B
  • Cost of Revenue: 54.996B
  • Operating Income: 2.615B
  • EBITDA: 3.167B
  • Pretax Income: 2.58B
  • Net Income: 1.903B
  • Total Expenses: 60.675B
  • Net Income attributable to common stockholders: 1.903B

EPS Trend (quarterly and year-over-year context)

  • 0q (current quarter): Diluted EPS 4.28363; Basic EPS 5.88
  • +1q: Diluted EPS 4.50989; Basic EPS 4.29
  • 0y: Diluted EPS 20.09203; Basic EPS 20.088? (context shows 20.09203)
  • +1y: Diluted EPS 22.18935; Basic EPS 22.189? (context shows 22.18935)

Interpretation:

  • The EPS trend shows a significant year-over-year uplift (0y vs +1y) around the 20–22 range, consistent with COST’s large base of earnings and operating leverage over multiple years.
  • The most recent quarterly EPS (0q) around 4.28–4.29, with the +1q showing a step higher (~4.51), indicates secular earnings momentum, albeit the raw quarterly ESPS can be volatile given Costco’s mix of membership revenue, seasonal promotions, and cost dynamics.

EPS Revisions (analyst sentiment)

  • 0q: Up last 7 days = 8 upgrades; Up last 30 days = 7; Down last 30 days = 4; Down last 7 days = 5
  • +1q: Up last 7 days = 8; Up last 30 days = 7; Down last 30 days = 5; Down last 7 days = 5
  • 0y: Up last 7 days = 7; Up last 30 days = 9; Down last 30 days = 9; Down last 7 days = 9
  • +1y: Up last 7 days = 7; Up last 30 days = 8; Down last 30 days = 5; Down last 7 days = 6

Interpretation:

  • Net upgrades across the near-term windows suggest a positive analyst sentiment tilt in the latest period, aligning with a constructive view on EPS trajectory in the next 1–2 quarters. This supports a base-case upside to the median/mean targets in the near term.

Technical Analysis (as of latest data)

  • 50-Day Moving Average (MA): ~952.8 (latest; price as of 2025-10-06: 910.9–910.94)
  • RSI (14): ~26.2 (oversold territory)
  • MACD (12,26,9): Negative (-11.6 to -12.3 range) with the MACD line below the Signal line, indicating ongoing near-term bearish momentum but potential for bounce if oversold conditions trigger mean reversion.
  • Current price (910.94) vs 50-day MA (~952.8) implies the stock is trading below the short-term trend line, consistent with a soft, choppy near-term tape but with historically resilient fundamentals.

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

  • Current Price: 910.94
  • Target Low: 620.00
  • Target Median: 1082.50
  • Target High: 1218.00
  • Target Mean: 1061.20
  • Number of Analysts: 30
  • Key Drivers cited by analysts: earnings growth (EPS trajectory), margin stability, membership base durability, and cost control.
  • Potential catalysts: quarterly earnings results (Q3/Q4), membership growth data, store expansion and e-commerce initiatives, and share repurchase activity.

Price Target Analysis (Short, Mid, Long-Term)

  • Short-Term (3 months): Target around 1082.50 (median) or the mean around 1061.20. Justification: near-term EPS momentum (+1q EPS uplift to ~4.51), ongoing upgrades in EPS revisions, and constructive margin commentary; catalysts include upcoming earnings release and potential positive guidance. Key drivers: quarterly earnings beat risk, margin stabilization, better-than-expected comp/store performance, potential small-capex efficiencies. Target range: 1061–1083; Upside vs. current price: ~16–19%.

  • Mid-Term (12 months): Target around the mean ~1061.20 to median ~1082.50. Justification: continued earnings resilience, steady membership growth, and ongoing cost controls. Analysts expect a sustained earnings run-rate that supports a 12-month multiple re-rating toward the mid-point of the current consensus. Key drivers: member renewal rates, expansion initiatives (global), e-commerce momentum, and ongoing efficiency programs. Target range: 1060–1090; Upside vs. current price: ~16–20%.

  • Long-Term (3+ years): Target around the High 1218.00. Justification: if COST maintains high ROE (~30%), robust cash generation, and durable margins, plus potential multiple expansion as the equity base compounds and share repurchases scale, upside could approach the high target. Key drivers: structural advantages (membership model), operating leverage, global expansion, productivity gains, and capital return policy. Target range: 1080–1220+; Upside vs. current price: ~19–34% (with the high case approaching ~33–34%).

Note: The 620.00 Low Target provides a downside scenario to reflect potential macro-downturn risks or dislocations. The 1082.50 Median and 1218.00 High reflect the current analyst dispersion around COST’s earnings power and multiple.

  1. Key Risks & Opportunities

  • Key Risks

    • Macro consumer weakness could dampen Costco’s traffic growth and membership renewal velocity.
    • Valuation risk: current multiples are elevated; meaningful upside may require sustained earnings growth.
    • Competitive pressure from e-commerce and club-based retailers, including margin compression from cost inflation.
    • FX, supply chain dynamics, and potential tariff shifts could affect gross margins and cost of goods.

  • Key Opportunities

    • Durable earnings power from Costco’s membership model, high recurring revenue, and large cash flow generation.
    • Margin improvement potential through scale, supply chain optimization, and mix benefits.
    • Balance sheet strength enabling continued buybacks and potential dividends growth.
    • Global expansion and online channel growth to broaden addressable market.
  1. Investment Recommendation
  • Recommendation: Hold
  • Time Horizon: 12–24 months
  • Expected Return Potential: Base-case 16–19% to the median/mean targets; upside if earnings momentum surpasses expectations (+20–25% to the mean; up to ~33% toward the high target in a bull case).
  • Rationale: The stock trades at a premium multiple, supported by COST’s durable earnings and cash generation. The near-term setup shows oversold momentum (RSI ~26, MACD negative), but price remains below the 50-day MA, suggesting a potential near-term bounce if earnings momentum proves persistent. The analyst consensus targets imply meaningful upside, but the risk-reward is more balanced than high-conviction buy given the valuation and macro exposure.

Tables: Selected Data Snapshot

  • Key Metrics
  • Analyst Price Targets
  • Earnings Summary (latest quarter)
  • EPS Trend
  • EPS Revisions
  • Technical Snapshot

Key Metrics

  • Current Price: 910.94
  • Market Cap: 404,375,404,544
  • Enterprise Value: 398,619,279,360
  • Trailing P/E: 49.9967
  • Forward P/E: 46.2876
  • Price to Book: 13.8445
  • ROE: 0.30686
  • ROA: 0.08833
  • Profit Margin: 0.02943
  • Gross Margin: 0.12843001
  • Operating Margin: 0.03878
  • Debt to Equity: 28.024
  • Total Cash: 15,283,999,744
  • Total Debt: 8,173,000,192
  • Dividend Yield: 0.57%
  • Five-Year Avg Dividend Yield: 0.62%
  • Beta: 0.964

Analyst Price Targets

  • Target Low Price: 620.00
  • Target Median Price: 1082.50
  • Current Price: 910.94
  • Number of Analyst Opinions: 30
  • Target High Price: 1218.00
  • Target Mean Price: 1061.20

Earnings Summary (latest quarter: 2025-08-31)

  • Net Income: 1,903,000,000
  • Diluted EPS: 5.87
  • Basic EPS: 5.88
  • Normalized EBITDA: 3,184,000,000
  • EBITDA: 3,167,000,000
  • Operating Income: 2,615,000,000
  • Gross Profit: 8,209,000,000
  • Revenue: 63,205,000,000
  • Cost of Revenue: 54,996,000,000
  • Total Expenses: 60,675,000,000
  • Pretax Income: 2,580,000,000

EPS Trend

  • 0q (current): 4.28363
  • +1q: 4.50989
  • 0y: 20.09203
  • +1y: 22.18935

EPS Revisions

  • 0q: UpLast7d 8, UpLast30d 7, DownLast30d 4, DownLast7d 5
  • +1q: UpLast7d 8, UpLast30d 7, DownLast30d 5, DownLast7d 5
  • 0y: UpLast7d 7, UpLast30d 9, DownLast30d 9, DownLast7d 9
  • +1y: UpLast7d 7, UpLast30d 8, DownLast30d 5, DownLast7d 6

Technical Snapshot (latest)

  • 50-Day MA: 952.8
  • RSI (14): 26.2
  • MACD (12,26,9): -12.3 (signal -9.0)
  • Recent price action: 910.9–910.94

Conclusion

  • COST offers a defensible earnings-led growth story with a premium multiple. The near-term price may be constrained by macro consumer headwinds and a price trading below the 50-day MA, but the valuation remains supported by strong free cash flow generation and a durable business model. The drawn horizontal targets (620, 1082.5, 1218) illustrate a wide potential range, with substantive upside to the median/high targets if EPS momentum persists and revisions stay skewed to upgrades. The recommended stance is a measured Hold with eyes on the 12-month targets and potential upside if earnings resilience and margin discipline continue to materialize.

If you’d like, I can:

  • Update the price-target framework with alternative scenarios (bear/bull cases) and compute the associated expected returns.
  • Add a more granular earnings sensitivity model (EPS vs. revenue growth vs. margin changes) to quantify upside/downside risks.
  • Extend the horizontal trendlines further into the future or adjust for any new data releases.
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