Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock Price Targets
Comprehensive analysis of short, mid, and long-term price targets for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).
Give me a comprehensive price target analysis for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).
Price Target Analysis for COST
| Target Level | Price ($) | Justification & Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 620.00 | Reflects the downside risk, supported by headwinds such as valuation metrics and potential market corrections. It aligns with the historically lower end of analyst sentiment. |
| Median | 1097.50 | Represents the consensus median analyst price, factoring in current earnings, growth prospects, and valuation metrics, including a forward PE of approximately 49.3. |
| High | 1225.00 | Targets the optimistic upside driven by strong earnings growth, positive technical momentum, and potential catalyst events such as market expansion or operational efficiencies. |
Comprehensive Price Outlook
Short-Term (3 months)
The current price ($970) aligns closely with the mid-range median target ($1097.50), supported by positive earnings momentum, stable fundamentals, and technical indicators like above-average RSI and MACD signaling potential continuation. A potential near-term uptrend could see prices gravitating towards the median target, with risks limited to macroeconomic headwinds or sector rotation.
Mid-Term (12 months)
EPS trends show growth, with current EPS around 4.28 and a solid upward trajectory in recent quarters. The analyst revisions are predominantly upward (+3 over the past year), reaffirming positive sentiment. Valuation remains high but justified by strong gross margins (~12.8%) and a good dividend yield (0.52%). Expect the stock to approach the high target ($1225) if earnings and technical momentum persist, especially if macro conditions remain favorable.
Long-Term (3+ years)
Fundamentally, COST's healthy cash position ($14.8B) and manageable debt levels ($8.36B) support sustainable growth. Although valuation metrics like P/E (~55) are elevated, the company's strong market position, ongoing expansion, and earning power justify these levels in a growth-oriented context. The long-term price target aligns with sustained earnings growth, expanding margins, and continued market share gains, potentially reaching or exceeding the high analyst estimate.
Risk & Opportunities
- Risks: Market valuation compression, rising interest rates, increased competition, supply chain disruptions.
- Opportunities: E-commerce expansion, global market penetration, operational efficiencies, dividend growth.
Investment Outlook
Recommendation: Hold with a 12-24 month horizon. The stock's risk-reward profile appears favorable, with significant upside potential toward the high target (~$1225) if current momentum continues. The valuation remains high but supported by robust fundamentals and earnings growth.
The chart now reflects supports and resistance around the key targets:
- Support (Low): ~$620
- Mid: ~$1097.50
- Resistance (High): ~$1225